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Sep 1, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 1, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 1, 2026
00:00
37:19
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Transcript
0:00
Ladies and gentlemen, he knows all about baseball, and he's got some September monthly plays as well, and neither of them are matching mine. It's Joe Sheehan, everybody, uh, the author of the Joe Sheehan Newsletter.
0:11
You can follow him on Twitter at Joe_Sheehan, of course, joesheehan.com. He joins us now courtesy of the Progressive guest line. Joe, good morning. Good morning.
0:19
You know, fellas, as you're talking about the Cowser catch, you know, I can see you from, from my angle here, and they were showing it, it's circa behind you. Oh, wow. Actually, as you were talking about it. Yeah.
0:29
It's... Folks, if you get a chance, go online, check it out on TV. It's, and it's funny because we talk about WAR, right? And WAR is fractional and it's this really technical, there's a lot of ways to calculate it.
0:39
A play like that, you almost make the argument that, well, that should be worth one win. Sure. Because if he doesn't catch that, they lose. And if he did catch it, so they win. That's plus one WAR, right?
0:49
Winner replacement. Uh, this is a very in the weeds baseball hard oak question. [laughs] But where are we in the uniformity of WAR these days?
0:56
So I remember w- FanGraphs and, and Baseball-Reference used to have a different, I don't know if they ever got together and standardized it, but I know it's, I see different tallies for different, for, for similar players, same players.
1:07
They're, they're not. FanGraphs uses, uh... Basically the biggest difference for me is that FanGraphs will use FIP for pitchers, which is kind of your theoretical ERA.
1:16
This is what your ERA should be based on strikeout, walk, and, uh, home run rate. Baseball-Reference uses actual runs with an adjustment for the defense behind you. So they are calculated differently.
1:26
They also use different defensive inputs. Baseball-Reference uses defensive run saved from Sports Info Solutions. Uh, FanGraphs uses the StatCast system over at MLB.
1:36
So you have different inputs, you will get the different answers. I try to use them both. Um, for awards, I prefer to use Baseball-Reference though, because of the user's real runs as opposed to FIP.
1:48
Here's the thing though, guys, for awards, I'm using baseline numbers. Average, not average, OBP, slugging, offensive metrics like OPS+ or weighted runs created plus. I'm looking at defense myself.
1:59
I've moved away from using WAR on an individual level, particularly when it comes to conversations about, you know, who's better.
2:06
I think we have better ways of getting at that question without just reducing it to one number. WAR is really good, I know this is a long answer, WAR is really good for doing studies.
2:15
If I want to look and say, what happens to 32-year-olds over their, the next four years? WAR is an excellent tool for that.
2:22
So it is something that we still use, but if you actually want to do serious analysis, we have better tools for that now. I asked the right person. I was just gonna say, what a great answer- Just spectacular answer...
2:32
from Joe Sheehan for a question that we did not telegraph or tell him was coming at all. I do- Fantastic... WAR came up, I wanna know.
2:39
'Cause it said, because, you know, for, for, for people who are like, "Wait a minute, there's a stat and no one agrees on what the number is?" It's kind of like- Pretty crazy...
2:46
they gotta get together on this at some point. But, but that's a great explanation from, from Joe. Uh, okay, let's get to your September plays. You came up with two of yours.
2:58
Yeah, I wanna thank you for turning onto these mar- turning me onto these markets too. I'm really looking forward to digging in on 'em much deeper next year. Um, I've really enjoyed doing them a little bit this year.
3:06
Going into September, I've got two plays. One is towards the top of the board, and I think it's probably pretty, uh, pretty, uh, square, pretty obvious.
3:12
The Seattle Mariners, who w- took a horrifying loss last night, are at plus 550 to have the most wins in September. Now, they only have 24 games, which is second to a handful of teams that have 25.
3:23
But 17 of those are against the three worst teams in baseball, the Rockies, the Angels, and the, uh, the Athletics.
3:32
Five others are at home against the Rangers and Astros, who they really need to beat, and the other two are against the Red Sox at Fenway. It is one of the worst future schedules I have ever seen.
3:42
It is 50 points worse than the next projected schedule in September. Now look, they've been incredibly disappointing, but the baseline talent level is still there.
3:50
They've called up Kate Anderson, they've called up Lazaro Montes. Hey, look, and if they fire Dan Wilson, that's gonna be worth eight wins all by itself.
3:58
So giving the Mariners a plus 50 as the short, as one of the short shots. And then the other one, you know... Oh, sorry, Gil, go ahead. No, I was gonna say, 420, you're right.
4:06
Seattle with the easiest schedule by far the rest of the way. 420 aggregate win percentage of opponents, largely fueled by the Rockies, the Angels, and the Athletics, as you point out.
4:15
I, I, I only interrupt to say one thing. I got a text last night in the group chat from Will Hill, [laughs] who just randomly, I guess he was betting on the Mariners.
4:23
He, it's some, I'll paraphrase because I don't, I won't get this exactly, but the essence of it was, um, "Why do all these Mariners pitchers that are supposedly so great all suck?
4:32
Like, can somebody do [laughs] can somebody recheck all the stats?" [laughs] It really is such a frustration for bettors, right?
4:37
It's like all these guys are supposed to be great and it just hasn't materialized, and we're almost completed with the season.
4:42
Yeah, George Kirby's been somebody I've been backing for years, and he's been a disappoint- a disappointment this year. Uh, Bryce Miller really fell apart in the second half.
4:50
It's, it's definitely one of the big reasons that they've, uh, they've played so poorly.
4:53
Eduardo Bizzarro, who was dominant for them out of the bullpen last year, hasn't been remotely the same guy this year, and they've been missing Matt Brash.
5:00
So the starting rotation hasn't carried the day, the bullpen has been thinned out by injury, and that's how you end up being one of the most disappointing teams in baseball. Okay.
5:07
And, uh, I'm assuming the second one is a much longer shot than that. It, it is. And I'm gonna kind of follow your co- coattails here. You were on the Tigers in August, and they lost 13 out of their last 16.
5:18
Yes, they did. Uh, including last night. They got, uh, they got run out of the gym last night by the Twins.
5:22
But this is still a team, and I'm gonna go back to a number I use a lot, which is third order record, calculated by Clay Davenport, which indicates how good are you beyond your record?
5:31
When you look at the underlying performance, how you perform at the plate, how you perform in the field, your pitching, how good are you? And this is a 73 win team- Yeah... in a 63 win body. Yeah.
5:41
And I just, that's the largest difference in baseball. And, you know, that doesn't have to correct in September, but that's the way to bet. They're one of the teams that has 25 games.
5:49
They have the seventh easiest schedule in baseball coming in. And let's face it, guys, we've seen these kind of turnarounds in the AL Central the last few years. The Tigers did it two years ago.
5:58
The Guardians actually did it last year. So i- if I'm gonna look for some chaos, if I'm gonna look for a team that might go ahead and go 15 and 3 over the next 18, I'm gonna go with the Tigers.
6:08
So the numbers point me in that direction. They're plus 4- f- they're 40 to 1 at Caesars, and I think that's worth, uh, you know, a, a partial unit to go out and, uh, take a shot at that.
6:17
Interestingly, they were 60 to 1 in, uh, August, and now 40 to 1 here in September after just a horrible stretch. Yeah. Uh, but for all the reasons you state, maybe that is justified. Okay.
6:28
Uh, anything today, Joe, before you go? You know, the, uh, Nats should be getting James Wood back. Uh, they're playing the Braves tonight. They're going up against A.J. Smith-Shawver.
6:38
Wood had a rehab start Sunday, hit a home run in it. Yesterday off. We'll see if they bring him back tonight.
6:43
If they do, it's three at-bats in the first four innings against the pitcher in Shawver, Smith-Shawver, who has not really pitched that well in his last couple of starts. Uh, six walks, six strikeouts.
6:52
Remember, he's coming back from Tommy John surgery. So the Nats for the first five at plus money, I believe it was plus 20, 120 when I saw it today.
6:59
Nats' first five against Shawver, Smith-Shawver, getting Wood back, I like that play. Enjoy the Nats while you can. They only have 22 games left.
7:06
The f- by far the, uh, not by far, but singularly the lowest, uh, remaining total in all of baseball. Anything else today? I gave you one. Uh, oh, sorry, [laughs] trying to remember. The Dodgers.
7:19
Uh, Michael McGreevy goes for the Cardinals tonight. You know, he was a good story in the first half. Kind of a pitch to contact guy, was getting a lot out of that in front of a really good Cardinals defense.
7:28
Well, the Cardinals defense has been chipped away by injuries, and that's shown up a little bit in McGreevy's numbers. He has an ERA of about six, a FIP of about five over his last eight starts.
7:37
In those last eight starts, Cardinals opponents have scored 56 runs, seven a game.
7:42
So he goes up against the Dodger team tonight, who definitely has been disappointing here in the second half, but I really like this matchup for the Dodgers to get the bats going.
7:48
Their team total's over four and a half minus 118.
7:51
You're paying a little bit of juice, but I really like them to get to McGreevy, who's not a strikeout guy at all and will give up power, especially to left-handed hitters. All right, 45 seconds.
7:59
Give me a Joe Sheehan four weeks out playoff outlying opinion. Team in, team out, team getting further than we think. However you wanna answer it.
8:10
You know, the Jays have been under 500 basically all year, and I wrote up the, wrote up the, wrote them up yesterday. They're 14 and 8 in their last 22.
8:17
They, they made a trade, traded guys away at the deadline, but Brett Bateman has basically replaced Dalton Barshaw in center and been good. Jose Soriano has replaced Kevin Gausman and been good.
8:26
Uh, a n- unknown pitcher, Spencer Miles, has taken Jeff Hoffman's innings, and they've basically put it together. This is such an ugly mix of teams that a team under 500 still has a pretty good chance at the playoffs.
8:37
They go to Cleveland this week for three games. They can take two out of three. They have the tiebreaker over the Guardians, and they, uh, almost at 500.
8:43
So I think Jays right now are probably the team outside the playoff mix that can get it. Music to my ears for someone who has the m- most wins in the month of September. Joe, always a pleasure. Thank you so much, sir.
8:56
Thanks, fellas. Joe Sheehan, everybody. @joe_sheehan. Joe Sheehan newsletter, joesheehan.com. You're here because you want an edge.
9:04
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9:14
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9:21
Tap the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit with VSiN Pro. Ladies and gentlemen, he's the author of the book Trading Bases.
9:34
Uh, also the author of several other books, including Joe Peta's Tour Guide to the Masters 2019. Uh, there's also the book that he wrote assessing financial m- uh, financial pl- uh, not really financial planners.
9:49
Really portfolio managers, I should say. Uh, it was the, uh, Money Ball for the Money Set was the name of that one.
9:55
And of course, he's coming off a great talk at BetBash where he talked about the evolution of the baseball betting market. It's the great Joe Peta, everybody. Joining us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
10:05
You can follow him on Twitter @MagicRatSF, coming to us from San Francisco. Good morning, Joe. Good morning, Gil. Good morning, Kelly. Uh, thanks for doing this. Appreciate it.
10:15
Um, well, I wanna get into some of the stuff you talked about at BetBash, 'cause you get a, you gave a great sort of dissertation, among other things, about, uh, creating synthetic CLV, which I wanna get into.
10:28
But first, let's just talk about sort of the latest news with prediction markets. We have a couple companies, Novig, ProfitX, the latest, that, uh, have been mandated to switch their pricing. Explain that to us.
10:43
Yeah, they must, uh, under CFTC regulations now, they must, uh, quote their contract prices, uh, in, uh, d- um, percentage terms, uh, as opposed to American odds, which f- as sports bettors we are all used to.
10:59
Um, that sort of aligns them with what Kalshi and Polymarket have done, sort of the leaders, uh, in the space. And, and, uh, the CFTC has mandated that. They had no choice.
11:09
For sports bettors that are certainly used to the language we normally speak, it's, it's a bit of a difficult, uh, switch.
11:16
Um, I will say that I think, uh, while Novig improved on Kalshi, uh, Profit has definitely improved on all of them and has the best setup for those of us who need that, you know, sort of Berlitz English to French, uh- [laughs]...
11:33
uh, translation. Um, it's easiest to do on Profit, and it still preserves all of the price points that we are used to, uh, as, you know, bettors using, uh, American odds.
11:47
Do you think, Joe, that that will, uh, ebb the tide of migration to prediction markets in any sort of significant way? Um, no.
12:00
Um, and I will tell you that when Novig announced first last week, there was all sorts of comments back to them, back to Jacob, their, their co-founder, and to the Novig account that, "I'm withdrawing my funds.
12:12
Never, uh, you know, never betting here again." And I was like, "Really? You'll, you'll, you'll, you'll eschew better pricing, you know, for [laughs] you know, for, I don't know, for a moral high ground?"
12:25
But I watch very closely. Now, the thing about being, um, reg- uh, regulated by the CFTC is you must report your results every day as a DCM. That's what these licenses are. It's a designated contract.
12:40
Uh, what the C, uh, what the M stands for is, is, uh, um, is evading me right now. But, um, might, might be marketplace. Anyway, they have to print every day what their activity is.
12:52
Well, I've watched Novig's activity since that, you know, since the backlash from their supposed, uh, customer base. It's only grown since then. No, no noticeable backlash that I could see, uh, change in their business.
13:05
So I, I, I think it's more inconvenient, but Gil, for sure. Um, but I don't think it ultimately changes the long run. I think that's a, that's probably a very fair answer to that. I wanna...
13:16
Again, I wanna get into some of the nuts and bolts 'cause there's a lot of people listening who are like, "I, I, I only deal with traditional sportsbooks, and I, I am interested in prediction markets."
13:24
And, and we'll get into sort of a prediction market 101 here with Joe. But I, I would be remiss if I didn't sort of address some stuff going on. It's, it's... I don't know.
13:32
I think it's sort of, uh, getting louder every day, the, the conflict between the regulated sportsbook operators and their qualms with prediction markets. Um, why don't...
13:45
If, if you could, ex- uh, if you could sort of characterize what their, what their stated criticisms are, and address those, if you would. Yeah. I, I could, Gil, and we, we'd probably run through this segment.
13:57
I, I should give an overview first, which is to say that the, the, the recent criticism, the recent news has come from, from Derek at Circa, Derek Stevens, and Jeff Benson, Jeffrey Benson last night.
14:08
And, you know, my overview of both of them as professionals is that, you know, when Bugsy Siegel invented the, you know, the, the Vegas c- hotel casino strip, what, 80 years ago.
14:21
So 75 years later, it's a mature industry. So do you know how hard it is to be additive to a mature industry? And somehow Derek Stevens did it. He is additive to Vegas, right? He completely revitalized downtown.
14:35
Fremont Street might be a ghost town without him.
14:38
And my experience as an investor and for 30 years on Wall Street, and, and trader, et cetera, is I've always thought to be good at retail or hospitality, it has to be in your bones, your DNA.
14:51
You cannot MBA your way to a successful hospitality or retail outlet.
14:56
By the same token, customer service is in your blood, too, and I don't think there's a better employee in Nevada than Jeffrey Benson to, uh, you know, to be the public face and the customer service face of the sportsbook industry, right?
15:11
So that... I, I hope that conveys my respect for them as professionals. That said, if you take Derek's...
15:18
If you strip out the vitriol and the name-calling, Derek's complaint basically is these prediction markets have figured out how to circumvent state licensing and federal excise taxes, and all sorts of state transaction taxes, and as an incumbent, he's furious.
15:40
I don't disagree with what he...
15:43
You know, that fact, but I will say, my friend, that's innovation, and it's innovation that you embrace in exactly the same form that has occurred in other innovative areas of both your business and your life.
15:59
And, you know, like, uh, Lyft and Uber, those business models, it... Look, they're just taxi cab dispatchers, right? They're Louis DePalma in corporate form.
16:10
But what they figured out was how to circumvent medallion cost, franchise fees, state and local transaction taxes, and obviously those are additive to the Circa business model. Like, look at the Taj Mahal.
16:25
Like, that is to make ride sharing as easy as possible, and yet those business... Who were the complainers? The incumbent taxi drivers making the same argument that Derek does. Go back to Amazon.
16:37
Amazon, you know, their whole thing was arbing out the collection of state and local taxes. Who complained? Or sales taxes, rather. Who complained? You know, who were throwing toys out of their crib?
16:48
Walmart and Barnes & Noble making the exact same arguments. Heck, I think Circa accepts Bitcoin now for their, for their, uh, uh, contest fees.
16:57
Well, the whole origin story of Bitcoin is to circumvent government intervention. So the, these arguments fall very hollow to me.
17:07
They're just an incumbent complaining, and I think we should treat them the same way we treated the, the, you know, the arguments from other incumbents when they're being disrupted.
17:17
They love innovation when they're not being disrupted, and when they're being disrupted, they suddenly love government intervention and taxes, as long as it protects their moat.
17:28
And I will sort of add this, was my thought as you were talking, and I'm curious if, if you think this is fair.
17:34
Also, those very same people, I'm guessing, I'm guessing that if we gave them truth serum and they were betting in jurisdictions of prediction markets
17:45
where you're getting much better pricing, I'm guessing they're betting with prediction markets, aren't they? Well, they all love sports betting just as I do and you do, and if I...
17:53
You know, I, I, I did what they did as a market maker on Wall Street. I was a bookie, right? That's all I was. That's why I live in the house I live in and, you know, et cetera.
18:02
But yes- If that's what disappoints me about them embracing and like retweeting these complaints, because at their heart they're sports bettors, and if they were sports bettors they'd do the same thing we do, which is search out the best product.
18:15
Yeah. Okay, um, we'll get off this. We'll get to a little prediction market 101 on the other side.
18:21
And also, uh, Joe just did- gave a great talk at BetBash, and it- part of it, most of it, or like the crux of it, was about creating synthetic CLVs at prediction markets, and I want Joe to go through how he does that.
18:35
Joe Pease kind enough to, uh, join us for a second so that we talk prediction markets. Um, and by the way, I call... I, you know, went through j- some of the books that Joe has written.
18:44
Um, really I buried the headline with Joe. He is a, he's the head of gaming at Cantor Fitzgerald as well, oh, by the way. Um, went to Stanford's Graduate School of Business.
18:53
I bring that last part up because, uh, you were saying, this is [laughs] he texted me yesterday, Stanford obviously hosting the University of Miami, and Joe texts me. What did you text me?
19:02
Who, guess who the halftime show [laughs] is? And the halftime show is who? It is Bay Area superstar recording artist E-40- [laughs] Yeah... which, which seems very in- incongruent with a Stanford football game.
19:16
As I think I said to you, as incongru- congruent as Anita Bryant playing at a Florida State Miami game. [laughs] That's right. 40 Fonzarelli doing the halftime. And- Gil's missing all his favorites.
19:27
You missed E-40 earlier this summer. Oh, I'll go, I'm, I'm going to San Francisco on Friday. Maybe I'll... Eh, I don't know if I can sell- Well, yeah, you're leaving Friday.
19:34
You're, y- you're gonna miss your boy, uh, Babyface- Oh, yes... over at the Palms. No, I am. That's all Skipping out on him. Ah, don't get me started. Don't get me started. All right, Joe.
19:42
Uh, by the way, let me just, uh, compliment you on your, on your talk at BetBash. I was not present, but I was privileged enough to get a video of it. You, you seemed v- you didn't seem nervous at all.
19:53
Are you, are, are you a public speaker? Like, are you super comfortable in those situations?
20:00
Post the book, my first book being published, when you have to go out and g- uh, go on, you know, the, the, the book tour circuit and then do endless radio hits and podcasts, I did get very comfortable speaking, which w- you know, was a benefit.
20:16
Um, so, uh, um, it's nice to hear you say that. I'm glad it came off that, comes off that way. Yeah. Um, because yeah, you do... Uh, I have gotten good at even speaking without a script at all.
20:26
But you know, I will say, like radio hits are one thing, being on air is one thing. I used to do Summer Jams, right? We'd have 25,000 people. That's another thing, and you don't see faces, right? Yeah.
20:35
Just a sea of humanity. It's kind of easy. But when it's like 200 people or 150 people in a room or however many- It's different... that's different. Yeah.
20:43
That's hard to me, 'cause I'm like, "Oh, God, I'm being-" No- nobody- Yeah... no- nobody has ever characterized that better than Jerry Seinfeld, who in his old, old stand-up act used to say that if you ask...
20:56
You know, whenever they do surveys, what's your biggest fear? The number two fear is fear of dying, and the number one fear is public speaking. Yeah.
21:02
So as he says, that means you'd rather be in the box than giving the eulogy. [laughs] That's very true. Okay. For those listening, Joe, who, uh- Yeah...
21:13
who are, you know, they're used to betting in sports books, they're used to using apps now as well, they hear about prediction markets, they hear about Polymarket, Kalshi, Novig, Prophet X, they hear about all this stuff.
21:24
They're curious, but they haven't made the leap yet.
21:28
Can you give us the ele- may- maybe even beyond the elevator pitch, just sort of the, the, the pitch that you would give to sort of explain as simply as possible to folks, "Here's why you ought to consider it," and then make the conversion to doing it?
21:42
Yeah. The first step is just the most basic step, is the spreads are smaller, right? There's always an implied cost and an explicit cost, no matter where you trade.
21:50
On a sports book there is no explicit cost, because the implied cost is the spread, or let's call it a 20 cent spread on a normal minus 110, minus 110 game. Um, on...
22:00
When you pull up Kalshi or Polymarket, you know, or these other, w- let's just stick to those before we get to the sports native ones. You will see, um, an ins- a, a implicit spread of simply 1%.
22:13
You know, a game might be, a, a, a toss-up game will be listed as 50/51. Now, there are explicit costs in there, um, and Kalshi is very good at hiding them, not making it, you know, uh, difficult.
22:26
It's difficult to unwind, but really it's a 12 cent line. If you are a taker, if you just cross the spread and, and take the offer or hit the bid, i- it's essentially a 12 cent spread.
22:37
So no better than, say, Circa for baseball, but obviously it would be better for football. Now, at, at a Novig or Profit, it gets even better.
22:45
For Novig, if we're just talking spread total money line, there are no explicit costs at all, and the only implicit cost is the spread, and you will see the spread [laughs] it's typically one cent or two cents, and now that they're in percent terms, they go to a half percent, right?
23:00
So instead of a 1% spread, uh, you know, their tightest market will add to 100.5.
23:06
Um, at Profit, there is a 2% explicit tax on winnings or fee on winnings, but they als- their implicit costs can get even tighter, because you can still...
23:17
Each one of their percentages go to two decimals so that it's set up so it's exactly minus 101, minus 102, et cetera.
23:24
So those same price points exist, so their tightest market is virtually locked, because it would be 100 by minus 101 or 100 by plus 101.
23:35
So just simply from a user standpoint, uh, smaller transaction fees, which as we like to say, can never turn a losing bet into a winning bet, but you will lose less or win more on every single bet.
23:47
That's the simple pitch. Now, it gets even better if you wanna be a little more sophisticated. I... If you have any questions, I can go to the next sort of- No, please... phase two- Go ahead... of usage. Yes, phase two.
23:58
Okay. So that is really to me the magic of prediction markets, or what a prediction market or exchange is.
24:05
It is a mechanism to transfer wealth from the impatient person to the patient person, and that is where you can essentially turn your recreational bets into mildly plus EV bets by being a maker, so that when you go on a no vig or a profit, and let's say you see a, a game that's about to be on TV, and it looks, you know, let's say it's listed at minus 102, uh, plus 102, right?
24:35
Or minus 102, minus 102. Instead of paying minus 102, just go in there and place an order at plus 101.
24:45
It will then show up as minus 101 on the other side, and I guarantee you, you are going to get matched on a popular game with a spread that tight. That's it. That's peer-to-peer, buddy. Now you...
24:58
[laughs] That, that is peer-to-peer, and you have the plus 101 or plus 102 or plus 103, whatever you're pa- whatever you're patient enough to put out there and wait.
25:08
So it's not instantaneous, it's not a buy it now button, but it really can turn your, you know, like I say, it can turn every recreational bet into a mildly plus EV bet.
25:21
That is the real utility of a, of an exchange, and you're taking advantage of the person who just wants to cross the spread and get it done, and say, "Oh, minus 103 is better than, than minus 110, so I'll just pay it."
25:33
Well, if you're the plus 103, that's beautiful for you. We're all familiar with CLV, closing line value. Um,
25:42
Elihu Feustel with his pen name Simon Noble at Pinnacle used to talk about, "Hey, you know, bookmakers online can often predict who's gonna be successful, who's gonna be, uh, not successful based on the rate at which you beat closing line value."
25:55
People are familiar with that. You described at BetBash a way to sort of create it on prediction markets. Can you describe that for us?
26:03
Sure, and the topic sort of was how has baseball betting changed over 15 years, and one thing I know you and I have talked about off air is how
26:12
from betting overnight lines today versus 15 years ago, how much less CLV is possible to obtain. The overnight lines are much sharper than they used to be 15 years ago. Yes. Right?
26:24
They've modeled it just like the sharpest bettors used to.
26:27
So that type of CLV has shrunk, but what is available i- again, if you're patient and you're dealing in markets that aren't super crowded by, say, professional market makers, right?
26:41
But if you're doing strikeout props or touchdown props or home run props, one of the ways, what you can do is put out two offers at plus 106 on each side, and if you get taken on one side, and again, this is a few hours before the game, then try to buy it back at even money.
26:58
And if you do that, what I always say is if you s- if you have a $200 bet on one side that gets taken at plus 106, and then you get 100 of it back by being a maker at even money, your 100 left is now a plus 112 bet, right?
27:16
And if, that's CLV. If, right? [laughs] You've got, you know, you've got 100 at, if you had 200 at plus 106 and then 100 on the other side at even money, you now have a net 100 at plus 112.
27:27
Do that a few times on a market that's trading nicely like a Paul Skeen strikeout market, where you're going to get interest on both sides, and you can start that game with, like, a net position at plus 125, plus 130, you know, on a pick a market.
27:42
That's CLV, right? It's a beautiful thing. It's a very beautiful thing.
27:47
Um, hope every, uh, maybe not the, you know, again, the, the, that part at the end there, some people are gonna hear that and be like, "Oh, I'm totally doing that."
27:54
There's gonna be some others who are like, "Okay, let's go back to the 101 stuff." That stuff really resonates, I think, with people. Uh, well said, as articulated, none better does so than Joe Peter.
28:05
Always appreciate it, Joe. Thank you so much. Thanks, gents. Have a good one. Joe, Joe P- We all get smarter every time you're on, Joe. That's right. That is for sure. We really do.
28:13
It's like Roxy used to say about Rufus. He goes, "Every time I talk to Rufus Peabody- Mm-hmm... he goes, "I get a little smarter." Same thing with Joe. Uh, @MagicRatSF, by the way, for Joe on Twitter.
28:23
I don't believe I mentioned that here in this segment. Ladies and gentlemen, Jonathan Votobol joins us.
28:31
He is the co-host of Money Moves, which you can find on this network every Monday through Friday, 2:00 PM Eastern, 11:00 AM Pacific. He co-hosts it with Stormy Bonnetone.
28:41
JVT joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter @meJVT. What's happening, John? How you doing, man? Uh, pretty good. Pretty good. Uh, feeling pretty good.
28:52
Um, I'm hungry, I guess, if you guys really care about how I'm feeling right now. Wow. So I'm looking forward to eating some breakfast in a little bit. What are you- But, uh, yeah, feeling good.
28:58
What do you think you're gonna get? Something healthy and heavy? Yeah, actually, it's boring. I eat the s- yeah, I eat the same thing every time. I did have a little, I had 170 grams of, um- Wow...
29:07
of Greek yogurt right before I came on here with a little bit of honey mixed in, two pieces of Dave's Killer bread, and then I will now go and make, uh, 12 tablespoons of egg whites with two whole eggs and, uh, slam that down.
29:17
A little Parmesan cheese in there. See, he, he so wanted me to ask that question for that answer. Yes, he, yes, he did. This, this is also where JVT's next level for me- Yeah...
29:23
because, uh, I, I don't even think I told you this. A couple months ago, I was like, "All right. I'm gonna buckle down a little bit more here." Egg whites, buying egg whites. Made egg whites- Yep...
29:32
for the first time in, like, years or tasted them for the first time. No, right in the trash, never again. Ne- there's certain things I'm drawing the line at. It's that- It's egg whites...
29:41
you as- I can't dig egg whites You assume that I enjoy the taste. They, like, it is to the point now- Yeah, I can't do that. Life's too short, man... where I just shovel it, like, I just shovel it down.
29:48
I don't even taste it. I just, it is fuel for the body. This is a car, and that is the gasoline, and that is what, that's all it is, that's all it's there for. Good on you.
29:55
Hey, hey, real quick before we get to college football, how's the Vsin Flag Football team coming along? Following up on- Uh, well, our quarterback moved to Montana. I don't know if you heard. Oh, that's right.
30:04
[laughs] Um, and there might be- Yeah... there might be a rift forming in the, in the studio, actually. Um, so Fenhouse, one of our behind-the-scenes guys- Yes...
30:12
I will bring everything out front because if you tell me, then I'm just going to, it's content. Sorry, guys. Um, I guess Fenhouse was offended that he was not invited to the team, which I didn't know he wasn't invited.
30:21
[laughs] He was kind of offended when I- To the point where then- He got offended when- I brought donuts for the crew the other day, and I was like, "Hey, you want a donut?" He's like, "What does that mean?" Oh, man.
30:28
Well, okay, well, [laughs] I mean, that sounds like- Easily offended team... some deep-seated issues for Venhouse there.
30:33
[laughs] But I would say that I guess Venhouse was so offended the other day that he then challenged Justin, our producer, to a race up the stairs behind the scenes. Oh, my.
30:42
Uh, which then led to Justin beating him in said race, and then subsequently sending a challenge to Justin saying, "My flag football team will beat your flag football team." Wow.
30:50
And I woke up to a text message from, about this at like, from like 10 o'clock at night, and I'm like, "Guys, I'm 35 and I'm sleeping. Like, I don't got... Like, can you solve these beefs somewhere else?
30:59
We're not gonna have, like, a flag football civil war [laughs] like, in the Vsins studio. It's insane." Uh, also Danny's gone. I, I, I officially resign. I've resigned from the team. That's it. Yeah. Yeah. Yes.
31:10
Kelly was one of our most ardent members. He was there every time. [laughs] Yeah. Sad to see. Yeah. Let's get to real, let's get to real football. Uh, what did, what did- It is real football. What did you [laughs]...
31:18
[laughs] You know Owen, uh, Owen Wright. Yeah. Uh, the little, my little guy, my little nephew. He refused to play flag football as a child. He's like, "It's fake football, Uncle Gil. I'm not playing."
31:27
I was like, "All right, cool." Um, okay. Did you learn anything from week zero? Let's start there. Um, I mean, I think that we learned that, like... We'll go through these quick.
31:37
Like, Memphis legitimate, like, group of six, potential CFP contender if they get to the American.
31:42
I, I kind of figured that UNLV Memphis game was a CFP eliminator of sorts, so I don't think it was surprising to see that people are now kind of catching on to that.
31:50
Um, I think that we learned that North Carolina is a competent defensive team.
31:55
Uh, I, I, and this is why, 'cause I was on North Carolina in that game deal, and I think one of the things that I kept bringing up, go back to last year.
32:01
At, UNC found itself in some low-scoring one-score losses because it was just a good enough defensive team, and I think Belichick still has that fastball when it comes to improving a defensive unit, making them either competent or average or whatever term you wanna use.
32:14
And I think that the defense line's pretty good, and I think UNC's gonna be one of those teams. And by the way, Bobby Petrino kind of still have, has his fastball, too. Like, he can- Yeah...
32:21
coach offense, and I think that this team's gonna be a little bit better than what perception is. I think Virginia's legitimately good, but I do have my questions about the sustainability of that beatdown.
32:31
Guys, they threw the ball 11 times. They converted all four of their fourth downs, and they still, like, put the beatdown on UN- uh, or excuse me, on NC State.
32:39
I think they're good, but I still have my questions about Bo Pribil and some of the games where that running game isn't going as well and he's gotta sit back and throw the ball, I don't know, 12 times instead of 11.
32:47
I think there might be a couple of games there this year that that's gonna happen.
32:50
So I don't think there were any, like, massive sweeping takeaways, uh, but I do think there's a couple things you can spin forward here for these next couple of weeks.
32:57
But I think UNC maybe being a bet-on team for the most part, unless the market really adjusts its perception of that group, I think is one of those I'll carry with me for a while.
33:05
On- only thing that I have a, a slight disagreement on is, is maybe the North Carolina defense, because I do think, like, Jayden Craig was so inaccurate and missed so many huge plays, I thought, that would've been huge chunks of yardage.
33:20
And our brain just kind of purges that. But we'll see. Time will tell on all this stuff. Uh, you have a quartet of picks here, beginning with a, [laughs] with a spectacular first half team total under. Explain.
33:32
Yeah, so, uh, NIU making the, uh, the transition over to the Mountain West. So this is where that comes from, right? I've got a, a depth of Mountain West knowledge from writing the guide.
33:40
But I, I think, uh, Northern Illinois is gonna be really, really bad. For those who don't know, in February their head coach, Thomas Hammock, decided to leave to coach the running backs for the Seattle Seahawks.
33:49
So they have an interim coach right now. Uh, their former defensive coordinator, Rob Harley, is now, uh, taking over in the interim. There was a mass exodus of guys. Like, all of these dudes are gone.
33:58
And it's funny, you read little blog posts here and there, and you keep seeing these little smatterings of mentions of the time they went out to, uh, Notre Dame and pulled an upset.
34:05
This is not that same team in any way, shape, or form. I think this team's gonna be really, really bad. And I kinda think Harley's set up for failure for the most part.
34:12
It was one of the ways that I kinda set this thing up in the guide.
34:15
The defense is rebuilding, so I think when you go out to take on Iowa on, with a team that is largely built with juco's and transfers from, like, the FCS level, like, I think this is gonna be a very, very poor performance for Northern Illinois.
34:28
But instead of maybe getting burned by, like, what San, San Jose State did over the weekend, which is score a bunch of points in garbage time against USC's third stringers, I'm just gonna go with the first half team total under two and a half.
34:39
I largely expect this Huskies offense to be one of the worst in the Mountain West.
34:42
And so going out there, getting the full bore effort of the first and second stringers against Iowa, I think it's gonna be a pretty rough first half for this group.
34:49
I wouldn't say no to the six and a half for the game, but again, I don't wanna run the risk of garbage time Iowa letting the foot off the gas and give it up, like, some easy points or whatever it is, but I do think they're gonna get stifled here.
34:59
So that's the theory. We're gonna go with Northern Illinois first half team total under two and a half at plus 105. Wow. Love it. Uh, Hawaii loses Stanford.
35:07
Not only do they lose, they don't cover in the end o- uh, on the scoop and score. Yeah. And then your UNLV Rebels lose to Memphis. Hawaii's playing UNLV. What do you have here?
35:18
So I think that's gonna be a theme for me unless I feel like the market's made a little bit of a change. I think the market's too high on UNLV. They were...
35:24
I, I grabbed six and a half at one point with UNLV against Memphis. They close as, like, four, four and a half, and they ultimately don't get there and lose outright. And then Gil, here we are.
35:32
The original number for this was UNLV minus one and a half. What did you see last week that makes you think, "You know what? This should be actually a key number here on the road against Hawaii"? Nada. Nada.
35:41
It's a- Yeah. Right, yeah. Yeah. It's a big rivalry spot for those who don't know. Uh, they play for the Golden Pineapple. I would also say, too, uh, remember UNLV's starting center got rolled up on and his ankle hurt.
35:52
As of now I haven't seen what the MRIs are, but, uh, I don't think he is going to play this week. Their offensive line was abysmal. They couldn't run block. They couldn't pass block.
36:00
I just don't think that anything we saw from last week said, "You know what? We're gonna put up a three here."
36:05
You could hold out and wait for three and a half, but I think taking three is perfectly fine, and I don't think it's gonna get to that three and a half. So give me Hawaii at home.
36:10
Uh, last two, Central Michigan and New Mexico, UCLA and Cal. Yeah. What do you have on these? Yeah, I'll do real quick. Central Michigan, I just like the way they run their offense. Got, like, some Army principles to it.
36:19
They run the ball really, really well. I still have my questions about New Mexico, especially on defense. They did not do well in the role of favorites last year.
36:25
You got a three-headed monster, I guess you'd wanna call it, at quarterback because Jack Lane injured his elbow and he's still not recovered. So you don't know who's gonna play there.
36:32
And then for Cal, I just like this Cal team. I think Jaren Cave Sangopolatele is gonna be the first overall pick when he comes out in the NFL draft.
36:38
I think that they've invested a lot in this team from an NIL perspective, and they're better than what they're given credit for. Give me Cal to win outright as a small dog at home. There it is.
36:46
Jonathan Montobl with flag football strife, navigating through that. You're right, our quarterback did leave for Montana. Yeah. And by our, I mean Vsins quarterback, Danny Higgins. Thank you, Jon. Appreciate it.
36:57
We'll, uh, tune in f- with you and Stormy later today. Yep. See you in a little bit, guys. 2:00 PM Eastern, 11:00 AM Pacific for Money Moves with Story lonetony and Jonathan Von Tobel.
37:07
Uh, still to come, oh, how about some division last place finishes in Major League Baseball? Why don't we take a gander at that? We'll do that next. Numbers game. Vsins, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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