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Sep 19, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | September 19, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | September 19, 2025
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44:42
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story. They always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Friday morning tune.
0:11
It's a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com. Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course SiriusXM Channel 158. It's a football Friday. Yeah. Football. And football.
0:24
Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin alongside. Yes, and international football. Mm-hmm. That's right. Si. [laughs] That's right.
0:31
[laughs] Paul Carr will join us talk Premier League, but besides that we'll do j- we'll do the domestic variety of football. Uh, college and pro with Chris Felica, college with Dr. Bob.
0:41
I don't know, maybe he has a pro pick. I have no idea. And then anything that's on the mind, football and beyond with Steve Fezzik for Fezzik Fridays inside Football Fridays. See how we do that? He does a lot.
0:51
Steve, thanks for all the production work you do for your own segments. Yeah. We could give him three hours. He's got, he's got- We could just take Fridays off... he's got an idea where he wants to go.
0:59
Usually we just sort of wing it. He has an idea. That's right. Yeah, he has an idea where he wants to go. Uh, and then Kelly and I will, uh, give our thoughts, our, uh- Mm...
1:06
knee-jerk responses both from a, or I should say in all kinds of ways, from an ATS, from a survivor standpoint, any which way on all these NFL games. Not the Wednesday whip-around, but a Friday look.
1:18
There's nothing better than a Friday morning talking football. Oh, it's so good. It's so good. It's the perfect way to, like, go into the weekend. Gil, it's, it's...
1:26
I started narrowing down Millions stuff yesterday, too. I already, I submitted my Millions. Oh, did you play last night? I, I did not, but after the game, I'm like, "You know what? Let me just look at these."
1:38
And so without the Steve Fezzik perfect information on a Saturday afternoon, I just, I submitted. How dare you? Yeah. I better text him right now to bring that up as a talking point. Oh, he'll be very upset.
1:47
[laughs] He'll be very upset with me. No, it's, uh... Okay, so it was easier for me than I thought it was gonna be, I guess which I, which I'm reading from you as well, but, like, I don't like any of them.
1:56
It was one of those, like, well, I guess this one. Well, I guess this one. Sure, this one. Well, I mean, th- three of mine, [clears throat] pardon me, three of mine are...
2:04
Well, two of, two of mine are guessing lines related, right? Yeah. 'Cause I'm still going ahead and my... So I got the, I got the best of the number on two of the three on Monday of the three games I, I isolated.
2:14
So two of those are involved. Um- I laid it with the Falcons too, but me and you are betting three on the Falcons and laying five-and-a-half in the contest. That's exactly right. So, and, and that's one of my Mega Pod.
2:25
Uh, I had the over in the game last night, which we'll get to here momentarily, and, and I'm taking the worst. Got the best of it on the bet, right? Minus three on a game that's minus five-and-a-half.
2:35
What is now the worst of it in contest and Mega Pod, but still feel confident about the Falcons. So that's the thing. You have to constantly shift your mind- It's tough. Yeah...
2:42
and then there's survivor on top of that, so it's a whole thing. That's why we love it so. Yep. We love it so. You know who we don't love so? The Cleveland Guardians. Go away. Oh, my gosh. Can't stand you people.
2:51
I almost... I forgot to text you yesterday. Oh. Skubal, how many times do I gotta see? Gil. How many times do I gotta see? He's just gotta pitch the whole game. What are we doing? Yeah.
3:00
But even when he- You know, I, I have an un-... it was one to one, right? I have an alt season under on the, on the Guardians too, which, you know, again, [laughs] 87-and-a-half.
3:07
I didn't think I'd even have to worry about that one. Now I have to, like, even pay attention to that. Anyway, Guardians, by the way, best record in September, 13 and 4. To the game last night, National Football League.
3:16
Sorry, that came into my mind. Yeah. Um- Yeah, I'm just watching... Buffalo beats Miami 31-21. They win but don't cover in a game that was, uh, fairly entertaining. 14 to 7 Buffalo.
3:30
So Miami actually scored first on their first drive, and then Buffalo scored on both of their first two drives, got to the house on both of those as well. Um, it was a...
3:41
And, and you know, at this point, by the way, the f- the 14, the second Buffalo touchdown was a Josh Allen flip of the football, um, to Jackson Hawes.
3:51
And then after a three-and-out for Miami, Allen is feeling so good about himself, he's flipping the ball all over the place.
3:57
He tried another pass like that on, on the subsequent drive, and [laughs] it's just like- I, I texted you right then too. I was like, I was like, "I don't know about this whole, like, Josh Allen running tonight.
4:05
I'm betting, I'm betting live unders- Yeah... on the rushing," and I got burned on one run in the second half. Burned. Burned on one run.
4:10
So it's 14 to 7 for those who missed it, and then Matt Prater lines up, 'cause after a Miami three-and-out, so, so, you know,
4:16
Dolphins do hold, and Matt Prater's about to put the r- the Bills up 10 points, and he proceeds to have the worst field goal attempt of his career. I f- I thought this had to have been blocked, right?
4:27
It wasn't just wide left. It was [laughs] it was like- [laughs] Yeah, no... halfway between the goalpost and the stands. I don't know what that was. But- Gil texted that.
4:36
I responded with, "It, it might be the worst field goal attempt ever by any kicker". [laughs] So it's raid 14 to 7. We're in the second quarter.
4:42
And, you know, buoyed by that miss, Miami then goes 16 plays, 71 yards, which included, Kelly, five third down conversions, three of which were to Tyreek for 19 on third and 12, for 13 on third and 10, for seven on third and three.
5:00
Two went to Jaden, uh, Jaylen Waddle from three out. 14-14, eight seconds left in the half, and Miami's gotta be feeling good about themselves. By the way, then the, uh...
5:09
I don't know if you saw this, 'cause I was, I was already turning to the WNBA game at that point. Mm-hmm. But Josh Allen had a pretty, uh, shaky kneel-down. Did you see that? He, he s- the ball snapped.
5:18
He kind of bobbled it, but his second knee touched the ground, not his first one, and then he flipped the ball to the ref. So, like, Miami was a little, was a little weirded out by that.
5:28
Oh, it was- But it, but it was in fact a kneel down. Okay. You, you didn't like it? You didn't think it was? No, I don't know that I ever saw anything that for sure I, I felt like it was... A, a knee got down.
5:37
Second knee was down. But you're telling me second knee. Second knee. I never, I never looked at an angle where I saw a second knee.
5:41
So we're tied at 14, and again, like, you know, I had, I had Buffalo on two of my survivor entries. At no point was I feeling weirded out by this, though, at all. Buffalo comes out first, second half,
5:52
d- matriculate down the field, cook in from two. 21-14 Buffalo early third quarter. Then after, you know, a Miami three-and-out, Buffalo three-and-out, again, another Miami three-and-out-
6:01
Buffalo has to punt again, so the Miami defense is, like, showing up now. Miami, fourth and four at the Buffalo 36. Tua to Waddle for 15, then A-Chan for 14. Two plays later, Tua to Tyreek from five out.
6:12
It's 21-21, Kelly, with 12:18 left in the game. A- and for the first time, kinda like you were saying earlier, for, for the first time in the game, I'm like, "Oh, this is, hmm, this might be tight here down the stretch."
6:22
Honestly, I still wasn't there. Okay. [laughs] Here's, here's where I did get there. And then Miami forces a Buffalo punt again, and for these next 25 seconds I was like, "Oh, boy. This could be something."
6:35
But guess what? It was only 25 seconds, 'cause Zach, Zach Seiler roughs punter Cameron Johnston. I mean, this is one of the two biggest plays of the game, 'cause you're about to get the ball back- Oh...
6:47
with a chance to go ahead, and instead you rough, not running into, by the way, you rough the punter, so it's an automatic first down. Five plays later, Allen to Shakir from 15 out.
6:57
28-21 Buffalo little more than halfway through the quarter. So Miami starts at their own 37. They matriculate two more third-down conversions to Waddle this time along the way.
7:06
It's first and 10 at the Buffalo 21 with 3:06 left, and you're down seven.
7:13
At this point you're thinking, "Well, if they s- it probably not gonna work out time-wise, but if they were able to milk it, would they go for two for the win at the end?"
7:22
Well, then, how many people in the country go, "There he is"? Yeah. There's Tua.
7:27
Tua stares down Jalen Waddle, who sits on the, on the pattern, which is exactly what the pattern was supposed to be, but Tua's just staring at him.
7:35
And, uh, Terrell Bernard just comes in and picks it and returns it 23 yards. I thought Bernard was a little wor- for those of us who had the over, thought Bernard kinda nonchalantly went out of bounds.
7:45
Turn it up field, baby. Nope, just kinda went out of bounds. Yeah, that's a good... I didn't really think about that moment, but yeah. Yeah. I was like, "What are you doing?" So anyway, so at this point it's 28-21.
7:52
Buffalo's in control, obviously, but for those of us who had the over at 50 and a half, it came down to the final sequence. Buffalo had a first and 10 at the Miami 35 at the two-minute warning.
8:03
So I needed three things to happen for the over. I needed Miami to get three stops. They only had one timeout at this point. I needed Buffalo to d- to then, three stops obviously, without them getting the first down.
8:15
I needed them to, Buffalo to decide to kick the field goal, and then I needed Prater to make the field goal. Yep. Bing, bang, bong, winner. M- me and you both got so lucky on our bets yesterday.
8:26
Well, were we lucky though? 'Cause that looked like it was over for a long time in that game. Yeah, until the third quarter hit and it was like, put the brakes on. Right, but I don't consider that a lucky win. Okay.
8:35
All right. Yeah. I mean, there's, believe me, there's far- There's a lot... far more fortunate wins. Okay, lucky, lucky finish to the [laughs] For sure. That's what I meant.
8:41
For sure a fortunate finish that, finish that it all went our way, but- I mean, I, I had the first half over.
8:45
It was just as ridiculous, 'cause that Prater missed field goal, and I was like, "Oh, great, I'm gonna need a touchdown by the Dolphins," you know, "before the end of the half to get it over," and of course they score with seconds on the clock.
8:55
[laughs] Just to give you an idea of the thin line between wins and losses, right? So we get the thin line of a win there on the over. Um, and by the way, again, Miami does cover for Miami backers.
9:07
My guess on guessing lines was at this point it should've been Buffalo minus 10. There's your margin. Um, but the thin line between winning bets and losing bets, our buddy Will Hill.
9:17
Our buddy Will Hill had two prop bets. [snorts] Um, he had Malik Washington over 25 and a half receiving yards. Okay. And he had Tua Tagovailoa over 34 and a half pass attempts. He had both of these.
9:32
The final play of the game, Tua appears to pass the ball to Malik Washington to get 14 yards. Tua's sitting on 34 pass attempts. Remember, it's 34 and a half. Malik is sitting on just below 25 and a half.
9:48
It's a, it looks to be a 14-yard pass play, and the result of that ought to be that Will hits both of those props on the final play of the game. It was a play that had no consequence to the final score. Right.
10:00
But it was one of those... Remember the, uh, the Frank Wycheck Minne- uh, Miracle City... Was it the Miracle, the Music City Miracle play? Yeah, yeah. And remember how it was sort of an optical illusion?
10:12
Everybody in real time thought, well, this is before your time maybe, but everybody in real time thought- No, no... it was a forward pass- Yeah... but it in fact was a lateral across the field- Right... to Kevin Dyson.
10:21
This was kind of like that in a final play from scrimmage form, where Tua's hand actually was just inside the 38 yard line of Buffalo when he threw it, and Malik Washington actually caught it, like, at the 38 yard line.
10:37
So it was correctly ruled a lateral. And so no Tua- Brutal. That is brutal... final attempt. No Malik Washington.
10:45
Here's, by the way, here's, uh, Mike Renner, our old buddy from, uh, PFF, who's now married by the former, uh, Bachelorette contender. Mike Renner, right? Mm-hmm.
10:52
Um, the tragic thing for the Dolphins going forward is that Tua's cap number is higher than Josh Allen's in 2025, 2026, 2027, and 2028.
11:00
And this brings up what I'd been talking about, which is I think Mike McDaniel probably saved his job by the competitive nature of that game last night, maybe.
11:08
But I keep going to the Dolphins are gonna have to consider, right? If the losses pile up and this season is lost, they are going to have to consider what Denver did with Russell Wilson.
11:19
Remember when Sean Payton was just like, "This isn't my guy," and Denver took the largest two-year cap hit for any player ever when they decided to move on from Russell Wilson.
11:29
The Dolphins might have to do this with Tua, might have to do it with Tua. In a, uh, in a game that was filled with dinks last night- Mm-hmm...
11:35
which we'll get to on the other side as well, um, let's go around the league in addition to that.
11:41
Game by game, our thoughts, ATS, straight up, it's a Football Friday, week three in the NFL, on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:48
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12:13
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12:19
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12:28
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12:41
Bob, Paul Carr about to join us for, uh, for a little, uh, Premier League. Yep. Uh, last two games for the weekend before we get to Paulie. Uh, Chiefs at Giants Sunday night.
12:50
Chiefs a six-point favorite now, uh, at the New York Giants. Totals at 45. The proverbial must-win situation for the Kansas City/Omaha Chiefs, who do not want to fall to 0-3.
13:01
'Cause you fall to 0-3, you do not make the playoffs. Kinda how it works. Not touching. I got absolutely nothing. L- Not survivor, not nothing. Yeah, lean to the under. If I, if I made you, I like...
13:14
I've had fun play, playing this game this week- Yeah... 'cause this, this game is brutally tough, I think. If I made you play a side, who'd you play? Giants +6. Me too. Me too. Monday Night, Lions at Ravens.
13:24
Ravens are four-and-a-half point favorites. This too was a millions play for me on the Ravines. Yeah, me too. Yeah, I, I, that's a bet for me, will be a millions play for me as well.
13:33
Um, Ravens, uh, I, I'm interested to see this game. I, I think the Lions are still gonna be one of the better teams in the NFC, but man, Ra- Ra- Ravens, th- that squad is so solid put together right now. Yeah.
13:45
Um- Its number's come down, though.
13:47
Number's come down So in addition to the, uh, guessing Lions plays that I made, I added the Rams, I added the Chargers minus two and a half, Rams was three and a half, Ravens minus four and a half as bets as well for all.
13:57
Uh, let's talk some Premier League, but before we do, he is a Miami Dolphins fan, so I'd be remiss if I didn't ask him about his team, which of course fell to 0-3 last night at Buffalo.
14:06
It's Paul Carr from True Media Networks. You can follow him on Twitter at, get this clever handle, Paul Carr. C-A-R-R. How you doing, Paul? Yeah, I came up with that one myself, Gil. Yeah. Well done. Well done.
14:17
Yeah, thank you. Thank you. I'm surprised you were the only one, actually. Um, what about- Uh- What about the Dolphins? I wasn't originally, actually.
14:22
Somebody else had it and he's quit Twitter, and I got it from him, and- Oh, nice... it was a thing. That, mine was the same way.
14:27
The Spanky story is still the best with that one, where he's like, "Uh, what's it worth it to you?" Oh, yeah. [laughs] He just let the guys talk first, and he's like, "All right, I'll do it."
14:34
Mine was like Paul's, though. Yeah. Like, I don't know how in tw- you know, two, 2010 it w- Kelly Bidlin was taken, but somehow, like, Matt Brown figured out in 2018 it was back alive- Yeah... so he got it. Yeah.
14:44
Uh, Paul, your Dolphins, 0-3. [laughs] Though they c- but though they comported themselves kinda, kinda nicely last night. They did. How do you feel about it? Yeah. Uh, so okay.
14:53
So the optimistic fan side of me says, "Hey, they looked like a real team last night. That's progress." And their upcoming schedule, like, the next couple games, Jets and Panthers, uh, and then Chargers, Browns, Falcons.
15:06
It's like, that's not, you know, four of those games are gonna be roughly toss-ups. Gotta- So- Gotta win a couple of those, right? That's the problem. Yeah. They almost have to go four and one.
15:15
There's almost, there's pretty much no margin for error, 'cause their next three after that are Baltimore, Buffalo, Washington. Whoops. Uh, before it gets a little easier.
15:22
So yeah, there's, there's just zero margin for error the rest of the way, which is not the thing you want to be saying after three games. Yeah.
15:29
Home Jets at Panthers, and then two weeks later at Browns, but everything else is Chargers at Falcons, Ravens, Bills. Commanders is in Spain. Right. And then a bye week, week 12, so yeah. Right. Yikes.
15:42
And the, and the end isn't terrible, but again, you- By then, yeah. Right. You lost a home game to New England, which is definitely should've been a win. You lost against, you got smoked by the Colts.
15:52
That, you know, was kind of a coin flip type of game. So there's just already no margin for error for a team that didn't have a lot to begin with from an on-the-field standpoint.
16:00
You know, if Tua gets hurt or if the defense can't do something, things like that. So there's just not much margin for error the rest of the season, and it's way too early to be saying that.
16:09
Did you w- did you want Mc- McDaniels to get fired? I mean, I don't really see, you know, what, what good would it do other than... I m- yeah, what good would it do? I mean,
16:20
you're not gonna hire the guy who's going to take over next season in all likelihood.
16:24
You're, you know, you hire a new guy, I don't think it'd make much difference as far as, like, are you tanking for a number one pick type of thing. I don't think that matters much. So
16:32
I, I'm not against it, but I don't see much reason to do it. There's just not a lot of upside.
16:37
I think there's more upside if you keep him, and on the off chance they can make a run through a relatively soft schedule- Okay... than if you fire him and kinda start from scratch.
16:45
Uh, let's get to, uh, let's get to international football, soccer as we call it. Football. Uh, football as they call it, uh, in other parts of the world. Um, first, Champions League this week.
16:57
Did you not make any plays in the Champions League? Oh, I went 6 and 0. You guys didn't get those picks? [laughs] No, we didn't. What happened? No? Nothing? Uh, no. No. I had a few.
17:06
It's, the, the league phase is really weird.
17:08
It's the second year they've done it where it's just one giant table of 36 teams, and you're never quite sure how serious teams are gonna take it, especially early, when 24 of those 36 advance.
17:18
So I had a f- few plays, but I'm pretty cautious early on when the games mean a little bit less. All right. To the Premier League.
17:23
We do have plays in that as Paul Carr looks to move the chains once again with the weekend plays. One on Saturday. It is a total. Yeah, we're going to Liverpool-Everton. I'm taking the under two and a half.
17:34
I've probably done this half a dozen times on your show over the years in this matchup. Uh, it's a, traditionally, it's a, it's a rivalry game. This is like the Ravens-Steelers type. Ooh.
17:43
If I'm comparing it to an NFL rivalry, and those games always seem to be, like, 19-17. Uh, this is a, you know, a tight type of rivalry.
17:51
Their stadiums are very close to each other in Liverpool, and they played twice last year, one-nil. One game was actually 2-2, but the underlying numbers were far less than that.
18:01
So Everton is just gonna keep it tight also. That's what David Moyes, their manager, does, tries not to give up a lot of good chances.
18:08
They're giving up the fourth-worst shots in the league, so that's good from a defensive perspective. Liverpool's in first place. They're unbeaten. They've won all their games. But they really haven't been that good.
18:17
They're kinda, they've stolen some points, and they're, they look good, but not, like, undefeated, run away with the league type of good. So I like under two and a half here. Everton keeps it close.
18:26
Liverpool's, Liverpool's attack has not been as good as their results would indicate. Yeah, Liverpool, the, uh, the only undefeated undrawn team, if you will, in the Premier League.
18:36
Uh, Liverpool 12 points through four games, the max that you can get, uh, with a three-point lead over Arsenal and the rest of the field. By the way, Everton themselves in sixth currently- Yeah...
18:46
in the early stages of a 38-match Premier League season. Uh, to Sunday, where I believe it's our first ever appearance by Sunderland in a bet. Is that true? Ah, it might be. Yeah. Did I- Really? I'm trying to think.
18:59
I don't think I had them- Wow... in a- Well, they've been out of the Premier League for a few years. Yeah. Uh, so I have Sunderland, Aston Villa, both teams to score no, minus 110.
19:10
Uh, so Gil, there are, in the top seven leagues in England, that's basically all the ones that are professional or close to it, there are 164 teams. There is one team that has not scored yet this season.
19:21
It is Aston Villa. Wow. And that's not good. N- no goals in four games. [laughs] I'm told that's not good. It's not great. Yeah. I'm told, told it's not good, yeah.
19:29
Sunderland has four goals, but they only average about eight shots a game, so they're not an attacking menace either.
19:34
So these are two of the bottom three teams in the league in expected goals, in shot quality, and, uh, again, Sunderland's taken the fewest shots in the league. So both of these teams trying to figure it out.
19:43
Sunderland trying just to stay in the league. They're off to a decent start, but the underlying numbers suggest that they're due for some regression already.
19:49
So I'm just, I haven't seen anything from either of these teams that suggests they're going to turn into any kind of attacking juggernaut. So both teams to score no, minus 110.
19:58
I don't know which one will scrape out a goal and win this one one-nil if anything, but I don't think both of them will get a goal.
20:04
By the way, for the American sports fan, and I'm, and I'm raising my hand, can you give me the seven leagues from Premier League on down? What are the other six? Ooh.
20:11
Uh, Premier League, Championship, League One, League Two, uh, National League, and then National League, I think it's North and South. Wow. I just wanna point out I could've gotten the top four.
20:23
You could've gotten the top- I, I could have. Yeah, yeah. I always- Could've jumped in... I always mess up the second one. Champ- what's it called? The Champ- It's Championship... Championship. Championship.
20:29
Championship. Yeah, that's just the word. Not the Champions League, the Championship. No, just Championship. Yeah. The Championship. Makes no sense. Right. League- Um- Yeah...
20:35
hey, Paul, real quick, what's the, what was the average amount of shots in a, uh, on goal from a side in a Premier League game? Uh, shots on goal. Let me see. I might have that up right here right actually.
20:44
Do, do, do, doo. I know you mentioned they, the, uh- You're looking at, like, in the 12 to 15 range- Okay... somewhere in there for an average team. What- So if you're looking at, yeah, you're at 50% or less.
20:52
What about the, the worst offensive teams, how many shots on goal do they get off in, in a full soccer match? Yeah, so I'm looking, like, so far this season, so Burnley has the fewest.
21:01
They have 30 in four games, so you're looking at seven and a half a game. So that's usually about where you're gonna end up. [laughs] That's where the American sports fan sensibility just goes crazy. It's like, "Really?
21:10
The seven and a half a game for a full soccer game?" Yes. That's all they're, that's all they're getting on goal. Um- Right. All right. That's just shots period. Yeah, that's just shots period. Don't have to be on goal.
21:18
Shots, yeah. Oh, shots, not even on goal. Uh, Sunderland, Aston Villa. Right, yeah. Both teams to score no, meaning he believes there will be a shutout or a nil-nil tie. That's how you win that one.
21:29
And then finally, Arsenal and Man City, I guess, the game of the week. Yeah, big one. Yeah. Yeah, this is a big one. I think Arsenal's looked the best of any team so far this year. They're in second with nine points.
21:39
Their defense has pretty much picked up where it left off the last year or two, the best in the league.
21:44
Given up the, what, second-fewest expected goals, lowest shot quality so far, and Arsenal's played City well the last couple seasons.
21:51
Uh, 2-2 draw last year even though Arsenal was down a man, and then Arsenal won 5-1 in the other one. Uh, that was one of those games where everything goes in. They scored on five, uh, five goals on 12 shots.
22:01
Uh, but S- Man City, I pick them to win the title. Uh, their defense has not gotten any better.
22:05
It's still kind of a mess, so I think Arsenal's gonna be able to pick it apart, uh, get a goal or two, and then do what they do and defend and not give up a lot to City, who's also battering, battling injuries.
22:15
So I like Arsenal just to win this one outright, minus 110 at home. Yeah, Man City two and two to start the season. Uh, a three-pack of plays for Paul Carr.
22:24
And again, uh, VSiN subscribers will have that all at the VSiN Picks page for you as well. Paul, thank you. Um, I hope the Dolphins' season gets better, man. That's all I can say. Me too. Gotta beat the Jets next week.
22:35
Got it. Beat the Jets. The proverbial must-win situation. Paul Carr from True Media Networks, everybody, right here on The Numbers Game.
22:41
Chris Felica on the other side, all his bets, horse racing included, next on The Numbers Game. [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:58
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23:06
We invite you to check 'em out at sharpplays.com. We get tweets of being the book. Frank Albright, "Kelly has no idea. I remember watching Ali on ABC. Golden age of boxing." Yeah, if you were, if you were- Yeah, I know.
23:21
I've been told that my entire life. I get it. Like, I get I missed the best, the best boxing, but, like, we talked about this after that fight. Yeah.
23:28
You said w- what my generation was so, was sold on from boxing was- Yeah...
23:32
you've gotta respect the skill of the Mayweathers and the Pacquiaos out there because they're out there scoring points, and that's what matters in their weight class. And fi- it's fine. It's, it, it is what it is.
23:44
It's not nearly as exciting as what you guys are talking about, though, with Mike Tyson and Muhammad Ali and some of these legends- Right... of the sport. That's true. That's true.
23:52
And even, and right, and Mayweather, for as great as people think he is, that was a boring watch- Yes... so many times. So boring. And they rolled it out for how many years? Like, 15 years. Here's another one.
24:03
Uh, DrShaunathan, uh, I, talking to, to Elihu, he said, "I watched the part where you said generally buying from a push to a win is worth less than buying from a win to a push six times, and I am still trying to process it."
24:15
The Elihu Feustel, uh, by the way, Elihu said he, he sold a bunch of books, uh, from being on the other day Good. That was an awesome segment. Yeah.
24:21
Uh, so a lot of people still reacting to the Elihu Feustel Should You Buy or Should You Not Buy point segment, uh, from earlier in the week. And Vegas regular HBO drama series took off, he says, with Oz.
24:33
Great show, very dark, but excellent. That might be true. In other words, he's, he's not saying it was the first- It was a great show... 'cause it wasn't. But he's saying wh- when did it really go into the stratosphere?
24:40
I think he's right. I think it was Oz. Oz predated Sopranos and Sex and the City, if we're being specific. We got a, we got an Arliss earlier. Yeah. We- Ar- Arliss was one of those shows, though, if it...
24:51
Like, it's in our wheelhouse 'cause it was a sports agent- Yeah... he had all these famous people on. I think we wanted to like it more than it was actually great. Well, well, I completely agree with that. Yeah.
25:00
But do you not, do you don't think that got the ball rolling maybe a little bit- Maybe... towards- Yeah... towards an Oz then? Yeah, for sure. For sure.
25:06
Oz, of course, being something entirely [laughs] entirely different than Arliss was. Yes. [laughs] Uh, Chris Fallica joins us now courtesy of Progressive Gas Line for his second segment.
25:13
Always nice of him to, uh, hang out with us. It's nice to have the elbow room of two segments with you, Chris, as he comes to us from a, uh- It is...
25:20
a hotel with a gazebo and a veranda in Utah, uh, for the Utah-Texas Tech game. A resort.
25:26
Uh, before we get to your, your picks, uh, chime in on Utah-Texas Tech, where it is a battle of undefeateds at 10:00 AM Mountain tomorrow. I- am I allowed to say I hate the game? Wow.
25:38
I mean, is that, is that fair to, fair to say? From a, from a betting standpoint, I, I assume you do. Like, I, I was... I... Well, yeah, from a betting standpoint. I love the game, the, the, the...
25:47
I, I hate the game from a betting standpoint because I really have no idea what to expect.
25:51
Like, I was super high on Utah coming into this season, and then seeing what they did to UCLA the opening week was, um, eye-opening to me.
26:00
I'm like, "Wow, they might be better than I thought," and we were talking about Dan Pierre being a, a Heisman guy. And, and then you look at, like, kinda slugging past Wyoming in a kind of a predictable flat spot.
26:11
Um, UCLA really stinks right now. Might... They're probably the worst Power Four team out there. Um, and maybe you wanna downgrade Utah a little bit, and we, we don't really know anything about either of these.
26:21
Neither of them have trailed. Neither of them have faced any adversity.
26:25
And Texas Tech might be better, uh, than I was giving them credit for, though the one thing I do feel somewhat good about is that Utah will probably try and shorten the game.
26:35
A lot of Dan Pierre runs, a, a lot of running, try and win that battle up front with his offensive line and the line of scrimmage, try and keep that high-powered Tech offense off the field.
26:44
So maybe i- if you wanna maybe lean that towards an under, you, you could do that. But, uh, th- this is a game where there, there...
26:52
No, no result here would shock- [laughs] Uh, the only result I think that would shock me would be, like, a Utah blowout. But other than that, nothing would shock me. That's so funny.
27:01
That's the difference between college or pro. If you, if you think a team's gonna shorten the game and the total's 58, obviously we don't see that in the NFL, but you'd be like, "Under."
27:07
[laughs] In college you're like, "Uh, maybe." Yeah. Maybe. I don't know. Still maybe. I hear you though, Chris. Yeah. This is a tough one. I had it three on college guessing lines on Tuesday- Yeah. [laughs]...
27:15
so there's just really, really no value on either- I heard... side, to be, uh, Gil. You know? [laughs] I, I heard. You saw this game, you saw this game perfectly. You were all over. Your n- your numbers are spot on.
27:24
All over it. All right, let's go back to the horse racing stuff and, and spin it forward to college football.
27:28
So you said, um, wouldn't it be great if horse racing did these kinds of creative things, and so you landed on, in the, uh, in the Pennsylvania Derby, you landed on Big Druze. In the Cotillion, you landed on Good Cheer.
27:40
They're both the number seven horse. So if there was a seven-point spread, uh, dog, let's say, specifically, a seven-point dog in college football that you would pair those with, what would it be?
27:52
Are, are we still capturing seven with Auburn against Oklahoma? Because I can't access the wager talk site on my hotel- Checking... wifi right here in the state of Utah. Th- th- there's- Should-...
28:02
the news drop of the day... we will effort that. Yes, we are seeing sevens. Perfect. So I would take Auburn plus the seven here.
28:09
I, I think, um, Jackson Arnold, the former Oklahoma quarterback, going back to Norman this week, uh, I think his ability to def- He really hasn't needed to get Singleton and Coleman involved because they've been so good running the football.
28:23
I think overall Oklahoma might be a little bit overvalued now. The, the Mateer buzz and hype, while certainly justified, can he do this game in, game out against physical, uh, defense as he did against Michigan?
28:37
This begins that murderer's row of every r- SE- SEC opponent that they have, uh, of, of being ranked. They're gonna need more from their offense.
28:46
They're gonna need either Ott or another back against a good team, uh, to step forward. A- and if you look at Brent Venables, uh, at Oklahoma too, this is not p- typically a spot where his teams perform.
28:57
If you go back, uh, in the games where his teams have been favored by single digits in SEC play, they're two and seven. So they have dis- both, both straight up and ATS. So they have not played well on the spot.
29:08
Maybe Mateer and Arbuckle, that combination will be the difference. But I, I think, I think Auburn already having that win at Baylor matters a lot for their confidence.
29:16
I, I give Auburn a really good chance to go on the road and get the win. Okay. Um, yeah. There are sevens available. It's teetering, though. That's for sure. But there are, there are enough sevens available. Okay.
29:25
Let's go to a couple games in the ACC, where I think you'll, you'll even like the lines better than what they were. Let's start with Clemson and Syracuse, which now is Clemson minus 16 and a half. Yeah, I, I w- Wow.
29:37
That's... I'm gonna have to hop a flight to Circa right now and, uh, and fire that in, because I love Clemson here. Th- this has all the makings of a, of a get right game.
29:47
You had the Dabo i- i- implosion this week, uh, all of that talk. Syracuse's defense is terrible. Uh, gave up 45 to Tennessee. Should've lost at home to Utah, or, or, uh, UConn rather.
30:00
There have been historical instances where Syracuse has played Clemson tough, but I don't think that's the case here.
30:05
I don't know if they're gonna have Antonio Williams back, but, but this feels like a name your number type game for, uh, for Cl- for Clemson.
30:13
And if it's 16 and a half when I have to make my Fir- my Circa Friday Football Invitational picks in a few hours, uh, that, that might have a BB, uh, next to it when I hit that selection. Okay.
30:22
Well, let's keep in that theme. You like Duke, and there are minus two and a halves out there now. Well, now I have a choice. I, I don't get... I get...
30:31
Well, I get it, the fact that Duke has been their worst enemy this year, turning the ball over, special teams debacle.
30:38
But, but, I mean, their defensive line was in the backfield against Illinois, uh, like the first two and a half quarters before the, the Duke turnovers just absolutely did them in.
30:47
Uh, NC State's 3-0, but I think it's a very sketchy 3-0. Uh, interception in the end zone by Shannon Morris against Virgin- uh, against Virginia from Virginia beating them. Close win against ECU.
30:59
Were in a game against a bad Wake Forest team, uh, last week. Nothing like a, a visit from a, uh, Tobacco Road rival to kinda turn your season around. Menck has been, been playing fine. He's gonna...
31:12
I think he's gonna put up big yardage here. Two and a half, especially, like, I, I, uh, I know a lot of people are on NC State this week. I am not one of them. I like the Blue Devils. Okay.
31:21
Noticeably absent, speaking of the ACC, you are not on your Canes minus the points versus Florida here. You're staying away from that game? N- n- yeah, no, I, I'm, I'm so invested in Miami.
31:32
Bud, win the ACC, make the college football playoff. Carson Beck, uh, to win the Heisman. This, this game worries me. Uh, and it worries me only because of all of the intangible off-the-field type things. Hmm.
31:45
Uh, Florida playing for their former head coach. Uh, defense played well last week, well enough to win at LSU.
31:52
Um, Miami, uh, people now finally catching on to what we were talking about during the summer, like they're gonna be really good this year. Uh, and, and like the old Nick Saban rat poison type, type slate.
32:03
Uh, how they handle the situation tomorrow night's gonna be interesting. I think they'll handle it well. The one thing I am confident about here is I don't see Florida scoring a ton of points. I, I...
32:13
No one has been able to block, uh, Bane and Mesidor so far this year. We'll see if the Florida offensive line can.
32:19
Uh, I think it's now, uh, 13 games against FBS opponents for DJ Lagway, and it's 11 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Clearly, he is not... Something isn't right.
32:29
Uh, you heard rumblings about a shoulder injury in the off-season, and if they were to fall here, um, be interesting to see what happens next week. Florida team total- Hmm...
32:38
under 21 and a half is what, is something that I found here that, that would be the play in that game, uh, were, were I to, uh, give out a play there. Mental note on Lagway noted. Um, okay. Yeah. Men- mental note.
32:50
And then you might wanna maybe take a look at maybe some adjusted Florida win totals because I think there is a chance if, if they lose here, you could, you could see a lot of, uh, ship jumping from that Florida roster.
33:02
Wow. Uh, 30 seconds left. Let's go with a rando college football play to take us out. Yeah, Kennesaw State. Uh, uh, I think the number is f- four, right around there, four, four and a half, five.
33:13
Uh, I don't know why they're this big of a dog against Arkansas State.
33:16
I think maybe it's a reaction to Arkansas State last week, uh, against Iowa State, and what was a perfect spot to catch the Cyclones coming off that Cy-Hawk game.
33:26
Kennesaw State, the game against Indiana in Bloomington was 21-9, uh, like midway through the third quarter, so that final score was a little deceptive. Okay.
33:33
And Kennesaw State, the old Owls, capturing points here, a good chance to pull the outright upset. Chris Fallica, everybody, from Fox Sports, Bear Bets Pod, and of course, big noon tomorrow- Yeah... from Utah.
33:43
Thank you, buddy. Appreciate it. You got it, guys. Have a great week.
33:47
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:03
Back with the numbers game live from Circa. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin. We get tweets submitting a book. Y'all are the best. Thank you so much. We are always grateful for the feedback.
34:11
And remember, if you're hilarious, you can murder us. We'll still read it, as long as you're hilarious.
34:15
Uh, this is from, uh, Buddhist Man, by the way, Hall of Fame, uh, hilarious, uh, putting out some, uh, [laughs] he's quoting Chris, Chris Fallica.
34:21
"It's the fans who want the later kick, the night kick, to get sauced up and enjoy their tailgating." And he's like, Bu- Buddhist is like, "How dare you? It's my stuff."
34:28
Uh, we don't have this Johnny Brock tweet up, uh, yet, do we? We don't have that guy, Danny? No, I don't think so.
34:32
Um, someone has made an AI of you, uh, we'll get to it later, screaming because, uh, Johnny Brock says, "I was reminded of Kelly's reaction when asked if Daniel Jones is a good bet to win Comeback Player of the Year and asked AI to show his reaction."
34:44
[laughs] And he got a s- picture for us coming up, uh, later. There's some hair loss involved, though. Uh, there's a lot of weird things- Yeah... going on in this picture. I'm like in a tornado.
34:52
Fairway Fred said he bet Baker Mayfield 150 to 1 already for Offensive Player of the Year. How about that? Uh, and a Joe named Jim, "What are the odds on Indiana Jones for MVP and, uh, Offensive Player of the Year?
35:02
Any shot if he leads the Colts to a division title and double-digit wins?" I actually didn't... We, we didn't even have him on the screen, I don't think. So he is still, like, long odds on both.
35:11
Daniel Jones, 80 to 1 to be your MVP. There you go. Um, ladies and gentlemen, uh, as tweeted by Lockman here @SBOPicks, Lockman's tweet is simple. "Bob Stoll is gospel," he says. Oh, my. Wow.
35:24
Uh, I don't know if he's gospel, but I'll tell you what his record is here, uh, on the show lifetime. This is Dr. Bob and the history of being on a numbers game.
35:33
Um, 126-93-4 in the history of his football plays on a numbers game. 4-0 this season. Ladies and gentlemen, it is the aforementioned Bob Stoll, Dr. Bob. You can follow him on Twitter @DrBobSports, drbobsports.com.
35:48
He joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Bob? I'm all right, Gil. Uh, getting to the fun part of the season. Math model's taking shape after three games and really kicks in next week.
35:59
Well, I... You know, here's the deal. I... We, we usually get you on, we get one play, and I realize that you are very thorough.
36:06
So in an effort to maybe get a bonus play in, let's lev you ha- Let's let you have at the first one right now. This is your, uh, top play to provide on a numbers game. What do you got here? Yeah, it's tonight.
36:17
It's Oklahoma State's team total under 31 and a half. It was minus 110. It's up to minus 125 to minus 135. I still think there's value going under 31 and a half even at minus 135 or under 31 if your book has that.
36:31
Uh, Oklahoma's defense obviously got some negative press after giving up 69 points to Oregon, but their offense has been actually worse through two games than the defense has been.
36:40
Cowboys' starting quarterback was injured, uh, in the first week of the season.
36:44
It's UT Martin after completing just 5 of 10 passes, and backup Zane Flores has managed just 4.2 yards per pass play and 43 passes in his place.
36:52
Now, you know, giving up just 2.7 yards per pass played to Oregon is no crime. Oregon's got a great defense, but only averaging 5.7 yards per pass play on 22 pass plays against Tennessee Martin is bad.
37:06
Uh, Oklahoma State's had a problem with depth at quarterback for now four years in a row.
37:11
The last three years they've had their backups play a lot, and the backups at Oklahoma State the last three seasons have only averaged 5.4 yards per pass play on 348 pass plays.
37:20
That's a big sample of ineptitude for backup quarterbacks at Oklahoma State the last few years.
37:27
Uh, they don't run the ball well either, averaging just 3.6 yards per running play, and they got just 3.5 yards per running play against UT Martin.
37:33
Now, Oklahoma State in that game against UT Martin, just five yards per play and 27 points. UT Martin's defense is terrible.
37:40
Against UTEP, an FCS team, Southern Illinois the last two weeks, UT Martin's given up 39 and a half points per game and 7.9 yards per play.
37:49
But Oklahoma State can only imagine, only, uh, gets five yards of play against that same defense.
37:54
Now, the, the reason there's value here I think is Tulsa's defense, which was second to worst in the country last season by my metrics, hired a new defense coordinator this year, and this guy's got a track record of turning defenses around quickly.
38:07
Uh, he came to Gardner-Webb and improved that defense by 1.3 yards per play in his first season there.
38:13
Then, uh, he went, uh, in his final season at, at Gard- Gardner-Webb, his defense would have been 0.2 yards per play worse than an average FBS, FCS defense.
38:22
So a pretty solid FCS defense with talent that's F- F-, uh, F- uh, CS level. So y- we would've had a decent FBS defense there. He moved on to East Tennessee State last season.
38:34
Gardner-Webb's defense got worse by one and a half yards per play. ETSU's defense improved by 1.3 yards per play with him in his first year, and they would've been an average FBS defense last year.
38:44
So now through three games at Tulsa, his defense has given up just five yards per play against teams that would average 5.2 yards per play against an average team.
38:52
So right away, Tulsa's defense goes from terrible to about average, and he's had a track record of that. So I think, uh, Tulsa's defense underrated. Cowboys offense is terrible.
39:01
They've gone under their team total in nine of their last 11 games, and only topped 28 points twice during that span, and couldn't even do that against UT Martin.
39:08
So under, uh, 31 or more on the team total for, uh, Oklahoma State tonight. There you go. Under 31 or more. It's 31 and a half right now on Oklahoma State team total.
39:19
That's at Boone Pickens Stadium tonight, Oklahoma State, uh, hosting Tulsa. By the way, uh, game spread happens to be nine and a half on the Cowboys.
39:27
But Bob on the team total under for the Oklahoma State Cowboys, 31 and a half. Okay. Um, we have plenty of time. We have some elbow room here.
39:37
Let's go to, uh, one of the marquee match-ups of the weekend, I, I would, I would say, Miami and Florida. What do you got here? Yeah, I released Miami when it was seven and a half. It's up to nine.
39:47
I still think it's a good bet, uh, you know, even at nine or nine and a half. Uh, Florida's offense is struggling. Um, they don't run the ball well.
39:57
Uh, they average only three and a half yards a run versus the two FBS teams, and, and DJ Lagway is really struggling.
40:02
He's averaged just 5.8 yards per pass play, and that includes, um, facing LIU, you know, [laughs] blowing them out.
40:09
So, um, the, uh, the difference this season is that he's just not getting the ball down the field, and the difference between this season and last season is two wide receivers last season, uh, Jamari DK and Elijah Badger, combined for 1,400 plus yards at 11.5 yards per target against FBS teams last season.
40:30
Now, the rest of the w- Gators wide receivers last season only combined for 5.6 yards per target against FBS teams. So they had to replace DK and Badger. They have not done that.
40:42
This season's wide receivers have combined for just 6.5 yards per target, and that includes the blowout win over LIU.
40:49
Um, he, Lagway, instead of averaging 15 yards of completion like he did last year, is averaging 8.9 yards of completion this year. He's just doesn't have the receivers getting open down the field like he did last year.
41:01
They just haven't adequately replaced those guys.
41:03
Uh, Miami's defense, very good, allowing three and a half yards per running play against Notre Dame and South Florida, and their pass defense is also good relative to the, to the quarterbacks they've faced.
41:13
I just don't see Florida snapping out of the offensive funk in this game, and Florida's defense, while good, um, is not as good as Miami's offense, which is elite once again with Carson Beck at quarterback.
41:24
I just see this as a, as a pretty easy win for Miami. So, uh, Miami minus nine and a half or less for, uh, for a, for a bet there. You know, it's amazing.
41:32
I'm, I'm, I'm, as you're talking about this, Bob, I'm searching around. It really is about, you know, shopping prices, and we usually think that these things are consensus.
41:39
Well, I'm, I'm seeing a nine and a half, but I'm also seeing as low as seven and a half in some spots- Really?... that I'm betting in far away places. I was gonna say, I'm seeing a eight and a half. Wow. Yeah, so- Yeah.
41:47
Y- yeah, Bob, it feels like it's been pretty one-way traffic though until, I guess, we're looking at these numbers right now, [laughs] Gil, but it looks, it feels like all week it's been moving towards Miami.
41:56
Do you think this comes back a little bit? Where do you think this would close at? I don't know. I, I, I, I was waiting for a spot. Maybe it'll go to seven. My first thought was maybe this will go to seven. Mm-hmm.
42:06
So I just sat there for days and days and days waiting for it to go from seven and a half to seven, and then yesterday I decided this is not going to seven. I mean, too many smart people are gonna be on Miami here.
42:16
Uh, so I just released it at seven and a half yesterday. Um, and I, it could come back, 'cause I've, my initial thought was the betting public is gonna think this is too big of a number.
42:25
Um, so it might come back, but I think the smart money's gonna still be on Miami. Yeah. I l- I literally just bet a seven and a half. Nice. Uh, there's also nines and nine and a halfs out there. Miami, your bonus play.
42:37
So again, the Oklahoma State team total under tonight, 31 and a half against Tulsa, and then tomorrow at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami laying up to nine and a half on the Hurricanes. Bob, always appreciate it, man.
42:50
Let's try to get to six and O. I hope so. Thanks, Gil. Thanks, Kelly. Dr. Bob Stohl, everybody. Predictive sports modeling pioneer. Um, always a pleasure to have him on.
43:00
By the way, uh, this is, uh, this is the AI-generated of you, Kelly. Ready for this? Have you seen it yet? Yeah, I've seen it. Here it is. Kelly Bidlin as generated by, uh, I wanna give the gentleman credit here.
43:09
This is, uh, Johnny Brock on Twitter. There you go. What's with the, uh, what's with the hair shedding there? I have no idea. What's that, what's that? What's going on there? And, and I'm in a tornado apparently.
43:18
There's papers just flying rapidly behind me. [laughs] This is, you're gonna be really upset when Daniel Jones wins this, aren't you? The hair, the hair is creeping me out though. Like, what is that?
43:27
Like, uh, so, so I'm like a Wookiee or something. I got hair coming out on the outside of my, uh... I'm like Teen Wolf going on there. That's what it is, Teen Wolf. Teen Wolfitis. Teen Wolf.
43:38
You sure that's not Preston Johnson pre, pre-beard shaving? Might be as well. That could, that could be our third brother, this guy. Um, this is, by the way, this is from, uh, a Joe Named Jim on, uh, Twitter.
43:51
What are, oh, the, uh, he was the, uh, Indiana Jones guy. Pardon me. This is from, uh, oh, Ella Hoo answering questions. Ella Hoo is so great, by the way.
43:58
Everybody who has questions on the Buying Points segment, Ella Hoo is out there on Twitter answering everybody, so that's awesome. D-Gen's other gen, "Happy X anniversary, Gil.
44:05
It's the five-year anniversary of me creating my Twitter account, which I created for the sole purpose of live tweeting your show. Thanks for being a pioneer of sports betting content and interactive trendsetter."
44:13
Oh, that's very nice of you, D-Gen Southern Jet. Had no idea you opened it just to, uh, hang out with us. Interactive trendsetter. Oh, and then Mace tweeting, "Always great seeing the be-" He says, "...
44:21
the best voice on gambling radio." Thank you. Uh, "I was at the Wynn after the podcast yesterday, and this, uh, this guy came with his group of friends, like 10 deep." Oh, wow. And he's like shouting at me at the Wynn.
44:31
He's going, "Gilly!" So shout out to you, Mace. Thank you. Great to meet you.
44:35
And whoever that, whoever your buddy was who was, uh, to- was, was shouting back at me, I don't have no idea what he said, but I appreciate it. Fezik tweets, "The show starts next." Fezik next.
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