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Sep 4, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | September 4, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | September 4, 2025
00:00
45:35
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the e-sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. That right there is Kelly Bidlin, everybody.
0:21
Hey-oh, how we doing? Not just any Thursday, Kelly. Football. [laughs] The beginning. One, one of the gr- no, the greatest day on the calendar of the year.
0:32
Do, do you get more excited, this is a real question I'm about to ask you. Do you get more excited this morning or NFL draft morning? Oh, man. Of course we, of course we would ask each other those questions. Yeah.
0:44
I've never heard that one before. Yeah. I've- As much as we love the draft, I'm still going today. [laughs] Because you- That's a good one though... because it is today, that's why you're answering today.
0:53
But I, I think if we asked this on NFL draft morning, you might have a, you might have a different answer. I, I, I might have a different answer. I wor- I woke up with a pep in my step, Gil. Oh.
1:00
I only had one cup of coffee this morning. I didn't need, I didn't need the whole pot. I didn't need three, four cups 'cause I'm ready to go. NFL's here, it's finally back. We're firing bets. Let's go.
1:09
Well, I got one for you. What's better, Super Bowl or week one? Oh, week one. Week one, for sure. Week, it's not even close. Okay, good, good. As long as- As long as we're on the same page there...
1:17
unless of course a certain team's in it, and then otherwise, different answer.
1:20
[laughs] Uh, on the show today, Jensen Lewis from By the Books, the show that precedes us, uh, will join us here to talk Major League Baseball momentarily as, uh, we're in the home stretch of the 2025 regular season, and not much changes
1:35
with the current playoff position, at least, uh, the last several weeks, last month or so. Those San Francisco Giants just four back in the, uh, in the NL. Don't look now.
1:44
Tim Murray, uh, co-host of VSiN Prime Time and the College Football Podcast, uh, that he does daily now. Yeah. Not just weekly. They do it daily. Daily, I think it's three times a week, right?
1:55
I think I heard three times a week. Oh, is it three times a week? But then he's got, he's got the Tailgate Show Saturday mornings. Yeah, he's a busy guy. Tim, Tim's doing a great job with this stuff.
2:02
College Football Betting Podcast, the Tailgate, the College Football Tailgate Show, uh, Tim with all his college football thoughts for week two.
2:08
We can call that week two in college football, 'cause remember, we start with week zero. Uh, Zach Cohen, and then Crack. Zach and Crack is in the fold today. Zach Back.
2:17
Zach Cohen, VSiN senior editor, with his thoughts on the US Open and NFL week number one, and then the Crack Man, Bill Krackomberger. A, an hour later- That's right... from what we've been used to.
2:27
Uh, he made that announcement last week here on the show. He will be here, uh, moving forward 12 noon Eastern, 9 A.M. Pacific for an hour. Glad you brought that back up.
2:36
It's probably something we should mention a couple times this hour- Yes... for people that are waiting.
2:40
I, I know there is a couple, there's probably a couple people in the audience, or at least a good, a c- you know, a percentage, a small percentage are like, "Oh, come on. I gotta go to lunch then," or something. Let go.
2:47
Yeah, yeah. Yeah. No, there definitely is. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. But that's how the, that's how the cookie crumbles. There's definitely multiple that tune in on Thursday at this time and be like- Yeah...
2:56
"All right, let me, let me get through these two jabronis for an hour before Crack comes on." May- maybe we'll just have Kelly imitate Crack for an hour. [laughs] Do that. That's what we'll do.
3:04
Remember when we were doing the- Oh... we were gonna do the fake show announcements? Oh. And I was like, "That was one of our options?" Like, be like Crack- Yes... Crack will replaces Kelly.
3:12
And I was like, "Wait, that's not a funny joke. I'm gonna run myself out of a job." [laughs] Um, real quick before we get to football, 'cause, uh, a couple things happened yesterday.
3:20
Well, first of all, th- this does have, have to do with football. The Megapod debuted yesterday, the Beating the Book Megapod, Beating the Book Podcast. Looked great. Starting its 15th season as a podcast.
3:32
I know what you're thinking. It's like, "A podcast been around for 15 years?" Uh, we have been. Uh, Beating the Book Megapod in its 15th season. Todd Wishnell, seventh season. Will Hill's third season on the show.
3:42
Uh, Steve Fezzik was the week one guest. We always have a rotating guest. And we did it live from the, uh, SiriusXM Studios at the Wynn yesterday, and it is just- Looked beautiful... fantastic. They did a great job.
3:52
Shout out to everybody here, Isaiah Wrinkle, uh, Wyatt Tomchek, and everybody at, uh, the Sirius Studios. John Goulet, our buddy. Yeah. Jeremiah Crowe. Uh, Brian doing the audio there.
4:01
So it was, it just went great, and, um, it, you know, the hilarity ensued. [laughs] That's all I have to say. It's, uh, eh, it's a heavy dose of Wishnell as well in there.
4:10
Uh, so the response has been great based on the downloads. Also on YouTube, it's available on YouTube.
4:14
It's, it's multiple, multiple streams, and, uh, I'll go through the picks that I had anyway, and I'll let you listen to the podcast for everybody else's, uh, as we are very competitive with the picks there on a year to year basis.
4:24
The other thing was, of course, the US Open. Uh, the US Open yesterday, good and bad. The good, another 2-0 clean sheet in the match play. Uh, Jannik Sinner, easy-peasy, under 32 games against Lorenzo Musetti last night.
4:39
Straight-set win, and then earlier in the day, Felix Auger-Aliassime is a plus 133 dog, gets it done against Alex de Minaur. So, uh, what's that?
4:47
Six out of the last seven, up 19 units since the last couple days of grass and match play. Nice. On the future side, however, remember that Iga nine to one that we hit at Wimbledon?
4:57
Well, we gave some back yesterday- Yeah... on the future side of it. Uh, as we, as, as Iga loses in straight sets to Amanda Anisimova in the quarters. Man, she looked good. Amanda Anisimova.
5:07
I, I, I said it yesterday during a numbers game, I don't know if you caught it, where I'm like, "I f- feel like she comports herself much better today." Mm.
5:13
I had a, I had a strange feeling, 'cause she's a big hitter, and, uh, she's- You know, I, I caught that with, with O- with Osaka when we were talking about that yesterday. Well, so that's- For sure...
5:21
so that's the other one. So the other one is, so Iga loses to Amanda Anisimova. Iga's se- Iga's serve departed. Mm-hmm, yeah. So that was a big deal. And then, by the way, Amanda was better than her.
5:33
She was also luckier than her, very... She had a couple net cords on huge points, even match point, where Iga's like, "Are you kidding me?" And Amanda's like s- super poli- you know, sorry, not sorry, kind of thing.
5:42
So she was, she was all things better than Iga yesterday. And then at night, Karolina Muchova was our 14 to one play in the quarter, Q3. She played fine.
5:53
She played maybe even very well, but Naomi Osaka was hitting lines left and right. I- she was just out of control great yesterday. She's been awesome. It feels like- Yeah...
6:03
every time I've watched her this tournament, she looks like she's playing- Oh... some of the best tennis she's played in a while. I, I mean, like, is she gonna, is she, she gonna make a push here?
6:13
Trivia question: who's won the most Women's Slams of active players besides Iga? It's Naomi Osaka Naomi Osaka She's won four. They're all on hard courts, two at the US Open.
6:21
Uh, today is the women's semis, and it is in the mor- uh, it's not, none in the morning. They're both at night. Begins with our play. I am on the over in the Pegula-Sabalenka semi.
6:34
Jessie Pegula, Ameri- the only other American alive besides Ana- Amanda Anisimova. Jessie Pegula going up against the world number one, Aryna Sabalenka.
6:43
Um, I think Pegula comports herself well here, might even have a shot to win, but it wasn't enough for me to, to go crazy on that, but I do think it's competitive.
6:53
Over 21 and a half games as we look to, uh, hit our seventh out of eight on the match play side. So Pegula, uh, Pegula-Sabalenka over 21 and a half games in the first of the two semis.
7:03
And then it's, then it's Naomi and Anisimova, which will just be rockets back and forth at each other. That, that is... That one's tightly lined. Osaka minus 120, uh- Yeah...
7:12
favorite in that, and then you have Sabalenka minus 300 plus 230 coming back on Jessie. Yep, over 21 and a half Pegula-Sabalenka is the one play in the women's semis.
7:22
As, as we always say here, this is the, the decency of tennis is not only is it awesome, but, uh, it has the, the elegance to then move out of the way once the football season starts in terms of where the Slams begin and the Slams end.
7:34
And so which brings us to tonight's game, uh, Philadelphia-Dallas, the kickoff of the National Football League season, where this line has bounced a- between seven and a half and eight and a half this morning back and forth.
7:47
Uh, it, yeah, I d- I cannot believe how much movement we have seen on this game over the past couple days, right?
7:53
It's, it's almost as if adding tens of millions of people to the sports betting world via legalized wagering has caused these things to light up like a Christmas tree late. Yeah. That's exactly what's going on.
8:06
I, I'm, I'm losing track of days now. Yeah. When, when did I talk about laying seven with that? Was it Tuesday or Monday? Uh, I don't know. My, I'm losing track of days too. Feel like it was Tuesday. Whatever. Right.
8:16
I feel like it was Tuesday, and then immediately it shot back up yesterday, and there was Eagles m- I mean, I saw nine nines hit the board, uh, at points yesterday, and then, yeah, there was a late wave of Cowboys money last night driving this back down.
8:29
Well, this morning bounced it, bounced it back and forth. Eight is the consensus. I, I'm just gonna guess, and I'm, by the way, I'm not good at this, but I, I guess it's gonna land eight at the end. Yeah.
8:37
Feels like an eight. Yeah, I think eight, eight and a half. Uh, Eagles eight-point favorites, total 47 and a half. I don't have a play. This was not one of my best bets on the Megapod.
8:46
This is not a play I have i- in any of my accounts. Uh, it's not something that I gravitated towards. You know, last year, I don't even know if we can use those as a barometer.
8:55
The Eagles crushed the Cowboys twice, but Dak Prescott did not play in either of those games. Obviously, Micah gone from the Cowboys defense. Kenny Clark in.
9:04
I don't think we're talking enough about him, how he could improve the Cowboys rush defense. I mean, how can you not, really? Right, he'll shut down Saquon Barkley, obviously.
9:11
[laughs] I don't know if that's gonna happen. Um, but at least Dallas, uh, has that going for them [laughs] defensively. Uh, Eagles know Kellen Moore as the offensive coordinator.
9:20
Kevin Patullo, though, uh, was, uh, hired, I should say, uh, promoted from within, as they say, uh, was the, uh, is, is now the offensive coordinator, going up against Matt Eberflus, the new Dallas defensive coordinator.
9:33
It's a risk. When last we saw Matt Eberflus, he was botching timeouts on Thanksgiving. It's gotta be a coaching staff you have a lot of confidence in in Dallas. Uh, sure. I don't know. I, I have no...
9:43
You don't mind, by the way, you getting the paint inhalation again in here? Yeah, yeah. Just now. Yeah, yeah. Just now as I'm speaking, I'm getting. Yep, yep, yep.
9:48
Um, I just, I don't know how I can quantify this other than saying this is sort of a Malcolm Gladwell blink thing. I feel like this is going to be a high-scoring affair.
9:58
I don't know, and I can't really tell you why I think that, but... And we don't have much. Like, the only time Jalen, I get this from, uh, Nate Tice over at Yahoo.
10:06
The only time that Jalen Hurts ever went up against a Matt Eberflus-coordinated defense, uh, he had the most air yard, the most air yards per drop back of any game of his entire career.
10:19
Um, and then the one, that one game, and this is a few years ago, so read into it what you will, three touchdowns on 17 attempts, and he threw for 315 yards. But he did have two picks and a poor drop back success.
10:32
In other words, he had, he was great on big plays but wasn't really moving the chains. Mm-hmm. And I just think about the, uh,
10:39
you know, the, uh, the Cowboys secondary here, and on one side you will get Trevon Diggs, but on the other side you get this kid from the Bills. Remember K- Kahir Elam? Oh, Ka- Kahir Elam. I, I know well, yes. Yeah.
10:53
I think Jalen Hurts exploits the heck out of him tonight. And so I, I just think the Eagles will, will have no issue scoring.
11:01
I don't think the C- I mean, the Cowboys offense, say what you, say what you will about everything else, but man, they got, they certainly got weapons now with George Pickens there, and I think Dak is gonna sling it around the yard.
11:10
I just feel like a lot of points are gonna be scored here. But I'll, I'll be honest with you, I do not have a play in, in the account yet. I, I teased down the Eagles yesterday.
11:16
Did put in a couple, a couple small teasers. Yeah. We talked about that earlier in the week.
11:20
I, I usually don't like to go heavy with teasers, parlays early in the season, but man, there, there were some games on the board that I, I couldn't look past yesterday when numbers hit, so.
11:29
There's a lot of teaser legs that look good this week. I have Eagles, Bills. Bills, Bills. I played a six and a half point teaser, took them up to seven and a half Bills. So I anchored a couple teasers around that.
11:39
All right, we'll get to all our picks. Picks. We have made plays. Uh, let's talk some baseball next, though. Jensen Lewis from By The Books, all things MLB, on a Numbers Game at Visa, the sports betting network.
11:49
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12:52
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. A special numbers game investigation reveals that the NFL is officially back tonight. Woo! There's still time to get ready to bet smarter.
13:08
Inside VSiN's NFL Betting Guide 2.0, you'll find post pre-season team updates, proven betting systems, contest strategies, and host best bets for week one and beyond.
13:18
Pair with the College Football Betting Guide and get both for as little as 9.99 for your first 30 days. Subscribe now at vsin.com/subscribe. I think I punched in four week one bets into the website this morning.
13:30
You punched them in? And when you, when you do it, you do punch them in, 'cause you are- That's right... heavy-handed. I punch. Well, I'm ac- technically lying. I punched in two. Danny punched in two.
13:37
Did you punch in my three? Danny might have typed in lightly. Did you- Yes, he, he delicately-... do your number?... typed in your three. All right. All right.
13:43
Nice of me to make something beyond a tennis pick once in a while. Yeah. Football and tennis, baby. [laughs] VSiN.com/picks. Uh, VSiN Pro subscribers get them all. I'll tell you who else, uh, you get your picks from.
13:53
Uh, not o- not only, of course, you do from every host and every guest on the network, but, uh, there are s- there are certain hosts and, uh, and VSiN, uh, personalities who bet more in volume than others. Hmm.
14:05
I would say Wes Reynolds is the most voluminous when it comes to that, the biggest, uh, volume shooter of everybody. Is that a word? Voluminous? Yeah, yeah. I believe it is. That's a great... Wow.
14:13
Yeah, you're quite- Well done. Yeah, you're quite- Well done. You're quite welcome. Um, oh, you know who's second?
14:17
Jensen Lewis, I would say, from By The Books, uh, which precedes us each and every weekday here on the network. He, of course, does it with Captain America, Dave Ross.
14:24
Jensen joins us now courtesy of the progressive guest line. Jensen, what's happening? Hi, boys. Uh, great to be with you. Uh, and yes, uh, voluminous, very Vanderbilt word, uh, Gil, right there. Thank you. Voluminous.
14:36
Thank you. Thank you very much. Uh, like that usage. Well done all the way around. The Harvard of the SEC. [laughs] Yeah. [laughs] What is it Ben Wilson called, w- Ben Wilson called, uh, Missouri, where he went?
14:45
The Harvard of Boone County. [laughs] The Harvard of Boone County, Missouri. Uh, all right, Jensen, let me just, uh, let's, let me just say this. I have been betting these monthlies all year. I did last year.
14:56
First half of last year was great. Either won them or flirted with winning them.
15:01
Since then, it has become progressively more of a joke, to the point now where it feels like the teams that I bet on on a monthly basis are trolling me. So I bet the Padres in May. It was the only month they stunk.
15:12
Um- Oof... I bet the Rangers last month, perfectly situated within offensive explos- explosions before and after that. And now here I come to September and I'm like, "Oh, it's the Padres."
15:23
And as soon as I bet them, right, 0 and 3 against the Orioles right out of the gate. They're not winning this division, are they? I don't think so.
15:31
Uh, and, and the inconsistency is alarming here, Gil, because when you think about how they're constructed, if they're in a wildcard series, anything goes, right?
15:42
And so you, you kind of want to be that hot team that, that's moving into that first round in October. And as you kind of look at, at where they are, uh, the home record is great.
15:52
So you'd, you'd want them to be a top wildcard team. If they drift to that five or six seed, I think they're in trouble.
15:59
They're six games under 500 away from Petco Park, and it's a distinct advantage, uh, for that team that would be hosting them, because if you get to that starter, and, and whether it is Dylan Cease or it is Yu Darvish, however they're gonna try and figure it out there, Mike Shields has got a problem, uh, if he cannot get to that bullpen early and often.
16:17
If I came to you from the future, and by future I mean right as the regular season ends, and I said, "Hey, Jensen, one team, uh, on September 4th that was not in first place in their division ended up winning that division," who am I talking about?
16:31
Who's the most likely, do you think? It, it's gonna be crazy, but it's gonna be the Yankees for me. I think so too. Um, a- and, and all that predicated off we get the Roman Anthony news, uh, with the oblique.
16:41
And I know people are holding their breath and hoping it was just a couple of weeks.
16:45
Uh, Gil, I've been around enough guys, and more so on the pitching side, but it's predominantly worse here when you get to a position player. It's not just the swing, it's to be able to run.
16:53
So that's a massive injury for the Red Sox, and, and I don't know how they recover from that from a position player and a leadoff hitter standpoint. He was so dynamic for them.
17:03
So enter the Yankees, and, and if you go back to probably the last four, four to seven years of teams that, that get to the World Series, they're in the top four as far as home runs hit.
17:16
They're also in the top seven in fewest hits allowed.
17:19
And so when we get to October, things that you must have from a pitching staff standpoint, you create a lot of swing and miss, and you're able to hit the ball out of the ballpark.
17:27
Now, I know a lot of people that are looking at the y- back end of that Yankee bullpen saying, "Are you watching the same game as we are?" Yes, I am. Devin Williams feels very brittle right now.
17:38
David Bednar, hang in there. You know, there, there's a lot of angst if I'm Aaron Boone.
17:43
But I think to answer your question round aboutly, of any team, I think it would be the Yankees that are able to find their stride here through the rest of September, and ultimately, if they were gonna win a division, it would be the Yankees in the East.
17:55
I- Let's go, Yanks. Hey, he's, uh, my- Let's go, Yanks... my, my little buddy Kelly Bidlin has some bets, as you can tell, Jensen- Let's go, Yanks... on the Yankees.
18:01
Uh- Bet them at the worst possible time to win the division. That's right. It's called a minus EV bet, what he bet, but it's okay. I hope I get there for him.
18:07
The, uh, the, the other funny thing is here also is, and not funny, but the, in the year where we all kind of acknowledge none of us would be surprised by anyone getting to the World Series and winning the World Series, wouldn't it just be amazing if it ends up being the Yankees and the Dodgers after all this?
18:23
It would, and, and a- again, I'll answer the same way with the Dodgers. I am not sold on their bullpen by any stretch.
18:30
I- if you tell me I've got to win a game right now, as both bullpens are currently constructed between the Yankees and the Dodgers, I would lean the Yankees, just feeling like they, they have enough pieces to get it across the line.
18:43
I don't know if I can say that right now, Gil, for where the Dodgers' bullpen is.
18:46
And that, that should be alarming, knowing that you're gonna have to figure out what your rotation is, who's healthy, who's gonna transition back there.
18:53
So, uh, for whatever reason, they figured it out last year when it was, you know, Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty, and then bullpen games. Uh, so if any team can do it, the Dodgers can.
19:03
But I, I think there are serious questions there. I'll tell you the other one. I loved the way Milwaukee was constructed, but the McGill flexor strain, I don't like whatsoever.
19:12
It's at this point in the year, and if you look at his mechanics, it is not, you know, physiologically one that you just ultimately bounce back and you're gonna be okay. I know he's downplayed it.
19:23
But man, I, I think I've been around long enough to know anytime you get into that area at this late juncture of the year, I, I would have a little bit of a red flag up about the Brewers' bullpen too.
19:33
Who'd you land on today, Jensen, in terms of your plays? Just a one play.
19:39
It's an under, and that White Sox and T- no one will be watching this White Sox and Twins game, and I don't even know if anyone in the stadium will wanna watch it either.
19:45
But, uh, it's a Taj Bradley, like, hope it's the right Taj Bradley, uh, here for the Twins. A- and the White Sox have played a lot better. I was just in Chicago this past weekend.
19:54
There's a lot of promise and a lot of optimism amongst Southsiders. I think they really like watching this young group, and this young group will be motivated to be playing well throughout the end of the year.
20:05
I don't think anyone's motivated for the Twins right now, so they may just roll it out there and just say, "Let's get this one done." So I played the under, uh, eight and a half here, uh, at $1.10.
20:14
I do think this one could be very, um, a lot of alacrity, uh, to use a Vanderbilt word. I think this one goes quite quickly. I don't know if we get a lot of offensive explosion there.
20:23
Uh, and so for me, that's the only one I landed on. And I had some fun. I played a Phillies money line, an Eagles money line parlay. Uh, I know Ranger Suárez has had his ups and downs, but I like his last three starts.
20:34
Uh, the Eagles, what, uh, you know, Super Bowl champs are 10 and 2, a straight up last 12 on opening night. So just a little fun one for a half unit. Uh, Phillies money line, Eagles money line.
20:44
Phillies money line, Eagles money line. A brotherly love, uh, money line pair there. R- real quick, back to the Dodgers thing, 'cause I, I don't wanna let that slide for a second.
20:52
If you had to rank bullpens of the 12 teams that are currently in the playoff, uh, in playoff position, what are they, like, eighth or ninth? Like, they can't be higher than that, right? Yeah. I, I, I think...
21:06
Man, and the Tigers' bullpen scares me, too, 'cause they're dead last in strikeouts per nine as far as their bullpen goes. The Phillies' bullpen scares... I don't know.
21:14
I think the only bullpen that if I needed to get three outs right now, it would be the Red Sox. Um, and, and or yeah, even six, uh, 'cause I'll throw Whitlock in there.
21:23
I, I, I think the Red Sox with Chapman as the best reliever in baseball so far this year, I think that's the one bullpen on the American League side.
21:31
I'll, I'll throw the Astros in there, but without, you know, a timeline of potentially having Hader into October, I, I don't like that. So the Red Sox surprisingly are the one bullpen I trust.
21:42
Uh, if you're a Ryan Helsley fan, boy do I feel horrible for you, because this has been just a train wreck, uh, for the Mets here.
21:49
So, uh, o- of those 12 teams, Gil, I would say the Red Sox would be one, and then probably the Mariners are a close number two. Yeah.
21:56
The, uh, by the way, the Aroldis Chapman stats this year, like if, if anybody- [laughs]... if any casual baseball fan has lost track of Aroldis Chapman, he has never been better. Like, it's just insane- Yeah...
22:08
what he's doing this year in terms of hitless innings in a row. Literally, like, I went down a, a Cy Young, I'm not talking about the award, I'm talking about the actual Cy Young, deep dive the other day.
22:18
Uh, 'cause Cy Young has the record for the most consecutive hitless innings and the most consecutive hitless batters faced.
22:25
Aroldis isn't there yet, but, like, we're starting to get to that conversation the longer this goes. It's amazing. I, I'll give you a quick 30-second story.
22:34
So I was in AAA, uh, with Columbus, uh, with AAA for, for Cleveland. Uh, he was coming up with Louisville, and I was the first base coach, uh, at, at one of those innings he was in.
22:45
I've never been more fearful for my life- [laughs]... of, of right-handed hitters so late on 101, 102.
22:53
And, and Gil, the, the most fascinating part, this guy has kept himself in utterly premium physical condition to do what he does, to throw as hard as he does, for as long as he has. It is one of the modern myths.
23:06
I, I, I credit him so much for keeping himself in tip-top shape. And the best thing of all, guys, the reputation of him being a fabulous teammate could not be higher.
23:16
He's one of the greats, and boy, what an exclamation point right here at the end of his career. Absolutely. Ab- absolutely.
23:22
It's, it's, it's right around, I'll get the exact number here, but it's right around 50 consecutive, um- Wild... batters faced, something like that, without giving up a hit. Wow. Yeah, it's insane.
23:33
Well, Jensen, we appreciate the alacrity you bring to your segments every time. [laughs] That's right. Thank you so much. To the point. Thanks, boys. [laughs] Jensen Lewis @JLew50 on the old Twitter machine.
23:44
NFL, our bets, week one, those that we've made, those that we're considering to add next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Need a proxy? Well, you better get around to it.
23:58
I don't know if you know this, but football season starts tonight. You could join the world's biggest football contest with one trip to Vegas anytime before the season starts.
24:05
Trusted by thousands of players over the last nine seasons. Winners Circle Proxy Service helped clients win over $9.3 million last two seasons. Learn more about using a trusted proxy service.
24:14
Visit winnerscircleproxy.com/vsin. And of course, um, with the Circa contest, even if you lose tonight or tomorrow, you can still re-up So even if you have 10 survivors, let's say, tonight, you lose.
24:31
Let's just, let's just play it hypothetically. Then you re-up tomorrow, you lose again Friday night. You can still re-up for 10 more after that. So it's really easy, Gil.
24:39
You just go all 10 on the Cowboys tonight, and then you t- 10 on the Chargers tomorrow, and then see where you're at on Saturday. Kelly's gotta figure it out Besides down 20 grand. We get tweets of me in the book.
24:48
Bob Heening, "I have Gil yelling can I finish a sentence at over five-and-a-half this season, so it was nice to get one out of the way, one out of the way early week one."
24:55
Jody Boggs, "Wow, I can't believe I'm about to say this, but I wish I was more like Todd Wishnev and not give a blank what others think. Great first Megapod with Gil, Will, and Fez."
25:03
Shooter McGamblin, "Nothing says football's back like the return of the Megapod, and yes, once again I'll be tracking for the Dumbo of the Year Award.
25:08
Raheem Morris and Nick Sirianni open as your short shots, both at plus 150 respectfully." Uh, and Nick Shea, uh, "Todd and Gil bickering like an old married couple on the Megapod.
25:18
Football season has officially returned." Yeah, we have that in our, uh, in our DNA. I will admit that. Uh, and this is from, this is from... No, I already read that one, sorry.
25:29
Norm in Vegas, "One of the TV channels is showing the long line of vehicles of Eagles fans that have been lined up since before sunrise to get into the parking lot for tonight's game."
25:38
So they're already out there at the, uh, in Philly waiting for this game. And- Link's gonna be fired up... Link, primetime, "Yo, hey man.
25:46
Thrilled that the NFL's back and America's, America's excited to watch her team open things up against the champs." Oh, stop it. "I do declare in broad daylight in spite of Jared- [laughs]...
25:53
the Boys will shock the world and beat the Eagles outright. Take the points and shove 'em." Wow, Cowboys fans firing. And, uh, Kenny, uh, I'm not gonna read that.
26:02
[laughs] "Cade Horton shoves, uh, five hitless innings and Drake Baldwin goes 0 and 4 in the same game. Another successful Horton bump day," as Michael Manassano reminded us of last night. Mm-hmm.
26:12
Um, and David Chalifour says, "I got nervous when Kelly started off saying, 'I woke up with...'" [laughs] And Tronsky, "Hey Gil, happy football season to you today.
26:19
I'm thinking of trying to take advantage of quarterbacks that didn't play in the preseason. Maybe first quarter or first half unders for teams like the Rams or Falcons. Others come to mind?
26:25
Sorry about Eagle, but Amanda had a bone to pick." Yes, she did. She absolutely did. Um, oh, and last thing before we get to Tim, uh, we'll get to this afterwards.
26:33
Can we get Kelly's no unders list again for the start of the NFL season? Yes, we will do that. Yeah, we'll hit that. Yeah, we'll hit that next segment. We will do that. Tim Murray joins us now.
26:40
He is not only a host of Vsin Primetime, but he also does the College Football Tailgate show here on the weekends. And if you haven't heard yet, uh, this podcast is gaining traction big time.
26:51
It's the College Football Betting Podcast. He does it all. It's Tim Murray, everybody, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Tim? Trying to catch up to the Megapod, man. Yeah.
27:00
So we're, uh, we're trying to build an empire here at Vsin with some podcasts.
27:05
Um, which of the bunch, a- a- and in the moment, I know this answer will change, but just I'm curious, which do you enjoy the most if I asked you this right now at this moment? I like the Saturday show, man.
27:17
Um, I, I just, it, you know, growing up watching College Gameday, kinda making this our own gambling gameday, uh, leading right into all the contests.
27:27
As much as I love doing the pod with Humans and, you know, we got three episodes a week, I just, there's something about being on the air three hours before kickoff, leading right into it.
27:38
And, uh, once again, I know that, uh, five million people didn't watch my, uh, uh, picks last week. They were watching, uh, Mr. Corso.
27:46
But, uh, I like to think that maybe, you know, 3.1 or something like that were watching- [laughs]... the Tailgate show. But- Okay, 3.1... uh, I love that show, man. It's, it's a blast.
27:54
Hope folks, uh, enjoy it every Saturday starting at 9:00 A.M. Eastern.
27:58
Uh, your biggest takeaway from week one on the marquee matchups, Tim, or maybe not the marquee matchups, your, your Notre Dame Fighting Irish against Miami or, or somewhere else. What was your biggest takeaway? Sure.
28:09
I think my biggest takeaway is I was wrong on Alabama. I mean, you know, I'm not ready to sell Texas stock. I'll be honest, I was a little bit more, uh, tepid on Texas entering this year.
28:20
I ended up having some Ohio State. We talked about it on the Saturday show. I was just, I was surprised that everybody in the world seemed to be on Texas there on the road at Ohio State.
28:29
Not that Ohio State was dominant from an offensive standpoint, but certainly defensively I think that defense could be the best in the country, talk about Ohio State. But, uh, look, Gil, I was dead wrong on, on Alabama.
28:41
This is a team that I picked to go to the playoff, uh, in our guide. I didn't have any exposure on them to win the title, but I did pick them to win the title. Look, it's college football. Could they bounce back?
28:50
Sure, but that was, uh, that was pretty stunning to me. Not only did they lose, but they got punked. I mean, you look at post-game win expectancy, Florida State was 97%. That was not a fluke victory by Florida State.
29:03
So- Damn straight... you know, you gotta give credit where credit's due.
29:05
Florida State goes out, they get Gus Malzahn to run that offense, and I thought it looked very strong with Thomas, uh, Tommy Castellanos running things there, the transfer from Boston College. Tony White comes in.
29:17
They had defense flying around. But man, I don't know how you come away not disappointed in Alabama. Real quickly, Gil, I did attend Notre Dame, Miami. Um, didn't come away all that discouraged from the Irish.
29:29
I would like to see the offensive line play better, and I think they will. But man, did I come away impressed by Miami. They got some dudes, man. And I'll say this, that wasn't a finesse victory- Mm-hmm... by Miami.
29:41
They were the more physical team. They were the bully.
29:45
But I will say, everyone out there, if you have Miami exposure, what happened at the end of the game, complacency very close to the vest, play calling from Mario Cristobal.
29:56
He held the ball and kicked a 47-yard field goal, Gil, with a kicker who went two of seven a year ago- Yeah... at I believe Florida Atlantic. So Cristobal always makes you a little bit worried if you're backing him.
30:09
But Miami's got some dudes, and Carson Beck looked very comfortable on, on Sunday night down there in South Beach. Mario Cristobal doing everything in his power to, uh, to gack that game.
30:18
By the way, you see the reports afterwards or there were some reports where he's like, he didn't know Notre Dame had a timeout? Uh, I've heard that from- Yeah, there was a- Yeah...
30:25
there was a clip surfacing where he, I think, said like, "No way." I don't know if it was in referring to Notre Dame- Yeah...
30:31
calling a timeout with a minute and change to go, but, um, you know, Miami was the better team. I'll say this, the kid, Malachi Tony- Oof... ooh, buddy. That is, uh- Yeah... that's a special, special player.
30:41
Just 17 years old. Uh, he's gonna do some fun things this year, uh, down there with the U. And look, the ACC, give them credit, right? Clemson loses, Gil, but you've got Miami playing well, Florida State played well.
30:54
Could be a pretty interesting year in that conference when we all thought, and I'm, I'm guilty of it, I thought Clemson would win this conference.
31:00
Still think they will, but boy, that offense, a lot to be desired with the Tigers after week one. What do you like this week, Tim?
31:09
You know, there's a couple spots that, that intrigue me, but I'll go to Durham, North Carolina.
31:15
And I- I think this Duke-Illinois game is very fascinating, and I know there's a lot of people who are gonna look at this point spread and say, "Why is Illinois only three?"
31:26
Well, there's a difference in AP voters' minds and power ratings, and this is not an Illinois team that many people have in their top 25. Could they get there? Sure.
31:37
But you look at the year that they had a year ago, it was very impressive with Brett Bielema's squad winning 10 games.
31:43
But, you know, Mario, or excuse me, Manny Diaz has really done a good job in this underdog role, and this is a Duke program that...
31:51
Look, I'm not gonna say they're rivaling Oregon or Ohio State in NIL, but they went out and they pinpointed their quarterback, and they spent a lot of money to get Mensah to come in from Tulane.
32:02
They, they added some pieces in the portal. They had a, you know, FCS transfer from Harvard come in, and he had a big game in the opener against Elon.
32:10
You know, look, am I in love with Duke after being tied 10-10 with Elon in the first half? No. But I do think this is kind of a, this is what you'll hear, Gil. I imagine this will be the old pros versus Joes game.
32:25
This will be a very lopsided ticket count. Um, I like Duke here. Catching the three, I think they pull the outright upset, so I think this is a pretty interesting one.
32:32
And then another one that I was mad at myself for missing the seven, and we'll see if we get back to it. Arizona State goes to Mississippi State. This is a sneaky under the radar game. Night game down in Stark Vegas.
32:45
By the way, if you got a moment, go online and look up Arizona State trying to mimic Mississippi State's cowbells. It's, it's very cute.
32:53
[laughs] They, they got some assistant coaches, ding, ding, ding, ding, ding, ding, ding. I mean, that place is gonna be blaring cowbells all game long.
33:02
And Mississippi State last week, guys, it was a very, you know, uh, popular upset or, or dog play, Southern Miss.
33:10
And, and look, I expect Southern Miss to be better this year bringing in Charles Up, but Mississippi State dominated that game, uh, against Southern Miss last week, as you should.
33:19
But they were on the road, and they took care of business. A little bit of revenge.
33:22
Remember, last year Cam Skattebo ran for 262 yards against this Mississippi State defense in Tempe, and they had a big halftime lead, 27 to 3. I think the Bulldogs are feisty down in Stark Vegas.
33:37
So I'm waiting, hoping I get a seven, Gil. Right now, six and a half out there in the market. I think Mississippi State is very live on Saturday night down there in Mississippi.
33:48
Stormy on the sidelines in Stark Vegas this weekend as well, our own Stormy Bonatoni. Real quick- Yes... 30 seconds. Your favorite, we'll get you out of here on this, your favorite NFL bet of the week, week one is?
33:59
Cleveland Browns. Ooh, Cleveland Browns plus the points. I, I, you're sprinkling money on it? Betting five and a half at home. Okay. Gotta love those home divisional dogs in week one.
34:09
Give me the Brownies plus five and a half against Zach Taylor. What is he, 1-11 in the first two weeks over the last six years? I'm told that's not good, Tim. I'm good. I'm told that's not good. I think that's great.
34:19
Yeah. Tim Murray, everybody at 1TimMurray, the number 1TimMurray. Thank you, Tim, appreciate it. See you, guys. See you. Coming back with more football and more, next, Zach Cohen included, right here on The Numbers Game.
34:31
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. I don't know if you know this, Kelly, but fake cappers are everywhere- Mm-hmm...
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35:26
We get tweets @BeatingTheBook. Always appreciate the, uh, the feedback from everybody. Best listeners in the game. This is from, uh, Brosek1870, "Won't the pr- won't the proxies help in Grandissimo?
35:37
How many are locals that are putting in their own picks? Didn't someone get saved a couple years ago in regular Survivor?" It's a good point. Great point. It's a good point. Yeah. I'm guessing somebody's local, though.
35:48
Chance Copper Pot also- Yeah, that is a good point, though. I'm not gonna be as aggressive with my over a half, but I'm gonna still stick with it.
35:55
Chance Copper Pot following up on me saying the Gi- yeah, "But the Giants have to play the Dodgers seven times." He says, "So you're saying the Giants have seven games left versus the Dodgers.
36:01
So they just need to sweep them, and they can take the division? Sounds like a great opportunity. Go Giants." He really wants to make that Giants make the playoffs bet.
36:08
And this is from the numbers guys, and this segues beautifully into our next guest. He says, "Question for Zach Cohen." He says, "What model have you created the last couple weeks that have helped you master parenting?"
36:17
We bring in our own Zach Cohen, part of the, uh, Zach and Crack comedy duo on Thursdays. Uh, he is part of the glue that holds this whole operation together.
36:25
He joins us now, new father courtesy of the Progressive guest line. Zach, what about that? How's, how's parenting going? It's pretty good.
36:33
I just taught her the number one lesson in life, which is that there are fake cappers everywhere. [laughs] That seems a good... You managed to- There you go... mention that to her? Good.
36:39
Uh, you sent us a great picture yesterday of, of you and, uh, her watching tennis last night.
36:43
Well, she might not have been watching, but you, uh, you had her on you, uh, uh, as you, uh, as you watched tennis before she burped all over you.
36:51
I wanna just, uh, flash up the, uh, as we go to the semis at Flushing for the US Open, here are the men's odds to, uh, win the US Open. Jannik Sinner, minus 150, Carlos Alcaraz plus 140.
37:02
There's Novak at 11 to one, and Auger-Aliassime at 40 to one. By the way, Zach, did you catch on...
37:08
When we did, you, me, and Drew did the US Open Beating the Book, uh, preview pod, how many times I brought up Felix Auger-Aliassime [laughs] trying to get you guys to bite- [laughs]... and nobody bit.
37:17
Now, did I bet him to win the quarter? Of course I didn't. Ugh.
37:21
It was hard because he had just got rocked by Sinner in Cincinnati, and, like, that's the matchup we're gonna see right now, and it was just a really bad taste he left in our mouths right before we did that.
37:30
So I, I, I don't know.
37:32
It, this kinda came outta nowhere to me, and especially that win last round, it was really impressive because I, I thought he was returning really well against de Minaur, but I do think it's gonna be another lopsided win, and I, I, I kinda think that there's no value re- really to be had on this board because last time we saw- I agree...
37:45
Sinner- Yeah... face Alcaraz, it was, what? Minus 160. I'd rather not have to deal with that right now, and I, I think we might get a better price because of the way that match started. I am looking forward to...
37:55
Uh, I agree with you completely on the, on the, quote-unquote, "futures board," if we can call it that here before the semis, but I am looking forward to Carlitos and Novak tomorrow.
38:03
I, I wonder how competitive that might be. I think it's gonna be pretty competitive. I mean- Me too...
38:08
the pick I gave out on the site, I, I gave out Novak to win a set at minus 200, which is a little bit juiced obviously, but I, I do think that there's a better chance than, you know, 66% or whatever it is that he wins a set.
38:20
I, I mean, we've seen a pretty lopsided head-to-head with these two, uh, over the last couple years. I think Novak's won what? Four of the last five, and he's 3 and 0 against him on hard courts.
38:29
I just think the way he serves to that forehand side of Alcaraz, it kinda drives him crazy, and I do think that the way that he plays kinda takes all the joy out of Alcaraz's side, and I think that Alcaraz needs to be having fun and playing light to beat him.
38:43
Yeah. I, I'm with you. That's why I ask. I, I believe, I don't know for sure, but I believe I will have a bet in some form on that match tomorrow. Mine today is the over in the Pegula-Sabalenka semi.
38:54
Do you have anything today? Yeah, I have, uh, Pegula plus one and a half sets, and I took a little Pegula money line.
39:01
I, I just kinda think that we haven't seen Sabalenka play anybody in this tournament, and I wonder if that kinda catches up to her maybe in the first set of this match, where Pegula's been red hot this tournament.
39:12
I thought she looked really good against Krejcikova last round, and I, I just think it's gonna be a huge step up in competition for Sabalenka, who I also really don't trust in an unfriendly crowd, and I do think that everybody in that audience is going to really be pulling for Jessie.
39:26
So I, I wouldn't be shocked if Pegula can kinda keep a lot of balls on the court and play a little bit like we saw Coco play in that French Open final.
39:34
If we see another meltdown from Sabalenka, maybe it doesn't last the entire match, but I do think that Pegula can get on the board. I mean, it was 7-5, 7-5 when they met last year.
39:42
It was a really tight match, she just didn't get over the finish line. I'd be surprised if she doesn't win a set here. Here's the, uh, the futures on the, uh, women's side.
39:51
Aryna Sabalenka minus 105, Naomi Osaka plus 240, Amanda Anisimova plus 370, and there's Jessie at plus 850. Is there a bet on this? Do you have a bet on the Osaka, Anisimova match tonight?
40:03
You know, I have Anisimova plus 112, and I actually do think that plus 370 isn't bad considering she has had an edge over Sabalenka in their head-to-head and just beat her at Wimbledon.
40:13
I, I think that, uh, Anisimova's playing kinda with house money right now with the way that... You know, she lost 6-0, 6-0 in that Wimbledon final. She came out here, nobody expected anything.
40:22
She just went out and played an unbelievable match against Viga, and I do think that she has a slight edge, uh, against Osaka.
40:29
I, I think that the backhand for Anisimova's going to be the biggest weapon on the court there. Uh, she's 2 and 0 against her in her career.
40:34
Obviously, the matches came, you know, a long time ago, I believe 2022, but I just think that kinda gives you confidence going out to the court, and it's another match where I'm kinda handicapping the person.
40:43
I think Osaka really struggled with the crowd in Montreal when she played Victoria Mboko, uh, complained about it after the match. She was really sloppy during the match.
40:52
If this is a crowd that's very pro-Anisimova, which it should be in New York, I could see Osaka struggling a little bit with that.
40:58
Of course, only me, you, Drew, and, like, 10 other people will have that on a screen tonight because the NFL begins, Zach. I'm not sure if you're aware of this. Uh, Eagles and Cowboys. Eagles an eight-point favorite.
41:08
Uh, you have some thoughts on this. You did a good writeup on this on the website at vsan.com. Where did you land? I took Cowboys plus eight. Uh, it's not the highest confidence play for me.
41:18
I feel like it was, like, the lowest confi- like, the lowest possible threshold for me to make a play, and I maybe forced it because it's Thursday Night Football.
41:24
But I do think that the Cowboys are gonna be a little bit better than people think this season.
41:28
I know that the Barkley trade kinda leaves a bad taste in people's mouths with, with Jerry Jones and all that, but I thought they did well in that trade, honestly.
41:35
I think getting two first-round picks and a three-time Pro Bowler in Kenny Clark, that's a pretty good return, especially when you're talking about a guy you don't really wanna pay.
41:43
And I think that Clark's gonna be a really good fit in Matt Eberflus' defense is where, you know, he really tries to stop the run. I think Clark's gonna help them do that. Last year they struggled, uh, against the run.
41:52
I think it's gonna be much different this season.
41:54
So I kinda think they're gonna do a decent job against Barkley tonight, and I think that they have a pretty good group of defensive backs, so I, I trust them to kinda keep this Eagles passing game in check, especially with Philadelphia working in a new play caller, uh, a first-time play caller with Kellen Moore, now the head coach of New Orleans.
42:09
So I think this is a Cowboys team that with that explosive offense can definitely keep this game within one score. I, I, I think the Eagles will end up winning, but eight and a half is a lot for a divisional game.
42:19
Yeah, it's a lot, for sure. Um, all right, if that was, like, the lowest threshold you could find, uh, to make a bet, what are some of the, uh, ones that you have more conviction on?
42:29
Maybe tomorrow night in São Paulo between the Chiefs and the Chargers, maybe Sunday or Monday. What did you c- end up with? Well, I will add, I have CeeDee Lamb over 71 and a half receiving yards tonight. Oh, okay.
42:39
Uh, that's another one where those, that, those Eagles corners are great. But Lamb last year, when Prescott played, averaged about 83 receiving yards per game. I think that this number's a little bit too low.
42:49
I know that a lot of the talk is about kinda George Pickens coming in and stealing some of the targets, making this offense kinda go to another level.
42:55
But I do think that Pickens, part of his job will just be taking, you know, pressure off of Lamb. So I think there's gonna be less coverage rolled his way.
43:02
He's gonna have a lot of room to operate, and I think that that connection that he already has with Dak Prescott's gonna pay off tonight.
43:08
And I do think also, if the Eagles do end up winning this game by two or so scores, that means, you know, a pass-happy offense for Dallas trying to come back into the game. I like that for Lamb.
43:17
And then I will say, like, this weekend, I think my favorite play, I haven't put all of them in yet. The only one that I really like right now is Rams minus two and a half against the Texans.
43:26
I just don't trust that Houston offensive line, uh, against that Los Angeles defensive line.
43:31
I think the Rams defense is really gonna get to Stroud, and I think that the Rams offense, as long as Stafford looks kinda like himself, should kinda roll in this game.
43:40
I know that the Texans have a great defense, but I, I trust a McVay-led offense, and I think that that defense against Houston's offense, like I said, it's gonna be a huge mismatch.
43:48
See, this is, this is so much more prudent. I'll, I'll speak for Kelly. You, you'll correct me, Kelly, if I'm wrong in speaking on your behalf. I like way too much stuff week one. Like, and I know- Oh, yeah...
43:57
rationally. Sure. Yeah. Like, as I'm making my bets, and again, I've only made three so far, but I'm gonna add [laughs] to it 'cause I, I love some teaser legs also. I have way too much conviction, and I know.
44:07
Like, I'm the guy who's out here saying that we know nothing, right? Well, this, it- it's, I'm, I'm worried. Very worried.
44:12
Yeah, but you fire early in the season, and you hope you're, you're the right one and the book's the wrong one, right? Yeah. It happens. Yeah, if they hit, I'll be like, "See?" I know. Um, okay, so that's the only one.
44:23
Let me just ask you this. Season long, on the, on the doorstep of the NFL season, what is your season-long NFL bet that you are the most comfortable with that you've made?
44:34
I'm gonna, I'm gonna sound psychotic, and it's one that I added to the gui- [laughs] the 2.0 refresh guide. I took Justin Fields over 14 and a half pus- passing touchdowns this year. Oh, wow.
44:43
I'd be shocked if he doesn't hit that. That's less than one touchdown per game, and it's a Jets team that's going to be facing a lot of bad defenses this season.
44:51
So I, I, I think that Fields, you know, you could have your reservations about him as a passer, but he's playing, you know, for Ben Johnson's understudy at that offensive coordinator spot.
44:59
I think the offensive line's gonna be still a little bit better than people think, even with ABT out for the year.
45:04
And I just think that the connection he has with Garrett Wilson is going to lead to enough for him to throw for, like I said, one touchdown pass per game. He did it when he was the Bears starting quarterback twice.
45:14
I think that's such a low number that it's almost expecting him to either get hurt or be benched for Tyrod Taylor, and I don't really think that the latter's gonna happen. So hopefully he stays healthy. There you go.
45:23
A Justin Fields over bet. What could go wrong? I like it, Zach. [laughs] I like it very much. Betting Guide 2.0 out, of course, and Zach had a lot to do with that. Thank you, Zach. Appreciate it. [upbeat music]
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