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Sep 17, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | September 17, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | September 17, 2024
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander.
0:18
This is Kelly Bidlin, producer number nine, so much more than a producer. Um, did I miss anything last night? Should I know about anything? Anything? I mean, yeah, there was a couple things, Gil. Okay. All right.
0:28
There were a couple things. Uh, you know, a couple things. All right. Maybe, maybe we'll ca- A couple great baseball games... may- maybe you'll catch me up in a bit.
0:33
Uh, on the show today, Will Hill will join us, all his bets across the, uh, sports betting landscape. Paul Spohrer on baseball. Todd Wright will join us, talk some fantasy. Yeah. Wanna do a fantasy segment?
0:44
What's To- Let's do it, man... Todd Wright, the, uh, the greatest, uh, r- sports talk radio host there ever was. I will not be debated on this subject. Go- Up All Night with Todd Wright.
0:50
It was actually All Night with Todd Wright back in the day on ESPN Radio. We will talk fantasy with him. But we begin, oh, by the way, you see everything else we're doing. Power rankings.
1:00
My power rankings last week was for Cachta. Just gotta tell you that, Kelly. [laughs] Um- I think I kinda did the same thing this week, though- Yeah...
1:06
where I was like, I was sending in yours, and I'm like, "Wait, I think I'm missing a team on mine." [laughs] This was a very, very odd power rankings week. We'll get into that.
1:14
Uh, NFC South odds with the Bryce Young benching, and now Andy Dalton at the helm for the Panthers. About last night, great '80s film, by the way, with, uh, Demi Moore. About last night, Atlanta and Philly. Oh, my God.
1:29
Or as I texted, "Oh, my God." What was that? Uh, Nick Sirianni, we're about to talk. Let's go back to the, uh, first half though first. Scoreless game.
1:39
Philadelphia, excuse me, Philadelphia has a fourth and four at the Atlanta nine. This is late first quarter, Kelly. And, uh, Nick Sirianni decides we're gonna go for it, 'cause he's allergic to field goals.
1:49
Hurts incomplete, intended for Goddard. We remain scoreless. Um, let's just go to, let's go to the second half.
1:55
By the way, I just wanna point this out, 'cause we were pointing, yesterday when I was talking about, uh, previewing this game, was mentioning the, uh, the ESPN Stats & Information piece about how Atlanta, first week of the season against Pittsburgh, when they were in shotgun, they passed 100% of the time.
2:08
When they were in pistol, they ran over 90% of the time. You had to be more creative, Zach Robinson, and they were. Cousins was under center- Yep... in the first half, 16 of 31 snaps. So they mixed it up at least.
2:20
Halftime score seven to six. Uh, the, the Eagles were up. By the way, we'll get to the Belichick, Eli, uh, Bel- Belichick-Manning cast about that sequence at the end. But seven to six was the score at the half.
2:33
Inter-, um, Philly was up. Nine to seven Atlanta now, after they, they got a field goal. Then 10 to nine, let's pick it up late third quarter, 10 to nine Philadelphia. Atlanta, fourth and four at their own 47.
2:45
They're down a point late in the third quarter. I couldn't believe they went for this. They did, and they converted. Cousins to Ray-Ray McCloud for 11. I thought that was way too early in a one-point game to risk that.
2:58
But they get the 11 yards to Ray-Ray. Next play, Cousins to Darnell Mooney for 42, somersaults into the end zone, touchdown. Atlanta up 15 to 10. The two-point try fails. 1:21 left third quarter.
3:09
Philadelphia, fourth and inches at the Atlanta 46. Now in the fourth quarter, Tuchus Push convert Hurts for three. Ultimately, it leads to a 17-play, 70-yard drive that took 9 minutes 34 seconds off the clock.
3:22
That is vintage Eagles. Hurts from one out. 16-15 Philly, and the two-point try was good. 18-15 Eagles. 6:47 to go. Then Atlanta has a fourth and one at their own 41.
3:35
Remember, they're down three now with, uh, less than six minutes to play. Bijan just gets popped behind the line of scrimmage, fails, and the Eagles get the ball up three, and they go into Eagle mode.
3:46
And, and if you're a bettor in this game on the Falcons, you're only thinking to yourself, "Wow, is this gonna be another push if you had the six? Are we gonna lose this? What's going on here?"
3:56
Philadelphia, 11 plays, 29 yards is what the drive ends up being. It ends up taking 3:59. Elliott ends up with a 28-yard field goal. Obviously, everybody knows to make it a six-point game with 1:39.
4:07
But let us break that down, y'all. [laughs] They get it to third and one at the Atlanta 18, up 18 to 15, two minutes left in the game. They're up three. Atlanta has all three timeouts left. Now, Atlanta correctly, Kelly,
4:23
tries to jump offsides, which is the correct play- Yeah...
4:26
at that point, uh, to give Philly an automatic first down so that they could reset the downs knowing that it was likely the Eagles would get a yard, and they'd have to call their first timeout before the new set of downs.
4:36
Sirianni then correctly, let me give him his flowers on this, Sirianni then correctly declines that, which is the proper play by him, countermeasure. Philly does get its yard. Atlanta uses their first timeout.
4:48
So with 1:56 left, up three, first and 10 at the Atlanta 17, that's where we are with Atlanta having two timeouts left. It ends up third and three at the Atlanta 10. Philly still up three, 1:46 left.
5:01
Atlanta now out of timeouts. If Philly runs, and they were ga- and they were gaining at a clip of 5.5 yards a carry, Hurts, Jalen Hurts was gaining at a clip of 6.5 yards a carry, and you know about the Tuchus Push.
5:13
They invented it. They perfected it. They can still count on two yards on that, or at least positive yardage no matter what.
5:20
If they do any of that, which has worked all night, you probably advance the ball a yard or two, maybe even get a first down, but more importantly, the clock goes down 40 seconds.
5:29
And then if you're Philly, you get to make a fourth-down decision. Maybe you Tuchus Push it again a second straight time to get it. Either way, you, you, you do that, and you extend the clock.
5:40
The clock is the most important thing. The clock is your friend. The one thing you cannot do, and I know there were people on Twitter who were, who were, there was a few people on Twitter who were pushing back on this.
5:49
They're like, "Oh, it was an easy little play. You know, it was in the flat. Saquon should've caught it." Saquon has had the most drops since two, 2021 of any running back.
5:58
But for- forgetting that little note Forgetting that little note.
6:01
The only thing you cannot do in that situation is stop the clock, because then Atlanta gets 40 more seconds and they can matriculate the ball down the field with 40 more se- that's five more plays. And what do they do?
6:15
They call the pass, and the one bit of risk is that it dr- it, that you drop it, and that's what happened. And I immediately texted, "Oh my God," 'cause this game was over, Kelly.
6:25
This, this thing was p- was more than likely over. Atlanta ball down three. 1:46 left in this ballgame. Let's call it 1:42 to be exact. And then of course what happens? Atlanta...
6:40
By the way, then there's, I, I have to stop there, because then Philly opted on f- on fourth down to kick the field goal, which some people, and I think correctly so, would argue, and a lot of people will push back on this, if you kick the field goal there, which they did, to go up six points, right?
6:59
Then Atlanta has to score a touchdown. If you don't kick the field goal there, and remember, let's say you ran a play that didn't get there- Mm...
7:08
Atlanta, with now about a minute left, is not as incentivized to get the touchdown and matriculate the ball all the way down the field. A field goal will tie the game, will push overtime.
7:17
So it was another reason for Philadelphia to go for it, because it changes the calculus for the Falcons as well. Now, you can't prove that, but it does. So there's that little detail, too.
7:28
Anyway, they kick the field goal. Uh, they go up 16 to 10- excuse me, they go up, uh, six points. They go up, uh, 21 to 15. Pardon me.
7:36
Cousins, and then it's, and then it's Atlanta just, like, as if they had no problem going down the field. No pressure on Cousins the whole way. Cousins to Pitts for 11. Cousins to Mooney for 21. Cousins to Mooney for 26.
7:46
At this point, I am actually texting, "Don't score too quickly." Yeah. Yeah, yeah. Then Cousins to London for five incomplete. And then Cousins to London from seven out. Touchdown. Touchdown. 22-21.
7:58
Uh, excuse me, 21-21, pardon me. Tie game. Unsportsmanlike conduct on Drake London for mimicking gunfire. By the way, there's a lot of people like, "Why is that a 15-yard penalty?" The NFL has been consistent about this.
8:10
There were 13 Pittsburgh Steelers that got fined for doing this in a celebration back in 2022. So you can't do that. It makes the extra point, the go-ahead extra point from Younghoe Koo, a 48-yarder.
8:22
And of course he sinks it, 'cause as we, uh, have talked about, no kicker misses anything anymore. Uh, and the Falcons go up 22-21 with 34 seconds left in the game. Nick Sirianni with the malpractice of all time.
8:35
You cannot throw the football there. I'm sorry, you can't, no matter how easy it sounds. The only thing you can't have there is the clock stopping, and the incomplete pass made it, made it stop. Now, 34 seconds left.
8:46
There's one more thing to talk about with the Ph- with the Eagles. They get the ball. They got two timeouts. They just need a field goal. Goddard for 13. Timeout. 27 seconds left.
8:56
Then they're at their own 43 at this point. So for Jake Elliott to be in field goal range, Jake Elliott is great. You get 20 more yards from your 43, that's a 50, b- b- b- b- b- 54-yard field goal for Elliott.
9:10
You get 15 more yards, it's a 59er. But let's just, uh, let's just say it's 20 yards and you get a 54. That's kinda chip shotty for Elliott. I hate to say it.
9:18
Sure, you could miss it, but you know how it goes these days, and Elliott has shown a propensity in his career to hit really long clutch field goals to win games, even north of 60 yards.
9:27
So you only need 15, 20 more yards, and then Hurts goes deep. Like, you didn't need all that on the play, and it's picked off by Jesse Bates. Ballgame. 785 more survivor entries toast. And
9:42
Nick Sirianni costs his team the game, in my opinion. Saves the Falcons' season, perhaps, with that decision, as the Falcons go to one and one. And I just, I just cannot believe what it was that we saw.
9:57
That was not even, Kelly, in my thinking w- that was even a possibility that he would call a pass there. And yet he did. Just run the ball, tuchus, push it, whatever you need to do, but you can't do that. Yeah.
10:11
The, um, I find the field goal conversation almost more interesting- It's a fascinating one...
10:17
because we, 'cause like you said, we've been talking for, for, I mean, multiple weeks now about how these kickers from 50 plus are automatics. I... That, that part becomes... You, you're gonna hate me a little bit.
10:29
If I'm making the calls, it is run, run. It is run on third, run on fourth. With th- at third and three, and with the tush push, everything that the Eagles got. They got one of the best offensive lines in the league.
10:41
You got a stud running back who's looked like a stud all game. I'm running it and I'm running it twice, and I'm not even thinking about it. Why would I hate you for that?
10:49
Why you're gonna hate me is because if Saquon Barkley makes a catch that he's made 1,000 times before in the flat, we're not ta- we're... This isn't even a conversation. But that's, but, but- Or if the defense-...
10:59
that's, that's not the point. And someone- It's not the point. It's not the point... someone, someone said this on Twitter too. It's not the point. That's not the point.
11:03
There is a risk/reward assessment you have to make. The possibility exists that that ball gets dropped, and it's 40 more seconds for the Falcons. Yeah, I agree. That shifts the win probability dramatically.
11:15
You can't do that. It wasn't, I wasn't even thinking... There wasn't even a possibility. And Sirianni's like, "Well, watch this, buddy." [laughs] Oh, no, no, no.
11:23
Nick Sirianni, uh, was glad to, uh, throw it on Kellen Moore after the game. [laughs] Saquon, Saquon Barkley, I didn't even know this stat. Saquon Barkley, 16 drops. They put this up on the screen yesterday.
11:33
16 drops since 2021. Most of any running back in the NFL. But even without that, that's not the point. The point is you don't even allow for that possibility to happen. They did.
11:44
Eagles lose, Falcons win, and a whole bunch of survivors go down with them. More on this, all your tweets next. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:00
Back on The Numbers Game Live, it's Cirka Gill, Alexander Kelly, Bidlin. Let me quantify what we were just talking about with Sirianni's decision. Uh, next gen stats.
12:07
The Falcons had just a 0.7% chance of winning with 1:56 left in the fourth quarter, according to the NGS win proba- uh, win probability model.
12:17
The comeback is the seventh most improbable win in [laughs] in the- [laughs]... next gen stats era since 2016. Seventh most improbable win. Oh, man.
12:28
So again, for those who are like, "I don't know, I kinda like the pass," uh, no. I'm sorry.
12:32
Uh, y- Gil, it's a great play running on fourth down after you run, after you run the ball on third [laughs] if you don't make it. Oh my God. [laughs] Uh, we get tweets at Beating the Book.
12:42
Always appreciate the feedback. And as you imagine, there's a, there's a whole bunch, uh, on this, which I, uh, which, which I love. DJ Sly Bry. Oh, Sly Bry, he's a big Eagles fan.
12:51
He says, "More interested in winning with pizzazz than just running the ball and clock," talking about Sirianni.
12:56
"More interested in winning with pizzazz than just running the ball and clock, and there was no need for that low percentage throw for the killer INT. You don't need to get to the 20 for Elliott either.
13:03
The 35 would've gotten done. Multiple fireable offenses." Yeah. Uh, preach. Preach indeed from DJ Sly Bry. Uh, this is from Bud- oh, Buddhist Man. "Kicking the field goal is the worst of all the decisions.
13:17
Taking the three there forces Atlanta to go for the win as opposed to playing for the field goal to tie." Exactly what we said. Yes. JRob59190973, 'cause 59190972 was taken.
13:27
[laughs] "Just run the ball and take the 45 seconds off the clock. That's Kellen Moore trying to be cute and failing miserably. But earlier, take the field goal on the second drive and it's a m- it's a moot point also."
13:37
We mentioned that. Uh, a lot of people are gonna go back to the first quarter, and I, I, I a- It's fair... I agree with that. I agree. Yeah.
13:42
That, that's why, that's why I reviewed it, because fourth and four in a scoreless game, yeah, uh, get three points. Why not? How- It, it was like fourth and four, like at the nine? At the nine. Something like that?
13:53
Yeah, I'm kicking there. Uh, Alex Ivanov 904, "Average 5.5 yards per carry, but yeah, let's throw it. LOL." [laughs] Uh, we pointed that out as well.
14:01
DJ Sly Bry came back with, he goes, "If I wasn't at the game and an Eagles lifer, I'd tweet Mario Cristobal is laughing at the end of the game coaching by Sirianni."
14:08
Uh, this from, you can just roll through these guys, JayGood96, "The malpractice was forcing it into double coverage with a timeout 15 yards from field goal range." Yeah, all of our points here.
14:18
Uh, MikeStack919, uh, S9- S19, "If I'm the owner, he's fired. 100. Gone. No more. I'm sorry." Well, we already said before the year that because he's got two new coordinators in- Yeah...
14:30
Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio, he might be the weird guy that has a line to being fired first. That didn't help. Uh, BG Linhart, "Too tush push, Gilly. Too tush push." I'm with it, brother. You're right, man. Yeah.
14:41
That, that's, that's the point. Our own Matt Brown, MattBrownM2, "Hertz was averaging 6.5 yards per carry. It's a no-brainer." He's right.
14:48
Matt Brown also believes in the fact that you shouldn't have kicked the field goal there either. Alexandra- [laughs] Really? Oh, this... Yeah, he says- Did Alex say this?... he says don't kick the field goal.
14:56
He's right. He, because it changes how a team then plays the next drive. By the way- Yeah... I mean, we didn't make enough of that. Like, the Eagles just went to a sieve at that point.
15:06
Not that they were great defensively all game, 'cause Bijan was killing them. Yeah. Bijan with 14 carries, not 15. I know somebody had the prop at 14 and a half, and he just fell short of 100 yards.
15:14
But, I mean, that was unbelievable. Kirk Cousins was just un-pressured the whole way down. This is a great one.
15:20
Alex Apostolis, [laughs] I knew there would be one person, "Holy crap, Philadelphia got a first down at the two-minute warning- [laughs]... with the lead in field goal range and I turned it off. What?" [laughs] Oh, man.
15:29
Yeah, it's not a good... You just probably shouldn't turn those off. Uh, Tony's Markets Tip. Okay, this is, let's, let's segue into Survivor with this, guys. Um, "Congrats on the Survivor win." Thank you.
15:37
By the way, can I get my Sur- I didn't get my Survivor sounder from yesterday. Can I- I'm a survivor. Thank you very much.
15:42
Uh, according to Survivor Atlas, this from Tony's Markets Tips, but according to Survivor Atlas, this was before last night's game, Kel. We're talking about Circus Survivor now.
15:50
14 people had all 10 entries on the Texans, including Sean Perry, our poker guy from last year, the villain, uh, who made himself a villain anyway, and former Circuit champ Love My Baxter.
16:01
They had all 10 entries on the Texans. Two people had 9 of their 10 entries on the Texans. Only 163 contestants have five-plus entries. Only 96 contesters, contestants, pardon me, have six-plus entries.
16:13
30 contestants still have 10 entries. Now, that could have changed after last night. I don't have the update.
16:18
But let me give you where it stands, because when I updated Survivor yester- hey, Kelly, I mean, that is so 2000 late at this point.
16:24
[laughs] 'Cause the Eagles, 785 entries gone with that Nick Sirianni-induced loss yesterday. So here are the new... The updated Circus Survivor numbers are incredible. Again, 14,266 entries to begin with.
16:41
The first week, 39% got bounced. This week, of the remaining entries, 55.45% [laughs] of the entries got bounced. So it's 5,564 total in week one, 4,825 [laughs] in week two.
16:56
That means out of the 14,266, only 3,877 remain, meaning that 72.82% of all entries are gone after two weeks. 72.82%.
17:13
Last year at this point, after two weeks, it was 35.99% gone. Two years ago, however, it was a shade more by percentage. There was only 6,133 at that point, but 74.73% had been eliminated after two weeks two years ago.
17:29
So we are right on the cusp of the most carnage in Survivor history, uh, Circus Survivor history, but not quite. Not quite after last night. That's incredible, man.
17:39
But, but given that, given that there were 14,100- Yeah... 14,266 and there's only 3,877 left, that is unbelievable. Yeah. That, that is... I, I j- just cr- I mean, it's just crazy with Survivor where we're at.
17:53
One more twe- and one more tweet we have to give. Dave Ross. Since we talked about Matt Brown, we have to give Dave Ross equal time. Our own Dave Ross, "No, no, no, no, no, Gil. He must stay. Them's the rules."
18:02
He's, he's a- He's a cow- Sirianni being fired? He, yes. He's a, he's a Cowboys fan. [laughs] Dave is a Cowboys fan. So he's like, "No, no, no, he must stay. Them's the rules." He wants Sirianni to stay forever.
18:12
Assuming I, assuming I heard some of those b- uh, uh, post-game clips correctly, I actually, I think the worst thing he did was blame it on Kellen Moore. He, like, blamed the play call- Yeah... on Kellen Moore.
18:22
You're the head coach, man. Brutal. It's brutal I mean, those are the things of like, why, like why someone's on the hot seat like that as much as anything. Like, are you okay?
18:31
You're not gonna take accountability for anything you do? Wow. It's not good. Not too good.
18:37
I don't know how many games there were this week, man, of like the, like you were te- you and I were texting a little bit yesterday. [laughs] I was watching, watch, rewatch the fourth quarter of that Texans game.
18:45
You're just like- Oh, just a- You're like, "How does this happen?" [laughs] Like, you just like walk away from some of these games. Well- And like last night it's like, "Did I really just see a Falcons victory?
18:54
Like, how did that happen like that?" It, it's amazing too, because we're, I was going off on Sean Payton yesterday, and all it took was one more game to wipe Sean Payton off- Right, right. [laughs]...
19:03
off the, off the Dumbo of the week, right? And you point out that also that the Sunday night game, the Texans were up nine with the ball at the four yard line. At the four yard line. Oh my gosh.
19:12
I mean, it should've been an easy-peasy cover. Instead they were like fighting for even the win at the end, and survivor entries. Anyway. Yeah, I- That's the NFL, man...
19:20
I'm ready to move on to week three, that is for sure. But, uh- Holy cow... before we do that, can we look at a few awards? Yeah. 'Cause we mentioned this briefly yesterday.
19:27
Um, you know, uh, specifically about Offensive Rookie of the Year, like are we sure this is gonna be a quarterback? Um, but let's look at all these, Kelly, real quick.
19:35
Um- Yeah, we can run through MVP first and see where stuff's at... we'll get, we get, let's do MVP first.
19:38
Yeah, NFL MVP right now, which again, Cleve TA did such a great job giving us the parameters of that and who can and who cannot win. If we could throw that up on the screen, guys, that'd be great. Uh, for MVP.
19:51
This is, you know, one of these categories where it's not quite as interesting as the others, but Patrick Mahomes, you know, sort of de facto can we give him the MVP every single year that he even exists.
20:01
He's at plus 370. Josh Allen's four to one. C.J. Stroud, plus 550. I remember when we did our quarterback rankings in the off-season, I'm like, "He's conservatively a top five quarterback." He is.
20:11
He was number five on my list. I, I- Plus, plus 550... I still- By the way, Hurts is 12 to one. No. Burrow and everybody else 20 to one or longer. Do you like anything here? No, not at all. I don't either.
20:22
Not at all, because I think it is, uh [laughs]... No.
20:24
I mean, like it is week two, Gil, but man, it feels like one of those, the guys at the top, one of those three guys at the top, uh- It's, it's not a very exciting category right now. Right. Exactly.
20:33
Offensive Rookie of the Year.
20:35
By the way, the N- the, uh, MVP trends that, that Cleve was talking about, 11 straight and 16 of the last 17 MVPs have been quarterbacks, and those teams have averaged over 13 wins in their M- in their MVP season.
20:47
No MVP in the last seasons came from a team with less than 11 wins, eventually, and the average pre-season win total for the teams, uh, has been 10 wins, with a floor of eight and a half wins.
20:57
So if your pre, if your pre-flop season win total was below eight and a half to begin with, you ain't winning this. Um, thank you to Cleve for that, for the guardrails on that. Real quick now, Rookie of the Year.
21:06
We s- and we openly ask, can, can this, is this a year where it's not a quarterback? Marvin Harrison Jr. and Jayden Daniels now co-short shots at plus 250 each.
21:14
Jayden Daniels' done more with his legs than his arm at this point. Caleb is plus 350. He was the, uh, short shot all off-season.
21:21
Malik Nabers, the only one in single digits at plus 750, and your guy, Xavier Worthy, is at 13 to one. Mm-hmm. If you had to make a bet now, would there be one?
21:29
I mean, if I, if I had to make one now, it'd be, it'd, it'd be on Jayden Daniels still. Still.
21:34
I still think he's got the best shot at winning this, just 'cause the legs matter so much with the counting stats at the end of the year. Um, if I had to b- I would not make a bet right now. I ha- I wouldn't...
21:44
I mean, I have, I have Worthy and [laughs] Keon Coleman tickets- Yeah... which I guess, uh, are still live and I'm liking, but, uh, yeah, no, if I had to make a bet right now, it'd be Jayden. And I have Jayden.
21:54
Uh, I wanna go, uh, defensive or offensive here, guys. Let's go defensive, since it's up on the screen. Defensive Rookie of the Year. Your guy, FSU grad- Yeah... Jared Verse is four to one.
22:02
Okay, let's go Offensive Rookie of the Year. Let's do that. Um, wherever you guys wanna go. Yeah, I, I think Verse is r- I think Verse is rightfully, uh- Yeah... rightfully is there. Yeah.
22:10
Okay, so Jared Verse is the short shot for Defensive Rookie of the Year and Offensive Rookie of the Year. Excuse me, uh, for Defensive Rookie of the Year, it's Jared Verse. Um, would you make a bet?
22:18
Dallas Turner's five to one, Byron Murphy seven to one, Laiatu Latu eight to one. Everybody else double digits. No, I, I think you gotta...
22:25
I mean, look, I think it'd be one of those top two guys or you're waiting a little bit. Some of these guys still h- finding their footing and where exactly they're gonna be on these defenses. Okay.
22:33
Uh, we'll take a look at Coach of the Year, 'cause I think that's where it gets interesting. Yeah. We'll do that on the other side. Will Hill with all his bets, week three in the National Football League and beyond.
22:41
Maybe some baseball, maybe some college football. It's The Numbers Game right here at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:54
Back on The Numbers Game live at Circa. It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin on a, uh, Tuesday morning, still with a Nick Sirianni fallout. Let's, let's do a little change of pace.
23:04
We haven't had this gentleman on in a long time. Yeah. And that is our oversight, not his. Uh, I always introduce him by saying, and guys, I mean this, uh, he is the greatest sports talk radio host there ever was.
23:14
I will not be debated on this subject. Uh, when he used to host All Night with Todd Wright back in the, uh, the halcyon days of ESPN Radio. He now has a couple podcasts. One is the Todd Wright Fantasy Football Podcast.
23:25
The other is his Survivor podcast, which we'll get into in this segment as well. Uh, he won fantasy leagues, I know, uh, 2021, 2023. He also is a commissioner of fantasy leagues, which he rules with an iron fist.
23:37
Ladies and gentlemen, it's the great Todd Wright, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Todd? Thank you for the praise, Gil, and thank you for the iron fist reference. [laughs] I really appreciate that.
23:47
It's you and Khrushchev. You guys have a monopoly on it, the both of you. [laughs] Thank you. Yes. [laughs] You're very- Thank you... you're very, you're very welcome.
23:55
Uh, let's, let's start with, uh, ca- can I start with the, just sort of the, let's do the, the, the basic first, which is all of these injuries, I don't wanna be prisoner of the moment.
24:04
Has there ever been a year with more injuries to big-time players this early? And then specifically, what do you do about Deebo and CMC in San Francisco? What do you do about A.J. Brown in Philadelphia?
24:18
What do you do about the Nacua cup injuries in Los Angeles?
24:23
There probably has been a bigger year, but we're living in the moment We wanna make it feel worse than it actually is, and we actually have to do something about it.
24:33
So like you brought up how Survivor, and I know we're gonna talk about that, there was, uh, uh, two years ago it was as bad or worse based on some of the data.
24:44
So my first reaction is, as I talked to you guys in the last 24 hours, this was why your draft had so many rounds.
24:53
Your replacement for, say, a Cooper Kupp, should be someone you already had on your team that you drafted two, three, four weeks ago and didn't cut for some reactive reason, uh, after week one.
25:08
I'll give you just one example, 'cause I was very invested in Kupp this year. Loved the results week one.
25:15
Now I'm scrambling, but I just slide Jamison Williams into his spot for week three, because I drafted Jamison Williams in a mid to late round to take that risk.
25:28
Um, keep this in mind, Gil and Kelly, on fantasy football, like we saw last night, loved all the Sirianni talk, by the way, so far today.
25:36
[laughs] We saw last night, the Eagles don't have presumably a next man up for A.J. Brown, right? For those that rushed to pick up Dotson, what'd you get?
25:46
The great thing about fantasy football is the Eagles had one group of players to pick from last night. As a fantasy owner, you have 32 to pick from to replace A.J. Brown.
25:59
So you have a bigger group to try to find that player if you didn't already draft him. Yeah.
26:05
Kelly put together a nice little, uh, list of players, quarterback, wide receiver, running back, and tight end for those watching. Uh, all these players perhaps available. Yes. Perhaps. Perhaps. Yeah.
26:15
[laughs] I was, I was, I was amused by that, Todd, when, when some of these fantasy services are, like, "Available in 75%- [laughs]... of leagues." It's like, what?
26:23
What league would have these guys available in that, uh, in that high of a percentage? Let me, let me ask you some, uh, some macro stuff. One is, um, tight ends.
26:33
Tight ends with, with just complete lack of production in the first couple weeks of fantasy football. What do you, what do you do about that? Targets are way down.
26:41
It's kind of, kind of inexplicable, but you had a tight end philosophy I remember a couple years ago already. Well, this is my iron fist- Yeah... which many people have disagreed with.
26:52
I eliminated the mandatory tight end in all my leagues 10 years ago because I didn't feel there were enough worthy people on a week-to-week basis to play that position to justify it.
27:05
And honestly, Gil, and I'm sure you and Kelly feel this way, there are certain questions you get from great listeners on a regular basis, and you just roll your eyes, not because of the listeners, but because of the question.
27:17
So the questions that I have eliminated over the last 10 years once we get to by weeks is, "Hey, what do I do at the tight end position?"
27:26
And my first response is, "Well, if you had eliminated the mandatory tight end, we wouldn't be wasting our time on this."
27:32
Because annually, there's only a handful of tight ends that put up the equivalent of wide receiver one, wide receiver two, wide receiver three numbers, and tight ends, including Travis Kelce, off to a very slow start this year.
27:44
And even an Isaiah Likely, who many jumped on on week two waivers trying to get the bump off week one, didn't see it in week two.
27:54
If you had to break down by percentage fantasy football success, draft, um, waiver wire, trades, give me the pie chart of that. Uh, w- okay, so my, my fantasy title last year,
28:10
uh, I think I won it with how I drafted in the first six rounds. Like, Aiyuk was a sixth-round pick.
28:16
McCaffrey at number one overall when most didn't want the, the spot or took Justin Jefferson, and there were good picks in between. But I picked up Kyren Williams twice on waivers 'cause he got...
28:28
I, I let him go and then got him again after a, a week in advance from him coming back being hurt. Picked up Stafford and Love for the post-season run when I needed a quarterback after mine went down in Joe Burrow.
28:41
So I'll say it's, it's 60% of your draft, mostly at the top of the board.
28:47
It's 20 to 30% in how you work waivers, in finding players to help you on either an every so often week or finding a consistent starter on waivers like many found years ago when Alvin Kamara was a rookie, or last year with Kyren Williams when we knew he was going to get that workload.
29:06
And honestly, Gil, 10 to 20% is just luck. That's it. Because that factors in, obviously, to picking against the line, picking totals, picking futures. You have to factor that in here in fantasy as well. All right.
29:21
I'll, I'll ask you this last fantasy question on the way out, 'cause I wanna talk Survivor, but I've asked you this before, but [laughs] put, I want a refresher.
29:27
If someone sends you an offensive trade offer in fantasy, do you, A, ignore it?
29:34
[laughs] A, ignore it, B, uh, berate him publicly in the chat room of, of said fantasy league, or, three, send him back an equally offensive trade offer?
29:47
It's three, and you know with the value of nine seasons of my fantasy football podcast, which amazingly, Gil, I've done as many seasons of this fantasy podcast as ABC ordered for The Love Boat- [laughs]...
30:00
and NBC ordered of Seinfeld. [laughs] So I feel, I feel- Just as good as Seinfeld... very validated. Yeah. Uh, I feel very validated that I've gotten as many seasons as Captain Stubing and Kramer.
30:11
[laughs] So I do three, and then I use the bad trade as material on the podcast to shame the person that proposed the bad trade to one of my listeners. I like it.
30:24
By the way, I had no idea The Love Boat was only on for nine seasons. It feels like it was on for 15. [laughs] Yeah. I, I was so that guy, by the way. Would always make the bad trade.
30:32
It was all the appearances of Charo that threw you off, Gil. [laughs] That's what it was. Charo and Dennis Cole. They showed up every three weeks- Yeah... for some reason. All right. Uh, Survivor.
30:41
I know you have some, you obviously have the Fantasy Football Podcast. You also have the Survivor Podcast, um, available where all podcasts are distributed. You have thoughts about week three. Who are you considering?
30:54
I even asked you Yes I said, this is real time stuff for your listeners.
30:59
I said to you after I recorded the podcast yesterday, and I use a lot of what you and Kelly talk about on A Numbers Game on the podcast, and I said, "Gil, top five survivor plays early look this week."
31:11
And I ran down Jets, Bucs, Bills, anti-Miami play, anti-Carolina play. And you said, "Oh, I think the Bengals are going to be top three." So back at you. I mean, Gil, where's the, where's the numbers?
31:25
I have them right here. 4,895 people in the circuit pool are saying to you, "Are you crazy thinking the Bengals are going to win- [laughs]... even if it's against Washington?
31:36
Do you really feel that they will be that high of a play after what they've done the first two weeks, and just how toxic things look with, with Ja'Marr Chase, with Tee Higgins, the, the bad penalty on the fourth and 16?
31:49
We know the Bengals are better than, than a zero and two team, but do you really want to put your investment in them this week? I don't have them as a top five play, but- Really?... do you think they're a top three?
32:00
I think they're a top three. I said earlier, I th- I've got, now that, now that the Pan- Panthers have made the shift at quarterback- Right...
32:07
I feel like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who would have played obviously the Panthers twice, once at home later, I think they come back into play this week. I think the Browns- Yeah...
32:16
are a play, and I do think the B- [laughs] the Bengals. The part of that calculus- I know what Todd's talking about, though. Yeah.
32:22
But, but the part of the calculus that you left out is that I am a self-hating Washington- [laughs]... Commodes fan. Yeah, you are. So obvious- so obviously I think the Bengals are a top three pick, yeah.
32:31
Yeah, Kelly seems to be with me that, uh, there's, it's like in fantasy where from a previous year, if you have a player that let you down, there's scar tissue that lingers into future years, and when we see what the Bengals did in week one, even just talking survivor two weeks later, we're unwilling to go back to that.
32:51
So that's my emotion after the Bengals knocked me out, as it's your emotion against Washington. Although I am a big believer in Jayden Daniels, especially from a fantasy standpoint, and he has treated me well.
33:04
One more thing on Andy Dalton going in, back to fantasy, I see Adam Thielen available in 75% of Yahoo leagues, and with Andy Dalton out there, that's some value on the waiver wire, just as Carolina suddenly might not be an anti-play in survivor.
33:21
I like it. Good call. Yeah. When, when, when last seen, Adam Thielen was wide open and not getting a pass from Bryce Young, that's for sure. Com- combined age of those two, roughly 87 years old. [laughs] That's right.
33:31
Todd, thank you so much. Appreciate it. Love you guys. Thank you for having me on. The great Todd Wright. Love you back, man. Uh, right here on A Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:40
Paul Spohrer on baseball next. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:54
Don't forget, after A Numbers Game, top of the hour, Money Moves with Stormy Bonnefontone. Stormy's guest today, once again, the great Jeff Schwartz. How about that?
34:04
Stormy and Jeff on Money Moves for a couple hours, then Prop Points with John Hanson, followed by Make It Rain with Adam Shine from 3:00 to 4:00 PM Eastern. That's, uh, VSiN's schedule.
34:15
Again, Stormy and Jeff right after Kelly and I have, uh, decided to evacuate the studio. Decided. [laughs] It is. It's a, it's a decision. It's a decision. Yeah. It is quite the, uh, uh... This is like, uh, pit...
34:29
What is it? Pit lane, White? Is that what we call it? Oh, pit r- pit, the, uh... Oh, I see what you're saying. The pit crew, right? Yeah, yeah. Yeah, yeah.
34:35
It is like, uh, it's like changing tires in here real quick, getting us out and getting her in and settled and everything. Yeah. Well, at least it looks- We're not used to it.
34:42
That w- we, we had, for as much as we, we might have complained about past setups, uh, we had all the time in the world to get in and out of the D, that's for sure. [laughs] Yeah, we sure did. That we did.
34:51
Um, most of the, uh, the Twitter feedback is all, you know, is on Survivor.
34:54
It's, it's, the most amazing thing is we can talk about, you know, Sirianni, we can talk about a, an, any number of subjects, but daily, if you did the pie chart of, of the percentage of
35:06
Survivor-focused tweets, it's gotta be about 40% every day, no matter what- Mm-hmm... we're talking about. And, and it's different opinions, right? Uh, uh, as far as the Bengals, Rich PSM says, "Bengals survivor.
35:18
Remember they crushed the Rams on Monday night without a win last year. They looked much better versus Kansas City. Gotta be desperate. By the way, I too enjoyed Mr. Wright.
35:25
Maybe a long, late drive home after failed dates back in the day for all night [laughs] with Todd Wright."
35:30
[laughs] So he, he, um, Rich PSM believes that Cincinnati is a viable pick, whereas Chris Hartman says, "Gil, 7 to 8% of all Survivor knockouts have come at the hands of the AFC North.
35:39
Difficult to jump on Cleveland or Cincy this week." So both sides of that as well, and everybody's got, uh, got their takes on it.
35:46
So week three for those who are still alive, in not only Circuit Survivor, but your survivor pool, good luck to you here heading into what is never easy in the National Football League.
35:56
All you have to do is hit a 20-team Moneyline parlay in Circa. That's all you have to do- It's not that hard... to win, to get to the f- promised land. It's not e- come on, 20. 20 teamers.
36:06
That, that one guy, uh, the one guy at Hard Rock, uh, hit, uh, hit all 16, uh, in week one. That's easy. Oh. Yeah. Sure. It's like 25 bucks into whatever, [laughs] hundreds of thousands. Shoulda bet more.
36:16
Yeah, shoulda bet more. There you go, Will. Um, okay, before we get to the segment that everybody loves, which is Kelly Bidlin's College Football Guessing Line segment for the week, um,
36:28
I just wanna, I m- I mentioned this earlier, so I wanna pay off the tease. I bet a Heisman Trophy player. I, I bet a, I bet a, I bet a guy to win the Heisman Trophy at 1,000 to 1 yesterday here at Circa.
36:39
Any guesses as to who that was? [laughs] Yeah, yeah. Yeah, I'm asking you. [laughs] Yeah, yeah, no. Uh, let me just tell you, uh, uh, it was- Not Jackson Dart. It was 1,000 to 1 when I bet- Not Cam Ward. It is... Okay.
36:51
[laughs] I moved it, I apparently moved it from 1,000 to 1 to 80 to 1. Wow, bro. Let me just tell you how this went down. I tried to put a, uh, certain amount of money on it, and they made me wait for a good-
37:06
Seven to 10 minutes Ooh, a real long wait for you It was an eternity. It was at least five minutes. Uh- You did this here? Here, right after the show. Af- after, actually after I talked to you, I went to my car.
37:16
I'm like, "Hold on." You doubled back? I was double back, that's right. Wow. So they- That's how much he likes sports...
37:21
they didn't allow me- He was all the way to the car By the way, they're probably saving me money, right? It's 1,000 to one. It's, I'm probably not gonna win. Anyway, the player is Eli Holstein, Pitt Panthers.
37:31
Thousand to one I thought was a number that I had to d- to, I had to take a, a shot at. Uh, Eli Holstein, who by the- Quarterback? Who, by the way, yes, he's a quarterback, Kelly. [laughs] He play, he was at Alabama.
37:43
He transferred. Um- Oh, okay... and by the way, has not declared whether he's in the Tribe or not. I'm just assuming. Um, which is not- [laughs] Have a reason for the bet...
37:53
which is not really why I made the bet, I should point out. That's not why I made the bet. But, uh, Eli Holstein, uh, he's thrown for 300 yards in each of the Panthers' first three games.
38:02
He has engineered two straight comebacks, once again, the, one, uh, a couple weeks ago against the Bearcats of Cincinnati, and then this past week against a down two scores late against West Virginia. How did he do this?
38:14
But Eli Holstein brings the, uh, Panthers back to victory, 38-34 over West Virginia in, uh, in that rivalry. So the thinking here is obviously 300 a game, that's great, the comeback spectacular.
38:27
Um, but Pitt's schedule is not the worst in the world. Like, it's kinda manageable, and if Pitt can, uh, get themselves into an ACC title game, it's not the most outlandish thing in the world.
38:39
Anyway, that's the bet, 1,000 to one on Eli Holstein. Would I bet it at 80 to one? Uh, probably not. You know what's the saddest part is I actually- Yeah...
38:47
I actually watched a very, very good chunk of that West Virginia/Pitt game. Oh, it was fantastic. And I was not kidding when I just asked you about quarterback.
38:55
I assumed he was, but yeah, I'd, uh, I'd ne- You, wait- Like I watched that game- So you watched the game... and didn't, didn't pick up on the fact, yes, that that, that was the kid's name. I, I called it before.
39:03
I'm like, "Eli Holstein about to win this game," and he did. Uh, so that was the bet in college football.
39:08
And now, ladies and gentlemen, because I do an NFL guessing lines that Kelly has to endure for two hours, ladies and gentlemen, Kelly Bidlin and college football guessing lines. [upbeat music] Oh, yeah.
39:20
I was just trying to figure out how week one went. Yeah, I can't really track that information right now. Should've done that earlier. Week two, though, here we go. Week two of college football guessing lines.
39:28
Can I give a background on this once again for those who are just tuning in for the first time? Yeah.
39:31
This, uh, this segment is born out of the fact that, uh, when we were at the South Point, uh, Kelly was rushing in between segments to get a segment together, and quickly he was like, "Hey, uh, Gil, what was the, what was the line in that one college football game?"
39:41
And I go, "14." And there was this awkward, pregnant pause. Pu- punching something into a graphic, I think, yeah... awkward, pregnant pause, and then Kelly says to me, "Plus or minus?"
39:49
And at that point I realized that while Kelly loves his NBA, loves his golf, bets 'em great, loves his football, eh, college football not so much. I love college football.
39:59
I just, uh, God bless everybody out there that tries to handicap it every single year with all these players moving all over the place. All right, you ready? Like your guy. By the way- Eli... Eli Holstein.
40:08
[laughs] Do, do you know how you did l- in the first week? No? You were just saying numbers? No, I was, I was trying to track it down real quick. Yeah, yeah.
40:13
We gotta k- we gotta keep his, well, I don't know we're- Yeah, I was gonna... I don't know we're keeping, 'cause you're not making, you're just guessing a line.
40:18
Well, it's always kind of more like, uh, you know, who was further off, Kelly or the book. All right. Right? You ready? So it's that, yeah. NC State at Clemson, speaking of the ACC. Okay, big ACC game here I think.
40:30
Uh, Clemson was, uh, you know, highly touted preseason. So was NC State a little bit. Clemson averaging over 34 points a game. You got NC State 0 and 3, uh, ATS so far. 3 and 16 straight up going back to last 19.
40:45
You got McColl is doubtful. I, I b- I believe that's true.
40:48
That's what I read yesterday at least, that Grayson McColl is doubtful, which sounds massive, 'cause he was actually a name that I know that plays quarterback in college football. Mm-hmm.
40:56
Uh, I'm gonna go Clemson laying 27 here. It's gotta be something big. I just don't know if I'm big enough or too big here. 27 from Kelly Bidlin on Clemson, and the answer is- Actual retail price...
41:10
[laughs] 20 and a half. [laughs] I'm like 27? Easy, buddy. 20 and a half, uh, is the price. So you, you, sir, see tremendous value on the Wolfpack- Yeah... of NC State is what you're saying. Yeah, absolutely. Also,
41:24
that graphic disagrees with what I just said about NC State, but okay. Does it? Oh, okay. Yeah. Well, maybe it- Wait, does that say 0 and 3 ATS? It, it- We got cameras everywhere... it does. It does.
41:31
Okay, no, that's what I said then. That's what I said. Yeah, everybody- I thought I said one and three...
41:34
everybody should know the biggest, the biggest cultural difference for us between the D and, and Circuit you would think is the noise that's around us now in an antiseptic studio.
41:43
We're just adjusting to the studio [laughs] It's just that everything is an obstructed view in here. It, we all bought obstructed view seats. Uh, okay, number two.
41:51
You- I don't, I don't know how these guys do it at night... y- you didn't do so good on that one. Yeah, okay. Number two. Oh, by the way, the, we had, we have the, uh, the TVs for everything else up here.
41:58
Yeah, speaking of Florida State. Okay.
42:00
We often at the D, 'cause I would look past you and the screens would be there, and ESPN would, you know, they'd, they'd fill their talk shows with the most ridiculous topic bars, right?
42:09
And topics that they would discuss for entire segments. Yeah, yeah, yeah. This- We would often chuckle about it, not mention them on air often, but... this morning's might have taken the cake.
42:15
[laughs] Which is can 0 and 3 Florida State still make the playoff? [laughs] And they spent 15 minutes on that. Come on, man. Speaking of, speaking of FSU- Oh, man... speaking of FSU, Kelly, an FSU grad allegedly.
42:28
Oh, it's brutal... allegedly. Cal at Florida State, 3 and 0 against 0 and 3. Hey, I graduated. My mother has that diploma in a safe somewhere.
42:38
It is not coming out of that safe, uh, because yeah, she, she, she likes, uh, she likes to hold onto that thing. Took five years, okay? It's not like I, I flew through there. Florida State- [laughs]...
42:47
15.3 points per game. Not a doctor also. Yeah. Uh, 0 and 3 ATS. Um, I wanted to look this one up. You know the ATS plus/minus, right? How much- Oh, yes... above or above and below? Yes. I like that.
42:58
They are minus 19.8, so they are falling below the spread, [laughs] below the, uh, coverage by almost 20 points per game. That is impressive. Cal rolling, 131 to 10, uh, against San Diego State.
43:11
21-14 over Auburn, SEC win. I'm gonna take that as pretty impressive. Florida State's looked like absolute garbage. I'm assuming they were big favorites preseason in this game. It's gotta be Cal favorite.
43:22
Now I'm going Cal laying three in this matchup at Florida State at the Doak. Cal w- walking in laying three points. That's a Doak. Dr. Bob's Cal Bears against Kelly Bidlin's FSU Seminoles. The actual, uh, spread is,
43:36
is Florida State minus two. Sorry. Still favored. Wrong, wrong team favored is what you're saying. Can't, can't bet on that team, man. Uh- You cannot bet on that team, right?
43:44
Speaking of wrong team favored, you see how I guessed the Saints were two and a half point favorite yesterday and the Eagles- Yeah... were favorites, and now it's the Saints minus two and a half. Yep.
43:50
It's like I can guess. To your right, uh, Jake Glenn- It's like I can guess well... moved to your exact point. Yep. Uh, and the last one here, Kelly, uh, so far not so good by the way, uh, last one UCLA at LSU.
44:00
Okay, I got absolutely no idea here. I think what really threw me off was we were just talking about Wes Reynolds going over to this game, UCLA stomping Indiana last week.
44:08
So, uh, I'm going with LSU laying 17 as I'm running out of time. I've got more written down, but LSU laying 17. Actual retail price 24 and a half. Yeah. You were, uh, you weren't great there. Not, not so great there.
44:20
Really? Yeah. I feel like that's average for me. High expectations. Not so great. All right. By the way, Indiana crushed UCLA, not the way you said it. You said UCLA crushed them. Sorry, UCLA got stomped by Indiana.
44:30
[laughs] We've done all we can do. [laughs] Stormy is next
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