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Sep 2, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | September 2, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | September 2, 2025
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44:51
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:10
There's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM Channel 158. It's Gil Alexander.
0:19
That right there is my little buddy, Kelly Bidlin, everybody. Heyo. How y'all doing? What's happening, party people? Ready to talk some sports and sports betting? Let's do it. Do it. On the show today,
0:29
our, what has become an annual tradition around here, a show within a show, our NFL Awards prediction show. Ah, yes. Are you MC-ing it or are we just, no, we're just doing it? No, we're just g- Are you?
0:40
We're gonna go through. Okay. We'll, we'll talk about each award market. We're gonna go through our official prediction. Yeah.
0:45
And then we will discuss the betting market as well, if there's other bets to make, other things to keep our eyes on. Other, other bets we almost would have picked- Yeah... um, would have made, but did not, yeah.
0:54
Uh, we'll do that. The NFL Awards prediction show coming up, uh, top of the hour, next hour.
0:58
Jeff Erickson, fantasy football Hall of Famer, Jeff Erickson from W- Rotowire, and of course, the, uh, the Prop Points version here at VSiN, that includes Nick Whelan, will talk, uh, fantasy with us.
1:08
He's als- also got some sports bets- Mm-hmm... uh, in the NFL to make. Uh, Tyler Shoemaker talking WNBA and college football with us. Greg Peterson on the Major League Baseball slate.
1:18
And, uh, how about we do the exercise we did last week, which is we're just gonna go through, a- and we'll try to do this rapidly. Mm-hmm.
1:24
Each and every game in NFL week number one, our thoughts from a straight up ATS survivor perspective. Yep. Bang, bang, bang. Total, millions, all that stuff. Millions. Yeah. That's right. That's what we'll do.
1:36
We'll do all of that. Um, we'll start, however, with college football last night, TCU 48, North Carolina 14, a drubbing- Yeah... a drubbing of the Heels in Bill Belichick's debut, college football debut. Um,
1:54
I w- I will not any, uh, add anything to the mainstream media take on this game other than the sports betting angle of this, which is to say, and this is, Kelly, this is the part where, uh, I, I don't mean to brag and I don't mean to boast 'cause that's not the point of this
2:08
breakfast toast. What it is is- [snorts]... that I think we have said on this show, I have said on this show hundreds of times over the years, uh, that no sport reveals itself, right?
2:18
No sport re- reveals itself in a game quicker than does a college football game, and I think last night was the perfect example of it. I wouldn't go through this had I not texted you in real time- Mm-hmm...
2:30
at every step of the way that I did this last night. Uh, I was on with, uh, on Will's podcast, Shoulda Bet More, on Sunday. He asked me did I have anything pre-flop in TCU and North Carolina.
2:40
I said I didn't, but give me a drive and a half. Well, it wasn't a drive and a half.
2:44
It was, uh, it ended up being, like, three drives on each side, and the game started out, last night for those who missed it, North Carolina gets the ball, and they just go right down the field, right?
2:53
Gio Lopez engineers a drive. It's seven to nothing, North Carolina. He's- It's looking great. He's smacking his own helmet. It's like they won the national championship, for God's sake. Vibes are high. Oh, man.
3:03
This is Bill Beli- Bill Belichick starting just a new era in college, college football, Gil. No, no one loved themselves more than those North Carolina kids in that moment. Well, then not so much. Yeah.
3:14
Um, what ended up happening after that is TCU took a 10 to seven lead, and by this point, Carolina had three consecutive three-and-outs. And, uh, then TCU had a, uh, had a play. They were up 10-7. They were driving.
3:31
You may remember. So 5:19 left in the second quarter, 10-7 TCU, and Hoover threw, uh, this, uh, this high pass, this short high pass that he had to get over the defender. He didn't. It was tipped, and it was picked.
3:42
So North Carolina had the ball now, down 10-7. They had staved off this, uh, this drive by, uh, TCU.
3:48
So they start in, deep in their own territory, down 10-7, and at that moment, I says to myself, "Ah, this looks like the perfect time," right? So TCU was minus five and a half.
3:59
There's the first in-game bet, TCU minus five and a half. Now it doesn't, here's the thing about this kind of stuff. It doesn't always work out this well, okay? Disclaimer. No, yeah.
4:08
It really, and it also doesn't work out as quickly as it did in this game, but this was just a series of unbelievable things, which is then, uh, what happens three plays later? Lopez pick six to Bud Clark, 17-7.
4:21
I immediately bet TCU minus 11 'cause r- I've seen all I need to at this point. This is domination by this point in the game. Um, three and out for North Carolina. TCU manages a field goal before the half.
4:33
It's 20 to seven, TCU at the half. At the half, I bet TCU, 'cause I know they're getting the ball, minus two and a half third quarter, and also TCU minus 15 and a half for the game.
4:43
First play from scrimmage second half, Gavoran Barnes, 75 yards to the house. 27-7, TCU. All right, let me hit the pause button real quick. Remember when we were talking about Castellanos yesterday- Yeah...
4:53
and I was like, "Did he look, like, better to you than you'd..." That was one of the slowest 75-yard touchdown runs I feel like I've ever seen. [laughs] That's just- I was like, "How is nobody catching this guy?"
5:01
No one got him. Immediately bet, and at this point, Todd is calli- Todd Wishnow is calling me a ‹azar, which is the, uh, which is his poor Hebrew pronunciation.
5:11
[laughs] That's his poor renounced Orthodox Jewish, uh, pronunciation of, of the word for pig in Hebrew. Okay. He says, "You're being a p..." He's laughing at me. I'm like, "I keep doing it."
5:20
TCU minus 21 and a half, another three and out for Carolina. TCU quickly matriculates. Trent Battle in from, from, uh, 28, 34 to seven. 8:30 left in the third quarter, and then I go back to the well one more time.
5:31
[laughs] Like, TCU minus 27 and a half. He's dying at this point. He goes, "Watch, you'll probably win this too," and I do. 7:08 left in the third quarter when I made the minus 27 and a half bet.
5:40
Lopez sacked by Jonathan Bax, fumbles. D- uh, Debion Deal scoop and score from 37 out. Touchdown, 41 to seven, TCU. At that point, they dealt. They're up 34.
5:49
They dealt to 34 and a half, and because I've lived long enough with in-game betting, I knew at that point to fold them. You gotta know when to hold them.
5:58
You gotta know when to fold them, and I was like, "Yeah, now squirrely things probably happen," and it worked out perfectly. TCU ends up winning 48 to 14. I say all of that again to say this.
6:08
Sports betting's a funny thing, Kelly Bidlin, because we can sit here and we can pontificate for hours on air. You can sit there and handicap golf for hours. Mm-hmm. I do for tennis- Yeah... on a daily basis.
6:22
It takes up our entire lives. And oftentimes sports betting plays this hilarious trick on you where
6:30
once in a while, maybe more than once in a while, I would argue in college football, a lot of times, you just plant your butt in front of a game.
6:37
You may not even know a player on either team, but you watch a few drives, you sit there, and it becomes a financial windfall for you. Mm-hmm. And that is the comedy of sports betting sometimes. Yeah. Yeah. Well said.
6:47
[laughs] Well said. The hours that you can spend on- It really is...
6:50
golf and tennis, and then, yeah, you're just, you're watching a game and s- I, I, I mean, you, you, like you said, you've said it for years, I think college football is by far the best example of this.
6:59
And spe- well, obviously early in the season in college football too, right? When there are question marks about teams, um, and you're getting pre-game lines and you see something develop in front of you, and boom.
7:08
And by develop, it means one team is clearly better than the other. It could mean that neither defense is gonna stop an offense just over the heck out of this game- Yep. Yep... over and over.
7:17
Um, there's so many things, but college football is very unique in that fashion. And so I just wanted to point that out. Yeah. I thought that's- I, I was gonna say-... my biggest takeaway.
7:24
Yeah, no, good point on the last one. I mean, honestly, I feel like I probably do it more with totals in college football- Yeah... than I end up doing it with sides. Yep.
7:30
'Cause it's usually [laughs] like, "Hey, this, this offense cannot move," or, right, "These defenses are not stopping anybody."
7:37
And that's what it, and that's what it was in terms of a, being a lopsided affair last night. It was very clear, uh, that TCU was the better football team. And, uh, listen, I mean,
7:47
people were writing jokes last night all over Twitter. There's, there's many a joke to be made and- Can I- We'll see how it plays out from here. Can I do the one-minute sports talk, uh, version of this? Please.
7:55
Absolutely. The- We like sports talk... I cannot believe I'm gonna be, I can't believe I'm gonna be on the defensive side of this.
8:02
Every, like I, I feel like there was a lot of national media that I heard about after this game and this morning of the, "Man, we are killing Belichick."
8:10
And I get it, it's game one, but, like, he ain't out there playing. Like, he's not out there throwing the ball or tackling. [laughs] Like, I, I get it.
8:19
I get he put himself in this position, and this is your responsibility as a head coach.
8:25
But man, I, for, for those of, those of us involved in sports radio journalism, it's, i- it's one game and there's players on the field. The k- guy's not out there doing everything. Well, I don't know.
8:35
I had, I had a couple thoughts. One, you know, one, the, uh, the easy joke here to make this morning would be what?
8:42
Uh, no one will be crapping on Lombardi more than Lombardi this morning, except for the fact that it was Lombardi, so Lombardi wouldn't. That's the first joke we could make, right? If, if you follow that.
8:50
[laughs] But the other, the real thing that I was, I, I'll, I'll push back a little on what you were saying- Uh-... on the Belichick thing.
8:56
I was bothered by the fact that when North Carolina went up seven-nothing, they're acting like they won the championship. Okay, great, you want kids en- enthus- or enthusiastic, great.
9:04
It's different era than it used to be. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Maybe I'm an old man. But then there was a play where Ship was completely covered perfectly by a TCU defender. He's look- he's desperately looking for the flag.
9:14
There was a, I think it was 17-7 and one of the Carolina D-backs was pumped that he made, like, a second down stop, and he's, like, raising his hand. I'm like, "If that's annoying me- Mm...
9:24
Bill Belichick is highly annoyed." Uh, you would think. And who, who knows, maybe that's something he addressed post-game. Yeah. After he got done with his balloon arch at the press conference. Did you see this?
9:34
The what? Oh, God, I'll, I'll- The balloon arch?... I have to pull the picture for you. You don't know what that is. Don't even know what that means. It's like, like, think of prom or, like, a ridiculous wedding.
9:42
Oh, a balloon arch. Like, they had the, like, step and repeat, like, behind him for the press conference- [laughs] And then there's, like, all these balloons around him. Oh.
9:49
L- like they just won a championship or something. They lost a game. It'll be fun to see how this goes. Again, sideshow like, uh, Deion and, uh, Colorado a couple years ago. We'll see this in college football.
10:00
Yeah, yeah. Um, tennis yesterday, two and one. Two and one in tennis. Hit on a straight set dog winner on Félix Auger-Aliassime. Straight set dog winner on Naomi Osaka over Coco Gauff.
10:10
Lost straight sets on the big dog yesterday, uh, which was Jaume Munar. So two and one for a nice little tidy day.
10:17
It was, I'll tell you, this day in the US Open yesterday, uh, Kelly, there were four men's matches and four women's matches.
10:23
Let's throw out the one women's match between Karolína Muchová, who beat Marta Kostyuk in three sets. The other seven matches were just run outs.
10:33
Uh, on the men's side, 12 to nothing in sets for the four winners versus the four losers. 73 to 25 in games. And on, in the other three women's matches, 36 to 12 in games, six to nothing in sets.
10:49
The average set of those seven matches out of the eight was 6-2 yesterday. Like, it was just a complete destruction of tennis. It was like everybody was double parked outside and had to get out of there.
10:59
So we're in the quarterfinals. Today I have two plays. Two plays as half the quarterfinals are being played today, and both of them involve giving a set and a half.
11:08
This morning, a little less than 90 minutes from now, Jessie Pegula giving a set and a half, meaning I have her winning in straight sets against Barbora Krejčíková. Um, that is in short plus money.
11:21
As is tonight, I'm taking Novak Djokovic giving a set and a half, meaning he has to win in four or fewer. He can give up a set at the most, plus 113 versus Taylor Fritz.
11:32
So Pegula this morning giving a set and a half, plus 108 versus Krejčíková. Djokovic tonight giving a set and a half, plus 113 versus Taylor Fritz.
11:41
Those are your two tennis plays from Flushing at the US Open, which has been a boon, as has the entire hard court season post-Wimbledon. Coming back with the NFL next.
11:50
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:07
Back on the numbers game, live from Circle Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin. Producer Number Nine, so much more than a producer.
12:15
Trying to order a gift card for Greg right now, but the, the Internet's having hiccups this week Uh, hold that thought for one second. Let's read some tweets.
12:23
Jacob Ellis at, at, uh, Wapesi Capital, he says, "The best part of a numbers game is when Gil asks Kelly to pronounce a tennis name and proceeding to ask Kelly if he's having a medical [laughs] emergency after attempting it.
12:33
Appreciate all the entertainment/insight you guys give on a daily basis." Medical event is what I call it. He says- Al, if you like Kelly embarrassing himself, College Football Guessing Lines is back- Oh... in one hour.
12:44
Wait a minute. I forgot I buried the headline. One hour? One hour from now. College Football Guessing Lines with Kelly Beitelon coming up. Which I, I thought was cruel.
12:55
I, I agreed to it yesterday, and as soon as I sat down to start researching it, Gil, I, I said, "Why did I agree to do this?" You know what's, what I love about it is it requires you to actually do research. It, it does.
13:05
Yeah. And this is... Uh, so I, I'm, I'm gonna admit, I, I, I didn't cheat. I didn't cheat, okay? But I used the VSiN College Football Betting Guide- Oh...
13:13
which everybody should employ because some of these teams I didn't know anything about. Mikey P, "Gil, don't do it. Have we not learned our lesson?" Talking about taking the Bengals and the Chargers- The Bean Dipers...
13:22
in week one. Um, "Hey, Kelly and Gil. What are the odds we find out the balloon arch was," he said, "Jennifer Hudson's idea?" He means, he means, uh [laughs] what's her name? Jordan, [laughs] Jordan Hudson.
13:32
Jordan Hudson, yeah. [laughs] Jennifer Hudson doesn't have anything to do with this, John. Uh, Xavier82 also saying, [laughs] "Betting the Giants, you people," with a meme from Tropic Thunder.
13:41
Uh, and then said, "And the numbers guys, can you ask Greg if he's a Dallas filet six or eight ounce guy?" Well, Greg Peterson joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guess Line.
13:51
You can follow him on Twitter at gunit_81. Uh, he is fond of a, uh, of a restaurant, an establishment called Texas Roadhouse. I have never been to Texas Roadhouse before. Greg- What? How many times...
14:03
How are you, and how many times do you go to Texas Roadhouse per week? Absolutely.
14:08
I try to make it at the very least once every two weeks, which for me is quite a bit because there aren't a lot of places I frequent quite like that. But you've never been to a Texas Roadhouse?
14:18
This is new information to me, and this is quite shocking. Well, how many of... I mean, are they, are they rampantly spread around the country, or is it just a Vegas thing? I think it's very local.
14:27
There's hundreds of them across the country. Yeah, they, they... I, I think- Never, never been... they're nationwide. Never been there. Where, where- They are nationwide...
14:34
Greg- I, I've seen them in Florida, and I've seen them in Nevada, so I'm gonna guess they're in Texas too. Yeah, I don't thi- I don't think a city- Yes... I don't think a city boy like myself- They're in-...
14:42
sees many Texas Roadhouses, I have to tell you. What, what, uh, what's your go-to order at the Texas Roadhouse? Oh, I am very much a twe- 11 to sometimes 16-ounce sirloin guy.
14:55
You get it with a good vegetable, sometimes broccoli, sometimes- [laughs]... a mixed vegetables. Hmm. Sometimes we roll the dice and we go with a potato, but- [laughs]... it's always a good time.
15:05
It's a great steak at a reasonable price, and it's something that keeps me satisfied, and it keeps me rolling with regards to these picks, so. Wow.
15:14
They do a good job of keeping me focused, and I appreciate their hard work and the way that they give me a good meal at a good price, so. That was fantastic. Uh.
15:23
Rolling the dice for the potato, first of all, always a gamble, the potato. Yeah. And he wanted to segue into the baseball picks with that, but now you're gonna- So... No, no, I mean, yeah- Yeah...
15:29
I'm gonna cut, I'm gonna cut it off. Yeah. Texas Roadhouse, uh, segment open for a sponsorship, by the way, just- Oh... just- That's what I was gonna say... just letting you know.
15:35
Very much Is there a better spokesperson? But, but, but Greg, wait, I do have one question because I've kinda got a rule when it comes to steaks. But the, uh... Do you cook s- do you make a steak at home?
15:43
Do you ever make a steak at home? Once in a while. Okay, okay. So that's where... I'm usually like I'll cook one up at home, throw it on the grill or, you know, broil, whatever, and the...
15:54
Or, man, I think you can make... If you get the right meat, you can make a great steak at home, or I'm going to a real fancy steakhouse.
15:59
So I haven't been, I haven't been to one of these spots and gotten a steak in a while, so okay. Hmm. It, we're gonna have to check it out, Gil.
16:04
Greg said, gave all, gave him all the energy to, uh, make his baseball plays. We don't have all-day baseball. We usually have Greg here on Wednesdays, uh, where it is all-day baseball, and we still have a full slate.
16:14
It's just all packed into the evening time. Uh, Greg, where are we going first today? How about if we do start with one of those earliest games because we've got the Reds going up against the Toronto Blue Jays.
16:26
Nick Lodolo and the Reds, a very slim favor right now, and I'm gonna be one to lay it.
16:30
Jose Berrios throughout his career has always had his struggles away from home rather than at home, though he's been much better on the road this far this season.
16:37
But I just really like the way that Nick Lodolo has cut down on the walks. His eight and a half strikeouts per nine innings are low, but 1.7 walks per nine innings.
16:46
And with this Blue Jays team, they just haven't been the same team offensively when they've been away from home rather than when they have been at home. We saw the Reds get to that bullpen yesterday.
16:55
They were actually leading going into the ninth inning, and then Emilio Pagán, because he's Emilio Pagán, gave up a pair of home runs. I very much saw that coming.
17:03
But Reds were able to rally against Brandon Little, who came up big for us. And I do think that the Reds, they just have a little bit more depth here.
17:10
I like the way that one through nine, they're moving the line in general. They don't have a single guy on the roster with 20-plus home runs right now, but they're just getting really good production out of everyone.
17:20
So like that eight and a half over, and with the Reds right around about minus 110, minus 115, I'm gonna lay that money line. Reds four out of a playoff position, four out of the, uh, third place wild card New York Mets.
17:32
Everybody, uh, likes to talk about the Reds' chances of getting in the playoffs. You know who's five games out? The San Francisco Giants, the sneaky freaky brothers sneaking in from the rear.
17:41
Um, by the way, Dave Ross, co-host of By the Books with Jensen Lewis, has, uh- Yeah, this is why we sent him out to Kentucky...
17:47
has texted, has texted us from Kentucky, and he says, and I quote here, uh, "They're in Tennessee too," talking about Texas Roadhouse, "but I haven't stopped yet," keyword being yet.
17:58
"Haven't stopped in yet," keyword being yet. And Kelly says, "Good reporting- [laughs]... from our field reporter." There you go. Dave Ross is gonna experience the sensation that is Texas Roadhouse.
18:06
All right, uh, what's next, Greg? How about if we go with a little bit of a later game? It's the San Francisco Giants against Colorado Rockies, because you just mentioned it.
18:14
The Giants, they are starting to surge right now. We're seeing that run line price where you're gonna be laying some juice, minus 140, minus 145.
18:23
In my opinion, you could still lay it and get a little bit of value, but I'd rather reduce it and go more on a minus 110, minus 115 basis.
18:31
And I'll be taking a look at the over, because with Kyle Freeland, he just gives up contact upon contact. Only six strike outs per nine innings.
18:38
And for the Giants, they've been much better with their hitting away from home rather than them. Makes a lot of sense because Oracle Park, man, is just a very much pitcher's ballpark to say the least.
18:48
And for the Giants and the c- and the Rockies yesterday, they had a combined 24 hits, but just a lot of men stranded on base. I think some of those men come home today.
18:58
Rafael Devers is finally starting to heat up- Yes... for the Giants.
19:01
And for the Giants, if you look overall for the season, they're number two in terms of bullpen ERA, but they're not quite the same bullpen as they were towards beginning part of the season.
19:09
You trade away the likes of Tyler Rogers, Camilo Doval, Eric Miller's on the injured list, so little bit beat up there. And Logan Webb throughout his career, 2.78 home ERA compared to a 3.98 ERA on the road.
19:21
Does take a little bit of a drop off away from home, so be able to get that total at 10 and a half, I like that over. It, it's so, baseball's so interesting because y- you call it. So no Camilo Doval, he's a Yankee.
19:31
Tyler Rogers is a Met. Uh, Mike Yastrzemski is a Royal. Uh, Late Night Lamont left before the trade deadline.
19:39
Again, they, uh, they released Late Night Lamont Wade, and yet they've never played better baseball all year than they are right now.
19:45
Um, bullpens, you just mentioned, which I think is a fascinating thing heading into the postseason. Give me the Greg Peterson, in no particular order, best three or four bullpens in baseball right now.
19:56
What would you say? San Diego Padres are number one. I feel like that's very obvious.
20:01
They're number one in terms of ERA, and that's without Mason Miller for much of the season, who has really been able to blossom for this team. So I really like the way that they're performing.
20:10
If they can get in, the Cleveland Guardians have a really good bullpen. Even without Emmanuel Clase, these guys have been really good. Erik Zabowski, Kate Smith, they've all been able to step up.
20:20
And when they're rocking and rolling, the Brewers have been amazing with their bullpen, but they need Trevor Megill to get healthy. Without Trevor Megill, we have noticed that they have slipped up quite a bit.
20:29
We saw yesterday on full display against the Philadelphia Phillies, and Jacob Mierzewski just not giving them a lot of innings has been hurting them as well. Those are three bullpens, though, that I really do like.
20:39
Again, with the Brewers, the big caveat there, you need to get Trevor Megill healthy because he's been their ninth inning guy, and he's currently on the injured list.
20:46
Yeah, I think if, for folks making futures bets, handicapping the bullpens heading into a postseason is about as, as, uh, important a category you can look at. I would add Astros, Mets, even the Yankees.
20:59
I know people don't think the Yankees bullpen is good. Astros need to get healthy with their bullpen too, though. Yes, they do.
21:04
D- and the Devin Williams thing has, has clouded what otherwise would be a pretty good Yankees- Mm-hmm... bullpen picture. All right, what's next today? What if we do go with a game out there in the American League?
21:16
Because man, you just mentioned it, the Devin Williams deal, it has not been working out really for the New York Yankees, and I am in on the Houston Astros.
21:23
You're able to get Framber Valdez and company right around about even money against the Yankees, and Max Fried has given up four plus runs in six out of his last eight starts.
21:31
Now, for Framber Valdez, he's given up four plus runs in four out of his last five games. Now, this is a total that is climbing up from a seven and a half to an eight.
21:40
If you saw the seven and a half, I do like that over, but Valdez been very different home to road. Overall for the season, about a 3.16 ERA. Only giving up a half a home run per nine innings.
21:50
But at home, 180 ERA, 0.4 home runs per nine innings. He has been magnificent when he has been in Houston. For the Yankees, there's still a little bit of a hit or miss sort of mentality with regards to this lineup.
22:03
Obviously, Aaron Judge is gonna move the line and get on base. But with this Astros team, I do feel like they find a way, and getting back Yordan Alvarez, that is massive for them as well.
22:11
So give me that seven and a half over, and the Astros on the money line. All right, we will do just that. Greg Peterson, everybody, at, uh, gunit_81. Everything good with the dating life before we let you go?
22:22
Everything good? Everything is great, my friend. Things are going very, very well. Mr. Romance. Volume shooter, but now Mr. Romance, right? Not, not volume shooting currently, correct?
22:34
Not volume shooting currently, but always prepared to take some shots. [laughs] Greg Peterson. Thank you, Greg, appreciate it. A show within a show, NFL awards next on a Numbers Game with VSiN.
22:45
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:57
Don't forget to check out the Sharp Plays, unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting information, and alerts directly from the pros.
23:05
We invite you to take a look, sharpplays.com. Skill Alexander, Kelly Bidlin alongside.
23:12
Uh, this gentleman is kind enough to join us this morning, and when I say this gentleman, he is, uh, one who's got himself quite the pedigree in our little corner of the world.
23:20
He's a founder of RotoWire, which, uh, he was part of back in 1994. And for, what is it, over a decade ago now, in 2014, the Fantasy Football Writers Association named him as a Hall of Famer.
23:33
And VSiN's own- That's right... by the way, when he does the, the version of Prop Points with Nick Whelan, VSiN's own Jeff Erickson joining us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. Jeff, good morning. Good morning.
23:42
How we doing, guys? Doing very well. Does, does that, uh, intro ever get old for you, all those accolades being bestowed upon you? No, it doesn't. It doesn't. It's pretty cool. Uh, it's nice.
23:51
Uh, I like to joke that I'm a recovering attorney. I had just graduated law school when we launched the company, never practiced, started doing this full time pretty quickly thereafter, so doesn't get old at all.
24:01
What was the seed for RotoWire? How did that pop up in your head? Uh, it, my, my buddy Peter Shankman came up with the idea. He, he was a journalism, uh, graduate over at Northwestern.
24:11
We went to school together, and he was already working at, uh, for the Wall Street Journal. Saw how the internet was really popping up, really wanted to start up a website.
24:18
Uh, and he, he first thought about weddings and then decided to, you know, say, "Hey," like, "Hey-" We got our fantasy baseball league.
24:24
We're trying to get information out of market, but we can't find it unless it's, like, an elite star, you know, you see on SportsCenter. But every newspaper is online.
24:32
So let's just build a database and do player analysis on a fantasy basis there of all the players that are out, who's starting, all that good stuff.
24:40
And we started from baseball, added football that same year, and kind of just took off from there.
24:44
It's a searchable database, and we came up with rankings, projections, cheat sheets, all that, and kind of added stuff over the course of the years. It's so great. Uh, we had a gentleman who, uh, founded OurLads.
24:55
I asked him, OurLads nowhere near the- the scope of- of Rotoworld, but I asked him, I said, "What do you think I use OurLads? The only thing I use, uh," he- he goes, "Oh, NFL depth charts." I was like, "Exactly right."
25:04
Of course. Uh, if I ask you about Rotoworld, if I say to you, "What do you think I use Rotoworld for?" what would pop up in your head? It probably starts with just the- the player news.
25:13
And the thing is, w- we've been around so long that we're providing player news feeds to a lot of different companies as well. Like, you go to ESPN's player page, see the fantasy note, that's us. Same thing with CBS.
25:23
Same thing with a lot of different companies. So we've been doing all this business to business over the years. Uh, but it- it's- it's fantasy analysis. Yeah.
25:29
Um, and it's our- our cheat sheets, and, you know, i- it's- it's really kind of grown over the years. And now it's podcasts, it's media, it's SiriusXM. Yeah. Uh, it's all this good stuff. Good for you.
25:38
And I think the other thing we do on top of it, and just to make...
25:41
not to make this a complete walking ad for Rotoworld here, but our- our customer service folks are just amazing, and I think that's one of the things that gives us an edge over everybody else.
25:48
Baseball lineups, bullpens, I- I use it for that, uh, just tremendously. It's so great. Okay. About fantasy. I no longer play fantasy football. You're obviously immersed in it.
25:58
Folks are, if they haven't dra- had their drafts yet, they're about to.
26:02
So just broadly, can you tell us the- the Jeff Erickson players that you have, o- you know, overvalued and the ones that you think are undervalued heading into the draft? Okay, so there's a...
26:14
I- I've been jumping on some of the Helium trains, like, uh, Treveyon Henderson, I've been trying to get, get ahold of that as well when he- even though he's been rising in cost.
26:23
Same thing holds true with Emeka Egbuka and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as well. I- I think that's another one where I- I've ended up getting a lot more of them, even though the price is rising on those guys.
26:31
Uh, I've been fading Aaron Jones. I've been fading Puka Nacua because of health and because of Stafford's health. Uh, so there's a couple noteworthy risers and fallers. Oh, that's interesting. Fading Puka Nacua, our guy.
26:42
By the way, I was mentioning earlier, a buddy of mine, uh, in DC, uh, texted me yesterday. He goes, "Hey, Gil, I'm, uh, I think I'm gonna have the fifth pick.
26:48
I'm probably gonna have a choice between Justin Jefferson and, uh, CeeDee Lamb tomorrow. Who do you think should I, I should take?" I told him CeeDee Lamb. Is that the correct answer?
26:56
I don't think there's a wrong answer there. Okay.
26:58
Uh, yeah, I- I think, I go Lamb slightly over Jefferson as well because of the hamstring injury for Jefferson in training camp, because he's got essentially a rookie quarterback in J.J.
27:07
McCarthy making his first NFL start on S- on, uh, Monday night there. I- I think that makes it a little trickier just early on in the season. Uh, that said, I mean, Jefferson got it done with Nick Mullens.
27:18
He can probably get it done with anybody else. All right, now the- Yeah, he's good. He's good at football. [laughs] He's good at football. Okay.
27:23
The- the beauty of having a fantasy guy on also is it is so correlated with NFL props or props in any sport. Right. Um, you have a couple season-long props that you like. Yeah.
27:35
Uh, we talked about this on training camp, uh, with, uh, Kelly and Nick and I, or, uh, way during- Right... back- back during the baseball All-Star break.
27:41
Isaiah Pacheco, over four and a half rushing touchdowns on the season. Really love that one there. I- I think that that...
27:46
It was over, it unfortunately, it got to minus 150 at Caesars last time I checked, but it was hard to find that prop.
27:52
Uh, we- we have a tool that kind of scrapes a- a lot of different books, uh, and sees what we can find in terms of rushing touchdown props, but Kareem Hunt's washed.
28:00
I- I- I think Pacheco, as long as he's fully healthy, will easily cover that prop. So I- I like that one quite a bit. Okay. Uh, let's go to week one in the National Football League.
28:09
Couple props in week one games that you like. Uh, David Njoku is my- my favorite one there, over 48 and a half receiving yards.
28:16
You can even find it 46 and a half with a slightly higher price if you wanna go that route as well.
28:21
Uh, if you look at what he did last year against the Bengals, 10 for 76, eight for 66 in the two games, despite just a dumpster fire at quarterback.
28:28
Now he has Joe Flacco, who he had over 800 receiving yards with two years ago.
28:33
Not that Flacco is gonna be the same quarterback necessarily, but I think he'll be good enough, competent enough, that he should be able to s- exploit that.
28:39
And the Bengals, they, I- I don't see them changing materially enough to be able to cover tight ends any better than they have for the last five years, and they certainly didn't improve over this past off-season though.
28:49
So I- I really like the Nj- Njoku props for week one. By the way, I should probably ask you, which sport do you, like, get the most excited about before the season starts? Is it the NFL? It's baseball, but it's close.
29:00
It, yeah. Uh, I- I play in about 20 leagues for each sport. [laughs] Oh, my God. Um, and I just, I love the run-up every year. I, you know, it's great when you, "Hey, jump in another draft?" Sure, why not?
29:08
Oh, now, Tues- it's Tuesday. I have to re- I have to do all my free agent, uh, lineups here for, uh, week one now. Now I have to set my lineups later in the week. The- the management gets a little tougher.
29:16
Baseball's harder to do because there's so many more players and there's, uh, just so many more games. But, uh, I have a pretty much an equal love for the two sports, and I still play in a hoops league.
29:25
I got a hockey league. I've had a fantasy golf league for over 25 years now. I- I- I love it all. Oh, my goodness. Love it. Wait, Jeff, I got a question for you.
29:33
What if there was someone, I- I feel like this is not anybody, but if there was someone just starting to play fantasy, there's so many different leagues that you can play and different styles that you can play in now, is there one that you've kind of grown- grown more fond of over the years, like a best ball or something?
29:48
So I just like a managed fantasy football league. You know, do a, a PPR league.
29:52
Uh, you know, I personally would love to play auction leagues and Superflex and all the permutations that you can do, but if for someone who's just starting, you know, do a one-quarterback PPR league.
30:02
You- you have, like, five or six man benches. Ease into it there. Play in ESPN or Yahoo or what- whatever your favorite platform league is. Uh, and just jo- you know, wade in that way there.
30:11
Get- get to know the player pool. That's the thing about fantasy, and that's why, like, Sunday Ticket exists. It's, like, why Red Zone exists.
30:18
It's- it's not just for the bettors, but it's, uh, definitely for the fantasy players. They're trying to follow their players out of market. It's so easy to do now.
30:24
Uh, the- the barrier to entry for football is so easy, and that's why it's king. It's one of the, one of the many reasons why it's king, but it, everybody can play a fantasy league. It's- it's really easy to do.
30:34
I've, I've asked this of Todd Wright before, who we've had, uh, talking fantasy with us. Uh, if someone makes you a, an offensive trade offer, Jeff, what's the proper etiquette? A- Oh...
30:44
uh, you, uh, tell him to, uh, you know, go to where the, you know, the sun don't shine. Uh- This is always me, by the way, sending them...
30:51
uh, two, you send him an equally offensive trade offer back, or three, you ignore it. Send an email saying, "Hey, Todd, you s- someone got ahold of your computer and was sending trade offers to me."
31:02
No, uh, you don't do that. [laughs] But, uh, I, I, I think it depends on who's doing it to you. Sometimes people earnestly think that they're offering you something fair.
31:10
There's other people that, "Oh, I never send my best offer the first time." I don't have time for that, so I'll just, I'll just reject and move on.
31:17
I won't even give them a, an explanation for it if it's really truly offensive.
31:21
But if I think they're making a good faith effort and they just really just get the player market wrong, I'll, I'll, I'll explain why I don't think it's a good offer, or I'll explain if I think there's a deal to be made too.
31:30
I mean, you gotta look and see at my roster, his roster, what do our needs are.
31:35
Um, if, if there's a deal to be made and you're in the interest of doing a deal, then come back and, you know, counter offer with something that you think is something you're willing to do.
31:43
If it doesn't work, well, okay, you moved on. But, uh, I, I really think it does depend. Um, if it's someone that is notorious for sending bad trade offers, yeah, I'm gonna be pretty snarky. [laughs] Okay.
31:53
Uh, Drake May, you have a prop on Drake May this week. Yeah. I, I like, uh, Drake May's, uh, over on the passing yardage this week, over 214 and a half passing yards.
32:03
You look at what he did down the stretch, he got over that number I think four out of six weeks, and he's doing it against a Raiders secondary that I, I, I think is gonna have some, uh, is gonna be really rough this year.
32:12
I, I, I look at the, their, their corners. I really don't think that they're gonna be all that fantastic. I know Diggs is working his way back from an injury.
32:20
The receiving corps for the New England is, you know, unse- uncertain yet. You know, we, we think they've improved. We think Kyle Williams is gonna be an improvement.
32:27
I know Pop Douglas has driven s- uh, you know, drawn some raves in the, in training camp in the preseason. I think it's enough to put him over the edge here. I, I, I think he, he surpasses that in week one.
32:37
I, I like this matchup against the Raiders, and I think that, uh, over the course of the season you're gonna see those passing props get higher for Drake May. All right. And Jeff, let's spread our wings.
32:45
You have a total as well this week in the NFL. Yeah. Um, I, I, I really think there's, there's a lot of unders that I like, but the one I'm gonna go with here is Pittsburgh and the Jets. It opened at 39 and a half.
32:56
Unfortunately can't get that anymore, but I still see it at 38 and a half in a lot of places. Aaron Rogers didn't play a preseason snap. Justin Fields looked really awful.
33:03
They have one good receiver worth talking about, maybe a rookie tight end, Mason Taylor, that'll be good someday. Uh, I, I think it'll be pretty rough.
33:10
I think this'll be one of those, you know, week one really tough look matchups there. I, I think this could be, like, a 20 to 17 game, maybe even a 17-13 sort of game. All right.
33:20
Jeff, I need a five-second answer for those heading into their fantasy drafts, back to fantasy. The optimal first three rounds, you should have what positions optimally? Two receivers, one running back.
33:30
Two stud receivers, one stud running back. Jeff Erickson, @Jeff_Erickson on Twitter. Jeff, a pleasure. Thank you so much. Anytime. Looking forward to it, guys.
33:40
On the other side, Kelly Bidlack, college football guessing lines. Next on the Numbers Game.
33:45
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34:29
And the reason that Kelly is not sitting next to me is because, uh, this young lady is kind enough to, uh, hang out with us well before her show starts, which is a real, it's kind of an imposition.
34:39
90 minutes before Money Moves begins, 2:00 PM Eastern, 11:00 AM every day here on the network. Weekdays, I should say, on the network. Not every day. Uh, with JVT and Stormy Monetonni in studio. How you doing? I'm great.
34:51
I mean, I figure JVT does it all the time. He comes in, he does the extra work. I gotta pull my weight, you know? We, we do miss you.
34:57
Kelly and I miss you because we got to, we got to see you every day, and now with an hour in between with John Hanson and Prop Points, which we love, by the way. John Hanson has Adam Schefter on today. Ooh. Yes. Big get.
35:07
Let's go. Yeah. And then you come on, so we don't get to see you anymore, so hello. So then great, I'm a letdown. Thanks for that. Yeah, that's not- Thanks for that, Gale. Geez. That's not what I meant.
35:16
[laughs] No, you're fine. But I, sorry it came out that way. All right, let me ask you the same question I just asked of, uh, Tyler Shoemaker. You saw Bill Belichick, Michael, our buddy Michael Lombardi- Yeah...
35:26
uh, and UNC last night. Do you watch that game? 'Cause you are an astute college football observer.
35:31
Do you watch that game and go, "Okay, let's not overreact," or do you watch that and say from a betting perspective, "Oh yeah, we should over, we should react properly to what we saw last night"? I think it's twofold.
35:42
I think you can react properly in the short term, but in the long term you need to give a little bit of runway.
35:49
You have to remember with this UNC program, they had 70 new pieces that came in, half of which entered in spring ball, including their quarterback, by the way, who transferred in from South Alabama.
36:00
And it's weird that things actually got better at the quarterback position once he got taken out, but that's neither here nor there. Mm-hmm.
36:05
But they had so much new that in the early going it makes sense that- It wasn't great. Did I think it was gonna be that bad? Absolutely not, especially defensively. What do you think when you think Bill Belichick?
36:18
You think fundamental defense, all those things. You think halftime adjustments. You think the Middle Eight, which I know we're gonna talk about later on. The Middle Eight.
36:27
But how much did we have Michael Lombardi on the program talking about Bill Belichick and the Middle Eight, and the final four minutes of the first half, and the first four minutes of the second half, and that was an epic disaster last night.
36:37
Yeah. But those are things you imagine over the course of a long season should start to clean themselves up a bit, especially considering, like, what a manageable schedule they do have.
36:46
It's not bear after bear after bear every week, and I think that he should get those guys coached up at least fundamentally better as the season goes on. Do you agree with me?
36:52
Now, you are on, you're on the sideline for which game this weekend? I'll be at Arizona State, Mississippi State, so headed out to Stark Vegas. Wow. Yeah, first-timer. I've never been there before.
37:01
Never been to Starkville before? No, and there's a lot of hope out there the, uh, to start the season with Jeff Lebby- [laughs]...
37:06
in year two, so the cowbells will be cowbelling, and I'm mentally [laughs] preparing for that.
37:10
Uh, Falica used to say this when he was on game day about, uh, I think it was Chris Fowler's line, to get to these college football towns, I can't remember the line, but it was like, two airplanes and a bus. Yeah.
37:20
Is that kind of your life? It's planes, trains, and automobiles. Yeah. All that, yes. So we, uh, to get there, it's not too bad this time around.
37:27
I'm going to Atlanta and then flying into the small little airport that they have. It's about 40 minutes away.
37:33
But to get home, I have to drive two and a half hours to Memphis and then go Memphis to, I think, Dallas to here. So it's a, it's a whole thing. But you, but you love this life. Yes.
37:43
I, I get a lot of work done on the planes. [laughs] Okay. So [laughs] there's that. I have a lot of time to myself for my thoughts to really get ready for the week.
37:50
Are you allowed to talk about the game you're doing the sideline for? Yeah. Do you have thoughts on that game?
37:54
Um, I do think the line move already right off the hop is pretty interesting, that ASU opened around nine and a half and now they're down to seven.
38:01
I even saw a six and a half there against Mississippi State, which just goes to the point that I mentioned about Mississippi State still having some hope right now. They were a brutal watch last year. Yeah.
38:11
Two-win team, and who knew what they were gonna really field this season? But they brought in a lot of new pieces. They're feeling pretty confident.
38:21
I really like their running back Fluff Bothwell, which I was, like, reading more about him and what a name, first and foremost, apparently.
38:27
[laughs] Apparently he was, like, an 11-pound baby that looked like he was a three-month-old out the womb. Gotta name him Fluff. So there, he doesn't have fluff anymore, though. The- Yeah...
38:35
body fat percentage, very little. But there's a lot of expectations, I think, that Mississippi State is gonna take a positive step forward.
38:41
And then you have ASU that last year was predicted dead last in the Big 12, ends up going on this incredible run.
38:47
They've got this great quarterback in Sam Levitt who's getting, like, Heisman talk if they end up running- Yeah...
38:52
the table in the Big 12, and then they fell a little bit flat against NAU in week one, so how do they rebound from that? All of the penalties, you would think.
39:00
I know week one there are some kinks you need to work out, but to be at home and have all the pre-snap penalties that you had, and false starts, and stuff, like, that, that just shouldn't happen.
39:08
And I know Sam Levitt specifically was really disappointed in how he performed that game. So now on the road in a tough SEC environment, how does he perform then? I said this to you, uh, off air.
39:18
I'll say it to you on air before we move to the NFL.
39:21
Uh, Dave Fleming, who, uh, does some of the games where you, uh, do sidelines for, uh, through back channels, through Joe Pita, uh, he just, he's, he loves working with you, said you're the greatest in the world.
39:32
He just- Aw... he cannot speak high, more highly of you. That's, that's so nice to hear. Yeah. I love Dave. He is, like, the consummate professional. He's so talented.
39:39
For anyone who doesn't know Dave Fleming, he- Yeah... also calls play-by-play for the San Francisco Giants and a, a number of sports. He does the world feed for the freaking World Series. He's unbelievable.
39:47
And so to have him as a partner and, like, to soak in just anything I can learn from him has been great. But for him to like me is good. [laughs] He stuck with me.
39:55
He stuck with me 16 weeks a year, [laughs] so that's good. No, no, he's, he, he was sincere from, from what I was told. Super sincere about that, of course. Uh, okay, to the NFL, do you enter these contests at Circa?
40:05
Oh, yeah. Let's go. You, you... Oh, of course you do. Yeah. 'Cause you were, uh, what am I talking about? You were, like, the star of the- [laughs]... of the Survivor documentary. Uh, how many millions entries do you do?
40:15
How many Survivor entries do you do? So I just did one millions this year, and then my dad and I are partners for two Survivor, which is- Okay... super fun. And then- How does that go? It's a, it's interesting. Really?
40:27
Because he, just like the cowbells are cowbelling, my dad be dadding, you know? Yeah. [laughs] And so he, he thinks he needs final say in X, Y, and Z, and I'm like, "But I do this for a living."
40:37
He's like, "Yeah, but we were out week three last year, but I blame you," and so it's whole thing. Oh, wow. But JVT and I are also doing one together. Okay.
40:44
Um, oh, and I guess we're doing a millions too, so I'll have two millions and three Survivor in, in total with everything that we're doing. Oh, okay, gotcha. So one, it, I get it. Your one is your, one is your millions.
40:54
Yes. One with JVT is a millions. Yes. One is your Survivor, one with your dad is a Survivor. Correct. Okay. Yes.
41:00
So we're doing, like, a t- a show one, and then I have my personal one that my father and I do it every year. Okay. So in Survivor, what are you thinking at this point?
41:09
I am being pulled toward the Cardinals, and I know it's a, a road game and people don't like doing that. I don't like doing that. But I...
41:18
They don't, but I, I have for years been Cardinals early, not late type of a vibe. Oh, that's interesting. Um, well, for, for a long time, the Kyler Murray health factor was a big discussion topic, right?
41:31
Like, he's healthy and he's running around, he's doing all these unbelievable things early in the season, and then it kind of falls off as he gets dinged up. He's a smaller quarterback, all those things.
41:38
But then even last year when that wasn't the case, the numbers still in the back half of the season were nowhere near what they were early on.
41:45
And so my thought process is I, I think the Cardinals at the start of the season should be pretty decent. I, I like what Jonathan Gannon is doing with that defense. I think Kyler's healthy. He's ready to go.
41:56
They've got some nice weapons over there against a Saints team that I have zero [laughs] faith in. Yeah.
42:00
And I bet them to be the lowest scoring team in the NFL this year, and my thought process really is if, if Spencer Rattler beats me, then I deserve to lose. But- [laughs]...
42:10
I know JVT really, really likes the Broncos, and he's gonna fight for that for our entry. My dad actually loves the idea of taking the Eagles now, and he's like, "Okay, well, if we lose we can just buy back in."
42:20
[laughs] Who wants to lose on Thursday night week one, Rich? The Fezzik strategy. Come on. He's employed the Fezzik strategy. Yeah. It's so, so we'll see, um, where- It's sweet imitation of your dad, by the way...
42:29
where we, how, how, he, right. [laughs] Yeah. Yeah. Where have, uh... Yeah, I'm like, "Thanks, Dad. You're not gonna be here, so I'm gonna have to rebuy in for us." [laughs] Awesome. But, uh, I mean, how have you...
42:37
I know you're very high on the Cardinals, so what do you think about them week one? I'm not, I mean, I'm high on them, but I... So I have six survivors. Six survivor entries, which is what I did last year.
42:45
Didn't help me, by the way. Um, I think I'm going, I'm either going three and three, or I'm going two, two, and two. Yeah. So it's either gonna be three Broncos, three Bengals. Mm. Don't, don't judge me.
42:54
Do you trust 'em? Of course not. [laughs] Um, or two, two, and two, with the Cardinals being- Okay... part of that, too.
43:01
JVT and I talked about the Bengals that, um, he made a good point to me yesterday about, you know how LSU-Clemson this past week, Brian Kelly was just hammering home how much they have invested in that week one game.
43:12
They've got paws on the weight bags and all of this different stuff, and it paid off for them, and the Bengals have kind of instituted a similar strategy on they're playing guys in the preseason.
43:20
Winning week one is very important because we've been behind early on in the season year after year after year.
43:26
So maybe the Bengals actually would be [laughs] a smarter choice this year, since they've invested so much in it. It, it feels contrarian-ish- Mm-hmm... this, this year.
43:33
Your favorite, um, again, your favorite spread, your favorite bet against the spread week one. Oof. Putting you on the spot. Oh, gosh. I think it's the Cardinals. [laughs] Cardinals. Minus six and...
43:43
That's so bad, but by- Right... minus six and a half is the only bet that I have made so far. Okay. Yeah. There you go. Uh, what can we expect on Money Moves today, in about, in about an hour plus?
43:51
Um, lots of college football. We're gonna look at the marquee games of the week.
43:55
I know it's early for letdowns and lookaheads, but there are already a couple interesting sandwich spots, like LSU, just as we just spoke about, have this huge win, and then after this week they've got Florida on the horizon.
44:07
So could this week, having a 38 and a half point spread maybe be a little too much? We'll get into that and a, a handful of different fun stuff. Nice. Lots of college football and NFL, as you would expect.
44:16
As one would expect.
44:17
And hopefully, and I don't know how we're gonna do this, because the way the Megapod timing is this year, it's kind of right when Money Moves starts, but hopefully we can finagle a week where somehow you can get on and we can be flexible- Yeah...
44:28
with the time. Because the Megapod audience, like Dave Fleming, really accepted you, and that's a pretty hard audience to please. Yes. They were like, "We love Stormy on the show, so we'll, we'll get you back on."
44:39
Oh, ma- I would love to come on. That'd be great. Let's do it. Megapod, you finally reached the big time, Stormy. Kidding, joking. Good luck with ESPN this weekend, and all weeks.
44:47
Stormy, with Money Moves, a little over an hour from now. Coming back.
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