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Oct 4, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | October 4, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | October 4, 2024
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33:51
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. So, you're one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
0:10
This is Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, the Numbers Game where sports betting lives. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin in the hizzy. How you doing, man?
0:22
I'm doing well. Yeah? You've got that intro down pat now. That, that's solid.
0:26
Oh, because you had the, you had given me notes on it, and what you said was is that I said, "Where sports betting lives," after your name- Yeah, yeah...
0:33
and it made it sound like sports betting lives inside of your body. That, that, that's right. I was trying to get T-shirts made- No... of just "Kelly Bidlin, where sports betting lives." That's right.
0:40
I take notes very well. Yeah. [laughs] Thank you. Uh, off to another flying start, everybody. [laughs] Uh, it's Friday. That means football Friday. Let's go. Yes. Although we did a little, uh, flipperoo.
0:50
Am I allowed to call it that technical term? Mm-hmm. Uh, Chris Felica, uh, he has apparently another job that he does. Yeah, it is so important. At Fox Sports. Yeah. Uh, diva. Call him the total diva.
1:00
Anyway, we had to move him up, and then, uh, Paul Carr in his stead. So, the last hour will be Paul Carr on the global football, followed by Fezzik and Dr. Bob, and Felica will join us at this hour- That's right...
1:10
which is very kind of him. A little football and football. To squeeze us in. Yes. I like that. Uh, Jason Weingarten will also join us as well. Um, and, uh, so much to get to here right off the top, though.
1:20
Uh, our NFL bets as well on the show, of course, on a football Friday, as we head into week five of the National Football League, but let us begin with baseball yesterday, and a dramatic deciding game three.
1:32
You love best of three series, don't you, Bidlin? Ooh. The only wildcard round that, well, wildcard series that went to a third and deciding game, and man, was this unbelievable.
1:42
The Brewers, on the strength of two solo shots, take two to nothing lead late. Um, and then it gets to the ninth.
1:50
They got the, uh, two solo shots, I believe, in the seventh inning, and then the, uh, it gets to the ninth, and up with runners on first and third steps the polar bear, Pete Alonso, and oppo jack,
2:02
and the Mets add an insurance run and win it four to two.
2:05
The Mets, in the span of four days, hit a dramatic ninth-inning home run in Atlanta to, uh, make the playoffs, to clinch a playoff berth, when Francisco Lindor jacked a, uh, two-run shot there in Atlanta on Monday against the Braves in the first game of the doubleheader.
2:21
And then just, well, actually, three days later in Milwaukee in the decider, they get it done with that Pete Alonso, uh, Pete Alonso shot. And the Mets, the cardiac kids, are headed to take on the Phillies.
2:35
Every one of the, uh, quar- uh, every one of the division series begins tomorrow, a quadruple header. Uh, I did add the Padres series to my Royals series bets.
2:44
Those are my only two series bets thus far, and I, I don't think I'm gonna jump in on the other two pre-flop here. What were you smiling at? What were you about to say? No, just that, that, that game, it was nuts.
2:53
It was incredible. Like, it w- it was nuts. Like, the, the, the, I mean, the Brewers home runs back to back first.
2:58
Like, I mean, I was, we, we were joking a little bit about it on the show yesterday, but every Mets fan that I know, like it's the- Oh...
3:06
like you're trying to hold back text messages, but you're like, "This is cl-" Like, "Oh, Brewers out of nowhere, two guys I don't even know, just, like, back to back home runs." I was living it through Parleh.
3:15
Those poor guys. Oh, you mean, you mean Bowers and Frelick are not, uh- Yeah, exa- I, I, it was really nice of Milwaukee to pull two guys out of the stands- [laughs]... and let them participate in the game.
3:24
That was really nice. That was good. And I, I thought that's how the Mets were gonna go down, and then Alonso gets up there, and Gil, please answer me something, okay? Yes, yes. That ball leaves his bat.
3:34
How- Knew it instantly... how did Pete Alonso knew, know it instantly? Because when I saw, I'm like, "I don't know if that's gonna get out."
3:41
Oh, I think everybody who watches a lot of baseball, knowing his power and the way that it came off- Okay... his bat, I think everybody kind of knew it was gone.
3:49
Yeah, I feel like I'm the only one thinking that today, but I was like, "He made it over by, like, five feet." I just wanna say this, 'cause we're moving, we'll move on to football here, and I have a tennis play as well.
3:56
Um, how is it, and I know I'm not the first to say that, but how can you not be romantic about baseball? Oh, it's awesome. I, uh, again, football is my first love. It's the one I loved innately, right?
4:07
Sounds like that line's from a movie. Is it from a movie? It might be a m- it is, it is probably from a movie. Moneyball, Moneyball. [laughs] Yeah.
4:12
A- as Bob Costas, I, I said this with Crack yesterday, Bob Costas says, you know, "Football's a one-night stand. Baseball's a romance."
4:18
And I always sound corny when I talk about this, but I m- like, when, when San Francisco and the Giants were winning those three World Series at the beginning of last decade, there is nothing like going to play a postseason baseball, uh, w- and then you walk through the city.
4:33
I mean, it just makes the city bet- It's incredible. So, congratulations. I lived it through Parleh yesterday. Was texting with Jeff Parles, a, uh, Mets fan. He is heading back to game three- Ooh...
4:42
in Queens for game three of the, uh, Mets-Phillies series. And Paul Carr, who will join us to talk soccer, is a Royals fan. He will be attending game three in Kansas City in the Kansas City-Yankees series.
4:53
So, all of our people are, are going with their fanhood and going to these games. Now, that happened yesterday, as did football, the American version of football.
5:03
Um, and this was one of these things, I asked you that question yesterday, "Okay, which are you gonna watch?" With Amazon,
5:09
there is no seamless way to toggle back and forth if you only have one TV, so I headed to the sportsbook. Yeah. I was like, "Let me, let me just watch both of these."
5:18
Uh, what did you end up having your eyes on more in the end?
5:20
Well, uh, I got the two TVs set up, which, you know, b- before, before, before anybody wants to tweet at me, not a flex, because, uh, bring a woman into your place, and then they're like, "Why do you have two TVs?"
5:30
Like, that's the- [laughs]... like, yeah, it's not a flex. But I had the two going. I'm with you. That is what makes the apps difficult, though.
5:36
You can't, like, get out of the app, get back in real quick, so I had them both going.
5:40
But like I said on the show, my eyes just naturally gravitate towards football more, but I didn't miss, like, I, like, I missed all, I may, uh, or I caught all the big moments of the baseball game. They were incredible.
5:50
I'm with you. I would still take that baseball finish over what we got in the NFL yesterday. All I got out of that is women come to your home. [laughs] That's all I got out of it. Stopped listening after that.
5:59
Um, it's a, a special Numbers Game investigation right before our eyes. Yeah, it's like, all right. Um- There's, like, three that have ever said that, yeah. Uh, [laughs] okay, you should have stopped.
6:08
[laughs] Should have stopped before that sentence Um, I could not have been more wrong about this Thursday Night Football game. Uh, I went to the well one too many times.
6:16
I had been hitting the unders on these Thursday games. This almost went over in the first half- Yeah... and probably should have gone over in the first half. What a game. The Falcons beat the Buccaneers 36 to 30.
6:28
Can we just go over the last sequence of this? 'Cause this, I mean, it was just, I wanna get your thoughts on some of this. Uh, the score at this point, well, let's go, let's go 6:42 left in the game.
6:39
Atlanta has a third and six at the Tampa Bay 36. It's tw- it's 30 to 27, Buccaneers. 30 to 27, Buccaneers. 6:42 left in the game. Third and six for the Falcons at the Tampa Bay 36.
6:50
Mooney, Darnell Mooney just drops a would-be conversion from Kirk Cousins. After he had a huge game, is having a huge season.
6:58
Having a g- having a great game, and then Koo, Younghoe Koo, gets his 54-yard field goal try blocked by Javier Thomas, and it looks like Tampa Bay is in control.
7:07
Three-point lead with the ball, and then they matriculate, do the Bucs. They get it to first and 10 at the Atlanta 32 with 2:55 to go.
7:15
The Bucs are trying to seal the game, and then Bucky Irving gets stripped by Jessie Bates, and Caden Ellis recovers at the Atlanta 25, so you're like, "Okay. Wow, Atlanta from the dead."
7:26
But then Atlanta, um, they go nowhere on first down with the run, then Cousins gets sacked. They end up fourth and 15 at their own 20 with 1:52 left, all three of their timeouts. Let me ask you a question right here.
7:37
Mm-hmm. They're down three, fourth and 15, own 20, 1:52 left. Would you have punted there, or would you have gone for it? I would've punted probably. I was thinking about that. Uh, I don't, I don't think there's...
7:50
I don't think it's clear-cut one way or the other. I'm with you. But I- We didn't discuss this beforehand. I'm exactly with you. I, y- and you know me, I stay off Twitter. Yeah.
7:57
Was this a, was this a hot topic on Tw- I, I don't know if it- 'Cause I think I would've punted...
8:00
it was a hot topic in our text because Wishnev adamantly was going after Raheem Morris, saying, "Oh my God, the only play here is to punt."
8:08
And my pushback on it was I probably would've punted, but I don't think it was, like, the most egregious thing we've seen.
8:15
I, I, I also think I'd be stronger with my statement of they should've punted if I didn't see the rest of the game beforehand, right? Correct. Like, the offenses were moving at will. Correct.
8:24
It, it was a trade-off between, okay, we've been, we've been crushing them all day. It is fourth and 15, though, right? Mm-hmm.
8:29
It's the 15 yards that makes it dicey, but it's a trade between we get to go for it, um, so we have a shot.
8:37
We give ourselves a shot at, at, uh, at a conversion, but then we'll probably have to get a touchdown if we're fortunate enough to get the stop, versus we'll probably have to get a field goal. Right.
8:46
So that's, that's the calculus right there. Anyway, they go for it. Cousins is picked by Lavonte David, and that feels like ballgame again, right? Tampa Bay's gonna win this now. It's over.
8:55
Tampa Bay gets the ball with 1:44 left, again, up three, this time at the Atlanta 28, and then the refs on second down miss a face mask- Oh, God...
9:06
a clear face mask on the Falcons, but they catch a holding penalty in the same time on the Bucs. Mm-hmm. So that's brutal for the Buccaneers.
9:16
I know there's a lot of people who had the Falcons, were like, "Oh, we should've won it." Eh, could... There's a lot of things that happened in this game. Yeah, yeah, there was a lot here. Yep. A lot of things happened.
9:23
So that pushes the Bucs back. Second and long, by the way. Evans is open downfield. Baker doesn't see him, or he just wants to be conservative. Either way, eventually results in a punt of all things.
9:32
So Atlanta gets a reprieve.
9:34
They take over at their own 20 with 1:14 left and no timeouts, and five plays in, with 12 seconds left at the Tampa Bay 43, no timeouts left, Cousins to London for 14, which seemed like it was a little too long, but they get the spike in with one second left at the Tampa Bay 28.
9:51
What a, what execution by the Falcons and Kirk Cousins and all those players to get up there and just stop and s- and ha- snap that ball with one second left. Uh-oh, what's that face? It's the play of the game.
10:02
It's the play of the game. I agree. Spiking the ball was a pl- was the play of the game. And it was not controversial. It was absolutely- Yeah... with a second left. Um- I've never seen it run that well...
10:11
and then instead of a 47-yard field goal attempt, Atlanta, it's a delay of game. They don't even pay attention to the play clock, they're so, like, pumped about their spike. Well, play of the game.
10:21
They celebrated way too hard afterwards. So now it's a 52-yard field goal, but Younghoe Koo with, again, uh, this is the underrated part about Younghoe Koo. He has the shortest windup. Yes, yes.
10:31
It's like two and a half steps or something. Bang, right through the middle. We're going to overtime 30 to 30. Uh, Baker Mayfield calls tails. Tails fails, ladies and gentlemen. It's heads. Atlanta wins the toss.
10:42
They matriculate. Fourth play, first and 10 at the Tampa Bay 45. Drake London is hurt on the previous play, so KhaDarel Hodge comes in. Cousins sneaks it in to Hodge just past Zyon McCollum, who's trying to pick it.
10:55
Hodge sprints to the house. Touchdown, ballgame, 36-30 Falcons. What a football game. Who, and both of these teams won this game a couple times- Yeah... each.
11:06
Uh, Cousins 42 of 58 for a Falcons franchise record 509 yards, four touchdowns, one pick on the night that Matt Ryan was celebrated in Atlanta. Mm-hmm. By the way, what's the equivalent of Matt Ryan getting celebrated?
11:20
Like, Philip Rivers getting celebrated in San Diego or Carson Palmer getting celebrated in Cincinnati? Oh, like, Matt Ryan's b- bigger than that- Slightly... but slightly, yes. Yeah. London 12 for 154 and a touch.
11:33
Mooney nine for 105 and two touchdowns. 550 total yards for the Atlanta Falcons. What a game. It was great to see, great to see an offensive game, Gil, but oh boy, those defenses sucked.
11:44
Yeah, I couldn't have been more wrong about that one. I got a tennis play on the way and Paul Carr on the Premier League next on our Numbers Game at VSiN.
11:50
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12:04
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12:23
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12:37
Gil Alexander, always a joy to have in studio each and every Friday during this football season. A man who has navigated the F1 construction around town and, uh, drove here like a banshee.
12:48
I don't know how a banshee drives, but it's a good expression. Uh, it's Steve Fezzik, everybody, the only back-to-back winner of the Hilton Super Contest. You made it, Magellan.
12:55
I'm going to be the mayor of this town, and my one campaign promise, do away with F1. It will be a landslide. You do, in all seriousness, though, you are...
13:04
You want to find out, in the same way that you want to find out who was the person that didn't vote for Caitlin Clark for Rookie of the Year, you wanna find out who the politicians are by name who got greased for this, yes?
13:17
Well, Jim Gibbons, I think, is the head of the- the- the commission. But, I mean, here's a situation. I believe we're living in a democracy. I'm not sure. I- I think so. Yeah. I think... I- I'm... It's unclear.
13:27
I- At least, still. Yes... Gordon Gekko disagrees from Wall Street. Yeah. But
13:32
90%, I'm saying, I really think of the casino workers and those who live on the Strip that I ask, "If you could press the button, you're the decision-maker, would you have F1 back?" They... It- it's not just- No...
13:42
uh, it's unclear they're like, "Of course not." No. My... I live on the Strip. You hate it, right? Life is, life is...
13:47
I mean, again, it's- it's one of these things that when you say this, people like, y- you know, people hear you say that, they're like, "Oh, you live on the Strip? Boy, tough life," right? Mm.
13:55
Um, you choose to live on the Strip. I did, so I have to deal with whatever happens. Uh, I didn't know, none of us did, that the city would completely just allow them to run us over.
14:08
And how can the revenue from- from one great weekend make up for, like, s- eight weeks of misery- It can't... where people come here in October- It can't... and they're getting hit with surcharges, traffic jams.
14:17
It- it c- it cannot, but the construction companies are making millions by building bridges that they tear back down. Yeah. I- So it's creating jobs.
14:26
Where- where- where it, you know, where it manifests for me the most is I have a, you know, I- I kinda know my marks when I'm driving to work every morning.
14:32
I know I have to be here by this time, here by this time to be on time for work. And when I leave, they will often just say, "Well, you can't go that way anymore." Like, "You have to go the opposite direction." Mm-hmm.
14:41
I was like, "Oh, don't... We have lives here." They're like, "No. No, you don't." [laughs] "No, you don't. It's F1." Uh, you have a lot to talk about, as you always do, with the football, but you came in with a request.
14:50
You wanted to talk about Pete Rose for a second. Yeah, the greatness of Pete Rose.
14:52
You know, as old as I've gotten, so I grew up in southern Ohio and the Big Red Machine, so I'm- I'm- I'm somewhat biased, but Pete Rose is one of the most tremendous baseball players ever.
15:03
People are like, "Ah, he's the longevity, bunch of single hitters." No. So a couple- Yeah... points I would make. And over the past 100 years, what MLB player has hit the most doubles? Pete Rose. Exactly. Yeah.
15:15
There was one dude who was born in 1888 that's number one. So literally, and part of that reason, people are like, "Well, that's just because he- he got a lot of like... He hustled his way to second."
15:23
Yeah, when he would hit a ball in the gap short- short, he would, you know, go full steam instead of just cruising t- you know, to first.
15:30
Um, the Big Red Machine, losing the World Series 1970, losing the World Series 1972. Pete Rose is the MVP in '73. They lose to the Mets in five games despite Rose homering to win game four single-handedly.
15:43
Um, '75, the Reds are scuffling. It looks like they might never win a championship. They're 12 and 12 in May. Sparky Anderson comes to Rose, a two-time Gold Glove outfielder. Think about this. Yeah.
15:53
MVP, two-time Gold Glover, and says, "We gotta get Foster in the lineup. I wanna move you to third base." He spends the day having ground balls ricochet off his body like practicing. Mm-hmm.
16:05
Next day he's in the starting lineup. That grade A with Foster in left field and Vukovich out of third base and Rose playing third base, guess how many games when that lineup was intact that that team won?
16:16
Well, you asked me this all fair, so I'm not gonna, I'm not gonna guess 'cause I know the answer now, and I was startled by this. They went 64 and 16 over the next two years. That's an 800 win percentage.
16:27
That's not the best team of all time. I mean, it's by margin. That's... If you normalize that, um, over a, over a full season, that would be 130 wins. Yeah.
16:36
And here's a team with suspects starting pitching, the Jack Billinghams, Don Gullet and four days of frowning, basically. Don Gullet was the ace, Don Gullet was the good starter. Yeah. And you know what?
16:47
That was about it, you know? Yeah. And then, and then we w- we a- you know, Sparky would ask everyone to go five innings, and then the b- bring in the bullpen.
16:54
The cap- famously Captain Hook, Pete Rose invented the headfirst slide. He ran hard at all times around the bases, so he played the game- Even when he got walked... even when he walked.
17:05
He would Charlie Hustle his way- Yeah... to first base, and he made everyone else play harder because of it.
17:12
So, um- Mike Schmidt credits Pete Rose with getting him to be consistent on a game-by-game basis in Philly once he got over there. Before that, apparently Schmidt didn't take every game as seriously as the next. Hmm.
17:23
I guess is the interpretation of that. You know what's interesting is you're talking about the greatest home runs and- and these walk-up home runs are so rare, and they never turn the tide.
17:31
I'll make the case that the Tony Perez Game 7 home run, the greatest World Series ever, Red Sox-Reds, it's the sixth inning. The Reds are down 0-3, so Perez hits a two-run homer.
17:39
He doesn't hit that home run, the Reds lose that series, and they go on to never win another championship because they trade Perez at the end of the '76 season.
17:47
They would've traded him at the end of the '75 to shake things up. And after Perez, who was the heart and soul of that team, Mr. RBI, Mr.
17:54
Clutch, um, they would've gone down as the greatest hitting team to never win nothing. Yeah. Instead, they won it all in '75 against the Red Sox. They won it all in '76. Swept the Yankees. Swept the Yankees.
18:05
Um, and then Perez got traded, and obviously the '75 series, the- the most iconic image from that series is, uh, Carlton Fisk hitting the game-winning home run at Fenway in Game 6 that forced that Game 7.
18:17
So Stevie Twitter had a moment. Yeah. Carlton... I see Carlton Fisk at Tahoe in the celebrity tournament, and he hits a horrific-... hook, all right? Uh-huh. And I start yelling, "Stay fair!" [laughs] "Stay fair!"
18:28
Did he get it? And he's glaring at me- [laughs] That's great... as the ball goes out of bounds. [laughs] Two questions, why are you such a big Reds fan? Why were you such a big Reds fan? Did you grow up there?
18:36
Yeah, Dayton, Ohio. Oh, you did, right down I-75. So that's right, Dayton, Ohio. 50 miles, so straight A tickets. I barely qualified. Okay. And sat in the green seats and watched the Reds- And then-...
18:44
six times a year... and then number two, you're so well-dressed this morning. What do we owe this to? My wife. Oh. So my wife has... And Bill Ad. So I was talking to Bill- [laughs]... and I was like, I- who
18:54
twisted my arm to go to the Legacy Club, the greatest experience in all of Las Vegas, on the 60th floor overlooking the entire valley, and we were discussing, like, how Dress for Success and the hosts and how if I'm a little groggy on a Friday morning, well, if I dress up, I'll, I'll get favorable rounding.
19:11
There's this, uh, tweet from Bobby Knuckles, "Is Fezzik going to pass out buttons in the studio? 'A vote for Fezzik is a vote against F1. A one-issue candidate.'"
19:19
[laughs] Yes, you would absolutely be a one-issue candidate.
19:22
You know, I'm not, not only am I, like, voting for, like, anti-F1, but I am voting for a college football champion too, and I'm voting for, you know, Chris "The Bear" Fallica. So yes. Okay, let's, let's talk about that.
19:32
You, you were listening, and you love what he gave out. Oh, so Blue Horseshoe loves Georgia to win the championship. Chris Fallica comes on, and he gives you these Easter eggs on things to bet, okay?
19:43
And he kinda like, "Yeah, Georgia." So think about this. Georgia's going to make the championship. We didn't d- we're not adjusting Georgia's, uh, power rating based upon a coin flip loss on the road to Alabama.
19:55
Hey, there's only four teams basically, four and a half, that can win this championship and throw a blanket over them. You know, Alabama and Georgia, Texas, Ohio State, and maybe Oregon, all right? Mm-hmm.
20:08
So if they're g- throw Oregon in, fine. There's five even teams.
20:12
Well, every one of them should be four to one, but they're not all four to one because there's other pretenders that they have odds on, and Ohio State and Texas just because of the vagaries of which way the wind has been blowing and the schedule that they're, like, three to one and plus 325.
20:25
So, uh, right now, DraftKings, Georgia plus 650. Think about that prop that the South Point put up to start the year. Will Georgia or Ohio State win the championship? Even money. Pick them, all right? Mm-hmm.
20:36
That implies if they're equal, both Ohio State and Georgia, 50/50 chance, you know, one of those will win, meaning there's a 25% chance, um, each individual team will win.
20:47
I don't see m- much as having changed, so if I've got a team that's gonna win 25% of the time, I know they had a bad game against Kentucky. Um- Is there a better bet in sports betting right now than this?
20:57
Yeah, the Con- Connecticut back, uh, $80 fine. [laughs] Connecticut to win the NCAA championship, it, but it's eerily reminiscent, right?
21:04
Remember, it's obvious Connecticut was the best team, and you could bet them at, like, p- plus 450. I'll make the case I still think Georgia's the best team, and you can get them plus 650. Do it now.
21:15
Georgia plus 650, and you're talking UConn to win the next NCAA championship? No, the last one. The last, oh, the last one. The last one. The market was, it, it became obvious- Yeah...
21:22
all of a sudden that, that I, I, I really firmly believe that within the next- Yeah... month it's gonna become obvious Georgia's the best team. Yeah, okay. Plus 650, available at DraftKings. Always shop around for these.
21:32
Thank you, Bear. Uh, the, the other thing that you, uh, liked, what Chris talked about, was the weather in the Northwestern game. Yeah, so I went to Northwestern, so I know that Lakefill.
21:40
I used to run on that Lakefill, and it's a wind tunnel. So, like, pulling back the curtain, people are like, "What's the best game to live wager?" It's never a dome game. It's always an outdoor game with weather.
21:50
So the Viking game in Tottenham would, you know, would qualify because we're really not sure- Yeah... what the field conditions are gonna be like, and same with the wind.
21:57
If we get a situation with the, with, with the way that field is configured with hardly any stands open, um, to the wind, and the wind is not a t- if it's a tailwind, it's gonna benefit whoever's getting the ball in that particular quarter.
22:10
Advantage live wagering. If it's a crosswind, it's gonna crush the offenses, and you wanna play under, so, um, that's the game you wanna be live wagering in on Saturday.
22:20
Yeah, Fallica gave a pre-flop Indiana-Northwestern under 42 in that game. Uh, Northwestern grad, Bill Ad, also a Northwestern grad. I'm sure you guys have, uh, connected on that as well.
22:31
Yeah, he was down in the south quads having fun while I was in the, in tech doing physics experiments. Little Northwestern inside knowledge there from Stevie. Physics experiments.
22:40
[laughs] Ah, the ladies must have loved you, Stevie. Yeah, they didn't. More Fezzik on the other side. His thoughts on week five, maybe week six, who knows, in the National Football League. That's next.
22:49
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23:05
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23:15
Use promo code VSiN200 to claim a 20% rebate for your first 60 days, up to $200. Head to firstbet.com today. Skill Alexander, Steve Fezzik, @FezzikSports, by the way, on Twitter, but I, uh, I caution you.
23:31
He's a, he's a terribly ornery person on Fezzik Sports. Get off my lawn. Yeah, totally. No, it's worse than that, Stevie. It's worse than that. But anyway, that's where he is on Twitter- Oh... in case you had to know.
23:41
Um, mayoral candidate Steve Fezzik. [laughs] Uh, a one-issue candidate, as we found out today. Would you, by the way, would you ever consider doing that? Oh, no.
23:50
Okay, I was just gonna, I was gonna say, 'cause you seemed a little excited there for a second. I, I just, it frustrates me when something's obvious, and like 20 years from now w- we, we'll, we'll be writing about- Oh...
24:01
about what went on and how- Yes... who g- who got what to make this transpire and what a terrible thing it was- Mm-hmm... and yet we can't, we're too close to the sun that we can't see it as it's happening.
24:11
Oh, some people can see it. They just don't wanna talk about it. You have a, uh, as, as your first act as a mayoral candidate, you wanna give away a secret, uh, barbecue spot.
24:20
Okay, so the secret sushi spot will remain undisclosed. However Ellis Island, locals' favorite here. Yeah. They have a great barbecue. You always hear- Cova Lane... it- Cova Lane, Co- be a- [laughs] Cova and Flamingo.
24:33
Get there quick because- [laughs]... it's gonna be inaccessible- [laughs]... within a, a month with this F1 coming. But that- That's how, that's how my cousin Itzik pronounces it. He goes, "Cova Lane."
24:41
[laughs] Cova Lane. Yeah, yeah. And they, all the restaurants are fantastic. They cater to the locals.
24:46
You say you can't get a deal in Vegas, for $18.95 you can get a full rack of ribs or ribs and chicken, and you get the little players card, and they always have like $3 off and, and the like. So, like literally- Oh...
24:58
you can feed a family for 40 bucks with that barbecue. Okay. There it is. And it's really good. Uh, who wouldn't vote for this guy? He's giving away secret spots. Uh, okay.
25:06
Before we do your thoughts on a couple games this weekend, uh, it's become a little bit of a staple here when you join us to talk about a game in the forthcoming week. Yes. So week six, what do you have?
25:16
So let's go week six, and we're gonna go San Fran at Seattle, all right? And so when you're price- when you're looking for a house to buy, you look for comps, okay? I'm gonna make an easy case for why Seattle plus three.
25:27
Go. Go on Seattle plus three. [laughs] We are betting Seattle. Lock it up. Um- Oh... that's famously my Right Angle Sports, they, they, they, they have their setup- We do it on the show sometimes.
25:37
We're like- They set it up and- Yeah... and then they go. And, and every now and then they go, "Opposite. We are going opp- but we are not going opposite, we are betting Seattle."
25:43
So just last week, and there were some sharp guys- Do they do oppo also? I didn't know they were doing that. Oh, yes. Okay. They gotta keep, people jump the gun, Gil. People- Okay. I just thought they did cancel.
25:51
I didn't know they did oppo... they go set it up, and there's some people, some devious people out there who actually- [laughs]... believe it or not, bet before the go is given.
25:57
Um, s- last week, Seattle was playing Detroit. All right? Now, Detroit and San Francisco, they're not far apart. They're fairly comparable teams. I do have the Niners better by only by half a point, okay?
26:08
So they're in the, completely in the same neighborhood. Last week, Seattle was on the road at Detroit, and they were catching three and a half for most of the week, okay?
26:16
Now, this week, they're, w- week six, they are home, and they were catching three and a half at the open. So how can that be? You know, I mean, you're changing the venue. Seattle's a huge home field.
26:27
Detroit has a big home field. So why would we bet Seattle week four?
26:31
Why'd, why would anyone have bet Seattle week four when they're on the road catching three and a half, when you can get them at home and get plus three? The, the answer is you shouldn't.
26:38
So my power ratings make it just below three, and, uh, s- solid value for a Seattle team that although they got blown out and couldn't stop Detroit at all, they just play tremendously on offense. So Seattle, week six.
26:52
Yes. Stevie's look ahead play of the week. We should sponsor this. Stevie's look ahead play of the week. All right. Then week five, what is, uh, right in front of us, you like a couple games above all.
27:03
Yeah, so w- I, I've been known to be the great aggregator. What do I mean by that? It's like- [laughs]... I, I wanna know who everyone likes and why, okay?
27:11
And when the aggregations line up, they align, like the planets- Yeah... that's the time I like, I like to- Is, can we just, can I just go on record?
27:18
You and I have had many conversations about this, uh, in our, uh, off air, where we don't see eye to eye on the whole aggregation thing necessarily, right? Yes. Okay. Just wanna be on the record.
27:27
Famously, I used to give out, select some of Gilley's baseball plays- Yeah... between- I, I didn't appreciate that at the time... 10 years ago. You- Yeah... you did, you did very well, though. Yeah. Well, thank you.
27:35
You know, I have a fiduciary responsibility to my clients to give the best- How is-... betting information... how is this okay? [laughs] Anyway, go ahead, Mr. Aggregator.
27:43
Well, but, but the point, the, the key is- Yeah... I'm not just, like, taking someone's plays. Right. I mean, I'm ta- I'm getting all the info. Like, I, I like, like The Bear. The Bear likes Georgia plus 650. Right.
27:51
He originated that, but his... I, I concur completely with the logic. As long as you give attribution, as long as you give attribution, it's not a problem. Yes. But are... You, you're an aggregator.
28:00
I'm not sure if you're an attributor. All right. Well, I- [laughs]... always listen to certain guys, pioneers of- Okay. [laughs] There you go... um- Pioneer might be coming up... razor's, razor-sharp people in- Okay...
28:11
rad, sharp people in the marketplace. Okay. And I, I, I, and so, and I oftentimes disagree, and I'll go the opposite- Yes, you will... perhaps, especially after a line move.
28:19
Um, but there's two games that line up absolutely for me. Uh, Carolina, Chicago. So Chicago minus four, widely available at every s- you can even lay a three and a half.
28:28
Uh, I make this game five, but my gut says, boy, Carolina, they got that dead cat bounce, you know, where the red rifle took over.
28:37
Terrible defense, completely injured, and I refuse to believe the offense is gonna be anything but slightly below average. And the Bears are a good team with a bad quarterback.
28:47
And I hate backing a bad quarterback, but this is a case, just don't turn the ball over, Caleb, and, and they should be fine. And I've been working the past year with Dr. Chow and his folks.
28:57
So I get, I get all their SIC industry scores, their, their injury reports, and I'm like, "Simplify for it. M- just give me a number." And 90, if you're north of 90, you're a very healthy team.
29:06
If you're south of 80, you're an injured team. And in this case, Chicago's a 92, and Carolina's a 75. So Chicago is healthy. Carolina's injured, mostly on the defensive side. I'm on the Bears.
29:18
Okay, couple, couple follows to that. One, you are convinced Caleb Williams, I'm not disagreeing, but you are convinced Caleb Williams is not good.
29:25
Oh, I'm, yeah, I, I don't know if he'll be good in three years, but he's- But now he's not... oh, he's not good right now. For sure not now.
29:29
Yeah, and I have my, I have my quarterback ratings, and I don't have to go very far. Ah, I am last in the league. 32nd best starting- You have him dead last. Yes. Bryce Young is not on that list, I would assume. No.
29:40
Yeah. He's been relegated to part, to, um, a CFL. Who, who's second to last on there? Uh, Jacoby Brisset. Okay. Where does Anthony Richardson fall? Third worst. Third worst. [laughs] Okay. Actually.
29:50
[laughs] I was waiting on- Actually- I could've done this for a while before- Yes. [laughs]... we got to Anthony Richardson. I was like, "Okay, thank you." Um, the other thing about it is your guy, Dr.
29:56
Chow, did you see him front row, right behind home plate in the Padres game the other night? Is that right? I texted him. I said, "Put down your phone and watch the game." Oh, uh-oh.
30:04
Well, he's, he's, it, again, he's got a fiduciary responsibility to his clients to do the very best and, uh, be constantly monitoring the injuries. Watch the damn game, man.
30:13
[laughs] All right, and the other one, I'm actually kinda pumped that you're, we're on the same side in this one. Uh, we're on the Packers here, minus three against the Rams, and when I gave this out last hour,
30:25
I prefaced it by saying, "I feel like I'm making a square ball pick of the week with this," because it seems to me like everybody, the too cool for school crowd is like, "Oh, this is a perfect spot for the Rams.
30:36
Everybody's b-" You know, I don't know what the rationale was. I'm on the Packers. I just think they're a better football team, and obviously the Rams have injuries still. E- exactly, right. And, and Dr.
30:45
Chao's folks, the actual numbers, the Rams are a 79. The- anything north of 80 is bad. Packers are fairly healthy at 89, so 10-point differential, that's good on the Packers.
30:54
I make the Packers five points better in my power ratings. Let's go to home field. Well, Green Bay has to fly all the way out to LA, as do all of their fans- [laughs] That's right...
31:02
because they're gonna take over southern Ca- that, that SoCal, um, stadium. It'll be 60% Green Bay fans. Um, and Frank, I'm gonna make the case Green Bay's gonna win the Super Bowl this year, all right? So- Wow...
31:15
Green Bay obviously love- I thought I was high on them. It, but, so I don't have them my number one team, but I think they, they could easily be that- Yeah...
31:22
by the end of the year because Love is gonna keep getting, you know, healthier. They won two games with a, a bad third-string quarterback. So they're two and two. Mm-hmm.
31:32
Every other team that has to play b- with a bad third-string quarterback, like the Miami Dolphins, like, they can't score at all.
31:37
And the two games they lost, I guess we look back at the Philly game a little differently now, but it felt like, at least at the time, and certainly the game they lost this week, there was no real shame in them. Yes.
31:47
Yeah. Yes. Um, and, a- and, and Philly had their wide receivers, you know. Yes. They hadn't been injured yet. Um, if you're a go old s- old school pioneer, um, handicapping yards per play, Bob famously invented this.
31:58
He did. Um- Dr. Bob, the, the, the first guy to talk yards per play. That's right. So if you like, if you like YPP, uh, you're gonna love Green Bay because they're, th- every play that's run, they're like plus one.
32:09
They, they, one yard. Whereas every play that's run, the Rams are like minus one, so it's like a two-yard yard per play difference, and Green Bay has that despite having a horrific quarterback in half their games.
32:19
So that's, you know, just outstanding. Um, the, you know, it's funny, we always talk about who invented what, and the like. Like I, I like to say I invented the decimal point, you know, in terms of the points spread.
32:29
Right. Yeah. I always say the line's 2.75, but last night's game, the Atlanta game- [laughs]... I was thinking, Gil Alexander, you gotta copyright this Plinko thing, man. Plinko, yeah.
32:36
I mean, it, it is, it was Plinko 101. I have to mention, 36-30, I don't think I've ever seen this, largest lead of the game, seven points, and no team scored three consecutive times. Imagine this. Oh, wow.
32:48
The, the, the, the, the Sharps love betting three straight scores, yes, minus 150. Here's a game that had 66 points, nonstop scoring- Yeah... and nobody ever scored three in a row.
32:59
That's al- that's always the Super Bowl prop I cite as the one that flummoxes new bettors the most, right?
33:03
W- because the, yeah, now you can play it in, in more than just the Super Bowl, but back in the day, it was always just the Super Bowl.
33:08
Will a team score three times in a row, not including extra points, uh, or two-point conversions? And the average new bettor would be like, "Oh my God, they're two great teams.
33:17
Of course no one's gonna score three points. This is completely mispriced." But it, it always happens. And the poster child of it is the low-scoring Super Bowl, Tennessee-Rams.
33:24
Close game, low-scoring, both teams scored three consecutive times. Scored three consecutive times. Stevie, always a pleasure. Thank you, sir. Let's go Packers. One issue mayoral candidate.
33:35
Are you betting the Packers to win the Super Bowl? Yeah. Is that what you said? Uh, Packers j- just yes to make the playoffs, plus 120. That's a bonus pick. That's available at DraftKings. Okay.
33:42
You walked it back a little bit there for a second. [laughs] Uh, thank you, Steve. Dr. Bob, the aforementioned Dr. Bob, next right here on The Numbers Game.
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