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Sep 2, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 2, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 2, 2026
00:00
38:11
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Transcript
0:00
I was tripping on the break 'cause I said this thing about McDonald's updating their signs when I was a kid, and I felt like s- when I was saying that, I was like, "I, I'm a thousand years old. I remember that."
0:07
So I actually looked at this. McDonald's used to update their numbers on their roadside signs to show a running tally of total hamburgers sold, starting at one million in 1955 and then climbing over the decades.
0:19
They hit 20 billion in 1976, 50 billion in 1984, 80 billion in 1990.
0:27
The running count stopped and froze at over 99 billion around '93 or '94, and then they had an annual convention, the annual McDonald's convention in 1994, and they decided to replace the updating digits with the static text that read, "Billions and billions served."
0:41
There you go. That's what it actually says now? It says, "Billions and billions served." Billions and billions? Dude, I remember it. Like, there was one on, uh, Tim Murray will may, may know this.
0:49
Tim Murray joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. He is- McDonald's locations in Washington, DC... uh, that's exactly- Let's go... what's gonna happen.
0:54
There is a McDonald's- [laughs] Tim, Tim, you know East West Highway between Bethesda and Silver Spring, there's a McDonald's there. Yeah. Oh, yeah. That's the one- Mm-hmm...
1:00
we used to pass, it w- would always go with like 35 billion, 40 billion. It w- used [laughs] used to update.
1:06
Tim, by the way, the host of, uh, Vsan Primetime, the co-host of Vsan Primetime, and listen, it's all about college football with Timmy 'cause he's got the, uh, Vsan College Football Tailgate Show and the Vsan College Football Betting Podcast.
1:16
Follow him on Twitter @1TimMurray. You remember that one, huh? East West Highway. I do. Yeah, you were, you were, you were closer to the city than I was. I was in Rockville, so I was a little bit further back.
1:26
I remember the day that Cabin John Mall switched from Roy Rogers to McDonald's. Oh. That was a sad day. I, I, I, was a sad day. Bro. I was a big fan of the, uh, the Roy Rogers burger- Double R Bar burger, man...
1:38
you get a couple drum, drumsticks, and then you go to the fixin' bar and just load up on pickles. See- Huh... Ma- Matty Humans doesn't know anything about Roy Rogers. Huh. He doesn't know about that. He probably does.
1:47
That... Uh, does he? It's been- The gold rush I've, I've, I've never been in one... when I started working at Frederick, Gil, uh- Oh, Frederick... a couple years, uh, I guess 15, 16 years ago, they still had Roy Rogers.
1:56
That was, that was a big day when I- Oh... started working for the Frederick Keys and I could go to Roy Rogers for lunch. So there, there are apparently a few Roy Rogers still around.
2:04
Didn't we just look this up recently? Oh, yeah. Yeah, it was, uh, the Double R Burger. Oh, yeah. Oh, it was so good. All right, Tim, my, my... Again, I've asked this of a- all college football folks.
2:12
You learn anything from week zero? Anything? Yeah, a little, a little bit. Um, you know, UNC's not as bad as we thought. Uh, I think defensively that they're a capable bunch.
2:22
I think people overlooked that they had pretty good defense last year. They just enjoyed ragging on them. Certainly I did as well. But, uh, the defense is, is capable.
2:31
Schedule's really challenging, but I think UNC probably a bowl team, you know, in that discussion as opposed to, you know, where their win total was.
2:40
Um, you know, Memphis, you don't wanna try to overreact too much, but I think they're a legitimate contender for the bid to the College Football Playoff from the G6.
2:49
And, you know, I'm gonna monitor North Dakota State here. I was a little bit lower on them. Still m- a little bit hesitant to jump full in to the deep end here on North Dakota State, but they look the part.
3:02
Uh, sh- certainly have the size, but they still have to go on the road to the perceived top four teams in the Mountain West. But I'm not gonna take too much away. Look, USC's got studs, uh, uh, as freshmen.
3:14
Uh, they won by 16, score's very misleading. They're up 35 to three. They took their foot off the gas.
3:19
So if you laid the chalk with USC or took their team total over, I know that was a loser for you, but I'm not gonna take too much away from USC in a, what was truly a preseason game.
3:28
The crowd would tell you it was a preseason game as well out there at the Coliseum. By the way, I, I just mentioned Tim's shows. People should know, The College Football Betting Podcast is spectacular. Oh, it's amazing.
3:39
He's the hardest working podcaster at this network. It's great. And that is two, two guys sitting here that do a podcast. Great, great guests. It's great. All I see in my email- Give Tim a listen. Thank you...
3:47
all week long is, is- Yeah... e- export from this podcast. Yeah. And it's just over and over 'cause Tim cares and he loves it, he loves the content. So let- Good job, Tim... so let's just praise Tim Murray- Yeah...
3:56
for the next five minutes. Yep. It's great. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Tim Murray. Hey, this has been great. Uh, appreciate it, guys. [laughs] See you later. I appreciate it. All right.
4:03
Let's, let's, uh, let's bounce around the country here. We'll go random. Yeah. Let's start with the, uh, with Coach Prime and the Buffaloes heading to Georgia Tech, where the Yellow Jackets are seven-point favorites.
4:13
Yeah, I feel like this could be potentially... And now, look, it's week one. Let's dip our toe in. Don't go too crazy. We're not throwing 10-unit mega locks out there for week one. Maybe some people are.
4:24
I'm not certainly gonna do it. I took the seven here with Colorado, Gil, and you know, it's, it's a bit of a leap of faith.
4:30
You know, it, it feels like Colorado, as we just talked about UNC, nobody wanted to bet on UNC last week, uh, because of just everything that unfolded in year one. It's year four of Coach Prime.
4:41
Things have seemingly gone sideways a little bit. They're not getting the hype that they, uh, had just a couple years ago. Very intrigued to see what this offense is gonna look like, the go-go offense.
4:50
They bring in Brenden Maryon, a innovative offensive coordinator. He was at Sacramento State as their head coach a year ago.
4:56
And more so, this is a bit of a fate of Georgia Tech for me, Gil, because, you know, they lost Buster Faulkner, their offensive coordinator. He goes to Florida. They lose Haynes King, their quarterback.
5:06
It's kind of a do-everything type of quarterback for them. And they lost their backup quarterback in Aaron Philo, who followed Buster Faulkner to Florida, and he'll be the starter for the Gators.
5:15
So they're gonna go with Fernando Mendoza's little brother, Alberto. We'll see how good he is. Maybe he's going to shock the world like his older bro did last year.
5:24
But, uh, if you're giving me a full touchdown in a game that I think probably should be lined in that four to five range, I, I'll fully, I'll happily take a full touchdown here with some uncertainty with the Ramblin' Wreck down in the ATL.
5:36
I will give you a full touchdown. Uh, by the way, what price would you have needed year one of Coach Prime that he would still be coaching the Buffaloes in year four? Ooh. 15 to 1. I was gonna say, has to be high, right?
5:50
Well, what's taking so long? There's, there is no way. Why isn't he in Tallahassee? Why isn't he in Tallahassee by now, Tim? [laughs] What are we doing?
5:55
Uh, you should probably win football games, Kelly, in order- Bang... to get a job like Florida State. The obvious answer. But, but the guy who's currently there isn't doing that, so what's the difference?
6:03
That is also true. He's got a legend. [laughs] Tim's saying you should- Look, I mean-... you should probably win... well, also, we could get into, we could get into finances down there at Florida State. Oh.
6:10
They were looking around for a quarterback, and they had lots of quarterbacks come to Tallahassee, and they said "We'll give you this," they said. "I will leave that door right now. See you later." Yeah.
6:18
And that's why Ashton Daniels is the starting quarterback for Florida State this year. Uh, Will Hill was on earlier. He's taking the Louisville Cardinals plus the points against Ole Miss. What are you doing?
6:28
Oh, I'm gonna ride with my ginger brother. Look, I am infatuated with Louisville this year. Uh, Lincoln Keenholz, an unknown. You know, as we look for the Heisman market, we do this in all sports.
6:38
We try to, we try to buy low, try to buy on the unknown, and that's kind of what Lincoln Keenholz is.
6:44
You know, we saw him get a start, I believe it was in the Cotton Bowl when Ohio State was, you know, had nobody playing against Missouri a couple years ago.
6:52
But everything you heard about Lincoln Keenholz in Columbus when he was the backup to Julian Sayin was the athleticism is off the charts, and this is just a true dynamic athlete.
7:01
And now he goes to Jeff Brohm, who's a quarterback whisperer. And, uh, you know, I think this is, to me, guys, this is the most intriguing game of week one. Um, you know, Nashville, it's a, it's a neutral site game.
7:12
You've got Ole Miss with Pete Golding now as the full-time head coach. Trinidad Chambliss comes back for another year.
7:17
He was exceptional, obviously, when he took over the reins, uh, there, uh, for Ole Miss when Austin Simmons got hurt. And you have Keyuan Lacy, who you could argue is the best running back in college football.
7:28
I just have some questions about Pete Golding being a full-time head coach. He did a great job in the, you know, immediate aftermath of Lane Kiffin. Now you've got the off-season.
7:37
And Jeff Brohm, as an underdog, this is a guy you wanna back. You think back to two, uh, think back to last year, guys. Two t- two touchdown underdog at Miami. They pull off the outright upset.
7:47
So once again, it's that number. You're giving me a full seven, I'll happily take it. There were some seven and a halfs in the off-season. Maybe we get there, but I did grab the seven.
7:56
I think seven minus 105 still out there at Circa, uh, because I just love backing Jeff Brohm as an underdog. And I'll tell you what, guys, I have a very long shot Heisman [laughs] future on Lincoln Keenholz- Oh, wow...
8:09
at 110 to one. Wow. That I will look either really smart come Monday morning, or you'll be like, "You bet that guy to win the Heisman Trophy? You're an idiot.
8:17
We should not listen to the College Football Betting Podcast." Don't worry. We once bet, uh, Taulia Tagovailoa for a Heisman, and, uh, within one half he threw three picks, so I think it could be worse.
8:26
[laughs] Right before a Thursday night game. Little Tua, come on. Yeah, we were smart right before kickoff. Record-setting quarterback for Maryland. [laughs] Were they playing Iowa? Uh, maybe.
8:34
I remember why that sounds right. Maybe, yeah. Oh, that was a Friday night game, Kelly. Why you gotta bring that up? Oh, may- there you go. I probably, that's probably what it was.
8:40
Friday night game, Maryland was catching three. Oh, home dog, this would be a good spot. Right. I think Iowa scored another touchdown just five minutes ago. There you are. I think that was it.
8:47
I think it was like 51 to three. I think that was the game. I think that was it. 30 seconds, Tim. It's not an official Tim Murray segment without a Notre Dame Fighting Irish take.
8:53
They are three touchdown favorites against Wisconsin. I'll be there. Uh- Ooh... my, my maiden voyage to Lambeau- Wow... on Sunday night. Looking forward to it.
9:03
Not gonna lay the chalk here, but I do think just reading the tea leaves a little bit, could be some injuries on Wisconsin's offensive line. Uh, Notre Dame, their mantra this off-season is leave no doubt.
9:15
So this could be a whoopin', and, uh, for Notre Dame, if they wanna win the national title for the first time since '88, I think they need to make a statement on Sunday night.
9:23
Not gonna lay it, but I wouldn't take it either with Wisconsin. Just go to Milwaukee, tell them I know Tim Murray, everything's free. Boom. There you go. That's what I hear. You know? Thank you, Tim. Appreciate it, man.
9:33
Tim Murray, everybody. See you, guys. @1TimMurray. Nick Whalen joins us on the other side. Football next. Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more.
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10:44
Nick Whalen joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Gas line. He is the co-host of Prop Points. Um, the, you know, the football off-season, right? Yep.
10:53
With Jeff Erickson, and they give way to John Hanson during the football season. But of course, he's also Rotowire senior analyst. You can follow him on Twitter @Whalen. Yes, the one replaces the L.
11:02
It's Nick Whalen, everybody. How you doing, Nick? Doing well, guys. Uh, I, I guess kinda the former host of Prop Points, at least for the time being.
11:11
I believe the plan is for us to be back after the Super Bowl, just like we've done the last couple of years. But you can find me now on SiriusXM Monday through Thursday, 1:00 to 3:00 PM Eastern.
11:21
So you know, gotta talk a lot of football this time of year. Eventually, Kelly, in like a month, month and a half, I think I could strong-arm some NBA content onto that show. But always good to be here with you guys.
11:31
It's a platoon. It's like Roenicke and Lowenstein in left field for the Orioles. Exactly. Mm-hmm. Yeah, I, I can't hit lefties. No. There you go. Can't hit lefties. Okay. Future host of Prop Points.
11:41
Nick, how many fantasy football leagues are you in, and are you happy with all of your drafts? Oh, boy. Uh, man, if we're, if we're counting baseball, we're well into double digits. Probably 20 plus, uh, at this point.
11:53
God. But, you know, baseball's kind of a different animal. Not a lot of in-season management there. Really none at all. You just do the draft and then it kinda auto-computes for you.
12:01
So I, I have four or five more drafts that I'll be doing still before week one begins next week. A lot of those taking place over the weekend.
12:08
I, I would say I'm, I'm actually happier than normal on balance with my drafts. I, I am just a card-carrying pessimist, uh, in general, especially when it comes to anything sports related.
12:19
So, like, I usually come out of a draft and I'm, I'm thinking more about the... picks I wish I would've made than the good picks I made. But for the most part, I, I've left most of my drafts this year feeling okay.
12:28
[laughs] There was one that I did, a, a 14-teamer, uh, which I would not advise.
12:32
There's a huge difference between a 12- and a 14-team league as far as, you know, what your team looks like, how many elite players you're able to get. Uh, that one went completely awry.
12:40
I have, like, one of the worst running back rooms I've ever assembled. I need Travis Etienne to basically have a Christian McCaffrey-type of season to have any chance in that league.
12:48
But overall, we're feeling okay as we get closer to week one.
12:51
Last fantasy question: Who was the one fantasy player drafted high-ish in fantasy drafts this year that you, under no circumstances, was gonna pick 'cause you think there is a possibility of a crash on this player, that you just don't buy into this player's success like others do?
13:07
Yeah, I mean, there's, there's two guys for me in round one, and I was in a draft the other night actually where I was picking fourth, and I, I think I've decided that's just the worst pick.
13:13
That's not where I wanna be, uh, because I am not in on Puka Nacua. You know, that's kind of the obvious default Nacua spot.
13:20
Most drafts, you're gonna see Gibbs, Bijan, Jahmyr Chase in some order, and then it, it becomes a little bit more of a debate. You could take Jonathan Taylor. You could push up someone like James Cook.
13:28
I took JSN at the one-four, but Puka Nacua is clearly the guy with the highest ceiling at that spot. I just, I just can't do it. And, you know, the, the off-season stuff is one thing.
13:39
There's a potential suspension coming. I, I saw there was, you know, something from another ex-girlfriend that came out yesterday. Like, I, I have no idea what's [laughs] going on off the field.
13:46
It's been a terrible last few months for Nacua. But I, I really just worry about the style of play. I mean, he's incredibly fun to watch. He's probably the second or third best receiver in the NFL in my eyes.
13:56
But it's just, he takes so many hits. He has such high usage in that Rams offense. You know, last year he was in and out of the blue medical tent, it felt like every single week.
14:05
He, he's just somebody that I, I think coming off of kind of an all-time great season last year, it's gonna be really tough, I, I think, for him to stay healthy enough to replicate that. Nick, what is your most...
14:16
So Kelly and I just did our AFC power rankings yesterday. We did our NFC power rankings today, and we, we throw out the caveat like, "Hey, this is what they are." Mm-hmm. Um, we don't know if we know anything.
14:26
Maybe we're completely wrong. Maybe we're somewhat wrong. Maybe, maybe we're somewhat right. Uh, what's the biggest outlier for you, AFC, NFC, just to the good or to the bad, who you have higher than market or lower?
14:40
Uh, I think in the NFC, I mean, I'm definitely higher on Detroit, which we, which we've talked about, and that's not a crazy take. I think they have the fourth shortest odds right now to, to win the NFC.
14:49
But I, I think in a... If things break right health-wise for Detroit, I think that could be the one seed in the NFC. Maybe they need a little help from the LA Rams to get there. Uh, I, I'm also higher on Dallas.
14:59
I know they're about 13 to 1 right now to win the NFC. I, I don't know if I'm quite that in, but I, I think this is a really well-coached team.
15:06
You know, we've talked about Brian Schottenheimer as a potential Coach of the Year long shot that I think makes some sense.
15:12
You know, we'll see on the Eagles if they can, you know, survive yet another coaching change in terms of an offensive coordinator, losing A.J. Brown.
15:19
But I think there is a path for, for Dallas to really have a complete season, which is something they haven't done in a while. Usually it's, you know, one side of the ball ends up being great, most often the offense.
15:30
But I, I think they, they at least addressed the things they needed to address defensively. So Dallas is a team that I'm high on, and then I, I still can't quit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Hmm... guys.
15:39
You know, we, we've talked about the New Orleans Saints as a team that I like to, to go over their win total. I still think the NFC South runs through the Buccaneers.
15:47
Again, not a team to me that I, I feel like has Super Bowl potential. I'm not a huge Todd Bowles guy.
15:51
But you look around at that division, and a- as much as I'm optimistic about New Orleans, I think there's a ceiling there. I'm not a big Carolina guy. Who the hell knows what's going on with Atlanta?
16:00
So I think Tampa Bay is a team that we've kinda cast aside because of how they played down the stretch last season.
16:05
But, you know, if, if we're, if we're starting to look ahead at week one, I think Tampa Bay to cover four, and maybe even win outright on the road in Cincinnati is something I would look at. Interesting.
16:15
Have you bet any awards in the NFL pre-flop? I, I, I sprinkle in on some long shots. You know, I, I think we've talked about, you know, Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, uh, as some of my favorite MVP long shots.
16:28
Jalen Hurts is another guy I, I just can't quit. I, I have a group chat where I'm just constantly ridiculed for defending Jalen Hurts.
16:35
[laughs] But, you know, around 30, 35 to 1 at some shops for MVP for a guy who has a top two finish to his name. That's something that I've been looking at.
16:42
You know, Offensive Rookie of the Year, I, I, I gave out to Sean Stribling at 33 to 1 a few weeks ago, uh, back when I was still the host of Prop Points, and, you know, that is now down to 11 to 1.
16:52
I, I'm not saying I, I feel great about it. It's some sort of lock of the century, but it's just a wide open race I think this year.
16:57
You know, you have some really talented players, but players who are not in great spots, you know, Jeremiah Love in Arizona, Jadarian Price, who looks like he might be part of a three-headed backfield now in Seattle when Charbonnet's back, Carnell Tate [laughs] who had one of the worst preseasons you could possibly have- Jeez...
17:12
as a top five pick at wide receiver.
17:14
So I, I think that's a market that I would keep an eye on throughout the season because I, I think we're gonna see that market ebb and flow really week to week because of, of, you know, these talented players kinda landing in bad situations.
17:26
That's how you get somebody like Stribling. That's how you get somebody like Jakobi Lane, who's 15 to 1 right now in Baltimore.
17:31
Um, I said earlier one of the big topic sentences of the off-season for me is the, quote-unquote, "neglect of the Seattle Seahawks with all the over-the-top-" Yeah... "and perhaps justified love on the, uh, LA Rams."
17:42
The other, the sort of the, the most popular bet was the Deshaun Stribling Offensive Rookie of the Year. Like, how many people did we have made that bet? Oh, yeah.
17:51
Uh, multiple people, right, as soon as Ricky Pearsall went down. Three or four, something like that.
17:55
Uh, not went down, but they decided, "Well, hey, we probably should finally do surgery on this man's knee a year too late." Uh, Nick, appreciate that.
18:02
Again, Nick, senior analyst over at RotoWire, always appreciate the time, Nick. Thank you. Anytime, guys. Thanks.
18:09
I could read more tweets, but I won't because he'll get mad, A, and B, he might have eaten at Roy Rogers in his past as well.
18:16
From Pittsburgh, PA, it's Toddy Wishnev, everybody, the host, or I should say the star, of Wishnev Wednesdays, the star of the Megapod, which comes back next week for week one of the National Football League.
18:26
What's up, Toddy? By all means, let's talk more about fast food when the FIBA Women's World Cup starts on Friday, all games on Adrio Backs. Now, I would like to take a shot at- It's FIBAst...
18:38
your friend William Hilton trying to give me the business about being right on everything when the guy gives out the first three and first five in the Marlins game, but yet doesn't even tell you minus one 20 or minus one 15.
18:50
How are you supposed to know? Thank you, Will, and thank you, Gil, for showing both of you you're inanity. Thank you. Todd Wishnev, everybody, @TWishnev on Twitter. Um, Todd, two questions.
19:04
One, you're not betting the FIBA World Cup, are you perhaps, in the WNBA? Are you- I, I, I just found out two seconds ago that it's on TV, so I may because I know a lot of these girls on a lot of these teams.
19:16
'Cause there's girls from the WNBA on all the different teams. Like, France has Gabby Williams and Marine Johannes, and China has a bunch of girls that I know. You know, so I know these teams, so maybe.
19:27
I might dabble- Okay... in the live if they're live. S- such an awkward break this late in the season, isn't it? It is. Yeah. I needed a break.
19:35
I had r- I had run it all the way up to 21 units, and now I'm down to only up two units. Oh, man. I just totally lost my, my, my, uh, mojo in it, but, you know, what are you gonna do? What are you gonna do?
19:46
Your FIBA World Cup Women's outright odds, USA minus 400, France eight to one, Belgium 10 to one, Australia 16 to one, everybody else 25 to one or longer. Well, we're gonna dominate. We, meaning us, the US of A.
20:03
Oh, okay. Okay, Todd, question- WNBA haters like you and Will should not be saying "we". We're not WNBA haters. I like it. I like the league. No. What are you talking about? No. No. No. No. I know you.
20:13
Just, just 'cause you- I know you and Will, your types... just 'cause you hate Caitlin Clark, that's a whole different story.
20:17
Okay, let me ask you- You're probably in favor of them throwing, uh, different things on the court that are- [laughs]... that can't be said in- I am not in favor... in mixed company. That's not true.
20:25
Oh, I'm sure you are. I'm not, I'm not pro that. I'm sure you are. [laughs] Um, have you eaten at Roy Rogers before? Have you in your past? Yes? I mean, is that a serious question? Okay. Is that a serious question?
20:34
[laughs] Well, I w- I would like to... Obviously, that's a yes. Where, where's the fried chicken rank, Todd? [laughs] Is that a serious question? Where's the fried chicken rank? Have you ever had the fried chicken? I...
20:43
You know what? I haven't eaten any of that stuff in over five months. My blood sugar is good. I, I don't even wanna talk about it. Okay, that's right. We don't wanna put it in his head. It's all you, Pat and current.
20:51
We don't wanna put it in his head. That kind of, that kind of discussion is just terrible. That's right. And you, you should know better- Yeah... as a thin guy. He, he, he cannot have the, even the discussion.
21:00
He can't get... I don't want it to seep into his brain. All right, college football- That's right... week zero happened last week obviously.
21:07
You are back at it live betting college football, and you, uh, have some lessons to impart for us.
21:13
I, I mean, I don't know if they're lessons, but I would say that there may be some little insights into what, you know, different scenarios and stuff, which I think are interesting.
21:22
Uh, you know, I wasn't watching the Robert Morris game in the first half. They were playing some... It, you know, they've got the [laughs] they do have ESPN+ on a lot of these games, so I watched the second half.
21:31
But I'm looking at the stats, and I'm like, "Oh my God, these teams can't move the ball at all." So I played under 31 and a half, and I lost because of a defensive touchdown. Oh.
21:39
But in my mind, it was the right play- Mm-hmm... because, you know, typically you don't see the defensive touchdown. So that was an interesting situation. Uh, the...
21:48
H- here's what, here's one I wanted to talk about was kind of interesting. Florida State was playing New Mexico State, okay?
21:55
They were, like, a 30-point favorite, and this is where, when you watch a lot of games and you look at a lot of statistics, you can start to glean insight.
22:03
What are the stats supposed to look like in a game where it's 31-point spread? You know, what... You should know what it's supposed to look like, okay? I'm watching the game.
22:12
Y- you're looking for midway second quarter Florida State to be averaging nine or 10 yards a play because they can't be stopped even in the slightest bit, and you're looking for the other team probably to be averaging two yards a play.
22:23
That's kind of what it should look like. It didn't look like that because N- New Mexico State was moving the ball, and Florida State was moving the ball, but they're only averaging, like, seven and a half yards a play.
22:32
Score was 17-7. I said to myself, "For sure, New Mexico State team total is the correct thing to play over." Now, why do I say that? The pregame was 53 and Florida State 31.
22:46
Now, if you, if you don't know how to do a pregame team total from just knowing the spread, you take half of the total, which is t- let's say 50... Let's just say call it 54 to make it easy.
22:57
27 is half, and if the spread is 30, let's say, that's 15 for each way, so that's 27 plus 15 is 42. 27 minus 15 is 12, half of the 30-point spread, right? And you get a team total 42-12.
23:14
That's where what you're looking for is a 30-point spread on a 54 total. 42-12 is what the team totals are gonna be around 'cause that's, if you add it up, that's 30, and that's 54, right? The- 42 plus 12 is 54.
23:28
The confluence of spread- So you know pregame-... and, and total, yes. Mm-hmm. Right.
23:32
So you know pregame, people are looking for New Mexico State to score 12, and they, and they're looking for Florida State to score around 42.
23:39
So it's 17-7 midway, maybe a little bit into the second quarter, and I see New Mexico State's moving it at about four and a half yards a play. They really shouldn't be moving that well. They are.
23:50
I'm like, "I gotta get on this over," on the... because I know New Mexico State is gonna score. Now I sh- I thought, "Should I play New Mexico State team total, or should I play just the total of the game?"
23:59
Which was right around 52 at that point. I thought to myself, "Well, Florida State isn't averaging nine yards a play, but still seven and a half yards a play.
24:07
They'll probably continue to score, especially in the second half, and I know New Mexico State's gonna score, so I just, I'm just gonna play the total of the full game." Ended up I played, like, over 53.
24:18
I think, uh, New Mexico State did score, and had I played their team total, which I think at that point was maybe around 14 and a half or something, they ended up with 17.
24:27
Uh, and I believe Florida State had 34, something- Yep... something around there.
24:31
But the point is I outsmarted myself because I played the full game total instead of the The team total New Mexico State, which I really liked.
24:38
But I thought to myself, "A, it's probably better just to do the full game total because you're gonna get a New Mexico scores, and Florida State sooner or later is gonna start to roll."
24:47
That was my theory, and I lost by two points, but would've won the New Mexico State side. I- The point that I'm trying to make, I guess, is... Go ahead. No, I was gonna...
24:55
No, finish your thought, and then I'll have a follow-up. The point you were trying to make is?
24:58
The, the point that I was, uh, that I'm trying to make is if you watch enough of these games, you know what a 30-point underdog statistic should look like in the second quarter. That's an awesome point. Yeah.
25:08
And I knew that New Mexico State was moving the ball too much to have a team total that low. Okay. Similarly, USC as well. USC had a similar game with, uh, San Jose State.
25:20
San Jose State was moving the ball too much to have such a low total. I don't remember exactly what it was, but it was very low. Okay. Uh, here's my one follow-up.
25:30
To the person who bets in-game or is an aspiring in-game bettor who likes what you're saying but would have this question, uh, would say, "Yeah, that makes sense, Todd, but what, uh, why wouldn't I think...
25:42
I understand what you're saying, but why wouldn't I conversely think, oh yeah, that's what's happened. This ought to regress to the mean." In other words, it ought to regress to what the pre-flop number is.
25:53
Wouldn't the res- wouldn't the counter to that counter be we don't know what these teams are yet, so there is- True... like, how can you even know what regression to the mean even means at that point?
26:03
But also, I think that, that I've watched enough of these games to know that if it, uh, 20 minutes into the game, if New Mexico State was moving the ball as well as they were...
26:13
Now, I'm not saying they weren't moving the ball great, but they were moving it, you know? And maybe averaging four and a half yards a play. That's not gonna regress. That should not even be happening, period, okay?
26:24
In that kind of game.
26:25
The fact that it's happening at all, it's only gonna get worse for Florida State 'cause as they get further ahead, they're gonna put in second and third string, and that team might even move the ball more, which is what we saw in San Jose State.
26:35
Early on, they only had the one touchdown, and then late they put on a bunch of touchdowns because they could move it a bit against USC's first team. They could move it a lot against USC's second and third team defense.
26:46
So I don't think the regression happens as much in scenarios like that. Always fascinating. Todd Wishnev, everybody. Is the Discord open, or are you full still? Uh, I think we're full. I mean, we might have some spots.
27:00
I'm not sure yet. I haven't figured that one out. Okay. Stay tuned on that. Thank you, Todd. Todd Wishnev, everybody, @TWishnev. Thanks. Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more.
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28:10
Mark Borchert joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. You may know him better as Basewinner. You can follow all his stuff @basewinner, basewinner.com.
28:17
He joins us now from an undisclosed location somewhere in the desert back where he lives. How you doing, Mark? I'm doing great, yeah. Ely, Nevada, not a bad place, actually. The weather's better in the summer.
28:28
It was beautiful up there when I... I stayed the night there, uh, at, at a, what the hell was that place called? The Ponderosa Hotel Casino. Oh, wow. Nice. A dog-friendly casino. And, uh, so it's pretty cool.
28:40
And they have, you know, I'm a big track and field guy, do Masters track, and they have White Pine High School has a brand-new... I mean, they must have spent at least a million dollars on that track.
28:49
It's a great facility. I'm thinking about, you know, Weingarten used to say, "Hey, we're gonna have a handicapper, uh, headquarters," like a camp. Like a, like a c- what was it? W- a compound. A compound. You know? Yeah.
28:59
And I think that the handicapper compound out there- Oh, wow... would really work well. Uh, but, uh, yeah, so I got down twen- 1,400, uh, miles driving with dogs and a packed c- uh, Land Cruiser.
29:11
Uh, cr- uh, I really saw the West Coast. I, that's what I, that's what I gotta say, Gil, right? You, you said in there, I don't want to let this slide, you said you're a big fan of track and field.
29:19
What w- what event did you used to do in track and field that we found so amusing? Well, I actually trained for the pentathlon. Oh, wow.
29:27
So it's the, uh, the first event's, it's, it's a long jump, and then it, uh- I throw everything... the javelin 200 meters, discus, and 1,500 meters.
29:36
So yeah, I've really, I've, that's one of the things I do outside of handicapping, uh, that I'm, I'm r- super serious about. You know, for a 56-year-old guy.
29:43
So it, it- I was gonna say, what, what leads one in that direction? W- what, when do you wake up and say, "You know what I'd like to do today? I'd like to throw a javelin or learn how to." W- when did that start for you?
29:55
Well, I li- I've always liked to run. There's a, there's a really nice, uh, talk about a great facility at Paradise Valley College here i- in, in, in Scottsdale or outside of Scottsdale.
30:05
And, uh, so I've always run and sprinted and, and, uh, couple years ago, I, I started the long jump, and then I thought, "Well, you know what? I can, I can throw the javelin."
30:13
I did it a little bit when I was in my 30s, the, the pentathlon, and, uh, I said, "Well, I can go back and, and do that." So it, it, uh, it, you know, I love being outdoors, Gil.
30:21
It, it, it's really, it's, you're, you're sitting on a computer all day, uh, grinding numbers, writing code, and handicapping. It's nice to get out and, and get some fresh air.
30:30
You ever done the steeplechase, Mark, where you're hurdling in the water? I am. You ever done that one? No, I don't, but I have a really good friend, Flash, who, who actually went to the- Flash [laughs]...
30:38
World Masters Ch- His, his name's Flash, and he's really good, and he went to the World, World Masters Championship. It was in, uh, uh, you would like this, uh, Da- uh, South Korea.
30:47
Uh, Da- Daegu, is that how you pronounce it? Yeah, that, that's where he went there for about two weeks. Why would I love South Korea? What are you trying to say? I'm sorry, go ahead No, but I, I think- No-...
30:54
you vacation there, I think, 'cause you li- I think- I've been there once. Uh- I think that you did. I don't know... I may know, I may know a, a Korean. Yes. Mm. Yeah. Okay. Yes. Okay. Yeah. Oh.
31:04
We're just waiting for you to continue now. Mar- Mark, was that the end of Flash's story? Flash. [laughs] Flash went three and one? He, he won.
31:10
He won the Steeplechase for, I think, that he's 45 to 49 age group, and he won it. It was, it was a good race. I, I, I'm very proud of him.
31:16
[laughs] Didn't, uh, Boss Hogg in Dukes of Hazard call his little basset hound Flash- [laughs]... I believe? I think that's, that's what I picture every time. Wait, Mark, Mark, have you ever...
31:24
Sorry, but we talk to Drew Didsick once a week. Yeah. Like, have you, have you ever handicapped track and field? Like, have you ever bet this during the Olympics or anything?
31:32
Yes, I ha- well, I actually have a really good friend, and I can't disclose who it is 'cause he, he, he told me, "Never disclose who the friend is." And he actually, at Bookmaker, they had, uh...
31:41
They were the only available lines, and he was really good.
31:44
He would do the Diamond League and, and the Olympics, and, uh, they ended up, they, they ended up taking the markets off, uh, he- and he's like, he's like, "I'll give you the plays, but you gotta, y- you gotta monitor how much you bet, 'cause th- they're gonna know it's me."
31:55
I'm like, "Okay." A- and I did, and, and, but, uh, I, I can't... I will tell you guys, uh, who it is off-air, but I can't- All right... I can't do it on-air 'cause I vowed secrecy to the guy. Love it. I love that.
32:05
Does it rhyme with Mason Mine Martin? No. Okay. No, no. Very, uh- Got it... well, I can't, I don't want to get... I'll tell you guys, I'll tell you guys- Okay... uh, off-air. All right. Yeah. [laughs] Okay.
32:15
What'd you land on in baseball today, Mark? What are you betting? Well, you know, today I'm gonna... This is gonna be the best parlay for, for Fezzik in the history of parlays. Oh.
32:24
It's, it's the Yankees-Dodgers, a money line parlay. Let's go. And, uh, I mean, if, if that's as blue bud- blood and square as it can be, that's it, but, you know, the numbers line up here.
32:35
Uh, I've got, uh, I've got the, the Yankees with Schlittler. I've got them about minus 201, and, and they're in the market about minus 160, so I think that's a good play.
32:46
And then, uh, Yama will be there today, Gil, I think. Uh, the Dodgers minus 240, I think they should be closer to minus 300. Uh, you know, this Dodger team has been very sketchy as of late. I've, I've bet this...
32:59
Oh, and I'm gonna do this too. Team total Dodgers over two and a half, you can get that at minus 108. I think it should be about ma- minus 134, to be precise- Oh...
33:08
uh, based on the pr- run projection and the Passan calculator. Uh, but, uh, I would put those together in a parlay. I, I bet both of them on the run line too. You can get them both on the run line about even money, Gil.
33:19
Okay. You have a straight bet for us, so that Fezzik doesn't lose his mind? Yeah, let's, let's go, let's, let's do this one. Uh, uh, I think you'll appreciate this bet. Baltimore minus one and a half, minus 105.
33:29
Bring, bring back some childhood memories- Yes... for Mr. Gil. Yeah. And, uh, it, it... Sugano is the worst guy on the board today from a, a hits per plate appearance, total bases per plate appearances allowed.
33:42
League average is.36. He's at.475. There's only five pitchers that are worse than him, and I think four of them have been, been released. So that's a good sign for the- [laughs]...
33:51
for the, uh, for, [laughs] for the Orioles.
33:54
Um, and, and- And wasn't- So I think that- Wasn't Sugano the guy that, like, if you blindly tailed the Rockies when he pitched, of any starting pitcher in baseball, you made the most money backing him too?
34:05
Wasn't he the guy? I think you're right. Yeah. He's one of those guys, you know... And, and Erod, the same way.
34:09
We talked about him a couple weeks ago, where all the sabermetrics are terrible, and they caught up to him last night.
34:14
But, uh, I mean, he was just pitching, uh, outside of his, his ASS, uh, from a sabermetric standpoint, and, uh, so that caught up with him. And I, I think that, you know, you can...
34:25
Some of these guys are villains though, Gil. Like, remember Martin Perez a couple years ago- Yeah... and you would say, uh, you... Chris Young, go, go way back in the day. Chris Young, uh, for the, for the Royals.
34:36
Dude, dude. And- Chris Young, I used to bet that dude, 6'10". I think he's now the GM of the Rangers, isn't he? But he's, Chris Young- He is. He is. You're right...
34:43
Chris Young, when he pitched, man, I used to bet on him 'cause his sabermetrics were, just led me to it, and he would win more often than not. He would get the job done. But yeah, there's got, there's littered with guys.
34:53
When you bring up Martin Perez, though, I'm just, just thinking to myself, "How are we still betting on this guy in 2026?" Amazing he's still playing. It's crazy.
35:02
You know, these guys, uh, he's one of an anomaly, and Blackburn, uh, w- when he pitched with the A's was the same way. I think, I think he's out of the league right now.
35:10
Last I checked, he was in the bullpen for the Yankees, but I think that they, they released him.
35:14
But, uh, you know, you have these guys who were, you have, you have really poor sabermetrics, uh, but they continue to win and, and, and, uh, that's the way Sugano is.
35:24
And that just, it leads you to a, a, a, I guess, a, a philosophical question. How long are you gonna play the sabermetrics versus, uh- Yeah... you know, what the guys produce, right? Yeah.
35:34
Okay, two questions here before you go. One, did you come up with any team for the month of September as your favorite? Oh, I do, Gil.
35:41
I actually have three teams, and- And congratulations- Uh, I'll give you the exact-... congratulations on your f- I'll give you the exact p- percentages, Gil. Okay.
35:48
Uh, I've got, so, like, I've got the Dodgers as of today, and I... This updates every day for me. I made this application. I'll have to share it with you. It's really cool.
35:55
But they're 30.3%, uh, to, to win the, the month of September, so that should be plus 231. You can get them at DraftKings, plus 320. Mm-hmm. Philly, again, got me there last, last month. Congratulations.
36:10
I've got them 13... Yeah, it was g- it was great. What a fun time, and I, I wrote about it as the...
36:14
If you guys wanna see, like, like, a fun success story about the, the month, the, the month simulations, go to my site, read my posts, 'cause it, it was, it was a real good journey.
36:24
Uh, but I've got them, they should be plus 625. Uh, they're in the mark- mark right now at plus 1,200. And then the third team that's showing value is, uh, the Guardians. Ooh. I've got them 11.2%- Wow...
36:36
to win, uh, so plus 793 would be, be the right, the right price, a fair price for me, and they're at plus 1,400. So I think that those three teams are the ones that are showing value.
36:46
And, and real quick, uh, I'm waiting for these division winner, uh, monthly markets, 'cause I'm, I actually have, uh, the application handicaps those too. And, uh, shout-out to a couple people who actually listen to me.
36:58
You know Bob, uh, Gettis, I think is how you pronounce his last name. Uh, he, he tweets on your show a lot. Mm-hmm. He got the Astros at 14 to 1.
37:07
Uh, I think I gave that out maybe a week before the season, uh, or before the, the month ended, or c- or maybe 10 days or something like that. So I, I'm waiting for these division markets.
37:15
I don't know if DraftKings is gonna put them out.
37:17
Uh, th- they did about maybe on the 3rd or the 4th of the, uh, of the, of the month last, last month, so I'm waiting for that and, and, uh, you know, hopefully we'll be able to talk about those as well, Gil.
37:27
Last question, 30 seconds. Mm-hmm. Uh, we went over World Series match-ups earlier on the show. What would be a World Series match-up that you would be interested in seeing how it's priced, if you could bet it right now?
37:39
Mm, you know, I, I'm showing, like, uh, Tampa Bay maybe, and I, I have to look at the prices. I know, uh, I would say maybe Tampa Bay, like, a Tampa Bay-Philly would be a good one. Um- 30-31... 35 to one. 35 to one.
37:53
Is that, does that interest you? Might that be something that might interest you? I would, I would have to r- I'd have to run the math though.
37:58
But I have, I, you know, each, each team to win the World Series I have, and so, like, uh, it's just basically a, a multiplication of both those teams. Okay. So but that would be r- off the top of my head, yeah.
38:07
Mark Borchardt, everybody. Thank you, Mark. Congratulations on the Phillies again in August
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