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Sep 11, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2024
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45:32
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story, they always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
0:10
This is Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. Everybody taking us in, we appreciate it.
0:17
It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin, where sports betting lives, from Circa, the mothership right here at downtown Las Vegas. Uh, Kelly, good morning, sir. What is going on with the sky?
0:28
Well, [laughs] oh, you mean like the, uh, the sandstorm that's going on outside? Is that what that is? I have no idea. I have no idea. Did you notice there was a haze of something? Uh, y- you know, yes, I noticed.
0:36
Yes, I meant to text you about it. I, no, we did not talk about this pre-show [laughs] obviously. No. The, uh...
0:41
[laughs] I meant to text you about it 'cause it's another great example of how terrible I am at checking any type of weather things here in Vegas. I did the same thing.
0:48
I looked, I was like, "Is this, is this real clouds or is this something?" It's something- But-... because it s- s- shows, pardon me, sunshine all day long. Okay. So it is a s- is it a sandstorm or fire?
0:58
Uh, it's probably, it's probably wind just kicking up sand. Or wind moving- Or maybe it's fire, I don't know. This is so bad. That's your Doppler- When it-... radar forecast... I mean, when it rains like- Sorry...
1:06
five days a year out here- Right, it's, like-... like, it, you don't get in the habit of checking weather apps very often. At all, but there is a strange haze over the city. Yeah. Um, did you watch the debate last night?
1:16
Did you? I did. I did watch most of it. Oh, did you really? I did watch most of it. I mean, it was pretty- If you- It was pretty lengthy. A lot of it was repeated, you know?
1:23
If you, if you didn't like Kelly Bidlin on weather, now you get Kelly Bidlin- [laughs]... on politics. Um, you, you, I'm very proud of you for watching most of that. No, thank you. Good for you. Thank you. Yeah.
1:31
Well, your civic duty was performed. That's right. Well done. I, yeah, w- was it on TV, too, and I went back and forth a lot? Yeah, because, you know, there's a lot of rep- uh, repetition, uh, of their points.
1:41
Oh, you f- Like, I get it... you find the candidates repetitious? [laughs] Yes, I do. Yes. [laughs] I don't know if you've ever seen a debate before.
1:46
[laughs] Um, it was, it was interesting from a, uh, again, a betting line standpoint.
1:50
Again, we talk about the election here apolitically speaking, but I think, I think the biggest takeaway from it last night was that the moderator from ABC News, David Muir, was sort of the central figure- Yeah...
2:01
of this debate. And if you are a Trump supporter, the, the sort of most common reaction was, "Oh, he, he only challenged former President Trump.
2:12
He didn't challenge Vice President Harris at all, and so it was a, a skewed debate." That was the average Trump supporter reaction.
2:19
I think the, the person that w- is supporting Vice President Harris, their reaction, unlike the previous one between former President Trump and President Biden, where nothing was challenged by moderators on CNN- Yeah...
2:33
I think th- their position was, well, uh, you know, if Kelly Bidlin says to me, "Gil, uh, y- you're eating, uh, cats and dogs in a certain city," that a moderator should be allowed to sort of challenge that comment- To, uh-...
2:45
and say-... to clear up the facts... and say local officials, just so everyone knows, have found that no pets have been harmed in the process.
2:51
So, so that was, that was an interesting reaction, that it was a much more, uh, sort of proactive response from the moderators.
2:57
And as far as the betting lines are concerned, and we will talk about this, we're less than two months from now until the election, uh, before the debate at BetMGM Ontario, where apparently they're allowed to take, uh, bets on the American election north of the border, we love you GamePlus, uh, it was minus 135 on Trump, plus 110 on Kamala Harris prior to the debate.
3:19
After the debate, it had gone f- to, uh, former President Trump minus 120, Vice President Harris minus 110, and this morning that has flipped to Vice President Harris being minus 120 and former President Trump being minus 110.
3:33
So for those who are interested in, in that kind of thing, that's where that is after the debate that Kelly Bidlin watched. How did you- That's right. Yeah, I mean, I think no surprise there on the odds move, right?
3:42
No, I don't think so. Yeah. How many debates have you watched in your young life? I mean, I'd like to think, well, I mean, well, well, you know, I don't appreciate- [laughs]... this line of questioning, okay?
3:51
So what, what do you mean? And, uh- Am I suggesting something? [laughs] Yeah, I feel like you're suggesting something.
3:56
And, uh, you know, if there was a random NBA regular season basketball game on last night- Yeah, no... would I, would it have- No, of course not... would it have made the screen?
4:02
Probably not, but, uh- If there, if there was a Mech game last night... you know what, Gil? I'd like to think that I watched most of all of them, okay? Okay. But, but I'm v- I'm very truthful about last night.
4:12
Like, come on. I know. As, as soon as I hear the, the same point brought up the fifth time, I'm like, "And mute TV too, and turn up volume TV." What?
4:19
[laughs] What is the, what is the lowest level sporting event you would have watched over that? A matching game? Oh, yeah, for sure. For sure. I mean, CFL without a doubt I would- CFL you would watch over? Oh, of course.
4:29
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Oh, that's just un-American right there. Give me a, give me a great, uh, Ottawa Red Blacks game. Uh, yeah, absolutely. For sure. Sure. Yeah. A little Alouettes and the Argonauts, that kind of thing?
4:37
Yeah, Alouettes, yeah. Okay. Um, you know, I got a, uh, a tweet yesterday from somebody who was talking about the Megapod.
4:43
By the way, beating the book Megapod, which tremendous response and, and downloads the first one again.
4:48
I'm always humbled by the response to that show, and just, and in Guessing Lines as well, which airs here, and then we put it in podcast form. That's even, um, more awesome from everybody who listens.
4:59
They're loyal for 14 years now doing these. Uh, Joe Peta, by the way, Joe Peta will be the guest on this week's Megapod.
5:06
But someone, uh, I think correctly, I wanna say it was, uh, it was our buddy, uh, you know, um, Jordan, was it, what was his name? I wanna say, oh, is that your, uh, was that your real name?
5:15
Anyway, he, he said, um, on Twitter, "Hey, could you, in the middle of the Megapod, could you r- run back the picks?" Mm-hmm. 'Cause you guys go off on some tangents- Yeah...
5:24
and so it's, I might not get to them, and so I just need a recap. We like to do it on this show.
5:29
We, we remind ourselves, Kelly and I do, that once we do Guessing Lines and we give the picks, we don't often come back to our picks until Friday. Yeah. And we don't wanna do that.
5:39
Well, and I, I th- I think especially for you, right? 'Cause a lot of times I've made bets on Sunday- Yeah...
5:44
for, on off of openers, and we're doing Guessing Lines, but I know it's, as you're [laughs] going through it, it's, "Oh, hey, that number's way off." I put 'em in right afterwards. It's probably gonna be a bet for me.
5:52
Yeah. So yeah, yeah, we us- we'll usually try to do it on Tuesdays, but we're here on Wednesday doing it. Um, I feel like a complete square ball this week. Is that allowed?
5:59
[laughs] Hey, Kelly and the Square Bears, hop on board, buddy. I feel completely like a square ball.
6:03
These, these are the plays that I have made, and this is all based on our sort of our Guessing Lines, uh, exercise, which again, the point is it's sort of an interactive thing.
6:10
You sh- you know, hopefully you're doing your own guessing lines while we're doing it, and the point of that is to sort of extract value. But I ended up With four favorites, which I don't ever like that.
6:22
One of which is, and I wanted to get in, and, and one of them is worse, uh, uh, one, one of my plays is worse than what it's available at now.
6:28
But what I ended up with was, um, the four that I sent you, which was, I took Miami, right? 'Cause I thought Miami being under three, and they were what they were, one at the time.
6:39
Let me get s- I'm gonna get the exact lines that I bet, 'cause I don't wanna, wanna make up, so I'm calling it right now. But it's, I think I got it one or one and a half. Um, let me make sure. Yes.
6:48
And so now it's two or two and a half on that. So, um, yeah, one and a half is where I got the Miami Dolphins against the Buffalo Bills. Again, that's Thursday night.
6:56
I didn't think there was any justification, um, for that being under three. I know there's a lot of people who said, "Of course it should be under three." Well, I don't see it that way.
7:03
Uh, Miami minus one and a half was where I got that at. It's about two consensus now. I got the Ravens at nine and a half at minus 115, 'cause I f- I figured this is going to 10, so let me grab it before it gets to 10.
7:15
I think- Oh, I'm gonna pause you right there. Yes. Interesting thing going on in the market with this today. Yes. [laughs] It's, like, almost blanketed nine and a halfs yesterday. We have 10s, but we also have nines.
7:27
[laughs] Where are the nines? There's, uh, Circa's got nine, DraftKings got nine. Okay. There you go. Uh, we've got, let's see, a couple s- couple offshores with 10. Station's [laughs] got 10.
7:37
South Point's got nine and a half. So we're scattered throughout. I, I, I guess we should mention Lamar Jackson, but I don't really know that I'm reading into that at all. I'm not. Mispracticed on Monday. Yep.
7:47
The d- I, if it's not in his actual contract, at this point it's just gotta be an understanding between him and Harbaugh that he's, uh, he's gonna regularly take some practices off. Practice optional?
7:57
Yes, practice is optional. Um, so I got the Ravens at minus nine and a half 'cause I think they're gonna absolutely roll the Raiders.
8:02
This, this feels like one of those typical Ravens home games where they just beat up on somebody- Yeah... and win by 30. Anyway, that's what I'm going with. I completely agree.
8:12
I, I was s- I was a little stunned yesterday with Drew. Drew and I were oppo on everything. Yeah. I was a little stunned when he said he was on the Raiders. Yeah.
8:20
Um, now this is, this one I got at a worse number than currently exists. I got the Cowboys at minus six and a half. I thought that was gonna go to seven against the Saints.
8:29
Nope, it's six a lot of places now on the Cowboys. Uh, o- only a couple that I'm seeing out there. Oh, okay. Mainly six and a half. Okay. Well- If, wow, that's a good point, though. If this goes,
8:39
I mean, if it's five and a half, I'm definitely on the Cowboys side. At six, though, even I gotta think about that. I just, I don't know. What we know, I don't...
8:47
Did we learn anything about the Saints against the Panthers? Not, not, not at all.
8:49
I don't wanna not give them credit, but at the same time, I just think, you know, that's part of, if, if you step back and you think about, uh, what these two teams foot, what these two football teams did.
8:58
By the way, there's a lot of, you know, listen, there's a lot of Deshaun Watson hate after his performance week one. I know there's off the field stuff that create hate as well, but as far as his performance- Mm...
9:08
on the field, there's a lot of hate about that. But he did play the Dallas Cowboys- Yeah... defense, um, which is filled with, with players and filled with so much talent.
9:18
So, like, I don't, you know, for everything I don't wanna overreact, and for me, the Cowboys are, are a way more talented team than the, than the Saints are.
9:25
So l- like, let's just, I think both those teams, Saints and Cowboys, right? Did they probably get a bump by, you know, oddsmakers, a lot of bet, betters out there, just a lot of casual betters out there?
9:35
Yeah, they probably got a bump after week one, each of them, right? Saints absolutely dismantling the Panthers, and then the Cowboys going into Cleveland and picking up that win. But I think you kinda hit on it.
9:44
What is more sustainable? What do you actually trust in being more real in what you saw? And it's more to the Cowboys than the Saints to me. Yeah. So I, I don't, I don't disagree with that play at all.
9:53
The other one I grabbed, 'cause people, people are convinced I hate the Lions. Remember last year I would never power rank- Yeah, yeah, yeah... the Lions above, like, eight or nine at the end? You hate 'em, yep.
10:00
[laughs] Yeah, I hate the L- I hate the Lions. Here's who I hate according to people. I hate the Lions. I hate the Bills. I love this. Um, I got the Lions. Every tennis player not named Dega.
10:09
[laughs] E- every tennis player not named Dega, hate them, too. That's right. I got the Lions minus seven against the Buccaneers.
10:16
I think, you know, Todd Wright, our buddy, um, who used to come on, uh, our show regularly, talk fantasy with us, Todd Wright, the greatest- Mm...
10:22
sports radio, uh, host there ever was, in my opinion, when he did Up All Night with Todd Wright over at ESPN Radio. He said to me before that Lions-Rams game, Sunday night, he had mentioned this off-season.
10:33
He goes, he thinks the winner of that Lions-Rams game is going to host the NFC Championship against that same opponent. Interesting. Okay. And so the Lions end up winning this.
10:42
Um, we'll do our power rankings tomorrow, I believe. Um, we'll see. I think I, I think I have the Lions higher than ever before, Lions people who think I hate the Lions.
10:51
Uh, but I got them, uh, minus seven here against the Buccaneers, who similarly, uh, with the Saints, I don't know that we learned anything from one week.
10:59
Again, I'm fighting recency, I'm fighting the general consensus recency bias on this stuff.
11:04
Just because Baker Mayfield went 24 of 30 against the sieve of a Washington defense, who was no account, no tackling, no covering, no nothing, no talent, uh, I don't think the Bucs are necessarily great.
11:16
Now, they may cover, and I may be wrong here, but as far as, uh, my f- my feelings on it right now, those four bets were made. Yeah, this is, uh- All favorites. I don't like that, though.
11:24
I'm kinda looking at the over in that game, even though it keeps, it keeps rising, so I s- probably shoulda bet it already. You've got major, major Tampa Bay cluster injuries in that secondary- Yep...
11:34
so that is gonna be a big t- big time advantage for Detroit. Like the Cowboys on turf, like the Lions on turf, like all that. Uh, we'll come back. Some baseball. Mark Borchardt, base winner on the other side.
11:44
It's the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:01
Back on the Numbers Game live from Circa. Skill Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin. By the way, we never say our, uh, Twitter handles. You notice that? No, we don't. We just throw 'em on the screen.
12:09
Um- Yeah, they're, they're always on there if you're watching. I guess I say @beatthebook when I read the tweets all the time. Yeah. But, uh, Kelly Bidlin is at, uh, is strangely not at Kelly Biddly.
12:17
It's at Kelly Bidlin. [laughs]Uh, he spells his name E-Y-K-E-L-L-E-Y B-Y-D-L-O-N Yeah. It was not that for a long time. Do you remember the primetime action night- I do...
12:27
when, when Matt- And we gave you so much Matt specifically Yeah, I was gonna say, Matt discovered it was free. Yeah. Mm-hmm Um, and then was, was, was...
12:34
I don't think he was gonna leave that night until I, until I- Chase... grabbed the username. Yeah Well, because he has, uh, because he has the name Matt Brown- Yeah...
12:42
and there's roughly five bajillion Matt Browns, he couldn't believe that you wouldn't take advantage of having your own name. Oh, yeah. @mattbrownm2, right? Yeah.
12:49
I know, and so from producing here for years, I know way too much about people's emails and Twitter handles, uh, at this network.
12:56
His email, though, I can't remember, 'cause there's so, there's so many [laughs] letters going on. Oh, uh, speaking of Mateo Brown, uh, he will be on- He's on next, right? Yeah... he will be on with Stormy today.
13:04
How about that? There we go. The band is back together. Yeah. Hopefully she won't, uh, have him eating chips that will put him near death. Do you remember that? Oh my gosh, yeah.
13:12
Um, also I'm supposed to- What was, what was that segment called? Bets or consequences? Something like that, right? Bets or consequences, and apparently Matt had to eat one of these ch- Yeah...
13:20
tortilla chips that is designed to, like, kill you. Yeah, it was like, you know, the thing going around on the internet like- Yeah... two years ago with those- Right... chips that killed like... I, yeah. Yeah.
13:28
That had people dying basically. Matt almost perished. Yeah. Like, for real. He did. He almost died. Uh, I'm also supposed to hang out with Matt Brown today because there's a Challenger tennis tournament in Vegas.
13:37
You were telling me this. Where are they playing this at? At Darling. So I'm gonna go bet low-level tennis. Nice. [laughs] That, it, tennis is one of the best sports, though- Oh, man... to bet while you're there.
13:47
I love it. Like, while you're in attendance. Ah, it's so good. But you gotta, you can't heckle though, 'cause then they'll, the ump will get mad at you.
13:53
I'm actually trying to think if there's another sport I like to bet more when I'm in attendance. I think tennis might be number one. Really? Yeah, just live betting when you know the action's right in front of you.
14:03
Kelly Billen watches the Bates, likes to bet live tennis. Um- Delray, Delray Beach Open? Oh, man. Oh, Delray. So many days just lay... Yeah, just- Delray Beach Open... few cocktails in me, just spread out, so much room.
14:13
No. Middle of the day. You had a drink? No. No, well, it's so great, Gil, 'cause you can walk to the bars, and then the beach, you know? It's a really great location. We do get tweets. Cowboys_Cubs1, "I'm sorry.
14:23
The level of hate in your first segment, uh, Kelly Bin Laden's hate for America, and Gil's hate for the Bills and Lions has me thinking you both need a hug. I love you mothers," he said. "Have a love-filled day."
14:32
[laughs] Um, Jed O'Connor, "Have you tell, have you two found yourself leaning a lot towards favorites this weekend?" Yeah. "I'm getting spooked putting together my five." Yeah. Yeah.
14:39
If you just heard the first segment, I'm all about it. Uh, Numbers Guys points out that the Saints, after one week, are number one in DVOA. [laughs] There you go. Aaron Schatz's, uh, catchall stat over there.
14:50
Not catchall, but really granular play-by-play over there at FTN Sports. Um, and he says, "Greatest sports radio show of all time?" He says it's, "Game Time with Steve Zabin. Where you at and what you haulin'?"
15:01
I was supposed to do something with Zab this year, Fridays. Yeah, I remember you saying that. Going into football. Yeah. I don't know what happened to Zab. I gotta call Zab. Uh, RDW, uh, let's see.
15:10
"Both men's and women's US Open final had an average of only 1.8 million viewers. Brutal. I know it could be hotter, but they should move to August when there's no football that counts yet."
15:20
Well, that's the issue, is that the finals always occur... Well, not, not the, uh, the women's final is on college football Saturday, but the men's final is always during the first day of the NFL [laughs] season, so.
15:30
Why don't they just like play it- Yeah... why don't they just move it up a day? It's a tradition, man. [laughs] It's a tradition. Yeah, but you, you could...
15:36
I know we traditionally have the women's final on Saturday and the men's on Sunday, but if you just moved the whole thing up a, a day, you- Yeah... you completely avoid that NFL thing. Yeah, they're not gonna move it.
15:45
Um, they make so much money in that tournament for sponsorships. Oh, yeah. I bet. It's like a half a billion dollars they net from the US Open. It's incredible.
15:53
Uh, and now for a segment, ladies and gentlemen, that, uh, strangely might cannibalize one of our Friday segments. We call it NFL Week Overreaction or Not an Overreaction, and here's our fancy intro. No? Never mind.
16:03
[laughs] No, no. Not at all. Is this, is this gonna cannibalize our, uh, are we sure we know thing on Friday? Um- Conversations Kelly and I should have had- Maybe... before the show. Yeah, I don't know. May, maybe.
16:13
I don't know. I don't think so. Okay. Might, might, there might be some tie-ins. There might be some similarities, but yeah. Okay. All right.
16:19
I mean, yeah, I think you always gotta do the NFL Week 1 overreaction, especially on a Wednesday. You gotta wait a full two days, then talk, then talk about it. [laughs] How do you wanna do this?
16:27
Do you wanna throw them out? Um, I'm just gonna, yeah, I'm just gonna throw some things at you, okay? I wrote down a bunch of notes. Oh, dang.
16:31
It feels like, uh, it feels like are the general consensus coming away from week one. 49ers were the best team in the NFC. Overreaction, not an overreaction? Not an overreaction, because I thought that before the game.
16:41
I thought they were the best team in the NFC all off-season. Okay. Yeah. Not an overreaction.
16:45
I feel, I feel like that is, and I would even include myself in the group of, I don't know, I had a bunch of teams kind of all... I had Eagles, Lions, uh, 49ers all right there.
16:53
I think I, even I fall in the group of, yes, 49ers have now taken the lead. The Niners were better than the Lions and Eagles and whomever else before the game. They're still better than them. Okay. Yeah.
17:02
Uh, the Panthers [laughs] are the worst team in the NFL again. Uh, it's hard to disagree with that, man. I know.
17:08
It's hard to say that's an overreaction, because again, we, and we went through this a number of times in the off-season. I won't again.
17:13
As bad as you thought Bryce Young's season was last year, it was more historically bad than you can even sort of, uh, gotten with your eyes. Like, when you went through the whole FTN preview- Right... about it.
17:23
It just, it's, it was incredible. And he came out, the first pass was a pick, and then it went downhill from there. So I don't think that's an overreaction.
17:31
As bad as Washington's defense was, as bad as the Giants looked, it's not an overreaction. I think the statement is an overreaction, only because we'd kn- not as many people were saying that before the season this year.
17:43
Okay. We were talking a lot about the Patriots and the Giants. Oh, okay. In that respect, you're right. You, right. You know what I mean?
17:47
In that respect, you're right, 'cause the Patriots, we, Patriots we said more than the, we talked more about in that respect than the Panthers.
17:53
That, that's, that's the only, uh, I don't know if that makes sense, but I'm gonna go with the statement alone is kind of an overreaction. Yeah. Is the, is the team actually the worst team in the NFL?
18:01
Yeah, quite possibly. I'm looking for a, a major overreaction. Right, okay. That wouldn't be one. Um, all right. The Browns offense will never work with Deshaun Watson under center.
18:08
See, I think that is a overreaction to make it that definitive, because, and I don't know, if he has one more bad game, we are really in, in- Yeah, like at that point... in bad territory. Okay.
18:17
But I don't think after a game against the Cowboys defense you can say that. And I, and I get it, the off the field things tend to...
18:25
tend to s- then, and I don't know if people acknowledge this or not, but the p- I'm not even talking about that. No, no, no. Let me finish the statement.
18:30
I think that tends to seep into people's minds, 'cause people, justifiably or not, right, they w- they, they enjoy sort of hating on him at this point.
18:40
Um, you, you play one game against the Cowboys and you stink, I don't think you can jump to the conclusion that the Browns offense will never work with him. Yeah. Like, I think that's an overreaction. Okay.
18:48
But catch me one week from now- I, I was gonna say [laughs]... I was gonna, catch me seven days from now and if he has another bad game, I'm gonna be like, "Oh yeah, it's done." I was gonna say, I agree. Yeah.
18:54
But the case against him is stacking up, uh, in that regard. That was another thing Drew said yesterday. He went immediately to, uh, to- Yeah, DTR...
19:02
to DTR and, and he k- he t- Yeah, you and I were talking about that after the show... he jumped over Jameis. I've never been so offended in my life. [laughs] I had to, like, double check.
19:08
I was like, "D- is DTR still on the roster? He must be." Yes, he is. And he is, he is the third stringer, Drew. Yes. Okay? Third stringer on that team. We will see Jameis Winston first. All right, moving on.
19:18
The Cowboys will threaten the Eagles for the NFC East title. That's not an overreaction at all.
19:23
I, I was more down on the Eagles in the off season than most, and I conceded, I was like, and even being more down on the Eagles, they could still win the division.
19:31
But h- but the, the way you said it, the Cowboys will threaten the Eagles, that's not an overreaction at all. Of course they will. They could win it a- as well. Okay. Yeah.
19:39
The Patriots will go over their four-and-a-half win total. Ooh. That... Man, Aaron Schatz might have been right. Um, is that an overreaction? I think it's a bit of an overreaction. Okay. Yeah. I think it is, too.
19:54
I think it's a bit of an overreaction.
19:55
I think it is, too, although I, I, like, I brought this up a couple times during the summer, and yes, I'm the guy with everything under on the Patriots, and last winless and all of that stuff. Yes, the fewest wins.
20:05
Yes, last winless lost already. But man, it sure feels like Jacoby Brissett's gonna matter in a positive way to them. Like, that is just a- A competent, credible quarterback...
20:14
he's gonna mess around and help them win one or two more games than they should. The year that he replaced Andrew Luck. Yeah. This is, like, one of these things that got lost in history. Absolutely.
20:24
The year that he replaced Andrew Luck, I think the Colts ended up 4 and s- and 12, I wanna say. They were ahead in almost every game in the fourth quarter. And people are like, "Oh, he sucks." Well, not exactly. Mm.
20:37
Yeah. I hear you. Yeah. I hear you, man. Um, all right. Caleb Williams will not be the best rookie quarterback. Oh, that's not an overreaction at all. He will absolutely not be the best rookie quarterback.
20:48
[laughs] And again, I keep going back to the Merrill Hodge thing. We gotta replay that Merrill Hodge thing. Yeah. When he was on the show before the draft, he's like, "He's nothing special."
20:56
And, you know, Todd Wishnev, our, our, who's on the Megapod- Uh, didn't Merrill also say that about, like, every b- quarterback, though? That is incorrect. Okay [laughs]. Oh, wait, of all the rookies?
21:04
Yeah, yeah [laughs]. Well, yeah, but w- Caleb was the one getting the hype, though. Yeah, no, he was. But I don't think this is an overreaction because I think Jayden Daniels seems really comfortable running.
21:12
And so just on the ground alone, Jayden Daniels is going to be better than Caleb Williams. But one of the, you know, Wishnev said this about Caleb Williams, which I thought was great. He's like, "Think about it.
21:21
At USC, what were his best plays? He would just run around, run around, run around, avoid a s- a sack, and then his five-star athletes would eventually get open over the opponent's four-stars." Mm-hmm.
21:33
That's kind of his college career. So anyway. Yeah, he took that one bad sack last week, too, trying to do that, right? Yeah. It was the pass rush is coming. Oh, let me just- Doesn't work in the NFL...
21:40
let me just run around, run back. He lost, like, 18 yards. 'Cause you know what? Everybody in the NFL's a five-star. Right, exactly. Yeah. Okay, all the Chargers needed was Jim Harbaugh, y'all. All right, easy.
21:48
That's an overreaction. [laughs] They still have nobody on offense. Let's, let's, let's not get crazy. Yeah, you getting closer to them on Survivor this week? Uh, not quite. I can't do it. I can't do it.
21:57
But, but just to follow up that- Can't do it... I will not be using the Chargers. That Charger, that is- That's the only thing I've settled on... that Survivor clip got a lot of traction.
22:04
In the c- I thought it was a good conversation... and we came to no conclusions. We came to no conclusions. Yeah. Except I, I've, I've come to that conclusion. Okay, last one for you. The Jets are the same old Jets.
22:12
[laughs] It's an overreaction. They played the Niners. You're allowed to lose to the Niners. Now, that was their... Did they look terrible? Yes, but it's one game.
22:20
Um, I still think the Jets are wildly talented, and I'll use the line I've used off season. If they get any modicum of performance from Aaron Rodgers, they're a playoff team and maybe can win the division.
22:30
Man, they did not look good, though [laughs]. That's all I'm gonna say. They didn't look good. But you know Trent Williams is in there banging on you. Yeah. Uh, and the rook as well. I like that little segment.
22:40
Yeah, it's good. We'll run, we'll run it back in some form on Friday. It's good. Uh, we will come back, Siya Najad joins us, talk a little golf and NFL.
22:47
That's next right here on A Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:55
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23:36
It's Gil Alexander and Kelly Billings alongside here on A Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. You know what I didn't make enough of, by the way? What?
23:43
Mark Borchardt's heartfelt, "I will not bet against the Mets and the Yankees on 9/11" comment. Yeah, that was pretty, uh, yeah, I thought it was pretty, uh, it was pretty cool. Uh, Steve the Proxy tweets in.
23:53
He said, "As a native New Yorker that bleeds orange and blue, we don't get a lot of all-time moments. The Piazza walk-off in the first game back from 9/11 is one of the greatest Mets moments of this century.
24:03
It's easy to get emotional seeing it. Piazza's a Hall of Famer, and that's his best moment." Um, Derby Day Day. Despite the start of football, baseball's still going strong.
24:12
Shout out to Sporer going 6 and 0 on a numbers game yesterday. Did he go 6 and 0 yesterday? I g- I, I guess so. [laughs] Did, did I miss that? Well, good on Spohrer. Okay. Yeah.
24:22
Uh, Brandon Kyles, "Hey," thank you, Brandon Kyles, "Our, uh, pre-flop Padres season win total," my favorite season win total of the entire year, uh, before the season started, Major League Baseball, was the Padres over.
24:32
I gave an impassioned speech at the time as to why, and the Padres win total cashes. Uh, now we got nine more wins to go for our second favorite on the Cubs over, uh, he points out as well. Thank you for that.
24:42
I, I really wish I could back up this Paul Spohrer, uh, thing. I, I don't, I don't believe that for a second. I don't, I don't [laughs] believe any of that. Is that on VSiN plus plus plus? What do I say now?
24:50
Very seriously, yeah. [laughs] Uh, 3JackH3131, uh, "Was on a Zoom call for work, and I heard you say tennis bets, and I immediately muted the call. Thanks for getting us all through our work weeks." Thank you, 3Jack.
25:00
Uh, Kevin Ryan, "Gil, with the change in venue for a numbers game and the brilliant idea for you and Kelly to switch seats, the show can only now be described as exhilarating and electric." [laughs] Wow, okay. All right.
25:10
Well, thank you. Thank you very much. Well, I'll take it. A week and a half in. I know Kelly's exhilarating and electric. [laughs] My God. I had high expectations, but that's, uh... Wow.
25:19
Also exhilarating, electric, Ni- uh, Siya Najad, everybody, from the Monumental Sports Network in the DMV. That's what the cool kids call DC, Maryland, and Virginia.
25:29
Uh, he's the host and analyst for the Monumental Sports Network. You can follow him on Twitter @SiyaNajad. That's S-I-A N-A-J-A-D, joins us on the Progressive guest line and h- uh, now to talk golf and football.
25:40
How you doing, Siya? I'm exhilarated and excited. [laughs] I can't wait to talk, uh, football. We got golf. I'm filling out DFS lineups for both sports. There's a lot going on.
25:50
Baseball, as you guys just previously mentioned. It's a nice sports time. It is. It's the best. October, to me, is the best of them all. Um, but there's so many great sports times, but October still wins for me.
25:59
ProCore Championship, what did this used to be called? And this is the traditional post-golf season, if you will, uh, tournament, correct? Yeah, yeah, a lot of people refer to this as the fall swing.
26:12
This is the beginning of it. It's the ProCore, but people may be familiar with the Fortinet Championship, which w- this was previously called. And then I think before that, maybe the Safeway Open.
26:21
Um, you know, listen, these are, these are lesser tournaments where you're not gonna see a lot of the huge names like Scottie Scheffler or Xander Schauffele, but there are some big-time players, some President's Cup players, including Sahith Theegala, Max Homa, Wyndham Clark.
26:33
Uh, so there's some names here, but, but what I love about these tournaments, Gil and Kelly, is that it lends itself to somebody further down the board winning or somebody further down the board cashing in a, in a top 20 or top 40 market, or potentially, a first-round leader cashing at long odds.
26:48
You mentioned Theegala. You're all over him in this tournament. Yeah, I mean, listen, he, he's been really good here before. He's probably the most talented guy.
26:56
I mean, I would probably put him and Wyndham Clark as the most talented guys in this field. He's a California kid, which is gonna help on a California course. Uh, and so he kinda checks all the boxes.
27:04
I hate taking a short shot.
27:05
He's one of, you know, five outrights that I like in this tournament, but he is the short shot that I like just because I think the talent gap is there, and especially when you consider the course history.
27:13
So Sahith Theegala's an outright I like. I like Luke Clanton, the amateur that is- Clanton? Uh, real, real... Yeah, Clanton. [laughs] He, he's been very impressive.
27:21
I like him at plus 2500, even though he's got a lack of, uh, experience here. Eric Cole is a guy that's a big-time birdie maker.
27:27
He can kinda crash and burn for you, but at 40-1, I'm willing to find out, because later in the season, Eric Cole started to get really hot.
27:33
And then a couple kinda random names, Mac Meisner at 50-1 and Patrick Fishburne, 75-1. Those are some outrights for you. Patrick Fishburne. What did you scream? Clanton? Is that what you screamed?
27:42
Clanton, Florida St- hey, it's the only thing Florida State's got to root for right now. Oh, okay. So, you know. Not on that list, J.J. Spaun. I heard a lot of people loving J.J. Spaun here. Yeah, I like J.J. Spaun.
27:50
I think he's a good play. I think he's a safe play. I mean, I think I'd probably prefer to play him in the top 20 market. I don't think he's gonna close in a tournament with guys like Luke Clanton, who are more talented.
28:00
Potentially Eric Cole, I think, is probably a better birdie maker, although Spaun actually rivals him there. But then you include Sahith Theegala, Wyndham Clark.
28:06
Um, I think Spaun is one of those guys that can finish seventh, and, and you're not surprised by it, but finishing first, uh, uh, it's not for me.
28:14
Okay, and it wouldn't be a, a, a Siya Najad segment without first-round leaders bets. What do you got? Yeah, these are all morning tee times.
28:21
Uh, so a lot of this will mirror some of the outrights, but some of the outrights that I liked didn't have morning tee times, so you'll get a couple different names. Sahith Theegala, 30-1. Eric Cole at 60-1.
28:31
Patrick Fishburne at 75-1, who by the way, is the great nephew of Laurence Fishburne. Neil Shipley at plus 70, uh, plus 7500, 75-1. Chad Ramey, 110-1. I completely just lied about the Patrick Fishburne thing.
28:41
I was just gonna say. [laughs] I'm like, what? [laughs] I was already- [laughs] I was gonna hold it for, like, five seconds. I was already like, "What's your favorite Laurence Fishburne movie?"
28:47
Now it doesn't even matter, 'cause it's true. I was going to Google that immediately. Yeah. I was like, "How did I not know this? What a great drop by Siya." Uh, okay, and anything else?
28:54
Top 40 bet you said you had as well? Yeah, I like Mac Meisner quite a bit. Again, the only reason he's not in the first-round leader market is 'cause he's an afternoon tee time.
29:02
But I think Mac Meisner's one of those games you're gonna start hearing not just in the fall swing, but when we start up at the Century or early next year in January.
29:09
I think Mac Meisner's a really good play, in really good form, love the ball striking, can pop with the putter. Si- Siya just making stuff up about re- relationships or, or relatives. [laughs] Right. That kind of thing.
29:18
If I was his cameraman when he dropped that, oh, man. Mac Meisner's not even a real player. He's a great... He, he went to the great nephew, by the way, didn't he? Yeah, right. [laughs] Yeah. Um, okay, let's talk NFL.
29:26
Your, your, your thoughts on week one. Like, what was your biggest takeaway from week one? You know, it's interesting. A little recency bias here, 'cause it was the last game we saw, but the Jets looked like a mess.
29:38
Uh, and I'm a big Jets guy. I like them to win the AFC East. For the record, I still like them w- to win the AFC East.
29:42
They clearly missed Hassan Reddick, but I think the Niners kinda reminded everybody that not only are they the most talented team, but that Kyle Shanahan's probably the best coach.
29:50
Again, I, I've said this before, Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVay, the top two coaches in the league. I mean, Robert Saleh looked just so unbelievably confused. They didn't know what to do on defense.
30:00
And I think if this team stays relatively healthy at key positions, and now key positions include running back with CMC, but Jordan Mason certainly spelling him for at least a little bit, uh, this Niners team is reminding everybody that perhaps not the Detroit Lions, not the Green Bay Packers, not the Philadelphia Eagles should be the frontrunners here.
30:17
And I understand the Niners were already the frontrunners, but the trendy thing to do was to say, "Hey, this is not the 49ers year. It's somebody else's." And in the NFC, I just don't think that's the case.
30:26
What did you land on for week two? So, so far I like the Colts. I mean, I'm just gonna fade Malik Willis. Uh, I don't really understand why this line is three. I mean, I, I'm, I'm taking the bait here.
30:35
It was three and a half, now it's toggled down to three. Maybe it kicks back up, but it looks like a lot of people have faith that Green Bay at home is gonna be that team. Like, I was on the Colts last week.
30:45
I, I actually had them money line, but I also had them plus three. They ended up covering the spread, and don't forget, this team was one unbelievable third down and 11 conversion b- between C.J.
30:55
Stroud and Nico Collins from getting the ball back and kicking a game-winning field goal.
30:59
Uh, Anthony Richardson missed a lot of throws, but what I like about this game in particular is that you got Malik Willis at the quarterback position, but this defensive line is so underrated.
31:07
And by the way, they got after C.J. Stroud. He had a good game 'cause he's a great quarterback, but Malik Willis is not.
31:11
And if this defensive line gets after Malik Willis, I don't think they're, he's gonna be able to run a Matt LaFleur offense smoothly at all.
31:18
I think Anthony Richardson is, is good enough with his legs and his arm to cover this spread. So I really like the Colts.
31:23
Other ones I'm considering, uh, the Niners going into Minnesota and covering a six-point spread, I kinda like that. I'm considering, get this, I'm considering taking Carolina, especially if this kicks up to seven- Man.
31:35
Yeah... at home against the Chargers. [laughs] I haven't done it yet. I'm considering it.
31:39
'Cause let's be honest, and w- we said this, I mean, I said this on Guessing Lines when Kelly told me what the number was, I was like, "You gotta be kidding me, right?"
31:46
Like, the Chargers should not be this big of a favorite over anybody on the road, but yet do you have the onions to take the Panthers plus the points, which is probably the right thing to do, right?
31:58
The right for the, uh- Yeah... you know, if you're doing this by the book. I'm standing by my seven and a half number, though. Y- give me the seven and a half- Yeah... and I'll be in. Right, but if- I'll be in today.
32:05
Right, but if it gets to seven and a half, are you gonna be like, "Ah, I meant 10 and a half"? [laughs] No, no, no. At seven and a half, I will stand by it with my hard-earned money. Oh, okay. But not, not until then.
32:14
Sorry, Sia. I li- I like seeing that. Good luck. [laughs] I think it's a good sign. I like that you say you're considering it, but you haven't gotten there quite yet, is what you're saying.
32:21
Well, I mean, here's the thing. Kelly's right. The, the money right now looks to be on the, on the Carolina plus the seven, but we know how this goes.
32:27
As the days go by, people are like, "I just can't stay away from this." They're gonna take it at six and a half. It kicks up to seven.
32:32
Maybe you can take an alt line at seven and a half by the time of kickoff at, like, minus 120. So I mean, I think it's, it's safe to wait on that one, and if, if it is seven and a half, I will go ahead and bet it.
32:41
All right, Sia. Always a pleasure, man. Thank you so much. Thanks, fellas. Talk to you soon. Sia, Sia Najad on the Progressive Guest Line, @sianajad. Again, Monumental Sports Network in the DMV.
32:51
Uh, I did, uh, this is malpractice at the beginning of the show. I did not, uh, I did not say who was going to be on at the beginning of the next hour. Yeah. Yeah, you were grilling me about debates. That's, I was.
33:00
I, I was so, I was, had debate fever is what I had. [laughs] Uh, Cleve TA is about to join us, uh, for not one, but two segments. One of the best, uh, Twitter follows on the NFL that there is.
33:12
Um, gonna ask him about stuff I've said this week that he finds, uh, ridiculous. Maybe he has found something ridiculous. Uh, as bout, a- about as good of an NFL mind as there is, uh, cleveanalytics.com.
33:22
Cleve TA on Twitter. He will join us. Jason Weingarten as well. Oh, we got the Larceny Bourbon Smooth Bet of the Week a little later on. Cleve TA on the other side. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:33
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
33:49
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it.
33:58
It's Gil Alexander, it is Kelly Bidlin right here on the Numbers Game. Uh, still to come, Cleve TA on the National Football League, as well as Jason Weingarten, and, uh, we will talk a little later on, um...
34:11
Oh, we have, oh, we have Cleve here. I wanna get this one tweet before we get to Cleve here. Sure. Ronnie Rojo asks, he goes, "Any thoughts on the Pro Core Championship in Napa this week from you?"
34:18
Yeah, don't, yeah, I don't know if that was directed at me. Yeah. But this is, uh [laughs] yeah, a li- lightly bet event for me this, uh, this week. You will see, I'll be involved in these falls, uh, fall series events.
34:28
There's eight of 'em. There are qualification points on the line basically for the PGA Tour season, which now starts.
34:34
Uh, we are kinda in the first year where we're doing this full, the full calendar year, uh, PGA Tour season.
34:40
So how this is gonna work, once the Tour Championship ends, then you'll have this fall series where it's eight events, allows guys to still build up points to try to get, move up into the FedEx Cup standings, into events, into signature events, especially the first two signature events for next year.
34:55
So you'll see, you're never gonna see great fields at any of these, Gil, but this is one of the ones where you will have a little bit better field, especially with the President's Cup coming up, so a few big names playing in this one.
35:06
Um, so just a few outrights for me here. This is a, i- it is a resort course. Guys go low. You see a lot of birdies. Fi, uh, winning score is gonna be around 20 under. So, uh, you mentioned J.J. Spaun. I'm on J.J.
35:17
Spaun, great oppo- uh, approach numbers. Oh. Um, I do think this is one of the last tournaments that you can use, uh, s- some of your summer data from in recent form looking at that.
35:27
Uh, so he, he got like 12 to one, not two to one, if you are watching at home. Um, [tsking] so yeah, I am pulling still some of my recent data for this tournament. So J.J.
35:36
Spaun, one name, uh, the next name not gonna surprise anybody.
35:39
Well, when you gotta, when you gotta drive the ball straight and long off the tee, and you need good approach, and then the greens are very tough to putt on, you bet Keith Mitchell. Wow, of course you do.
35:48
Keith Mitchell, 40 to one back on the card, and then Rico Hoey, my last one, 80 to one. Uh, a guy who's been play- was playing really well during the summer. We'll see if he can keep it going during the fall.
35:57
He'll probably be playing in a lot of these, uh, events during the fall. All right. Uh, he is probably one of the finest minds. I'll say the finest.
36:04
He'll, he, he won't accept this, uh, this, uh, sort of compliment from me, but he's certainly one of the finest minds on, uh, gambling Twitter when it comes to the NFL. Uh, you can follow him on Twitter @CleveTA.
36:14
That's C-L-E-V-T-A, comes on the mega pod about once a year. We have him on the show from time to time as well. Uh, he was kind enough to join us this off-season for some NFL preview thoughts. Uh, it's Cleve TA now from
36:28
Cleveland, Ohio, where of course he is a big Brownies fan. How you doing, Cleve? Oh man, don't put that on me already after last week. [laughs] That's a tough one. Where- That's a tough one. Well, let's start there.
36:38
Where do you stand? 'Cause we- we've gotten questions, as I'm sure everybody has, about, um, is this the end? Are we approaching the end for Deshaun Watson?
36:47
Um, can you read into one performance against what is considered a very good Cowboys defense? Where do you stand on the Browns? Yeah, I just don't know.
36:55
I mean, going into this year, uh, he probably had the widest range of outcomes, I think, of any quarterback in the NFL, uh, just 'cause we've seen him be elite and we've seen him be really bad the last couple of years.
37:04
So, you know, it- it... none of it really would shock me.
37:08
And, and so if week one was not a total stunner, especially considering he didn't play a single preseason snap, uh, he was down to his third left tackle against a really good pass rush.
37:17
I mean, Michael Parsons was just wrecking that game. Uh, it's a brand-new offense, a system with Ken Dorsey at offensive coordinator. So, you know, there's a lot of headwinds here.
37:26
Uh, and he's obviously coming off of the injury. So the fact that he really struggled didn't surprise me. I actually had an under in that game. I, [laughs] yeah, uh, tossed the CLV, uh, in the toilet.
37:35
I had, uh, under 43. I think I closed 41, and I, I was pushing until th- that last meaningless, uh, touchdown at the end. But, uh, so I, I thought that there would be some rust and, and that he would struggle.
37:46
Um, you know, he probably looked worse, uh, than, than you would imagine, but, you know, it wasn't a total stunner.
37:52
I mean, he did, uh, for whatever it's worth, in the fourth quarter, yeah, the, the, the Cowboys called off the dogs, but they still had their starters in there. Did make a couple of really nice throws.
38:01
I think he had four drops, uh, amongst his wide receivers. Amari Cooper dropped an easy touchdown. It was a, it was actually a great throw. He got hit, uh, as he delivered the ball about 40 yards down the field.
38:11
One of the better throws he's had as a Brown, uh, to be honest, and, and Cooper just dropped it. So, you know, there were s- a couple of, uh, of bright spots, but not many overall. And, you know, I, I...
38:22
I- you don't wanna totally put your head in the sand, but, um, you know, I, I think we have to give it a little bit more time than just completely write him off after week one. Yeah, especially with the contract, right?
38:31
The, the contract makes it almost completely prohibitive for them to move on, doesn't it? Like, you can't admit that mistake and then eat all that dead cap money. No. I mean, you can't...
38:42
Y- I mean, cutting him makes no sense. You could...
38:44
But the way the Browns have, and again, there's capologists out there who, who, who are much smarter than me on this, but my understanding is just the way that the Browns have, um, you know, put this contract together and the way they've built this roster and they've pushed a lot of the, his money into the back, uh, and so in future years where the cap keeps going up.
39:01
So it's actually, you know, it's like a, a, an interest-free credit card, right?
39:04
Like, you, i- i- if your, your salary increases, uh, and you don't have to pay interest on it, you'd rather just pay, you know, uh, your credit card off when you have more money, and it's kinda the same concept that the way the Browns have set up their, uh, their contract.
39:18
So it's gonna hurt, obviously, uh, if they cut him in, you know, in a year or two, um, or even just make him a backup, but it's not as bad as it could be as if it was today and just the way they've structured it.
39:29
So, you know, it's one of those things that we've seen teams like Denver has done it with, with Russell Wilson. We saw, uh, uh, the, the Eagles do it with Carson Wentz. We've seen, uh, you know, Atlanta do it, Matt Ryan.
39:39
Like, teams have done it. Like, to this extent, it's probably, um, you know, not as m- not as large, but it's, it's, it's happened. So I, I don't...
39:46
I still think that they're gonna do everything they can to try to see this thing through. Um, and, you know, we'll just, we'll see what happens here. But, uh, yeah, it doesn't...
39:56
Uh, if he continues on, on this track, he's either just gonna be the, uh, highest paid backup who's ever, uh, uh, played in, in, in sports or, um, they're gonna have to figure out something.
40:05
But, uh, yeah, that, that would not be the ideal scenario. All right. Well, thank you for amusing me with the Cleveland Browns portion of this. I know that was difficult for you.
40:12
[laughs] I, I'll ask of you what I asked of Drew Dincic a couple days, the first question I asked of him, which is, all right, we have one week. No one wants to overreact.
40:20
Um, but did you see anything in week one that doesn't necessarily completely change your thinking, but at least you filed away and you're like, "Okay, I should probably keep an eye on this"?
40:32
Well, you know, obviously the Carolina thing was... Well, I, I was one of the many who, who are on Carolina just hoping that, uh, you know, they could show some signs of life, and that was really disappointing.
40:41
I mean, it was right off the bat, too. The game was over just in the first two drives. [laughs] It's so bad. Um, and, you know, I wasn't picking them to, you know, make the playoffs or anything.
40:49
I think I had them as five wins in, in my preview. But, you know, I thought they could at least be frisky and come out of the gate, you know, competitive.
40:56
Uh, and just to completely, um, you know, throw a dud like that out there was, was really disappointing.
41:01
Uh, but otherwise, I think the one thing [laughs] that really took away, and, and Gil, you'll appreciate this, is, uh, h- I forgot how bad Kliff Kingsbury is as an offensive coach. Oh, dude.
41:11
I mean, I, I, I was on Washington. I, I'm a fader of T- Tampa generally this year, and I just thought that Jayden Daniels had some real upside. You know, uh, no one's seen him before.
41:19
I thought, you know, he looked good in preseason. His legs. I mean, he, he was awesome running the ball. Um, and I think he could have moved the ball down the field a little bit more. They did move the ball on occasion.
41:28
They missed two field goals. Obviously, Dan Quinn settling for field goals, like, when, you know, that's, that's, uh, that's obvious. But just, Kliff Kingsbury just had him throw, uh, horizontally.
41:37
That's what he did with Kyler Murray in Arizona, and he was doing the same thing here. Like, they nev- I think he threw two or three balls down the field, and that was it. He had time to throw.
41:46
He had opportunities if, if they wanted to try, and they just never did, and it just goes to show you, like, uh, you, uh, Kliff Kingsbury is just the same old guy.
41:54
So if, if Daniels, uh, plays well, um, and they, and they do score some points, it's probably, you know, uh, not due to anything Kingsbury's doing, just to the talent.
42:03
But, you know, that's something I'm thinking about going forward is just I, I, I don't think that Kliff can really adjust here and, uh, you're not gonna get the best of Washington's offense here going forward. Yeah.
42:13
How I like to say what Kliff Kingsbury is, he, he's the guy that managed to make, uh, Patrick Mahomes not, you know, not apparently the, not apparent to be the number one pick of the draft, right?
42:22
Like, when he was at Texas Tech. The fact that we've, we were sort of taken off the scent of Patrick Mahomes. Yeah. Not to mention Kyler Murray and so on and so forth. Um, okay.
42:31
Were you, uh, let me, let me just sort of lead on with, with something to week one before we get to week two. Were you at all, um- Were you at all shocked by the Jets against the Niners? I know it's the Niners.
42:43
I know the Niners are great. I know you are, you were, were a Brock Purdy guy last year, as I was. But did, uh, while the Jets looked good at the very first couple drives, uh, on defense, if not on offense.
42:55
They had the one drive where they kept getting the third down conversions to Garrett Wilson. But after that, were you alarmed by the fact that they just seemed to have no answers whatsoever?
43:07
You know, so I was on the Niners. It was, uh, a bet I made, uh, at three and a half. It was a contest play for me. I, I didn't understand all the Jets love.
43:14
Like, you have a 40-year-old quarterback off an, a torn Achilles.
43:17
You know, the Achilles stuff, but it's a 40-year-old quarterback on its own, uh, coming off an Achilles, with brand-new teammates, uh, hasn't played in two years, against that defense.
43:27
Like, it just, to me, I like the Jets this year. That was not the spot to take them. Like, to me, that, that was just a horrible position.
43:35
Um, so, a- and defensively, y- you know, you lose Bryce Huff in the off season, you lose John Franklin-Myers. You don't have Haason Reddick, so your pass rush takes a hit, and that was the strength of your defense.
43:46
So I, I just felt like there was a lot of headwinds here, uh, for the Jets, and I didn't think that these teams were within four points for that to, to occur. So it didn't surprise me, just 'cause...
43:54
And I actually had an alt over, uh, alt San Francisco minus 12 and a half at like plus 330. So I did see some outlier up, uh, uh, upside for the Niners. So that didn't surprise me at all.
44:05
I will say just getting completely pushed around. I thought Jordan Mason looked awesome. He looked like Marion Barber a little bit, right? Yes. Like, just, uh- Same number, yeah... breaking.
44:12
You know, maybe it's number 24- Yeah... and maybe 'cause he got the dreads, but just, he, he's a hammer. He's tough to bring down.
44:18
Uh, and maybe the Jets were just planning on, um, you know, stopping Christian McCaffrey, and it was a totally, um, you know, a totally different, uh, mindset defensively. I don't know.
44:27
But, you know, this defense has struggled of late. Even back to the Browns game at the end of last year with Joe Flacco, they torched that defense.
44:34
So I don't know if there's something underlying that we're missing here, uh, defensively. Uh, but this is extended into, uh, to, to Monday night.
44:42
So that is something I, I'm definitely keeping an eye on and a little bit of alarming is, is just how much they got pushed around defensively. I will say Aaron Rodgers looked, looked okay. Like, I thought he was fine.
44:52
Yeah. They just didn't... He didn't move, just like Kirk Cousins. Like, they, they were stuck in the pocket, um, as you'd expect. Um, and, you know, they didn't really try to throw the ball a lot.
45:01
There was a lot of first and second down runs, putting them in third and long situations, which is not something you wanna do. But the, you know, that's, that's, that's Hackett, I guess. [laughs] I don't know. Oh.
45:10
I mean, I, I'm not sure. Are they gonna, are they gonna, you know, let him throw the ball more on first downs, or are they just trying to ease him in? I'm not sure.
45:16
But, um, you know, that was, uh, I think alarming on, on, uh, for the offensive side as well. TA, uh, we'll come back. We'll talk all things week two, all of your bets that you're making.
45:26
It's the Numbers Game right here at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat rock music]
A Numbers Game
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