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Sep 13, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | September 13, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | September 13, 2024
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story, they always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
0:10
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it.
0:17
It's Gil Alexander, it is Kelly Bilin, where sports betting lives, live from Circa. What's happening? Not much, man. How you doing? Uh, I am great. Our show is ridiculous on Fridays.
0:29
Uh, hour number two, can we start there? Falica, Fezzik, and Dr. Bob, assuming they all remember when they're supposed to be here. [laughs] Assuming that, it doesn't get much better than that. That's right.
0:38
Assuming that they all know when they're supposed to, uh, chime in. Chris Falica, of course, the bear from Fox Sports on college football. Apparently he has some horse racing. I don't know.
0:46
He's got bets in lots of things. A big race this weekend. Uh, Steve Fezzik in the National Football League. We have lots to talk about with Fezzik.
0:52
And, uh, it will be, uh, let's see, received well in some respects and perhaps not received well in other respects with Steve. I'll just tease it that way. College football with Dr. Bob.
1:01
I also wanna dive into some of his NFL picks and get his reasoning on his thoughts there. First hour, uh, joined by Alex Kane, the CEO of Sporttrade.
1:10
We are always, uh, humbled when a CEO of any company decides they wanna hang out with us. Alex Kane coming back on the show to talk about Sporttrade. Minus 104 lines. Right. Not, not minus 110.
1:21
Uh, Premier League with Paul Carr, and Paul Carr also happens to be a Dolphins fan, so that works out this morning. Works out bizarro- Yeah... plan. And then, uh, are we sure?
1:31
Are we sure of the NFL week two, our segment, uh, that we do every week here on the show. We will get into that. Uh, let us begin with the Dolphins and the Bills.
1:37
And I don't wanna do guessing line style and recap the whole thing, but I do wanna recap just the meat of this, just to go over again just how this just deteriorated so rapidly for the Miami Dolphins.
1:47
And let me just say, I was completely wrong about this football game. Um, Bills fans may not like me by the end of this, but I was completely wrong about this game itself, because the Dolphins were just atrocious.
1:58
And yes, shout-out to the Bills. Good for them. They're two and O. They have banked the wins now, a 31 to 10 win over the Dolphins.
2:07
That started on the Dolphins' first drive with a, uh, interception that was not Tua Tagovailoa's fault. Uh, it bounced off Grant DuBose right into, uh, right off his shoulder pad into the hands of Jamarcus Ingram.
2:18
That was returned to the Miami 37, short field, but Bill's got on the board first with a fourth and three. Remember, fourth and three it was at the Miami 17.
2:26
Allen to James Cook, wide open in the flat, touchdown, seven to nothing Buffalo.
2:30
Uh, then the high point of the game for Miami ensued, 'cause Miami did have one scoring drive, a, uh, 10 play drive that was five runs, five passes, two to eight and from five out.
2:39
It was seven to seven late third quarter. Uh, late first- Looked good on that drive... late first quarter, pardon me. Yeah, they looked good. And then they, then they forced a three and out. Yep, yep.
2:46
So this was the high mark of the Miami Dolphins in this game. The rest, [laughs] not so much.
2:52
Um, first and 10, their own 29, Tua airmails Robbie Chosen, formerly Robbie Anderson, but he wants to be part of the tribe apparently, so he changed it to Robbie Chosen. Uh, picked by Christian Benford.
3:03
That was, that returned to the, uh, Miami 43, so another short field. Tyler Bass field goal, 10-7, Miami three and out.
3:09
Then a eight play 85-yard drive for the Bills, which was a, which ended up being a third and 11 at the Dolphins 34, where Josh Allen does Josh Allen things.
3:18
He extends the play and Jalen Ramsey loses contact with Ty Johnson. A horrible play by Jalen Ramsey. 33 yards to the one, and then, uh, of course Cook puts it in from there. So you're 17 to seven at that point.
3:33
Then fourth and two at the Buffalo 45, Tua sacked by Ed Oliver. It just keeps getting worse. Um, Buffalo then thinking about a double dip.
3:41
Remember last week they executed the perfect double dip down 14 against the Cardinals. That got them back into the game, got them tied with the Cardinals.
3:47
So they're thinking, "Hey, double di- double dip opportunity again." Instead, yeah, double dip schmubble schmip, because, uh, Cook in from 49 untouched. [laughs] Yeah, that, that one was easy. [laughs] That...
4:00
I mean, it just went from bad to just comical. 24 to seven Buffalo. This is late in the third quarter.
4:05
And now here's where I just wanna, this is why I wanted to do it step by step, because some of these things are gonna be lost.
4:10
This was a failure offensively for the Dolphins, it was a failure defensively, but it was also a failure coaching-wise. What was that last sequence in the first half? Oh my gosh.
4:19
I, I was hoping you weren't gonna skip by it. Yeah, that is, that was incredible. They showed no urgency in play calling. Now, some people will say Tua was afraid to throw the ball downfield.
4:27
I, I don't know if it was that. I don't think it was that. I don't think it was that at all. They showed no urgency in play calling. Then they had, and they, by the way, they had a full allotment of timeouts.
4:35
They did not call the first of them till 33 seconds were left in the half. It was the weirdest thing. Uh, and then the bizarre play calling continued after that.
4:46
It was like, it was like they thought they needed a field goal to win the game. Yeah, it, it- It was so strange- Yeah, I, I-... instead of being down 17 in the first half. Agree with you. It felt more like that.
4:55
It just, I, I understand there's a fine line, because I, on the other side, we kill coaches all the time when you sc- you score too quick, right?
5:02
It's a fine line in that moment to be able to try to score and leave, not leave enough time on the clock for Josh Allen. It's a- But this went over. Yes, that's a- This went over...
5:12
that's a good point, Kelly, but this was- Th- th- this-... this was ridiculous. Yeah, I agree. This was awful. Um- Even the play calling, like you said, it was like the play calling wasn't even designed.
5:20
I w- what are, what are we doing? Like, yeah. By the way, that continued for much of the second half too, I thought, uh, after the Tua, Tua, um, exit.
5:28
Uh, but anyway, they end up hitting a, you know, a field goal from Sanders, 24 to 10 at the half. The, the second half begins, and this of course is where it goes from just awful to
5:39
do we really feel good about watching football? Buffalo has to punt, but then Miami third and five from their own 30. Tua under pressure. He tries to throw it away.
5:47
It's a Billy Lev- an ill-advised Billy Levi's play where he can't get it out of bounds. It goes right in the hands of Jamarcus Ingram, [laughs] pick six, 31 to 10 Buffalo. This is early third quarter.
5:58
Well, 9:27 left in the third quarter. And then of course, the point that everybody's gonna talk about today, Miami gets it to fourth and fourth, the Buffalo 13.
6:06
Uh, Tua gets seven of those yards for the first down, but he takes a hit, a bit of, bit of a neck impingement. Ironically, um, Damar Hamlin on the hit. He then bangs his head, or the back of his head, on the ground.
6:20
We have seen this before. The contractions in his hands occur. We have seen that before. That's the fencing response to a concussion.
6:29
Uh, he ended up limping off, which is what Al Michaels all, seemingly all wanted to talk about, was him limping off. But obviously, that wasn't the thing. Uh, we know of Tua's concussions from two seasons ago.
6:39
Uh, specifically the ones that stick out in our brains, I think I can speak on everybody's behalf, is the one against Buffalo where he was sacked.
6:46
He got up, he was woozy, he fell back down, and then his teammates had to help him up as he walked off the field. And remember, the NFL called it a back injury- Yeah... that week.
6:54
And then four days later, he's playing against the Bengals on a Thursday night. That's when we saw the fencing response that was so, um, absolutely horrible to see for anybody, anybody watching that game.
7:08
And so last night when the fencing thing happened, they cut away from it very quickly. Did you notice that? Mm-hmm, yep. Like, they did not wanna linger on that.
7:14
And so I don't know if, if you were like this, but I immediately went to the w- what's Tua's contract thing.
7:18
He signed, of course, a four-year, $212 million contract extension this off-season, 167 million of which are guaranteed. Anyway, the rest of this game was academic.
7:27
Skylar Thompson came in, they couldn't get a fourth down. 31 to 10, the Bills roll. So there's a football aspect and there's a Tua aspect. From the football aspect, let me just, let's get that out of the way first.
7:37
The football aspect is Bills are now 20 and five versus the Vision, versus the AFC East since 2020. Allen's record versus the Dolphins is 12 and two straight up. Um, Bill's fifth straight win against the Dolphins.
7:49
Miami loses for the 10th time in their past 11 to the Bills.
7:53
Um, and the betting odds go from Miami being the short shot to win the AFC East at plus 165 to now it's the Bills plus 125, the Jets plus 270, or the Dolphins plus 350. And Tua was able to...
8:06
Now, getting to the Tua part, he was able to sign that big deal because last year was his career season. Remember, the concussions was two years ago. Last year he was able to avoid that.
8:14
He led the league with 4,624 yards passing, to go along with 29 touchdowns and 14 picks. Um, the Tua part, you know, some... Uh, CBS Sports HQ injury expert Marty Jaramillo, let's just take one voice out there.
8:27
He thinks Tua could be sidelined a minimum of eight to 12 weeks. I don't know if it's gonna be eight to 12 weeks, but it better not be nothing. Oh, yeah.
8:36
'Cause if the NFL is serious about their concussion protocol, they have to really protect this kid.
8:41
I, I think this is another great example of where the new, the newer short to- short term IR comes into play, and I think it's a great thing for the NFL, where you gotta miss four weeks, right? Yeah.
8:51
And I think that, I think that's where you start with him. I- in my opinion, that's where it starts, and then, and then you take it from there.
8:56
It, you just, you really do worry about Tua, and I think, I mean, I think most football fans, even if you had bets on it 'cause the game was largely decided at that point, maybe you had end games, um, but I think everybody's brain shifted to, "Please, let, let the kid be okay."
9:10
Y- you wanna hear from Dion Dawkins, uh, uh- Yeah... on the Bills' lining? This, I think this is a good ex- this is a good perspective on this. Yeah. It re- it really is, guys. You can fire that up.
9:17
It's good stuff from Dion Dawkins from the Bills. I'm telling you, it w- it was the saddest thing. I promise you, it was the saddest thing. Uh, we're all just watching him run and we're like, "Slide, bro. Slide, bro.
9:28
Slide, bro. Slide." And this game is so fast. It's a game of inches, you know? If he would've just slid just a little inch before. It's such a sad thing.
9:39
My prayers, my heart goes out to Tua, his family, his parents, and, uh, I hope that he's going to, uh, recover well, 'cause it's a violent game and, a- and that shows it.
9:48
And, uh, I know everybody in this locker room will, and we'll be praying for him. You know, even though, like, we're enemies, but we're family.
9:55
You know, like, we're all in football players, and we're in this brotherhood together, and we all tip our hats to Tua, and we all will get on a knee and pray for Tua and his family. But, um, it's a sad, it's a sad deal.
10:06
I mean, if that doesn't drive it home for you, I don't know what does. I mean, that is- Yeah... an opposing player saying that. Yeah.
10:11
And I, I think from a on-field perspective, it's very clear that everybody's aware of what Tua's gone through in the past. And, and you just, you just have to absolutely feel for him.
10:21
And that, and that overrides the fact, and, and, and again, let's, let's have a now a football discussion. It overrides the feeling after that game.
10:29
But from a football perspective, where we might be so sober, it's the Dolphins look awful. They probably should be O and two.
10:36
Remember, it was the fumble into the end zone on the way into the end zone for the Jaguars that was quickly turned into an 80-yard touchdown score to Tyreek that turned around the game against Jacksonville last week.
10:47
So the Dolphins, one could say, are fortunate to have won that game. So the Dolphins, man, you gotta really worry about this team. And I should've listened to my own advice. They're a bully.
10:55
That's the topic sentence of the Miami Dolphins. Th- when their talent exceeds that of the other team, they crush 'em. When someone picks on 'em that's their own size, it doesn't work out so well.
11:04
And that's what happened last night. And I will say this about the Bills. Good on the Bills. You're two and O. But let's just be honest about the Bills, too. The first game, and by the way, again, you were two and O.
11:14
You've done everything you can do. Kyler Murray missed a wide open Marvin Harrison Jr., um, in the first game that could have beaten you after you trailed 17 to three, made a valiant comeback.
11:23
And then last night, I don't know that you c- yes, you forced these plays to some degree, but I don't know if you can expect other quarterbacks who are better than Tua to throw the ball so mindlessly to the side and get, have a pick six, a la Will Levis, uh, for the Titans.
11:38
Um- But it's two wins in the AFC. But it's two wins. Yeah. You banked 'em. Good for you. Hey, look, I love Jesse Pagula. [laughs] I still love you Bills fans. I don't hate you. Give you that much. Uh, we'll come back.
11:48
Paul Carr, Premier League picks, and he's a Dolphins fan. Next. [upbeat music] The numbers tell the story. They always do. One Idiots who believe in analytics This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSIN.
12:06
Hour number two of a numbers game at VSIN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin. Friday footballs. This will always be our second hour.
12:17
Uh, the Bear, Chris Falica, two with Steve Fezzik, and of course, Dr. Bob to round things out.
12:22
By the way, I told Bob, I said, "You're gonna do the last segment now on the second hour," and he's like, "Oh, that'll be awesome because then the listeners will have that much more to anticipate me." [laughs] That's Dr.
12:32
Bob, everybody. Never, never really shy on confidence. Um- We, we gotta make sure we start teasing him on Monday so people know that, you know? Right. "Oh, where's, what's Bob going on?"
12:40
[laughs] Uh, we get tweets @bettingbrook. Charles in Connecticut, "Yep, adjusted my schedule to make sure I catch hour number two." Brian Heap about the mega pod, "Can I borrow some money?
12:48
I blew my bankroll on the under three and a half bombs by Will Hill. F-bombs that is. Seemed like free money." Los Vegas 514, "Yo, shut Tua down? He's only 26 years old. He's still so very young.
12:58
At what point do we say enough is enough?" That tweet went a couple different directions. I never said anything about, uh, if you were, if you were asking about me. My whole thing is y- you can't let him play next week.
13:09
I'm not gonna be one of these people on mainstream media who, who does a whole segment that's like, "T- what should Tua do?" I- It's not our business. Yeah. Not our business. Right? Yep.
13:17
It's, it's, it's for doctors to, to let him know what they think. And by the way, there's gonna be differing opinions on that too.
13:23
It's not gonna be one monolithic opinion on, uh, his state of affairs with his concussions. Um, so my thing is, let's just protect the kid.
13:33
Let's not let him get back too soon, um, just to protect him as a human being above all. Uh, Kyle D, "My jaw dropped. The fact that they had a Tua injury montage ready on hand and rolled with it." Yeah.
13:44
That was a little interesting too. Uh, us TV producers are creepy like that. Yeah. Yeah. It's, it's bad.
13:49
And, uh, Shooter McGamblin says, uh, I like that, Shooter McGamblin says, "Felt like last year we watched some of the worst quarterback play from the league as a whole.
13:54
Week two just started and we're already looking at Malik Willis and Skylar Thompson starting." I was making this point last week as well. Yeah.
14:01
Jen O'Connor tweet, uh, tweeted at me, um, uh, Micah White as an option for the, uh, for the Dolphins. Micah White. And we haven't forgot about the great Micah White. Micah White.
14:10
Uh, okay, we'll get to more of your tweets.
14:11
Ladies and gentlemen, let us kick off our number two with Chris Falica, The Bear, from Fox Sports, the, uh, emperor of the, uh, Chris Falica podcast empire that is Bear Bets Podcast.
14:21
And of course, he is on Big Noon Saturday with, uh, the whole crew there at Fox Sports for college football. Hello, Chris. How are you, sir?
14:29
I'm just occupying space and taking up time and, and getting you over to, uh- [laughs]... final segment of the show for the, the pioneer innovator and should be Sports Gambling Hall of Famer, Dr. Bob. He prefers legend.
14:40
I just wanna point that out. He prefers legend. Uh, Chris- He's that too...
14:44
before we get to college football though, uh, we just did a segment or we just did a really quick sort of rapid fire thing where Kelly asks, "Are we sure about certain things in the NFL?"
14:52
And I thought his best one was, um, all yours are great, Kelly. Thank you. But I thought your best one was, are we sure that the rookie of the year is going to be one of the quarterbacks? And you think what?
15:03
I am not sure of that at all. Actually earlier this week, uh, coming o- and you don't wanna overreact, but you saw Caleb Williams did not look great.
15:11
You saw Bo Nix was basically d- dumping off two, three yards within the line of scrimmage. Uh, I think Jayden Daniels was fine, but how many games are they going to win?
15:20
Uh, I think there's a real path that for a couple of these wide receivers.
15:23
Uh, I, I bet Xavier Worthy earlier in the week at, at 10 to one because it's clear Chief's offense is going to be fantastic and he's going to have an impact every single game he plays.
15:33
And I bet Brian Thomas, uh, the Jaguars wide receiver- Mm-hmm... at 38 to one, or 28 to one, sorry. Uh, 'cause again, this is a team that they're probably going to score points.
15:43
I mean, they were, they should have won that game in Miami last week.
15:45
But I think, uh, there really is a path for one of these wide receivers specifically, uh, Worthy, who I think you probably could have gotten at a better price, uh, before the year had started. A- and certainly now,
15:56
um, better than, than what he is now, but I still think plus 850 is pretty good. And who knows what's gonna happen with Marvin Harrison? Yeah.
16:03
He obviously was not a p- not a part of that offense week one, but I, I think, I think there is a path for one of those receivers to win.
16:08
Worthy, the fourth shot on the board, if you will, uh, plus 850, this is at DraftKings.
16:13
Marvin Harrison, uh, shorter at eight to one, and of course the two shortest shots, still Caleb Williams at plus 165, Jayden Daniels at three to one in the offensive rookie of the year market.
16:22
Uh, your audio a couple weeks ago wasn't, uh, good enough for you and I to, to go at it on tennis on the women's side, so we missed that opportunity.
16:30
[laughs] But I do wanna take a brief opportunity [laughs] to talk about, uh, National League MVP for a second, which, uh, listen, I thought it was fait accompli. That's French, Kelly.
16:39
Fait accompli, that a done deal, that it, that Shohei Ohtani is the MVP. You see it otherwise, don't you? He, look, Ohtani is probably going to win, but I guess my interpretation of most valuable is, is exactly that.
16:53
We know what the D- look at the Dodgers record the last dozen years. It, we know what the Dodgers are with, with Shohei Ohtani. We know what they are. They're the exact same team without him that they are with him.
17:05
Gonna win the NL West, gonna win 60% of their games or so. They're gonna make the playoffs and I- in, in a loaded lineup. You take Francisco Lindor off the Mets, they're p- they're not a playoff.
17:17
You're not even in the mix for the playoff. They're, they're probably, uh, not even 500.
17:21
The impact that he has in the lineup on the field, like I think if the Mets make the playoffs, I think you can make a really good case because I still do think there may be, again, we have to handicap the voters.
17:33
Who knows how many voters out there may still be like, "Okay, he went to the Dodgers. He could perform the super team. His gambling story is a, is, is a crock of shit. He, people can read between the lines.
17:44
I, I think that he had something more to do with that than they did." There could be some, some, some public perception against him. Now I... look, best offensive, uh, season in the National League, clearly.
17:55
Anytime he pitches and plays the field, MVP obviously. But I think if you're looking for...
18:01
basically, if you give it to him this year, you're saying you're going to give him the MVP every single year the rest of his career. A- and if that's true, then, then fine. It is what it is.
18:10
But, but I think if the Mets make the playoff, there, there, there is a path where, uh, where Lindor could get, could get a good bit of votes in this thing at least It'll be a heck of a lot closer than I think the, the, the market indicates.
18:21
All right, two things. One, not the Megapod. Two, uh, how can I do this respectfully? Man, you cray. I'm sorry, Gil. You cray. Yeah, you- Man, you- You, you, you, you and Will and Todd were, uh- [laughs]...
18:31
were way too much of a, a bad influence on me yesterday, so I apologize for that. Man, Chris thinks he's Alan Boston all of a sudden. Now y- [laughs] The, the, the, the, the Lindor thing, I...
18:39
Listen, you can't prove that the Dodgers wouldn't be as good without, without Shohei. I understand what you're saying historically. I get it, but you can't prove that they would be whatever record they're gonna be.
18:47
He's 47 and 48 right now. If he gets 50-50- Mm-hmm... there is literally no conventional stat where Lindor beats him in anything. You have to go to, like, WAR, right?
18:56
And the, the differing opinions on the WAR to be like, "Well, Lindor is ahead of him in WAR in this co-" You know, I, I just, I, I know you wanna make this a thing, and I know you have a bet, but I just don't think it's gonna happen.
19:05
I do have a bet. Yeah. I have a nice bet, but- [laughs] Just you should probably-... listen... we should have probably prefaced it by saying [laughs] you have a bet.
19:09
Juan Soto should've won the MVP a couple years ago too. [laughs] He should. Now that he should've, uh, at 100 to 1. All right, college football, what do you got? Go. Um, go.
19:19
Uh, starting tonight, UNLV, Kansas under 57 and a half.
19:24
Um, Sammy P was all over this on the pod a, a couple of weeks back about how the Kansas offense, uh, probably is not going to be going as fast as it was without Jason Bean at quarterback.
19:36
With Jalon Daniels coming back, I think people thought that they might be just as fast, just as explosive. That might not be the case. So under 57 and a half against a good, uh, defensive-minded coach in Barry Odom.
19:47
Uh, Notre Dame, Purdue, under 47. Uh, status of Riley Leonard very up in the air, and I would think even if he does play, you're going to see a lot of running from this Notre Dame offense.
19:57
We, we know what Notre Dame games are going to be looking like, uh, this year based on the first couple of games this year. So under 47, uh, Notre Dame, Purdue.
20:06
I took Kennesaw State, uh, I, I know Kelly is familiar with that program, uh, plus 19, uh, against San Jose State. Uh, this is a- Cal...
20:15
I think, this is a spot where you look at San Jose State and Kenny Motololo, they pulled the upset over an academy last week.
20:22
I think this is a really good spot to maybe bet against them coming off of a big win against Air Force. Laying close to 20 points is a, uh, is a lot.
20:30
So I took Kennesaw, who hung around with UTSA in the opener, uh, before getting blown out by the Louisiana Lafayette.
20:37
Uh, I took Tulane plus 13 and a half, uh, against Oklahoma because I think the Oklahoma problems are real, uh, w- without, without Farooq at wide receiver, the offensive line.
20:47
I think Jackson Arnold just hasn't figured out a way to stretch out the field. Uh, Green Wave very easily could have won that game last week. Uh, really, uh, offensive passing experience.
20:57
Ball went against them a- against Kansas State. So I think John Sirmon's team can bounce back here. Their quarterback, Darien Mensah, is really, really good, so, uh, I, I like Tulane here plus 13 and a half.
21:09
And, and I like Missouri now that I see the number's now 15 and a half. It feels like BC is a very popular underdog this week, but, uh, the Missouri offense is much better than what BC faced against Florida State.
21:22
This is not gonna be a, a team where every time, uh, Florida State got the ball, you, you knew that, that offensively they had no problem.
21:28
BC can just blow them off the line of scrimmage, uh, the other way around running Costalanos as well. So, uh, I, I like Missouri here against a, uh [laughs] what looks like a very, a public underdog in BC. Wow.
21:39
Bevy of picks from Chris. All of them- Yeah... all of them again at vsin- vsin.com/picks. Every host, every guest on the network, every sport for subscribers at vsin.com/picks. Real quick, uh, out of here. Mm-hmm.
21:51
I just wanna ask two real quick questions of college football.
21:53
One, this is a sports talk radio question, but I said, and I don't think it's going to happen 'cause I think Notre Dame is terrible, but, uh, not terrible, but they're not elite.
22:01
Um, I don't think they're gonna go 11 and 1, but if they did, you agree with me, they're totally in the playoffs, right? Yeah, ele- 11 and 1, they're absolutely in- Yeah...
22:08
because that would include the, a win, win at the end of the year at USC, and you just have to put yourself in the, the position at that time w- where, uh, you know, last week of the regular season you go to SC and, and win.
22:19
At, uh, 11 and 1 they're absolutely in. Now the question is, will they finish [laughs] 11 and 1? Yeah. That's a, uh, likely a no, so- Yeah... two, two different conversations. That's a whole nother matter.
22:28
And then from your pre-season thoughts to now, um, couple, few weeks into the college football season- Mm-hmm...
22:35
what is the team, either to the good or to the bad, that has surprised you the most, that has caused you to rethink? Uh, I would say Tennessee. Uh, only be- I, I figured that they would be really good offensively.
22:46
I knew they had some impact players on the defensive side of the ball, but how well their defense played and completely, uh, embarrassed and shut down NC State yester- uh, last week rather offensively.
22:57
I, I think you could make a... We, we had this conversation o- on, uh, Bear Bets this week about
23:03
do you feel potentially better about Tennessee making the college football playoff than you do Alabama, uh, a- after two weeks in the season? So I- Interesting...
23:12
I, I think if you're not, if you're not voting the Vols in the top five right now, you're, uh, you're missing the boat. All right, Bear Bets Pod along with our buddy- I'm sorry, Gil. I, I said a bad word.
23:19
[laughs] Please don't, please don't cancel me. I should've said crap. Ladies and gentlemen, potty mouth Chris Falica. [laughs] A regular here on Fridays on the Numbers Game. Uh, @ChrisFalica on Twitter.
23:29
Again, Bear Bets Pod with Will Hill, Sammy P, and of course, Chris Falica. Uh, thank you, sir. Appreciate it. You are welcome. Chris Falica. I'm staying, I'm staying tuned for Fezz and Dr. Bob. There you go.
23:38
Real stars of the show. The anticipation for Bob is just growing. Fezzik's on the other side. Oh, he's got things to say. Things to say next on the NFL.
23:46
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. And don't forget to check out our website, vsin.com.
24:01
Best bets, betting splits, exclusive articles, odds by state, betting tools, betting guides. Check it out the front page right now. A whole bunch of college and pro football, as you would expect.
24:10
Adam Burke with all his week three predictions. Zach Cohen, same thing in college ball. Tulley with his takes. Tulley takes, everybody.
24:18
Steve Makinen with all of his, uh, college plays based on betting splits, power ratings, and trends. Something for everybody. Football all weekend long. College football and NFL all at vsin.com. Uh, it's Gil Alexander.
24:30
We get tweets @BeatingTheBook. Always appreciate the, uh, feedback. Best listeners in the game I'm serious, man. I'm not just saying that. It's, it's so awesome, uh, the sort of response we get here on the show.
24:41
Um, Mike- milehighdavid talking about Sportrade and Alex Kane's appearance. He said, "I use Sportrade and wanna add that their pre-match golf outrights are almost always much better numbers.
24:51
I compare them to my other four outs." Um, let's see. Good friend Chillionaire with his, with his daily Austin Wells tweet I see. Good friend Chillionaire.
25:00
Uh, IceColdGambler, "How could, how could the Colts, uh," call the Colts, he says, "and get old man Joe Flacco?" Or how can they call? I don't know.
25:08
You gotta, you gotta do better on the wording to know which way you're going on that. Johnny Ringo, "Such an amazing Friday show. Only possible improvement would be Bob Seeger, some Bob Seeger or Viddy cameo."
25:17
We're work- we're working on getting Seeger in here. Uh, and then, uh, NJD107, "Kelly's out of his mind if he thinks Tua getting traded to Miami, since the Jets need a viable backup.
25:26
Plus, why would they ever help the Dolphins?" Um, Kip Heusterman says, "As bad as it is for the Dolphins and the options available as free agents, time to call Gerah about Trey Lance."
25:35
And then Jed O'Connor, "Never hearing you swear on air, then in the Megapod makes it sound more genuine, especially when the Bucs were reeling three years ago and you said, 'This is the worst blank in football team I have ever seen.'"
25:45
Yeah, sorry about that. It gets a little feisty on the Megapod. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, part of the football Friday second hour is this gentleman, the only back-to-back winner of the Hilton Super Contest.
25:55
You can follow him on Twitter, @FezzikSports, and he comes to us live in studio. It's Steve Fezzik, everybody. How you doing? You know, it's interesting.
26:03
By the way, I was told there was gonna be Brooklyn's best pizza, but considering it's the morning, it doesn't shock me that it wasn't here. Yeah. I love that. Oh, I'm so sorry. Love that pizza.
26:11
Humans as always, "Steve, can you come in? We got Brooklyn's best." [laughs] I'm like, "Oh, okay. Yeah. I'll, I'll make it soon, yes." Catering for Fezzik, everybody. Catering for Fezzik.
26:19
Hey, let me, let me, uh, let me start w- with this, 'cause I know you have things to say. I, I don't wanna get in your way. But you did make, and I want to share with everybody, let's...
26:28
'Cause I wa- I don't wanna forget this part. You did make some adjusted season win totals bets in the NFL. Care to share? You know, number one, sure.
26:37
Uh, I bet, like, six of them, but the one that really stood out, and unfortunately it has been pulled off, is one of the major, um, providers out there kept the Miami Dolphins up, and the Dolphins were under nine-and-a-half.
26:49
You had to lay, like, minus 134, I think it came back up. In what universe can the Dolphins be lined at nine-and-a-half now?
26:56
And it just goes to show, you hear this all the time, "Oh, the NFL, it's unbeatab- it's unbeatable. It's so, it's so difficult."
27:02
And here's a line, I mean, the Dolphins pre-flop number was nine-and-a-half vig to the over. Well, things couldn't have gone much [laughs] worse- That's right...
27:11
than what they've gone in the past 36 hours, so, uh, 24 hours. So I mean, the Dolphins, realistically, if I had to set a number on the Dolphins, f- I, I don't know. I, I mean, maybe, maybe eight. What do you think?
27:24
Would you go over or under eight? Well, this is the thing about it, again, we talked about this on the Megapod.
27:28
Joe Peta was on and we talked about the old Lehman Brothers off-the-grid stock market thing that we used to do- Oh, yes...
27:34
that originated there, and this is, this is well before legalized sportsbook did adjusted season win totals, so it gives you a sort of education on these kind of things.
27:42
They have to be adjusted pretty aggressively at this point. I mean, that is, I mean, the Tua thing obviously being the biggest factor in that.
27:49
Um, you know, one and one is probably what they, what I think you could have assumed them to be, so you would say, "Well, what, then why would they be adjusted that much th- from nine-and-a-half pre-flop?"
27:59
But the Tua part is the factor here, right? That's the one that changes the dynamic of the team, and it's gonna cause them to be underdogs in places where they would not have otherwise been.
28:08
And people are like, "Oh, there's not much of a drop-off to Skylar Thompson." It's like, like, like, like, "What are you smoking?" Yeah.
28:15
You know, it's like you're already t- talking about we [laughs] you know, we, we need to bring in some stiff backup like Joe Flacco is 105.
28:21
[laughs] You know, obviously if Joe Flacco's better than your starting quarterback, I know he went 11 and five with Cleveland. Um, Cleveland Picks on, uh, Twitter tweets, "Flacco is ours.
28:31
Signed a Cleveland Browns fan who is gearing up for an impending Watson suspension for his latest off-the-field issue." [laughs] So they're, they're claiming him, uh, tightly. So, so danger math coming. So- Yeah...
28:41
Tua's maybe a point and a half better than an average quarterback. Skylar Thompson's maybe three and a half points worse, so you got a five-point difference. You got 16 games rema- remaining. 16 times five.
28:50
Do, do, that's 80. I stole that from you. So that's like 80 po- 80 points. [laughs] So how much is 80 points with the win? [laughs] Yeah. Um, that's like 2.2 wins.
28:58
So boom, if Miami was supposed to be nine and a half, that gets me to, you know, 7.3, but obviously this doesn't figure in the fact that Tua could come back or they could find some kind of better backup.
29:10
So maybe eight might be a little low. I'll go 8.3. Well, 8.3 sounds about right. I'll give you that. Um, you had a question for me you wanted to ask. You did a little show and tell here with this ticket.
29:19
Oh, let me, let me f- I, I did wanna answer your question- Oh... because a couple other teams. I bet the Raiders under six and a half. Oh, yes, I'm sorry. Yeah, go ahead. Lay $125. I think that's outstanding.
29:27
Repea- repeat that again. Of Raiders under six and a half wins minus $1.25. I'm driving and I'm listening to local- Yeah... talk show. They're like, "The Raiders season is over."
29:34
[laughs] Uh, I played the Bengals under nine and a half. Okay.
29:38
And how, I mean, I know they were a pre-flop 10 and a half, but, but they just lost.77 wins because they were, you know, that, that, that was their win share on week one.
29:47
And as bad as they looked, already a two-point adjustment on the Kansas City line, I think that was a slam dunk. Those, those were two more that I bet.
29:54
On your second question- Well, before you get to the second question, just thought I have a follow-up.
29:57
So you get a $40 pass post fine on the first answer, and I want, I, I bring this up because you are the first person to text me and get really angry at guests when I ask them a question and they give an answer of a line that is no longer there, but you see how they can run into that trouble if I ask them, "Oh, what's your favorite?"
30:13
Or, "Hey, what are the three you made?" The first thing out of your mouth was something the nine and a half might not be available everywhere. So you see how this is a conundrum.
30:20
You can't get mad at these guests for giving you a- Fair enough... bad spot. So, but I only get fined $40, not $120- No...
30:25
because the next two that I did give are available, and I thought you were gonna fine me, so because of that, I specifically interrupted your question- Oh... so I could give two that were available- [laughs] I see...
30:33
so I wouldn't be in so much heat. That's it. I, I do have a question for you. Gil Alexander. Yes. So week two, the Seattle, the very capable Seahawks- Yeah... are at the New England Patriots.
30:44
What is the best number I could possibly have bet on Seattle?
30:48
And I'm going, people say it's so hard to beat the NFL, and I'm gonna come over the top and say it's one of the most easy to beat sports, and I'm gonna use this game as an example. What number could I bet?
30:57
I'm gonna disclose, I bet this during the summer, Seattle at New England. Oh, you bet it during the summer. What number did I get on Seattle? They're currently a minus 3.3 favor.
31:04
When I say minus 3.3, that means it's three to three and a half. Well, it was under three, wasn't it? It was. So it was either two or two and a half, maybe one and a half. Read that off. It is Seattle minus one.
31:15
So think about this. Yeah. During the summer I bet Seattle minus one.
31:19
Well, things couldn't have gone much worse than New England crushing the Bengals with a great defense of New England massively over-exceed expectations, Seattle met expectations.
31:29
If New England had gotten rolled in that game, this line would be five or maybe four and a half. Right. And so despite the fact that New England played so far above their heads their noses are gonna bleed for a month,
31:40
in the jungle I'm still staring at, like, a closing line value that's just tremendous. And heck, if I just wanted to earn off of this, people are like, "Well, you got a middle to earn off of this."
31:50
I mean, I could just bet plus 150, you know? Okay. And, and, and earn off of it that way. Could I, could I play point-counterpoint with you? Sure.
31:56
Not everyone listening is as, and I say this lovingly, not anyone, not everyone listening is as meshuggana as you are, right? Who is, who is- Meshugga what? [laughs] Meshuggana.
32:04
[laughs] Who, who are betting stuff in the middle of the summer, right? You...
32:08
And, and absolutely, I say this is, by the way, I brought this up on the Megapod, I think this is the greatest point Todd Wishnev has ever made.
32:14
The thing about you is people know you, like, I, I always say, real life, nice guy. Twitter, horrible human being.
32:20
But the truth is, is that that guy on Twitter, Todd brought this up, which I think is so great, isn't it ironic that the, that the most arrogant guy on Twitter is actually the most humble when it comes to betting NFL?
32:32
Because you respect the market so much that you remove your opinion largely, you have some opinion, but you, you largely do it mechanically.
32:42
You are just looking for the best of it, completely just, um, you know, religiously in that respect. And so that's actually the most humble way to bet the NFL.
32:53
And Todd points out it's guys like me and him who have so many opinions that we'll never be as successful, because we actually, by having opinions, think we are smarter than the market more than we ought to think that.
33:06
I think that's the most fascinating thing about you, is that you're all these different people, right? You're that horrible human being on Twi- [laughs] Twitter. Horrible.
33:13
Just- You're the worst- Make Phil Hellmuth- Let me just say this, Steve... look like a Disney character.
33:17
You're the worst human being ever on Twitter, but you are the most humble bettor, and this is a great example of that. You have to respect the market.
33:23
To use, like, a, a really cheesy analogy, like the big, bad dragon in, um, The Hobbit, Smaug. Right. He, he's going down to kick butt in Lake Town, right? And he's getting too close to the lake and he's like...
33:33
And remember, he's like, y- "No army can stand up to Smaug." And he's like, "The lake is mightier than I." [laughs] "I, I can't go into the lake- [laughs]...
33:40
because that lake is going to cause me all kinds of problems as a fire-breathing dragon." But, but I wanna get, I, I don't know about the lake part, but I wanna get to the point- [laughs]...
33:47
about you doing this in the summer. Let's say, let's say the person, n- you know, people listening don't do this stuff in the summer. In the middle of May, they have jobs.
33:55
Uh, middle of June, middle of July, they're not like you who, who is always looking for the best numbers, like, "Oh, yeah, Todd, there's a two and a half. Get it. Get it."
34:03
You, they can do it from week to week, though, as well. A g- great question. I'm gonna c- I'm gonna give one out, and it is widely available, so there will be no fines on this one. Yes.
34:11
So I could make a case, week two here, the Vikings, I'm very excited about the Vikings, how well they played. Darnold might be a capable starting quarterback.
34:19
So I like the Vikings hosting San Francisco, catching five points, all right? But let me ask you this. Who's better, um, San Francisco or the Houston Texans, Gil Alexander? Why don't we get that answer on the other side?
34:33
You'll stick around for another one? Absolutely. Even after I called you meshuggana and said you're the worst person on Earth on Twitter? I'm looking it up. Okay. Steve Fezzik. Voldemort.
34:40
And that answer next on A Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on A Numbers Game, where sports betting lives.
34:54
Gil Alexander live from Circa. Steve Fezzik kind enough to hang out with us for a second segment. But prior to Fezzik, we get tweets @BeatingTheBook, always appreciate it.
35:01
Again, JasonH11, "Kelly, don't sleep on Tannehill. He's..." Sorry, couldn't stop laughing. I was gonna try and make a joke, but I can't. Not a, not a believer in Tannehill, in other words.
35:09
Nevadazer, "I believe AFC front offices need to be more prudent and realistic how they spend. Miami needed to truly ask the right questions. Needs to. Can this team beat Kansas City as currently constructed?
35:18
Do we need to re-up the quarterback? Can we wait? Answer is no. Nothing wrong with a little patience." New York Mets 16, "Of all the quarterbacks that you mentioned, who throws the best deep ball?
35:27
'Cause that, isn't that what suits Miami best? Deep to Tyreek opens up the slants to Waddle. I'm sure that quarterback will be able to hand off to Mostert and A-Chan."
35:36
This is from Nash, last name Nash, "With The Numbers Game, I anxous- [laughs] I anxiously anticipate two things every week, the Pioneers appearance every Friday and the name of the sushi spot."
35:45
Well, you'll get one of those just to follow VSiN. Uh, Madden2000Hack always talking about the Megapod. D'Angelo Hall, uh, moving to kick return and wide receiver, which is like Bo Jackson in Tecmo Bowl.
35:54
Somehow D'Angelo Hall came up on the Megapod. StatLogicSports, "The Dodgers aren't the same team with, with and without him.
36:01
He's carried a team with tons of pitching injuries this year and injuries to key position players. Not a legit argument from Falica. And what doesn't matter is anyone's interpretation of MVP.
36:09
We can all create narratives." Thank you, that's what I was trying to tell him. Uh, and this is from, let's see, this is from Brian Schaeffer. "Ohtani is winning the Triple Crown and a 50/50 candidate.
36:18
What are we even talking about, Falica? I hate the Dodgers, but come on, he's on Barry Lamar Bond status." Well, now easy on the Barry Lamar Bonds, but you're absolutely right, Brian Schaeffer. He's not gonna win it.
36:28
Uh, uh, Lindor is not gonna win it, that is. And, um, we do have one more of that. This is, uh, [laughs] from FoxPhil, uh, PhillyGambler.com.
36:36
He says, "LOL, Chris Falica campaigning for Lindor NL MVP simply due to having an open wager. Makes sense, Gil. You out yo dang mind," he said. Yes. [laughs] I, I went with you cray, but that works as well.
36:47
Um, we love Chris. Eh, we had a little struggle in that, uh, segment with something else, but we'll get to that. Uh, Steve Fezzik, oh, I see you have your fine money. Thank you very much. Yeah, here we go.
36:55
It's like, uh, I gave out Miami under nine and a half wins. It had just gone off the board at the, at the, it, it was FanDuel that had it, so they don't have it anymore, so it pass posted a line not available.
37:04
There's $40. Thank you very much. It's for the crew. Thank you. Donuts, whatever. Appreciate that. [laughs] Uh, you asked me a question before the break I'm supposed to answer. Yeah.
37:11
So, um, I wanted to ask you, who's better, San Francisco or you- the very capable Houston Texans, and by about how many points? Uh, the San Francisco 49ers, most will have power rated, uh,
37:22
p- power rated higher than them, and I would say it's by about, uh, uh, depending on the situation, but somewhere in the two and a half point range. I can accept that. Okay. I'd make it three- Okay...
37:32
but we're right in the same point. Yeah. So here's where I'm going, so it's like buying a house and we're looking at comps.
37:36
So you want to bet the Vikings week two, while they're home with a big home field advantage against the Niners, they're catching five.
37:42
But the very next week, the Vikings are home again and they're playing Houston and they're catching four. So doo, doo, doo, wait, wait, that's a one-point difference. By the way, it's boop, boop, boop, boop, boop.
37:51
Thank you. Uh-huh. And corrected. Yeah. And there's only been, there's only one point difference in those point spreads, but there's a two and a half point difference in your power ratings.
37:59
So thus, if you like the Vikings plus five against San Francisco, then Blue Horseshoe loves the Vikings plus four- [laughs]... against the Houston Texans.
38:09
A, uh, a Texans team, frankly, that, um, didn't even cover at Indianapolis, and so, although it probably should have. Uh, put me down official play, widely available- Yeah... plus four- But I-... Minnesota week three...
38:22
and this, so this is a g- good example of what we were talking about in the last segment about how you bet football, and again, it is very, with Stevie, it's very mechanical, and that's a good thing in the NFL.
38:31
Again, Todd's comment, I think, is great, which is that you are actually more humble. You have more humility than we do when you approach the NFL. And so for you, it's like, it's real easy to beat. This is all you do.
38:42
Now, it should be pointed out, because you have not only won the back-to-back, uh, Super Contests, but last year you finished what at Circa? 21st in the millions. 20- 21st, and people were giving you incoming on that.
38:53
They're like, "Ah, you suck. You haven't won in a long time." Oh, he ca- he c- Fez collapsed down the stretch. [laughs] He was in second place at Thanksgiving- I love that...
39:00
and he, and he finished 21st, and, and they're, they're largely correct. I basically, you know, hit 500, and when there's 5,000 guys, it's like the World Series of Poker. Yeah. You misplay your queens- But-...
39:10
and y- you head to the rail. [laughs] But the, the point is, is that more often than not, you will contend in these massive contests, not every year, right? Not every year.
39:18
Some, some years it doesn't work out that way with this strategy. Yes. But usually you will. Yeah. That's why you're consistent. How are you doing in the, uh, in the humans, uh, Friday night Invitational Pro-Am?
39:28
Well, I don't pay much attention. It's- [laughs]... it's really, it's really early, and Chuck Adel has the lead. Yeah. But I am tied with him, yes, for first. Yeah.
39:35
By the way, it's not the humans Pro Invitation- [laughs]... Pro-Am Invitational. It is called the- The, the, uh, the Circa Invitational, Derek Stevens, um, is fantastic with that- Yeah...
39:44
and really spends a lot of time and input, and, uh, we all love Derek. The, uh, yes, we do.
39:51
The Tua Tagovailoa concussion last night, and the, uh, resulting, and it was again, the fencing response is just, it jars you watching it.
39:59
But it does, again, sorry to be callous about this, it does bring up another betting point about season-long props with players, 'cause your strategy is- Unders across the board. Skill position players- Yeah...
40:13
and it's basically a free roll, where 20% of your bets you make, you're gonna win automatically because the player's gonna play 13 or fewer games, just th- the nature of the beast with these injuries. Yeah.
40:25
Um, I hate to say it, but that's just a sound thing, right? You are, you know, injuries help you no matter what, and, and anyone who bets overs, that's what you're worried about. It's very simple- Exactly...
40:35
in that regard. Yeah. Now, now real important, this won't work in the NBA, okay? Because the NBA does not set how many, um, yards i- or how many points in this case- Mm-hmm... that Embiid is going to score.
40:47
It's all based upon a average per game. So when, when [laughs] a player misses 40 games load management, like he's actually more likely to score- Yeah... in the few games that he plays. So don't do this in the NBA.
40:58
All right, Mr. Smarty Pants. Can I call you that? Um, would you like to share at least a week two NFL pick with everybody? Uh, sure.
41:04
One that I've got big opposition and so, by the way, I lo- I love Todd Wishnev, and if you missed the massacre at Duck Creek, Todd came out here. Todd weighs like- [laughs]... 400 pounds now. No- And he just-...
41:14
he does not... and, you know, he's, he's heading back to 300. Yes. So he's d- he's... But, but, but Todd, he basically on one leg and no hips- Yeah... whacked Gilly and I. Yeah. And then Gilly whacked me on top of that.
41:25
To answer your question, answer the question, Steve, um, I have opposition here.
41:29
I have a very well-known service that will remain, remain nameless, you know, Rass, um, going the opposite way, but I, I, I, I, I just don't understand, uh, the spot for the Jets is so bad at Tennessee.
41:42
So think about it. The Jets don't get home to their houses probably until 10:00 AM- Mm-hmm... on Tuesday. Then on Saturday, they gotta get on a plane to Tennessee.
41:50
I only have the Jets in my power ratings three and a half points better. So on a neutral, and my ratings might be a little off, possibly so, but on a neutral, I make the game three and a half.
41:59
The spot overwhelmingly favors Tennessee, and Tennessee off a phony loss to the Bears, as phony as phony will be, um, where they easily won the stat- stats and held the Bears down 140 yards.
42:09
So in what will likely be a low-scoring game, I lean under. I'm on the Titans plus four. You're on the Titans plus four.
42:16
Um, you were asking also off air, you're like, "Oh, did, did, did Kelly," you said Kelly specifically, but this could apply to me too. "Did, did you all take the Dolphins in Circa?"
42:23
No, it was minus three on the Dolphins last night on Circa. So they saved us, 'cause no- well, we're like, "I'm not playing that." And, and I'm bad. And I'm sure Kelly felt the same way.
42:31
I never, I never, ever submit on Thursday, 'cause I like to have the extra, you know, uh, f- 60 hours to make my decisions in terms of- Best information possible you want. Exactly. Yeah. I guess 48 hours in this case.
42:40
Yeah. But in, but I would've seriously considered, if I would've known it was three, I would've cons- seriously considered at three taking Buffalo, but no way I would've like gone with Buffalo at two and a half.
42:48
But at three, I, I, I might've played one of my entries. So yeah, no big deal. I love having- I, I love submitting later. I think it's one of the big mistakes contest players do- Yeah...
42:57
is they submit, either they submit too early with the Thursday game, or they submit too late- [laughs]... and they don't put in their picks.
43:03
[laughs] I, I have to g- I have to go to California after the show, and I am already in my head I'm like, "Don't forget to put in your picks. Don't forget to put in your picks." Like, it's a whole thing- Hey...
43:10
'cause I'm not gonna get back till after the, uh, deadline tomorrow night. Um, all right, we have time.
43:13
I'm not gonna ask you to reveal two of your picks every week when you come on, but since we have a little time, would you care to share one other thought on one other play? I'll, I'll probably be Vikings.
43:21
I think the spot's really bad for... I, I'll bet m- I, I, I would love to bet more, there's just not enough of a market for it, that week three play with the Vikings, but I'm high on the Vikings.
43:30
I like what I saw, y- you know, just crushing the Giants. What's interesting, the market is not throwing the Giants in the trash can. They're getting plenty of support against Washington this week. Um, but, um,
43:42
C-Max very likely not to play.
43:44
Um, Sam Fran, you got the Super Bowl hangover, and it, and didn't look like it affected them week one, but so much mileage on their tires from last year and all those really tough playoff games, you have to feel they're gonna excel, really nice Monday Night Football win, and, uh, this is a game, you know, go into Minnesota and just try to get the win.
44:02
Biggest mistake you see betters making in the NFL, period, blanket statement. They're- Biggest mistake...
44:08
they're, they approach it like a final exam, so they spend all week studying, you know, reading up everything, listening to all these podcasts, including the Megapod, which is tremendous- Thank you...
44:18
especially with that Todd Wischnew who- [laughs]... is wildly entertaining. Yes.
44:23
Um, and then it's like, okay, it's time to take the exam, and so, like, whenever they bet, like Friday or Saturday, they're like, "All right, now I'm gonna make my bets. Boom, boom, boom, boom."
44:32
And they're like, "I'll shop for the best number at that point in time- Yeah... and, and set it and forget it, and it's absolutely not the right way to go. Because you got the bets from way back when.
44:39
Well, and it's, it's a, it's a cycle. It's like you, like literally the, the, the lines are boop, boop, up and down, up and... I can't do that like you. Go ahead. Boop, boop, boop, boop. There it is. Yeah.
44:48
So it, what famously, like a friend of mine, the Hitman, like he does a static show on Wednesday, and he had a really terrible record when he had to give out his best bet like every Wednesday at a certain time.
44:59
He had like... But in his own bets, he had one of the greatest records ever. He just crushed it, because literally he'll come out and he'll say, "Okay, the news just came out on this information.
45:08
Um, obviously C-Max is not playing, so I'm gonna play the other guys, you know, to, to, to have more carries." That's how people win, by betting right when the information's breaking and getting the best of the numbers.
45:18
Care to say something nice about Dr. Bob in 10 seconds? Dr, Dr. Bob is the most fantastic... Seriously, and I, in all honesty, what I love about Dr.
45:23
Bob, he used to have all these three stars because his math model had games off six points, and he doesn't compromise himself.
45:28
He doesn't sell three-star Battlestar Galactica games of the year with huge edges, because the edges have eroded somewhat versus where they were 20 years ago. Thank you, Stevie. Dr.
45:37
Bob next on The Numbers Game at Vs, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
A Numbers Game
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