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Sep 25, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | September 25, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | September 25, 2024
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34:47
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
0:11
It is the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, where sports betting lives. It's Gil Alexander.
0:19
It's Kelly Midlin live from Circa Resort and Casino, downtown Las Vegas. How you doing, sir? Doing well. How about you? I am good. You have put together a fine one today, sir. Um, we are covering it all.
0:32
WNBA, how about some WNBA today? Boom, Shoemaker. Shoemaker, maybe some, uh- A- A.K.A the shoe breaker... maybe some, uh, basketball footage of Shoemaker yo-yoing the dribble. That's right. Doing a hesi. Breaking shoes.
0:44
Maybe dunking on somebody. Uh, we had half of the, uh, the WNBA first round end last night, um, with The Liberty and The Aces advancing, no surprise. Uh, tonight, Caitlin Clark in action. Do you have Indiana Fever fever?
1:01
You know what? I mean, yes, I- I'll be watching. It's g- I lo- I love basketball. I'm a basketball fan, right? This could be the end for Caitlin, right?
1:07
I ended up watching way more last night than I- I think I would've ever- Me too... expected watching. Me too. Uh- Yeah... I, but man, The Liberty and Aces both are so fun to watch.
1:14
Can't wait to see them further on in the playoffs. I hope Caitlin Clark, uh, somehow mixes it up and gets into the, some- Me too... the Final Four here. It'll be great. They're on the brink of elimination.
1:23
I'd like how the WNBA does a best of three right off the bat. Yeah, me too.
1:26
Though, again, the, the scheduling where they, where they schedule all the game, game ones or games one, however you're supposed to say that, on a football Sunday.
1:35
By the way, for people complaining about that, it's all because of ESPN, right? Yeah.
1:38
ESPN doesn't have an NFL package, so they throw the WNBA on there, and then Monday night they do have football, so they don't throw the WNBA on Monday. I- I- It's a whole thing...
1:47
the power of Caitlin Clark, I read something this morning. The, uh, I think that was their most watched ever WNBA game was Sunday. So even in the middle of an NFL slate, they're still pulling in that many viewers.
1:56
Well, we will talk, uh, Caitlin Clark and of course the two, uh, WNBA games with Tyler later. And we will also have Matt Lindeman in to talk college football.
2:03
He's got a three-pack of picks that include some of the, uh, cardiac kids from this past week in college football, so we'll do that as well. Power rankings in the NFL, Jason, so much more. Yeah. We'll get to it all.
2:16
Uh, I wanna start, uh, first of all, a couple things. One, a little housekeeping. Tennis is in Beijing and Tokyo, so sometimes this week I will have picks on the show that haven't started yet.
2:26
Most of the time they will have already been played overnight, including our one play last night was on, uh, Gret Minnen. Uh, she was a winner in straight sets, so a winner for those who are subscribers, vsin.com/picks.
2:38
Every host, every guest, every sport at the network, uh, at vsin.com/picks, so it pays to be a subscriber.
2:46
So, uh, on the board there in the Asian part of this tour, and obviously they have been there now, uh, for a few weeks. They were in Thailand and in, uh, Korea couple weeks, uh, these past couple weeks.
2:59
Uh, as far as baseball, I got, uh, I got good news and I got bad news. Let's start with the good news about our bets, and hopefully, uh, if you're riding along with these, you feel the same way.
3:08
Here in the American League, all good news. Our Detroit Tigers bet, which we made last week at plus 450, looking good.
3:16
Tigers and Royals now with a two-game lead over the Minnesota Twins for that, I guess now at this point, second and third final card, uh, final wild card positions in the American League playoff picture with just five games to go.
3:30
Look at this collapse by the Minnesota Twins. End, this is end of play August 10th. The Tigers were 11 games behind the Twins and 10 behind the Royals for that final playoff spot. What?
3:44
Since then, this is August 10th, Kelly.
3:47
Since then, the Tigers have gone 28 and 11, while the Royals, who are really trying to give it up, our Royals who we have in a, uh, World Series, uh, matchup, they've gone 18 and 21.
3:58
They are the, they are the quintessential "Here, take the newspaper" team- [laughs]... at 18 and 21. Minnesota even worse at 16 and 25.
4:07
That has completely flipped the standings, and then r- as they are right now currently, Detroit and Kansas City both 83 and 74 with a two-game lead over the Twins for, again, that final third, uh, that final wildcard position, the sixth overall seed in the American League.
4:21
Minnesota now closer to the teams that are behind them, Seattle and Boston, than they are to Detroit and Kansas City.
4:28
And Kansas City just eked out a one to nothing, uh, win in extras last night against the Natties as Bobby Witt Jr. came to the rescue. So that's looking good. There's still five games left. It's still not over.
4:38
Still won't be over no matter what happens today because Minnesota has the tiebreaker over both the Tigers and the Royals. So s- not home yet, but looking good. By the way, Kansas City has a tiebreaker over Detroit.
4:48
When did you, when did you make that Tigers bet? Like end of August? No, last week. You were right here. Were you here? Last week. [laughs] Were you present? That was only last week? Yes. Why does it feel like weeks ago?
4:57
Remember, I made it at the plus four- 450. I came in that morning, I'm like, "It's still plus 380. Everybody go out and bet it." Yeah, yeah, yeah. And then the next day it was plus 140. That's right. That's right.
5:05
So I was like, "Yeah, no." Yeah. Like crazy movement. Now, here's the bad news, which has good news and bad news within it. Let's go to the National League.
5:12
This is the one that I have at, at, uh, plus 750 in real life, eight to one here on the show in our little VSiN show versus show futures thing.
5:22
Last night, the Atlanta Braves beat the New York Mets in the first of their three-game set in Atlanta. They beat them handily five to one in a game that felt like it was 50 to one, and Arizona loses again to the Giants.
5:33
It is not lost on me, again, that the Washington Commodores knocked me out of Survivor and that the Giants swept the Royals and now are trying to sweep the Diamondbacks.
5:42
So right now, for the final two positions in the National League wild card race, the Mets with a half game lead over the Diamondbacks, who have a half game lead over the Braves, who are just on the outside looking in.
5:55
Now, the bad news is that, that, that game last night felt very reminiscent of that- Three-game set that the, uh, Braves swept the Mets in two years ago.
6:06
Remember when I had the, count them, 17 plus money bets on the Braves to win that division? Ah, that felt really like that last night, and it was, it was not a good feeling.
6:17
Jeff Parls, Mets fan, was not happy with what he was seeing. He was starting to get that, the heebie-jeebies on that as well. So here, that's the bad news.
6:24
The bad news is that the c- the Braves have the tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks, the Mets have the tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks, and as far as Atlanta and the Mets, this series will determine that tiebreaker.
6:35
'Cause remember, there's no play-in games, there's no wildcard games. It's all done by head-to-head. So right now, Atlanta with a six to five lead over the Mets.
6:42
So the good news, if I can say that in quotes, the good news is this: the Diamondbacks with four games left to play, it's still on their racket. They still control their own destiny.
6:53
They're benefiting from the fact that Atlanta plays the Mets right now. So Arizona, you just gotta take care of business and you're in. You don't have to look at the scoreboard. And the Mets,
7:03
uh, as far as knocking out the Braves, 'cause remember, our bet is about the Braves not making the, uh, the postseason and Arizona, uh, with a World Series, uh, matchup.
7:12
The Mets just have to win one of these remaining two, one of these remaining two against Atlanta, to still control their own destiny heading into their final three games, which is at Milwaukee, and Milwaukee may not have anything to play for at that point, 'cause they will have been perhaps shut out of the top two seeds, uh, heading into that final series.
7:31
So the Mets just have to win one to maintain their des- th- their, uh, controlling of their own destiny.
7:39
If they win both of these against Atlanta, they have clinched a playoff berth 'cause they will effectively boxed out Atlanta, uh, at that point, given the, uh, given the situation now with so, so few games left.
7:50
So that's the good news. The bad news is what happened last night, though. Braves win, Mets lose, and of course, the Diamondbacks lose on top of that, so it's getting very, very hairy in the National League.
8:01
And by the way, if you looked at the odds now for the Braves to make the playoffs, they are big favorites, over $2 favorites to make the playoffs.
8:08
So again, th- these things can change massively with just one day's result. And let me just say this about Major League Baseball. You have the entire day to, to show your product to the world.
8:19
There is only one day game in Major League Baseball today, and it has nothing to do with any of this. So bad. Yeah, we have Braves minus 215, yes to make the playoffs. Mets minus 290, Diamondbacks minus 165.
8:32
Right, but if the Mets win tonight and the Diamondbacks win, that completely flips again. Right. Right. [laughs] You know? So it's like, it's, th- super volatile change is possible there.
8:39
And there is still, still weather concerns for this series, right? And that's the other thing. Yeah.
8:43
There's these big weather concerns with the hurricane in Georgia, and so that's a w- I was talking to Parls about this too yesterday, 'cause he's a huge Mets fan.
8:51
He was like, "I want the hurricane to come now so that the Mets can possibly avoid Sale and Freed and play the Braves on Monday." I'm not sure if it would work that way, by the way.
9:02
Um, but anyway, there's that consideration as well. Yeah. So we'll see. Everybody stay safe in Florida. I think I saw something today, like the entire state's on tropical storm watch- Yes...
9:10
or the entire Sou- area of South Florida is. Yes. And if you have spent any time in that region of the country, you know how serious that can be. Um, Survivor. Here's the thing about Survivor.
9:19
We went through it, you know, hugely yesterday, so we're not gonna go crazy on it today. But as I mentioned, 95.5% of the, uh, entries are out in Circus Survivor. That is reflective.
9:28
Todd Wright does a, uh, Survivor podcast. He said this as well, uh, 'cause he's aware of a lot of other ones nationally. But it's reflective of, of the percentage that is out in most, right?
9:38
95.5% gone, and so it's sort of a self-cannibalizing thing when we're doing content like, like we're doing, Kelly, because only 1 out of 20 people are still involved. Yeah.
9:51
So you can't really go segments on end talking about it, but we will address it. We won't stop talking about it, but you get the idea. Uh, we'll temper that.
9:59
Here are your best week four Survivor options in terms of the spreads in the National Football League. Cowboys, six-point favorites at the Giants. Texans, seven-point favorites at home against the Jags.
10:09
Jets, seven and a half at home against the Broncos. Niners, 10-point favorites at home against the Patriots, and the Chiefs are eight-point favorites at the Chargers.
10:17
So those, by the numbers anyway, would be your most, uh, natural options. And I'll just take it from the top, Kelly. You can chime in. Cowboys, don't trust it. Uh, this is me, I don't trust it.
10:28
Texans, I would've already have used them, so I can't consider them. Uh, Jets- Oh, where did you play them at? Week two. Okay. I played them in both? Yeah. Week two. Uh, Jets- Oh yeah, that's right. We both did.
10:40
That's right. Jets hosting the Broncos. Okay, I could probably trust that one.
10:44
Niners hosting the Patriots, I think I can trust that one, even at, with the Niners in banged-up condition, and there is no Christmas or Thanksgiving consideration with the Niners. Mm-hmm.
10:53
With the Chiefs, there is, so you probably wanna save them if you're in Circa. So to me, it would be Jets or Niners. What could go wrong?
10:59
It's, uh, if, yeah, if you're not playing in Circa, I think I'd be, I'd gravitate more towards the Chiefs. Right. They have their own injuries, but man, I think this. Like I, I, I've teased the Chiefs.
11:10
I mean, teaser, tea- teaser legs with fa- big favorites, uh, Gil, breaking news, have not worked out very well this year 'cause, uh, they keep just losing outright.
11:17
[laughs] Um, I d- I do, I do have them in a teaser with the Bills, though. They, and like, the Chargers, like resting Herbert seems to make too much sense to me. You've got both the tackles are hurt this week.
11:28
I, man, I, it, it feels like, it just feels like Harbaugh's getting a lot of love still from the oddsmakers. Lot of love. Um, anyway, that's your brief Survivor update. Good luck, I mean, and who are we to talk?
11:39
Good luck to all who are still involved. Uh, Mark Borchardt, gotta talk more about baseball, all his plays today, what his thoughts are on the playoff picture.
11:47
It's next on a Numbers Game at VSAN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Hey, Kelly, I know you're trying to destroy that keyboard, but I gotta read a promo here.
12:04
Can you keep it down? [laughs] The NHL season is almost here, and our hockey betting experts are ready for all the action.
12:10
Our all-new NHL Betting Guide from VSiN out now with strategies for betting the NHL, including previews of all 32 teams, Stanley Cup odds, and predictions, and of course, best bets.
12:19
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12:33
Don't miss our must-have NHL Betting Guide. Adam Burke did a spectacular job on this. Packed with key insights and data for both avid hockey bettors and those new to the sport.
12:42
Sign up for just 9.99 for your first month at vsin.com/subscribe. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe.
12:49
You think Adam Burke is, uh, more excited about the, uh, V8-- uh, the, uh, VSiN NHL Betting Guide or the fact that Lindeman is on the show today? [laughs] I, I don't know. He's excited that Matt Lindeman's on.
12:58
Very excited. I'm excited as well. I am pumped for a little Matt Lindeman college football. Uh, we get tweets @BeatingTheBook.
13:03
ThreeJackH3131, "Waiting for the day that Gil walks in and says, 'Hey, uh, Kelly Bidley- [laughs]... Hey, Kelly Bidley, what the hell kind of show did you put together today?'" Oh, it's coming.
13:13
[laughs] I'm sure, one of these days. Uh. Uh, this- It could happen. Gil's too good of a guy. He pr- It's- He probably says it in his mind a lot In my mind, I'm like- [laughs]... this is the worst radio ever. Yeah.
13:23
Jesse Welch, "Hurricane on its way to Florida? Kelly didn't tell us you were taking the rest of the week off to go to a wedding." [laughs] I broke the streak, Jesse. I broke the streak. Yes.
13:30
I am not following the hurricane this time around. [laughs] He, he makes plans based on, uh, on, on hurricane sort of chasing- Yeah... is what you do. Uh, and this from Jason Stark, not that Jason Stark, but another.
13:41
Uh, he does correct me here. He says, "The day game does have something to do with the AL wild card race." I was referring to the teams that I was talking about, Jason. Uh, but he's right.
13:48
The Mariners need to win to stay alive. With the Twins and Royals collapsing, they still have a puncher's chance. They do. They have a puncher's chance.
13:53
As I said, the Twins are closer to the Mariners and the Red Sox, uh, certainly the Mariners, than they are to the actual teams they're chasing at this point.
14:02
Uh, let's talk some baseball with Mark Borchardt, everybody, from an undisclosed location somewhere in the desert. He comes to us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him @basewinner, at basewinner.com.
14:13
And of course, he does the Bet US Baseball Show on a daily basis. Mark Borchardt, everybody. How you doing, Marky Mark? Every day but Wednesday.
14:20
You know, Wednesday is my day off, but I'll-- I, I go on your show on my day off, Gil. That's, that's the kind of guy that I am. Wow. That is, uh, and I remember you telling me that before, so I wanna thank you for that.
14:29
It is your day off, and you still hang out with us, so thank you. What's-- It's fun to be on your show. It's, it's, uh, it's like a vacation. Oh. I love talking baseball with you. Very nice.
14:37
Well, let's-- This is, it doesn't get any better than this, does it, in terms of the wild card races? This is what Major League Baseball wanted, right?
14:43
They wanted teams to be involved late, and they have gotten that, at least, uh, in the American League to some extent, although that seems to be fading, but we'll see.
14:52
Uh, the National League is a log jam between the Mets, the Diamondbacks, and the Braves, as we talked about last segment, for those final two positions, and the Braves from the dead kind of here.
15:03
Not really from the dead. I shouldn't say that. It's just that it, it, they were always lurking.
15:07
They deserve a lot of credit because they've had a lot of key injuries, and yet here they are, and all these teams control their own destiny, right? There's no scoreboard watching at this point for any of these teams.
15:19
How do you think it shakes out? Oh, this is great, Gil. I mean, it, it really kind of is an exercise in probability because when you look at it, all the teams are technically favorites to make the, the, the postseason.
15:31
You've got, I've got the Mets at 76.8%, the Braves at 62.3%, and the Diamondbacks at 60.8%. And you say, "Well, how, how can they all be favorites?" Well, the combined probability adds up to 200%, and there's two spots.
15:44
So that's how it works, Gil. Yeah, and the- It's really, it's, it's cool... if the Diamondbacks are not to make it, they will look back at Sunday's game while we were all watching football.
15:54
They led the Brewers eight to nothing and coughed it up.
15:59
They gakked that game 10 to nine, even though the great Randall Grichuk tried to make it closer, or tried to give the, uh, the Diamondbacks the, uh, the uns- the insurmountable lead at nine to six late. It wasn't though.
16:10
10 to nine, the Brewers win that. Um, what do, what do you make of these teams in the postseason? Of these three, Mets, Diamondbacks, and Braves, which is the one you would be most fearful of playing in the postseason?
16:24
I think the Braves. The Braves have the best bullpen, third-best starting pitching by my ratings, and, you know, the team's kind of, kind of gotten a spark here in the last two weeks.
16:33
If you look at the FanGraphs award since, uh, 9/15, so that's almost about two weeks, uh, they're third in baseball from an OPS standpoint, only behind the Dodgers.
16:43
Uh, and so I think that, uh, you know, when you, when you look at that, I... You know,
16:49
sometimes you don't think about, like, just the psychological advantage, and you fig- figure this team's just been really banged up all year.
16:56
And they got Albies in, and coincidentally, they've, they've really hit well since he's been in the lineup. And so you're, you're getting good production, uh, by, by five guys in that, in that order.
17:05
So the Braves for me, because of their, uh, obviously their starting pitching, uh, a- and their relief, but, uh, I think that the, that the, the batting for them is, is starting to kind of catch on, Gil.
17:16
Same question for the teams that are vying for the final AL wild card positions. Detroit is the, the hottest team in baseball. Kansas City is just-- Look, Kansas City, again, they are limping in.
17:27
They're trying to give it to Minnesota. Um, Minnesota refuses to take it from, [laughs] from them. But does that carry over for you to the postseason? Do you think that any of that matters?
17:40
Or is it just one of these situations where, "Hey, if you get in, wipe the slate, you can actually perform completely differently"? 'Cause we've seen that before, right?
17:49
Yeah, I think you have to look at, at the team's bullpens, and I, I, I don't, I don't necessarily know that, that, that Kansas City has that elite bullpen to c- to carry it on.
17:58
Yeah, I, I think that that American League, just looking at the pricing for me, it's priced about right. I think where the value is, is in the National League, Gil National League s- specifically with, with what?
18:11
Just to clarify No, I take the, I would take the Padres to win the, the National League, and I would take the Padres to win, uh, the World Series.
18:19
So if you're looking at, you know, from, from a pure probability standpoint, uh, the... I just wanna see what the numbers are, because you're, you're...
18:27
I'm looking at with the, with the Padres to win the World Series at plus 438, and then in the market, I, I think that they're, they're a lot better than that. I don't, I don't know the exact price.
18:38
Maybe you can pull that up for me. Yeah, we'll find. It's longer than plus 438, I'll tell you that much. That's for sure. Yeah, it's plus 900 at- Yeah... BetUS. So, so that's, that's pretty impressive.
18:47
And what's interesting, too, is, is, is that if the Braves do make it, uh, they have some value as well.
18:53
I've got them, uh, with a, uh, to win the World Series, I'm just looking at these, 6.2% chance to win the World Series, which would be priced at, uh, plus 1500, and then in the market you get them at 28 to 1.
19:04
So I think that that's a pretty value- [laughs] valuable long shot play considering if you just look at their components, too. Uh, that bullpen's very solid. I have them, uh, the best in baseball.
19:13
And then the starting pitching, I mean, they've got, uh, Schwielenbach's been really good. Yeah. They got the Cy Young winner with Sale, and then, then a Max Fried.
19:20
So I, I think that you could put that rotation up against pretty much anybody, Gil. Yeah, the, the Schwielenbach thing is, is amazing, too, because his numbers against great competition is really where he steps up.
19:31
Like, if you look at his numbers versus other playoff teams, he's been incredible. So there's that.
19:37
The, the other thing about the Padres that, that should be mentioned, and we could throw this up, guys, if you can, which is the, uh, the best record in Major League Baseball, this isn't done yet.
19:45
Like, the, the National League West isn't done, nor is the best record in baseball. The Dodgers have the best record, uh, right now, but again, we have a handful of games left. They're 93 and 64 are the Dodgers.
19:57
Then the Phillies are 93 and 65. By the way, the Phillies taking the night off completely yesterday against the Cubs after their celebration. Then it's the Yankees. But look at the Padres.
20:05
The Padres are actually two games behind the Dodgers in the NL West. [laughs] That ain't over either, which is sneaking up on everybody, I think. Yeah, no, I have them with a 17%.
20:15
Still, still an outside chance, but 17%, uh, plus 480. They're plus 500 in the market, and, uh, uh, you know, that, that was an amazing game last night. They got a really good outing from King, Gil.
20:27
They got a great outing from King, and they won the game and clinched a playoff berth on a game-closing triple play, which is just awesome.
20:35
Orioles clinched last night, by the way, their win in the Bronx, and the Padres, on a triple play, get into the postseason. They were gonna get there anyway, but nice dramatic flair. What did you play today?
20:45
You know, I'm gonna play, uh, a parlay with the Phillies and the Braves. I, I, I like Sale tonight. I've got him priced at minus 202. They're, like, minus 175-ish in the market. Uh, I, I like Philly tonight.
20:58
Uh, I, I think that, uh, you know, you have to keep some kind of consistency.
21:02
I, I would, I would think that from a professionalism standpoint, uh, you know, maybe you take one night off, but you're gonna come back today. I, I think that they're, they should win.
21:11
Definitely a huge pitching advantage with Sanchez versus Asad. I've got that priced about minus 190. It's a little bit of value i, in the market. I'm gonna go with a parlay there.
21:21
Uh, y- you lay a unit to win 1.47 units, so plus 147, Gil. Uh, there's a couple of, like, weird underdogs that I like. I like the, the Nationals today. I'm gonna play it first five, Washington minus 104.
21:36
I think there's a big pitching advantage with the starting pitching. I'm not a huge fan of, of Michael Lorenzen, and then this guy DJ Hertz. He's not a DJ. Uh, like, you would be a DJ, like a, a rave DJ Megahertz.
21:48
[laughs] You know? But every time I see that, that's what I think of. [laughs] Uh, but, but you have the, you have the advantage here.
21:53
Uh, I've got it priced on the five-inning line about minus 150 for the, for the Nationals, and you're getting that at minus 104. I think that's pretty valuable.
22:00
And then I think that this game, this Yankees-Orioles game, I think it's a little bit low from a, a run projection standpoint.
22:07
Uh, I've got nine runs in the full game, and if you can get it in the market at eight for even money, I think that's, that's pretty valuable. You know, you're looking at this Yankees, uh, offense, best in baseball.
22:16
And then I don't, I'm not really sold on their bullpen.
22:18
They, they've, they've got some, uh, concerning numbers in that bullpen, uh, going into, uh, into the playoffs, but more importantly going into this game for the total, Gil. So those are the, those are my plays.
22:27
Mark Borchitt, everybody, @basewinner. You can follow him, uh, on Twitter at that, also basewinner.com, and of course the Bet US show that he does.
22:34
And if hi- and if his name were DJ Hertz, he would be a DJ calling himself DJ Megahertz. [laughs] That was my big takeaway from that as well. Thank you, Mark. Appreciate it. Thanks, Gil. I appreciate it, man.
22:45
How about some NFL power rankings next? Oh, this should be different. Coming up on The Numbers Game. [upbeat music] The numbers tell the story. They always do. For all those idiots who believe in analytics.
23:01
This is The Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Hour number two of The Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it.
23:12
We don't care which way. We just appreciate it any which way. Um, truly grateful for that, that you make us part of your morning each and every morning. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Midlin live from Circa.
23:23
Uh, still to come this hour, Matt Linderman joins us, the assistant director of trading over at the Wynn, but he still bet in college sports. We have him for college baseball sometimes.
23:32
We got him for college football today. Obviously college basketball as well. Yep. So he, uh, he runs the gamut, so we'll talk, uh, he's got three best bets in college football.
23:40
Jason Weingarten from Under a Cloud of Smoke. By the way, Jason wrote a, like, Mein Kampf on Skeens versus Merrill- [laughs]... at vsin.com. It's amazing. I saw it was up. I didn't get a chance to read it. Oh, yeah.
23:52
I don't know if you w- uh, in the end, like, I read the whole thing and I'm still like, "Skeens probably still gonna win." [laughs] Like, that was my thought. Right.
23:57
[laughs] But, but it's still, it's really well thought out, and, uh, you should check that out. Not during this show, but you should check it out at some point.
24:04
Um, and Tyler Shoemaker standing by to talk WNBA and college football with us. Uh, we get tweets at Beating The Book, because I think this Matthew Sluka story is, is fascinating to most.
24:13
Jason McKinney says, [laughs] he goes, "The biggest question of the college football holdouts is, can the mid-season transfers be updated on EA College Football 25?" [laughs] Great question.
24:21
There is, there is that consideration, of course.
24:23
Um, and then there's a couple more here, and I think, uh, Bainbridge DeWeese, "I know an FBS c- uh, head coach, and he has to chase down people who promise to pay NIL money to his players all the time."
24:34
Yeah, this is wild. "Surprised we haven't seen this story before and frequently." I am with you- I agree... Bainbridge DeWeese.
24:40
If, if that, if that's really what's going on, how have we not seen this become a problem already?
24:44
Well, this is, listen The, the biggest thing that I've always said about this is we don't really have any idea the kind of dollars we're talking about here.
24:52
Like, this is in the millions for some, and it is big time stuff going on. You have, you have something you wanted to, uh, address. Yeah, it was, uh, Pete Thamel, a little bit on this story, uh, about a half hour ago.
25:03
If, uh, it was NIL representation that Sluka had. Marcus Cromartie of Equity Sports told ESPN that Sluka was verbally promised a minimum of $100,000 from a UNLV assistant coach for transferring there.
25:15
None of that money was paid, per Cromartie. The only money that Sluka ha- has received from UNLV, per Cromartie, is a $3,000 relocation stipend for his move.
25:25
Uh, Cromartie said there was never an ask for more money after UNLV's hot start, only ini- the initial amount he was promised. Several more tw- uh, tweets from Pete on that.
25:34
So head over to, uh- Well, this is from Adam Rittenberg at ESPN.
25:37
It says, "Bob Sluka, father of Matthew Sluka," UNLV's quarterback, "told ESPN that his son's agents agreed to an NIL deal with the school back in February, never received payments despite requests, and never asked for any adjustments to the original deal."
25:54
Um, quote, "We have no idea what the hell happened. They keep deferring. 'We don't know. You have to wait,' Bob Sluka told, uh, Adam Rittenberg. Then it was like, 'We're gonna give him game checks.'
26:05
So we're like, 'Okay, great.' We did not s- we did not ask for a single dollar more. Sluka added that Matt's living expenses weren't even covered." So again, it's a complete he said, she said at this point. Wow. Yeah.
26:17
Or he said, he said in this case. And so it really comes down to what you believe, and none of us knows the truth at this point. That's wild. Yeah.
26:26
And you c- And if, and if the, if the Sluka side is telling the truth, I can totally get their point of view. If they're not, it's like college football mayhem. [laughs] Right, right. Um, yeah. By the way- Eh...
26:37
thank you to Matthew Sosnick for pointing out the Adam Rittenberg piece to me.
26:41
Uh, okay, let's talk some, uh, college football and some WNBA with Tyler Shoemaker, who's kind enough to join us right now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line.
26:48
Tyler, uh, before any segment with you, we like to show a little T- Tyler Shoemaker basketball video. Please, let's roll it, ladies and gentlemen. Tyler Shoemaker- This is another good one. Yeah... on the court.
26:59
Here he is. Oh. He's 23. Nice triple threat baseline. Oh. Oh, watch out for the hesi! Oh, the hesi and the ba- behind the back to the rack. [laughs] Tyler Shoemaker not shy of wearing number 23, Michael James Jordan.
27:11
There you go. Do, doing the whole I'm trapped on the baseline. But no, he was never trapped, Gil. Never trapped. Tyler, what do you have to say for yourself? It was a championship game and I was, I was locked in.
27:21
[laughs] Championship game on what level? What was that? Yeah, that, [laughs] that was my, my local rec league in Dallas. Oh, okay. Quick, q- quick funny story.
27:30
We, we have, we did, we did play Dabo Swinney's team in the championship of that league a couple years ago and, and beat them pretty bad. [laughs] Was Dabo playing or was he just coaching? Yeah, no, he played. He played.
27:40
Is he good? Yeah. He's, he's pretty... I mean, especially for his age, he's, he's pretty good. Okay. All right. Is the team called Dabo's Team? Dabo's Team.
27:48
[laughs] No, but it is, it is him and, uh, a couple of his sons and then a couple former Clemson football players. So it was, it was pretty cool. Oh, wow. Okay.
27:55
[laughs] By the way, Tyler, I'm not even kidding, that was a heck of a move- Yeah, really. Yeah... that you were in there. Look at this. Thank you. Look at this. Look at this kid.
28:00
This kid on defense has no idea what's going on. No idea. [laughs] Oh, what is happening? All right, Tyler, uh, by the way, @TShoIndex, explain the Tyler Shoemaker index to, to everybody listening, first of all.
28:12
Yeah, I mean, at, at the most basic level, it's just an opponent and tempo adjusted, uh, rating system that I use for WNBA, men's and women's college basketball, and college football and NFL.
28:22
Uh, I wanna be able to answer the question, how many points would Team A be expected to score and allow against Team B? Uh, it's that, that simple. Well, let's start with the WNBA.
28:31
Obviously, uh, the Liberty and the Aces are through. Uh, they win the, uh, they sweep in their mini sweep of a two to nothing series respectively.
28:40
Uh, so they are on their way after, uh, Sabrina Ionescu scored 36, added nine assists for the Liberty last night. Kelsey Plum went off for the Aces, so they are through.
28:49
Tonight we have a couple games, the first of which involves Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever. Uh, they are trying to stave off elimination. Do you have a play in this game? I do. I'm, I'm on the Sun in this game.
29:01
I, I just... When, when I saw the playoff bracket come out, I said, "The Fever, this is a bad match-up for the Fever." The Sun are extremely physical. They love to play defense.
29:11
They love to, to talk trash, which I can appreciate.
29:13
[laughs] Uh, so I just, I don't think the, the Fever are quite veteran enough to be able to handle that type of, of physicality, both, both physically and the, the emotional toll that that kinda takes on you over the course of a game in a series of someone just kind of beating on you and letting you know about it.
29:29
Um, I, I think this is a bad match-up for the Fever. I'm on the Sun. Um, I took it minus, -6 A -7, so I, I, I like them to win pretty big. All right, six and a half right now in that game.
29:39
And then the, uh, the nightcap tonight, Mercury and the Lynx. The Lynx trying to, uh, sweep the Mercury. The Lynx favorite here. Uh, did you make a play pre-flop in this one? I did. I, I took over 160 in this game.
29:54
I think the Lynx can really light it up. They can really shoot the ball. Even, even their forwards can really shoot it.
30:00
Uh, and the Mercury are capable of lighting it up on the offensive end, but their defense is atrocious. So I, I like the over. The, the over went, uh, sailed by about 40 points in, in game one.
30:09
Uh, and most of the match-ups these teams have played this year, the, the total's gone over this, this 160 or 160 and a half mark. So I, I like the over in this game. All right.
30:18
Lynx favored by nine and a half to, uh, to put the Mercury away again. Tyler's pick, over 160 and a half. Uh, WNBA and, and baseball with the full stage tonight. Uh, college football weekend.
30:29
First of all, how's your college football season gone so far betting-wise? Pretty good. La- last weekend was, was pretty rough. I had, uh, some, some terrible beats. I had about three or four.
30:38
I, you know, I was on Baylor against, against Colorado. Ooh. Ooh. I've got Baylor plus two. [laughs] They're up seven with two seconds left and I lose the bet. [laughs] Yeah.
30:46
So, uh, you know, that, that, that pretty much summarized my, my college football weekend. But, but we are up on the season. We're up about a unit right now. I, in college football.
30:53
So it's, it's been kind of back and forth so far, but, uh, having a lot of fun doing it nonetheless.
30:58
Yeah, there was a lot of amazing finishes in college football this past week, none more so than that one where, again, the, the thing that gets lost for those who didn't see it, Colorado basically had a Hail Mary before the actual one that worked and was dropped at the two-yard line.
31:11
So I'm sure your emot- your emotions were up and down, uh, in that regard. What did you land on here this week? Yeah, so this week I like a couple of totals.
31:21
I'm on Houston, Iowa State under, uh, I like it really at 42 or, or better as one of my better bets, and then Boise and Washington State, um, I think the line on that last time I checked was 64 and a half.
31:34
I like the over there, uh, pretty, pretty significantly. All right. And, and explain to us the, the, your index. What is it based on? What are, what are the factors that you're putting into the whole goulash there?
31:47
Yeah, so I, um, efficiency metrics mostly, like, you know, points per play rather than just, you know, total, total yards or, or something like that that I think, uh, can
31:56
sometimes just produce a lot of noise when you're, when you're looking at that data. So I think the efficiency metrics are, are much more important and much more predictive. All right.
32:03
And would you say of all these sports, which would you say is your, is your sort of bread and butter? Which is the one that you do the best in?
32:11
Uh, yeah, prob- probably WNBA or, or women's college basketball, just because those are softer markets.
32:16
Um, you know, last, last college basketball season, when I would put out a women's play, I mean, within 10, 15 minutes, the line would move two or three points, you know, in, in the, in the favor of the play that I gave out.
32:27
So I, I really like those markets. They're much softer, obviously. Um, I've been doing really well in NFL so far. I think we're up about seven units in NFL so far this year as well. Yeah, I would imagine, I would...
32:36
N- not to, not to in any way lessen or minimize what you're saying about women's college basketball.
32:40
What I, I would imagine anyone with a platform betting women's college basketball with any degree of success would probably move that market some. But good on you- Yeah...
32:48
for, uh, for finding something and, and exploiting it. Uh, Tyler Shoemaker, everybody, @two- @TShoIndex on the old Twitter machine, and keep the, uh, keep the basketball moves coming, man. They look great.
32:59
[laughs] I appreciate it. Thank you. Tyler Shoemaker, VSiN contributor, always, uh, on vsin.com with his picks in all kinds of sports. Yeah.
33:08
Yeah, he's, uh, o- one of our great writer contributors on the website, is all over the place, like you said. Yeah.
33:13
WNBA thing is interesting because I will, you know, uh, I w- I was watching the Mets and the Phillies in the sports book yesterday at The Aria, and there is obviously not only the baseball games that mattered on the screens, but there was also the two WNBA games.
33:25
Mm-hmm. And it is hard not to get wrapped up in those games. Yeah. It, it, it... I mean, the Liberty, that game was very close t- you know, late.
33:32
The Aces went out to a big lead, then they got tight, and then before they, uh, ended up, uh, breaking it open.
33:37
But, um, I will, I, I think between the Phillies, Mets, and Caitlin Clark, I'm not sure what will get more of my attention tonight.
33:45
I think that also depends on what type of game Caitlin Clark's having and how close it is, right? That's it. 'Cause yeah, I mean, look, when she gets going, it's ki- it's kind of must-watch TV. It really is.
33:53
It's pretty incredible. Yeah. Mets, come on. Do something. Just win one of these, for God's sakes. And Diamondbacks, you too. My God.
34:02
This is, these b- these baseball bets down the stretch are so painful to watch when it's, there's so few games left. It's on your racket still. Just, just do what you have to.
34:10
Like the Royals yesterday, get, just eking out the one to nothing lead. Oh, man. While the Twins are getting rolled by the Marlins. You're like, "Hey, Royals, it's right there for you." It's right there.
34:19
"Just score a run. Come on."
34:20
I mean, it's amazing how tight these races are down the, down the final week here, and then, I mean, how, we've been bringing it up every day for, what, a month, two months now, the best record is just incredible.
34:30
The best record thing is amazing. Yeah. That one's amazing. In a year where no one will come close to even sniffing 100 wins, as the White Sox set records for futility on the other side.
34:41
We'll come back, some NFL betting stats. That's next on the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
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