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Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places. 0:53 [upbeat music] The numbers tell the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you. 1:04 It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. Vsin.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 189. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin. What up? Good morning. What up? 1:17 Not a mucho, man. We, uh, we get in studio, and we see already a spread in question. [exhales] The, uh, the WNBA on hiatus. That's right. For the, uh, the FIBA Women's World Cup. 1:31 Group D game between the United States of America and China. The US wins it by 33, 94 to 61. How about that? Man. The spread was 33 and a half. Yeah. China's, uh, China's w- they call her the, uh, the female... 1:49 Was that, was that her out at the line at the end? The female Yao Ming? Yeah, I don't know if they call her that, but that's what, uh- Zhang Zhu... us and the crew- Zhang Zhu... quickly started calling her this morning. 1:58 Uh, seven foot three inches tall. God, that's really, that's what she's listed at? She's not listed. I mean, she, she- She is... she looked very tall out there Uh, seven foot three. 2:07 She stepped to the line, China down 35 with just under, with just over one second left. [laughs] She hits them both, and if you had China plus the points, you're a winner. Oh, man. 2:19 Let me see if I can fit, uh, what was- Well- There's two thi- well, first of all- Well-... spread 33 and a half. Let me see if I can fit two, uh, betting cl- cliches in, in one sentence. 2:27 First of all, the spread was 33 and a half. How did they know? How do they know? Right? That's the first one. Yeah. [laughs] And the other one is- Vegas, man. Vegas... how do they know? 2:34 [laughs] And the other one is, uh, clearly she had money on the game. Yeah, clear. [laughs] That's the other one. Oh, man. We win by 33. Sorry you didn't get the money though if you laid, laid the points. 2:43 I'll, I'll add another one. Always get the best of the number. That's right. I, I don't really know if 33s or 32 and a halves were available, but always get the best of the number. Oh, man. 2:52 Poor Chris Foster, losing by the hook on a 33 and a half spread. Did he really? Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. But don't worry, w- he covered the first half. He covered it in the first half. USA covers there. 3:00 [laughs] On the show today, Paul Carr will join us, Premier League three-pack. Is he gonna f- is he gonna do this thing where he fades Hull City every week? I hope so. He's O and two in that department. 3:12 Uh, Christopher Felica, the Bear, college football and more from Fox Sports. Are we sure? Estamos seguros? A little later on the show, Kelly's got some, uh, questions to ask. Are we sure about? 3:23 And a little country clubbing, US Open, futures, as of tennis bets coming up here momentarily, and of course, it's Friday. You know what that means. Fezzik Fridays. 3:33 The only back-to-back winner of the Hilton Super Contest, Steve Fezzik, who I have been accused of multiple times in the last couple weeks of being too hard on. Listen- Um-... I spar with the dude. 3:44 He says some things that are just outlandish. I mean, yeah. You gotta give it to him. Does he deserve most of it? Yeah, prob- probably. Yeah, of course he does. 3:51 But we, uh, we, we've, we've beat up Stevie a fair amount the past few weeks. [laughs] Absolutely. By we, you mean me. I relish it. He has lots to talk about, though, later on the show. 4:03 Some, some, you know, some, sometimes he runs into them. Mm. Good points. Oh, yes, he does. Yeah. He absolutely does. Oh, boy, I spot a, I spot a Gil tennis bet there. I didn't see these this morning. Oh. 4:12 I see one I am tail- auto-tailing you on. Kelly's great at cherry-picking. Yesterday, one and one, two dogs. Again, a little small little tick. The disaster day was two days ago. That was not fun. Yeah. 4:23 Uh, today two more dogs, one on the men's side, one on the ladies' side at the US Open, which we go into the third round today of the US Open. Third round today, third round tomorrow. Round of 16 starts on Sunday. 4:35 Third round today. On the men's side, Alexander Bublik plus 148 versus the American Tommy Paul. Bublik and Paul had a great match here last year, which Bublik won. 4:45 Bublik's not having quite the same year he had last year, but I've got Bublik on the number at plus 148 against Tommy Paul. And then on the ladies' side, Taylor Townsend, let's go, plus 144 versus Diana Schneider. 4:58 So Bublik and Townsend, your two tennis plays of the day. 5:01 Sascha Zverev, the men's number one seed, in quotes, really should be Carlitos, but, uh, Sascha Zverev with a second straight five-setter deep into the night- Yeah... against, uh, Quentin Halys last night. 5:15 He is logging too much time on the tennis courts. That is not a portent of good things to come for Sascha. Yeah, that was, uh, caught that. Taylor Townsend, this big a price? Come on. I'm, I'm in. Come on. 5:26 Have some respect. Absolutely. Have some respect for Taylor. Oh, that's the one you're doing? Yeah. Oh, I would've bragged you go the other way. Okay. Really? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, but you're good at cherry-picking. 5:32 I am, yeah. Bublik and Townsend, your tennis plays of the day. Uh, Blue Jays, um, our Blue Jays play looking pretty good. Two and one here in the early going of, the very early going of September. Mm-hmm. 5:42 But it is a short month. Remember, we're just three weeks and change now left. Uh, most games played by any team in the whole month is 25. Blue Jays had 24. 5:49 Blue Jays, uh, after losing the first day, win their next two against the Guardians. 5:54 One of those was a Dylan Cease game, and remember that part of the, or a big part of the handicap on the Blue Jays was that it timed out beautifully for Cease And a bet on the Blue Jays at plus 23, 25, 'cause C's first start in the month was on September 2nd, so we're gonna get five starts out of him. 6:11 One down, looking good. Uh, Blue Jays right now in terms of these, and I have the Blue Jays at, Blue Jays by the way are two and one should read, uh, on the screen there. Um- My bad. Kelly Bidley. You got one job, Kelly. 6:25 Yep. Transcription. Uh, Blue Jays are two and ones, but they are in fourth place based on the circuit tiebreakers, which is where we have the Blue Jays or where I have them. 6:32 They would win the, uh, the two and one tiebreaker. So, uh, right now in fourth place, uh, behind the Yankees. Oh, just went off the screen. Y- [laughs] Right. So just- Yankees, Reds, and Rockies. Thank you. 6:43 Yankees, Reds, and Rockies. 6:44 Later we will look at, we were g- you were very anxious to do this category later, uh, b- last undefeated in the month of September, and by the time the night was over, we only were left with three undefeateds aft- after yet last night. 6:57 It looked a lot cooler yesterday when there- Yeah... was six still remaining. I, I figured that we wouldn't have the full six that I was saying yesterday, but man, chopped down to three. Chopped down to three. 7:06 But, but then there's s- some of these teams run into each other, so it's actually kind of interesting. Still wanted to talk about it. 7:12 We'll look at theirs, their next six games on the schedule, 'cause there's only three, three teams. Yankees, Reds, Rockies. Mm-hmm. We'll see what the prices are a little later on in the show. 7:19 Uh, college football, and week zero was kind of a dud to me, and I, I'm not buying into the people who are like, "Oh, North Carolina looked good." No, they didn't. TCU just was i- inaccurate quarterbacking. 7:29 Uh, absolutely o- like overall dud, 'cause I know where- Yeah... know where you're going here. You and I had dinner last night, and then I was locked in when I got home. Yes. 7:36 It was a phenomenal, uh, night of college football. First of all, uh, if you had the Buffaloes, which a lot of recent hosts did. Mm. Colorado Buffaloes, uh, they score- Saw Sammy was on them, yep... they score late, 7:48 they score late to go ahead of Georgia Tech, then Georgia Tech has a, uh, a field goal opportunity to win it, blocked. Colorado wins it outright. It w- plus- And a lot of folks had Colorado plus the points... 7:59 awesome play by Colorado, the old out and then up. Perfect pass. Yeah. 8:04 Great catch, great touchdown, and then it's, oh man, if you're on the Georgia Tech side, just the, I m- the, the guy, l- l- like we have the over- Quick matriculation, yeah... quick, yeah, quick matriculation. 8:14 You have the, the graphic overlay of the field goal d- uh, distance one. Yeah, I k- I know, I know someone grabbed him by the, by the shoelaces and he got tripped. 8:22 He, it, it looked like on TV that he hit that green line and just went toppling over. Like it was, he was one little arm tackle away from housing that- Mm-hmm... and you would've covered if you were on the other side. 8:34 Tough, tough week one beginning. If you had- We're great. Yeah. Yeah. The, of course, the, the biggest thing last night though was Rutgers- Ooh... going down to UMass, 8:46 and by going down I mean losing to UMass, and they do so, uh, as a m- as a massive favorite in this ball game. Uh, UMass snapping a 16 game losing streak, scored its biggest upset school history. They blast Rutgers. 9:00 It was not competitive. 37 to 21 in the season opener, and that was in Piscataway, by the way. Minutemen were 29 and a half point dogs, but completely overpowered [laughs] Big 10 school in every phase. 9:14 It marked just the program's second win against the current Power Four program, first coming against BYU in 2018, but BYU at that time was independent. UMass was just a four-point dog back then. 9:24 The last time UMass actually beat a true major conference team, 1978 against Boston College. That's crazy. 9:32 So you take your 29 and a half point spread, like this comes down to part, part of the conversation I had with Wishnev earlier in the week, and then with Mike Reardon from Razz yesterday, which is, does anybody know anything- Mm... 9:41 before the season starts with these spreads? Now according to On the Banks, R- Rutgers also, right, for the privilege of getting a patsy supposedly in UMass, they paid UMass- Oh, yeah... 9:52 $1.55 million to come over and play them. So- So you get your money and the win. Can I, can we talk about that part for a sec? 10:00 'Cause this is another one where it's, it's UMass, like, okay, just like everybody else, switching out a bunch of players, right? 10:10 Like I don't, I don't know that I'm running to pay these cupcake schools that you think you're gonna go get an easy week one win against when all these- It's a different, it's a different era... rosters turn over. 10:20 It's a different team every year. Yeah. Like they might look like a soft team four years out when you're making these contracts, but- Now you might, you might, that's a great point. It's an absolutely great point, Kelly. 10:30 You, uh, and, and you might be wondering, the 29 and a half point spread, where does that, or you, 29 and a half point spread winning outright, where does that rank in the annals of college football history? 10:39 Well, it's not even a top tenner. The- I, yeah... the top three, by the way, of all time, I can remember one and two. I have no recollection of three. 10:46 Number one, of course, when Visin first started, I'm not sure if y- this might be, might've been right when you got there- For me, yeah... Kelly. It was late, uh, it was obviously the fall of 2017. 10:56 Remember UNLV was a 45 and a half point favorite against Howard, and I remember all the UNLV fans clutching their pearls. Yeah. [laughs] I was going crazy for Howard. Howard. [laughs] Howard won at 43 to 40. 11:07 Kalen Newton was your Bison quarterback that day. That's the biggest upset out right n- in, uh, college football history. Number two was very memorable. Jim Harbaugh in his first year at Stanford, um, 11:19 Tavita Pritchard, now the Stanford head coach, was the quarterback. They broke USC's 35 win g- 35 game winning, uh, home streak. Yep... home, home winning streak. Okay. Remember that one. 11:30 Uh, it was a 40 and a half point spread in that game, and Stanford won at 24 to 23. That was in 2007. Yep. Those are two very memorable ones. Number three, I don't remember at all. 11:38 Syracuse beat Louisville as a 37 point dog, also in 2007, 38 to 35. I don't remember that one as much. Um, me neither. Um, and then you're just sort of, you're sort of thinking 11:51 what were some of the, w- w- last year, remember Vandy, some people might be like, "What was Vandy last year when they beat Alabama?" They were only a 23 and a half point dog. Okay. Vandy beat Bama 40 to 35 last year. 12:02 Um, 'cause remember Vandy was previously O and 60 against top five opponents when they won that. But really, you, you take all of those games, and if you think what's the b- what's the most significant... 12:13 upset in college football history, most people would still say App State beating- I was waiting for you to get there... Ap- Appalachian- Yeah... Appalachian State beating Michigan. 12:21 They were the n- that's the ninth biggest upset, outright upset, in the history of college football. It was a f- it was a t- a 33-point spread in [laughs] favor of the Wolverines. 12:31 Uh, App State won at 34-32, remember, punctuated by the legendary blocked field goal. Um, 12:37 but again, the first time an FCS team defeated a ranked FBS opponent, so that's probably still cream of the crop and the crop of the cream. Coming back. 12:45 [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. 13:00 Back on The Numbers Game, live from Circa Resort Casino, Downtown Las Vegas. Uh, it's Gil Alexander, Steve Fezzik here as well. Uh, don't forget, football is back. 13:09 VSiN Pro gives you everything you need to bet smarter this season. Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today. 13:14 Get instant access to our updated NFL betting guide, featuring post-preseason updates, week one betting systems, contest strategies, and fresh best bets from VSiN's experts. 13:23 You'll also receive our college football betting guide with previews of all 138 FBS teams, power ratings, proven betting systems, and best bets from VSiN's sharpest minds. 13:30 Your VSiN Pro subscription also includes daily best bets, real-time betting splits from DraftKings and Circa, AI p- prop tools, 24/7 video on the VSiN Watch app. 13:38 Get started for just 9.99 or save 50% with a VSiN Pro annual subscription. Sign up now at vsin.com/subscribe. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. It's Gil Alexander. That's Steve Fezzik right there. 13:48 Do you wanna bring up what you just brought up? No, but I'm watching the women's tennis. This gal looks very upset. I wish I knew who w- who she was. 13:54 I thi- I can't even recognize who the women are, but- That is the adorable Jasmine Paolini. She's a munchkin. Paolini feels like she has just been wronged [laughs] because she's very upset about something. 14:05 Well, she's just upset at herself. She's lost the first set 6-3. It's now 3-3. She's trying to get back in this match. Oh, is she j- what, th- the little racket mismanagement there? She's throwing the racket. 14:14 She's pl- It- Looks like Todd Wishnev when things are going poorly for him... uh, honestly, she's playing a better player right now in Sorana Cirstea. Well, there's that. [laughs] There is that. 14:23 All right, you wanna give your college football plays out now, sir? Yeah, let's do it. So, uh, tonight, uh, we are gonna go San Jose State, Eastern Michigan under 56. I'm actually gonna give you a handicap on this one. 14:32 Okay. I really like the under... Well, whenever there's a competitively priced teams, so the lines pick or close to it, 14:39 I always look towards under early in the year because I feel like both teams are like, "Let's not make the big mistake. Let's kind of..." There's a sparring early on process. I also, I watched both these games. 14:49 So Eastern Michigan was clobbering Sac State, and then what's this? 14:54 They threw a stupid pick six at the end of the first half to prevent them from just r- boat racing them, and I think they'll be more careful, Eastern Michigan will, with the ball. 15:03 San Jose State, I was very impressed with their defense against USC. 15:07 USC moved the ball well, but it was all, like, four little yard dink passes, and then the a- out- the athleticism of the USC receivers broke a couple tackles, and they got 11 yards on the three-yard dink pass. 15:17 But E- I'm sure Eastern Michigan doesn't have receivers like that, so 56 is such a high total. We're gonna go under 56. And now a theme for the next three plays, neutral site games. 15:29 Historically, and it makes some sense, when both teams are in an unfamiliar venue, they're playing in a new venue, just playing under has been very profitable. Is that true? You've run the numbers on it? 15:39 Y- yeah, Scott Steinberg did. Okay. So it's, like, 56, 58%, um, over, like, the last five years. I don't have the exact number. So we're on Baylor, Auburn under 60 and a half. That's in the Mercedes-Benz. 15:50 She's got the Mercedes-Benz under. Right. We got Wisconsin, Notre Dame- [laughs] What just happened?... under 46 and a half in Lambeau. And Louisville, Ole Miss, that's in Nashville. I don't know why. 16:02 We're gonna go under 55 and a half. Okay. All right, let me, uh, let me pop in some tweets here real quick. 16:07 Uh, Paul @DonGaucho4, "I'm in a square survivor pool, $20 entry, max three entries, and say there are 400 entries. 16:16 Is it positive, is it, is it plus EV to use one of my three entries on the Cardinals, assuming half the pool is on the Chargers?" No. Um, but it could be if it was, like, 70%. It, it, it's complicated. 16:29 You gotta run the numbers. I'll go back. I was listening to this guy named Gil Alexander, and he said the North Star of survivor is basically not to play the biggest favorite, but to play close to the biggest favorite. 16:41 And the more I think about this, the more I think that is Polaris indeed. Yeah. The North Star shining at, at, in Las Vegas at the 36th parallel or whatever we're at because, uh, people will overplay the Chargers. 16:54 So that's a good thought. "Okay, if people are overplaying the Chargers, let me maybe look away from that, and maybe I pivot to Jacksonville or Detroit," probably Jacksonville. 17:03 But I, I would say if you chart a path that you're playing one of the top three favorites n- but not the biggest favorite the first six weeks of a contest, it may not be optimal, but it probably won't be far off, and it certainly will have a plus EV versus the craziness other people are gonna play, where, you know, [laughs] there's gonna be people playing, like, uh, Tennessee and the Jets week one. 17:24 Yeah. And, and, like, you know what? The bottom line is if everyone else takes the Chargers, they're 81% to advance. If you're taking a pick 'em game, you're 50% to advance. 17:32 That's 30% you gotta overcome against all the other people the rest of the year. Uh, it's gonna be very hard to overcome a 31% deficit. And but I get it. If over two-thirds of the people took the Chargers, then you, 17:48 y- you could have merit playing some of these weird paths, but they won't. People are too cool for school. They're gonna be taking Raiders. They're gonna be taking Bengals. 17:55 They're gonna be doing all kinds of crazy stuff. All right. This is one of my favorite Stevie-isms, uh, why you're gonna lose listening to the mainstream media. Oh my God. Glasses off. I have never heard... 18:07 The, the, the last two weeks has been nonstop, "Oh, any player props you like" and one after another it's like, "Oh- I think Matthew Stafford's gonna have another great year. We're gonna go o- over 3,800. 18:20 And, yeah, and, and just, like, like, a lot of love for the Arizona running back. He's banged up, but I, I mean, look how good he looked in preseason week one. 18:28 [laughs] You know, 775, that's a really low number for a primary back. Just again and again, people are, are, are advocating overs, and it's, like, a terrible EV bec- just because of the injury risk. 18:40 And historically, you've hit over 60% playing unders on skill position players. It's not gonna be 60% going forward. 18:47 It's probably only gonna be 55%, but you wanna avoid overs completely for season-long bets, and yet everybody is reaching in, and they're all... I would say 80% of the recommendations are overs. Teasers, all the time. 19:00 Oh, yeah. Oh, that's a really good t- People all the time, they're, "Oh, look at th- " What's this one? "This Green Bay, Minnesota." Yeah, this one never gets mentioned. 19:06 Green Bay pl- Oh, I, I, I love that Green Bay teaser up to plus 7.5. Not to mention that, like, over the past 10 years, you know, what has happened to teaser odds in this town? 19:16 Oh, it's, it's insane how they've just skyrocketed- They're just-... the price. They've gone from even money at one point to minus 110 to minus 120, which was- Which kinda stopped there for a little bit. 19:26 That's right at the point where it's, like, break even to play a long teaser. Yeah. A long teaser is you're teasing six-point NFL through the three and through the seven. Once they went to minus 130, God- Ball game... 19:36 couldn't win. Ball game. You know? Yeah. Because, because think about it, when, when, when you're playing a six-point minus 110 teaser, that's, like, each leg, each individual leg is minus 260. I'm rounding here. 19:48 Don't kill me on the internet. 19:49 Um, if you're playing minus 120, each leg, it's like playing minus 280, but when you go to minus, um, 300, uh, w- when you go to minus 130 on the two-team teaser, that's like laying minus 300 on each leg. 20:01 You're not gonna win laying minus 300 with the extra six points. So unless you have, and, and there's PPHs, pay per head books, that have, you know, the, um, the minus 120 and even minus 110 pricing, that's great. 20:13 Play them there. But you can't just say tease something without a disclosure. FanDuel and DraftKings, they're charging, like, minus 135. You, you're not gonna win. 20:22 Back to, uh, Survivor for a second 'cause this just, I was just reminded of, Jason Lisk was in here, uh, last week, from Bet Labs. He's a big proponent of, of using some of your entries on the Raiders this week. 20:33 Do you like that idea? Y- Only because obviously the Raiders you're not gonna wanna use all year long, all right? So you gotta use 20 teams, and the Raiders are kind of one of those cusp teams that- Yes, they are... 20:44 you're like, "Well, maybe they're the 23rd-best team." Um, I don't think it's optimal. 20:48 However, if more than 50% took the Chargers, that's probably a, a good way to get at anti-Chargers, and you're never gonna use the Raiders again, so I'm, I'm fine with it. 20:58 It, it, it, i- again, all this stuff is, like, you have an entry that you put it in for $1,000. I think if you select the Chargers, your entry will be worth $1,020. 21:08 If you take the Raiders, I think it'll be worth approximately $1,000. It's, it's too close to call. It's so close it doesn't really matter. I'm curious about this, 'cause you, you said this was your seventh contest. 21:17 You just won at the Palms. Seven, this man has won. He's also, by the way, finished very high. I remember, what was the year? You were, like, 26 in Circa. People were like, "You suck." 21:26 Um- Oh, oh, yeah, I, so I was in, in third place on Thanksgiving in Circa Millions. Right. 21:32 This was three years ago, and this is the Greg Jones year where I was like, like, when, when Greg won the Survivor, and I piece of hi- a piece of him. 21:38 So I wound up, you know, w- we got there to the finish line, Greg did, and I was, uh, aboard for the ride for, like, 20% of or whatever it was, 23%, and I finished 21st in Millions. 21:48 There's 5,000 people, and s- people are like, "Ugh." [laughs] "Fez sucks at this." You lost a step. "He was in third place." I, a- and I was, like, literally, like, 53% over the last six weeks. 21:58 [laughs] I mean, it's hard to beat 5,000 people. Time has passed him by. Now, so, now, here's my question, though, that I wanna ask you. 22:04 So you've been in, I mean, at this point, you might even say hundreds, plural, of contests. Maybe? 22:10 Uh, I, well, you know, it's a great question because people say, "Well, he, he, he's played tens of thousands of contests," and they're just, it's not like poker tournaments. No. They're, they're, I play the Westgate. 22:19 Um, I try to play Last Man Standing, but I forget to, I forgot to put in my picks one year. That's what happened to me. That's what happened. And I play, and I play Circa. 22:25 So you just answered my question, 'cause that was gonna be my question. Have you ever missed a deadline? Yeah. And for me it was Stations. You did the same thing. Same thing. They do- I didn't know you did the same... 22:31 because the $25 entry times four, uh- You get one free... and you get one free entry. One free. So th- so, so basically I took 120, $100, and I set it on fire. Really, 100- Me too... probably $115 in EV, and- Yeah... 22:43 well, it's really $200 in EV, but because people are, you know, that's a, that's a really weak field. Um, I'm a huge proponent, though, of that, it's a great contest. 22:51 If there's one contest to enter- It really is a good one, yeah... and, and you do college and pro, I'm not a big believer in diversification early in that. 22:57 Just shove with your best play, because you gotta t- go over there, and you, you d- you can't, you can't put your plays in on the app. How much is your time worth? How much is gas worth? Totally. 23:05 As an example, I'm just driving into the strip. What's this? Flat tire. Foom, foom, foom, five, four, five, four. Oh, you had a flat tire yesterday. 23:11 I used to have a friend, Steve Wagner, we'd play Cout, Coup, Coup de Grace or whatever that, that, that French, the Milborne, the card game. And whenever, and, and he'd love to take the flat tire. 23:19 He's, he go, "You got a flat tire," foom, flat, flat, flat, flat, flat, flat. [laughs] What's, what's happening? Wait. "Coup Ferre," I said. Wait. "I've got the un- All right... impenetrable one." 23:26 We'll get back to the flat tire after the break. [laughs] But, but with Millions and Survivor, though, do you, one alarm, two alarms, three alarms? What do you do? 23:33 Um, I'm a max, I'm gonna do the 10 for, for, for the Millions. No, no, no, but your a- your alarm, you set an alarm so you get the- Oh, oh, yeah, two a- you gotta have two alarms. Gotta have two. 23:40 Two hours before, one hour before. All right. More Fez. We'll talk about a flat tire. He's got a lot more to talk about. Coup Ferre in Milborne. [laughs] I don't know what's happening. 23:47 Steve Fezzik right here on The Numbers Game. Coming back. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. 24:00 Don't forget about the Sharp Plays, unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting info, and alerts directly from the pros. 24:07 Scan the QR code on your screen for more at sharpplays.com. Gil Alexander, Kelly Billings, we get tweets. Been in the book. Larry Fresh Oh, he's playing, he's playing on the no guy. 24:18 He said Darryl Strawberry's doing coke, we, uh, make jokes about him. Michael Irving is doing coke, we make jokes about him. Nick Kyrgios is doing coke, we, uh, obviously make jokes about him. No. No. 24:28 Actually, I gotta let you do it every time. [laughs] I gotta let you do it every time. 24:31 Shooter McGailin, "I was too young for Pitt over West Virginia, the ones I remember," college football upsies, "uh," I think- Ah, shooter... Baker Mayfield lost to Iowa State laying 31 and a half. 24:40 I think you're right about that. Yeah. And I remember a top five Wisconsin team," he says, "losing to Illinois." Torch D, the one who put the satin in your panties says, "Pre-flop Colorado money line plus 220 yesterday. 24:50 There's 40 seconds left in the game, Georgia Tech getting the ball back down 14-13. I said screw it. Took all my potential profits minus $20 and put it on Georgia Tech plus 440. 24:59 My net position on no vig at this point was Georgia Tech minus 534.2%, zero dollars to win $900." Wow, that was a, that was crazy at the end there. Gr- great work? 25:10 I don't, the final part was- I don't know what part [laughs]... a little, little too much to convey I didn't know what you were going for. Yeah. Hey, great job. Great arbitraging. 25:17 Steve Cohen, @TheSteveCohen21, Mets owner? VSIN program director? I don't know. Who knows? Says, "Coming into town to put in my Circus Survivor entries. Do I get one additional entry or go to Ito for dinner?" 25:28 Oh, great call. Ooh, man. What do you do? You get one extra survivor entry to go to Ito for dinner. I would say go to Ito for dinner. I didn't wanna answer this question. Go to Ito to dinner, for dinner. Yep. 25:40 Telling you. See- But make sure they set you up in the poodle room afterward, too. Enjoy the poodle room. Yeah, enjoy the poodle room. Th- that is, do you know there's a m- that's a membership club. 25:49 You remember, do you remember how packed it was when we were in there? Not very. It was Thursday night at Fountain Blue. Not very. Fountain Blue Friday and Saturday days do very well. 25:57 Pretty sure the other five days of the week it's a bit of a struggle. Mark Gupta, this is more of a question for you than for me. 26:02 He says, "Hey Gil, for your country club and segment, any early leans on the President's Cup? Um, at Medina where I'm a member, u- unusually hot and humid early September here. 26:10 USA heavy favorite, maybe wait for match-ups." What would you say, sir? That's a great question. Uh, the problem is the, the, the, how the question started, early leans. 26:18 The early bet was to take USA, like, three weeks ago. A- that, that, that number is just getting steeper, steeper, steeper. 26:24 I think it's, like, minus 400 the last time I checked it, but that was even probably four or five days ago at this point. It, it would be USA or nothing. I think you're just waiting for matches. 26:32 I, I, I'll speak for myself, I'm just waiting for matches at this point. And finally Bet Your Boots Off, apropos the Jardiance interview [laughs]. "A&G should have a blind taste test with the bottled waters. 26:44 I'm taking the under on all contestants." I don't get the under thing. I don't get the under thing. If you're doing a blind, a blind taste test. Except that is now the third tweet I remember getting about it. Oh, yeah. 26:53 A blind taste test with the bottled waters. 'Cause people don't b- people don't believe we, I can discern the difference. Oh, I can if it's Fiji or Arrowhead, to the, to the better. 27:00 You know what, here's where I'll keep it real, Gil. I like to sit up here and make grand statements on what I believe about these bottled waters. 27:07 Do I really believe I'd be able to identify each one in a blind taste test? Eh, I dunno, probably not. And I'm glad you brought up the Jardiance interview, uh, 'cause we couldn't remember her name earlier. 27:16 Diana Colon- Yes... was the, was the original Jardiance lady It was awesome. And our director Larry Mir reminds us. He was like, "Do you guys remember how depressing that interview got?" 27:24 [laughs] And I was like, "No, kind of." [laughs] And he says she wrote the song- Yeah... and didn't get any payment for it. Right. And then Jardiance has gone on to have, like, 75 billion commercials after her. 27:35 'Cause she was, like, a do everything- Yeah... to be famous person, right? She was, like, she was a singer, actress, commer- you know, commercial actress. Yeah. She had, like, a cooking show I remember we found. 27:45 She had, she had a great attitude about it. Awesome attitude. But now you are trying to get the no guy. What are, what are you setting the odds at for us getting him on the show? Uh, w- what'd I just tell you? 27:54 I emailed him about 30 minutes ago. I'm gonna say two to one he's booked by the end of the show. Give me plus 200. Okay. Maybe a little longer. It's F- it's a Friday, Labor Day Fri- you know what? 28:03 I'm gonna reset those odds. Plus 350. Friday on Labor Day weekend, he might not be. [laughs] If, I'm gonna say minus 200 by the time we're here on Monday I have him booked for next week. 28:13 It's gonna be as hard-hitting as my Jay Cohen interview, I promise. I promise you that. No. [laughs] Uh, ladies and gentlemen, it's time for Are We Sure? Let's go. 28:23 [upbeat music] You think you know what's going on in the sports betting world? Are you sure? I'm positive. Gil and Kelly tackle the hard-hitting questions on another exciting edition of Are We Sure? Estamos seguros? 28:39 All right. Swear Kelly, uh, has things on his mind. He's asking me if, are we sure? I just love the music at the end there. Was that a little dance there? Uh, it's, it's like the Dan dance. 28:47 Is it what, when- This is the Danny dance... when you dance, do you do fingers? No, I don't at all. Oh. But this is like the Danny dance, remember? Oh, Danny Higgins. [laughs] Danny at the, Higgins at the bar. 28:54 Danny, he's still talking about you. Oh, yeah, yeah, Ben. Oh, a- and, and I got the call the other day. Two days ago I got the call. From? The Ben Wilson. Oh. For Kev- kelly Bidlin's great real- realtor services. 29:09 Remember, I g- I, he- Oh, 'cause Ben-... that's his house... Ben needs a client... that I've had, I've, I've set up two VSIN people to live in. So he needs a new tenant and you're his guy. He, he needs a new tenant. 29:18 He- Did he kick you back anything for it or no? No, absolutely not. He di- we even went out to dinner one time. He didn't buy dinner or anything. 29:23 Ben Wilson famously just walked in while Danny was a tenant because he's Ben Wilson, and Danny, a former police officer, might have had a gun. That could have gotten ugly. That could have gotten really ugly. Yeah. 29:35 I, it actually scared me. When he f- Danny first told me that story- Bro... it scared me. You know Ben. Ben's like, "Whoa, I'm so, what do you mean?" Nice kid. Yeah. [laughs] Wisconsin family, everybody's so nice. 29:46 I love you, Ben. Uh, we love Ben. I, it was great catching up with him. Okay, Gil, are we sure- Yes... we will see former professional football players play- Oh... college this season? I just asked this of Chris Fallica. 29:57 I genuinely do not know. I am not sure. No, I'm not sure we will. It is, it, I cannot wait to see how this plays out over the next, when does LSU play? Is that, is that tomorrow or this Sunday? Yeah. Oh. 30:08 Oh, that's right, it's a- That's, I got screwed up 'cause of Labor Day weekend... it's the, it's the, it's the last college football only weekend. 30:13 So the one, um, you know, like, one of these guys, like Dequan Wright said after the hearing yesterday, like, he, he's, he's ready to go, but working it out with a team he plans on playing. Plans on playing. 30:24 So we'll see what LSU and Lane Kiffin end up doing. I, I'm with Chris, man. What about, what about Daijahn Love? Is he ready to go? Is that the, is that the Niners guy? [laughs] I think he's ready to go too, yeah. 30:32 [laughs] I don't think anybody's playing him, though. LSU game, by the way, is on, uh, yeah, it's tomorrow. Okay. Mm-hmm. Uh, are we sure CJ Carr should be the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy? 30:44 I'm not sure about that, that he should be the favorite. S- I mean, some might feel that way. Um, but I, you know, he's not that big of a favorite either, right? No. 30:53 Like Arch Manning is right behind him, plus difference is $7 on, excuse me, plus, yeah, 7-1 on CJ Carr, plus 750 on Arch Manning. Darian Mensah of Miami, 11-1. Dante Moore of Oregon, 11-1. 31:07 No, I'm not sure he should be the favorite. My mind is never gonna be able to get used to this college football thing with like the, just the Dante Moore example, and the fact that we don't talk about it more. Hmm. 31:18 That this guy could've been like the second overall draft pick, and he's like, "Nah, I'm gonna go back to Oregon." Go back to school. Remember we were arguing for- What do you mean I can-... 31:25 we were arguing for two months... well, I mean, if you're a th- I mean- About him or Mendoza going one. Like, we didn't know. But could I... 31:30 If you're a college football big time quarterback and they're giving you mil- at this point, you're making millions of dollars, let's be honest. You're making a couple mil, let's say, conservative. 31:39 I don't know how much they're making. Right, yeah. But we don't know exactly, but let's say it's a couple mil, and it's still college campus with girls. Why rush it along? 31:47 I'm like this is, okay, so like I actually- I know, I know injuries. I get it, but still. No, no, no. I actually think you're thinking the more logical way. Yeah. 31:53 I think Dante Moore probably was as w- I just can't im- like the whole goal of your life, right, was to make it to the NFL, and it's like it's right there. It's a whole, it's a whole new world. It's a whole new world. 32:03 All right, are we sure Miami, the University of Miami, should be minus 146 to win the ACC in a 17 team conference? I don't appreciate your tone. [laughs] Just can't believe it's on. 32:18 Tell me, this seems very, you seem very angry about this. Nobody's got a shot. It's like he went to FSU or something. 50 to 1. Uh. Wow, that got more depressing. I, I am sure that, uh, they should be minus 146. 32:29 I apologize to you, but I am sure. Even if you broke it down by unit, they have the best offense in the ACC. Not only Mensah of course, but Malachi Tony, the headliners. They got the best defense in the ACC. 32:41 They, they lose Bain and Mesidor on the defensive line, you know what they do? Eh, we'll just replace them with these guys who are top shelf. All of their corners are back. They got the best defense. 32:51 They got the best offense. They got the best defense. Yes, they should be minus 146, and there's nobody else in the conference that is like that awesome. Darnell, leave this graphic up. 33:00 Are we sure Florida State after winning a game should move from 35 to 50 to 1? Eh, maybe. [laughs] Yeah, maybe. [laughs] I'm with you on that one. Maybe we are. All right, moving on. NBA now. 33:11 Are we sure Kawhi Leonard will make the Raptors a real contender in the Eastern Conference? Well, define real. They can make the Eastern Conference finals. If you had said semifinals, I would've said yes. Okay. 33:24 Eastern Conference finals? Th- I mean, they're a contender to make the finals. I don't know that they're a lock to make the finals. Yeah, I guess it w- the broad definition of contender, yes. Yeah. I'm with you. Yeah. 33:34 Cop out. Eh, whatever. Good answer. Yeah. Um, the- By the way, the point, the point we didn't make about that whole Kawhi thing yesterday is 33:40 the, the NBA really fixed Steve Ballmer in the s- in the sense that the, only the player can bring it to arbitration. And so when, so when Kawhi quickly was like, "I accept responsibility. 33:50 Sure," uh, the $700,000 shirt and then nothing else happened to him, it boxed out Steve Ballmer from having arbitration. He would have to go through the court system. Yeah. Dude, it's incredible. Yeah. 34:01 I don't, I, I know I texted you this right away. I was listening to, listening to ESPN guys talk about it, so Windhorst and stuff, and it was... Or no, I'm sorry. I was listening to Paolantori finally. Yeah. 34:12 Uh, uh, w- after, after it came out and Paolantori and the guy- Take it, take it as victory lap... and, and like, n- like was none of that, right? They were just reacting to the story. Mm-hmm. 34:20 And they said, they're the first ones to, that I've heard say this, and it was what I... Do you remember what I texted you right away when it came down? 34:27 I'm surprised it wasn't worse of just wh- of what the, the punishment for the Clippers and Steve Ballmer was. And I know it's historic. I'm surprised it wasn't worse. Hmm. Probably doesn't take a team away from the guy. 34:38 But that was a proper, proper harsh punishment. More are we sures on the other side? Sure. All right. I am sure. It's the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. 34:45 [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. 35:05 Most people think sports betting is about picking winners. Nope. Ungambled, built on a different idea. 35:09 Matched betting and arbitrage is a tool that teaches you how to use sportsbook bonuses and promotional offers to capture value whether or not your side covers, and Ungambled backs it up. 35:18 If you don't turn a profit on your bankroll in eight weeks, they refund your membership. To learn more, start with the free guide at ungambled.com/vsin. That's ungambled.com/vsin, and use promo code VSIN for 10% off. 35:30 Bet sharp, look square. Kind of, uh, Drew Tabor, CEO of Ungambled, come on the show while you were gone, Kelly. How was that? It was all right. Oh, cool. [laughs] Well, go check them out. [laughs] Ungambled.com. Yeah. 35:45 Uh, I don't know. Uh, Drew wasn't here for a full review, otherwise I would give you the, the, the Drew, the Drew Maxwell review. Uh, let's see here. 35:52 On Twitter, Tronsky, "Hey Gil, are we sure that this whole snafu with LSU isn't being blown out of proportion with the number of athletes and lawsuits around the country? 35:59 Couldn't the NCAA have made this a lot easier by granting a waiver to those students being left out of the new 5-5 rule?" Uh, Tronsky, it's a great point. 36:06 I mean, it's not outlandish because they're allowing this starting next year. So these kids do have a point. Mm-hmm. Right? It's like, "Hey, why, why are we being boxed out of this?" 36:16 I mean, that's the whole genesis of all of this. Yep. Uh, y- maybe they are Tronsky. Maybe they are. Uh- Well, w- but what's, what's Tronsky's solution there? Just, just let them go? Yeah. 36:26 Like, let's just let these kids play? Let them play. Yeah. Let them play No, it's, it's, I think we are making a too big of a deal about it. This goes back to our NBA conversation yesterday, right? 36:34 There, there is definitely a lot of these coaches, conferences, schools that are just upset that it's Lane Kiffin and LSU scooping up these bi- these bigger names quickly, right? Yeah, probably some of that. 36:46 Jared still, "Here's my contribution to the bottled water conversation, entirely how I feel about Dasani." Oh, he said [laughs] he's be- me being waterboarded. Gross, is this Dasani? 36:55 [laughs] We, we have, we have to actually, we have to actually... So we, we're thinking about this. So next Mon- this coming Monday is the last meh Monday. 37:06 C- I mean, and no offense to the guest that we have on [laughs] Monday. I shouldn't say it that way. But what I mean is it's the last pre-football Monday. Yes. Right? And it's Labor Day. 37:14 Half of you guys are gonna be at home- Half of you guys are doing your stuff on Monday... cooking out, not listening, not caring about me or Gil at all. That's right. Which offends me. Yeah. 37:21 See, he's already getting upset. Yeah. He's already g- I'm gonna cry... tears are coming. 37:25 So we, we were thinking about w- and I think you had a great point off air, which is we can't line up five waters at the same time and test them- Yeah... because the palate becomes sort of, 37:38 I don't know, uniform at that point. But if we- Yeah, it's just gonna taste like water... but if we do a head- Going forward... if we do one head-to-head each hour, that's the proper way to do it. Okay, that's the plan. 37:47 Okay. That's the plan on Monday. All right. Let's do it. People- Start at 7:15. Oh. The great, the great water test of A Numbers Game 2026. All right. Hey, Chris, Chris Foster has fired away. 37:58 FIBA World Cup is going back after getting, uh, beat by the hook earlier this morning. Germany plus seven and a half taking on Spain. [laughs] He's in. Just started. Chris Foster loves betting. Love that kid. 38:11 He really does. Here's the thing, if you missed it earlier. Team USA beats, uh, China by 33. The spread was 33 and a half. How do they know? How do they know? I love that you started [laughs]... How do they know? 38:22 Vegas, man. Vegas. Vegas. Whoa. How do they know? Those guys are good. Uh, but uh, the female, Yao Ming, as she's referred to, um- Is that real? Is that a real name? I couldn't tell the two... 38:33 she knocked down two free throws. China was down 35 with 1.6 seconds left or something like that. 38:38 She knocks down, coolly knocks down two free throws to make the, uh, final margin, um, 33, and Chris gets locked out of his minus 33 and a half. On like the final minutes wh- I, I was kinda scrambling back there. 38:51 I'm getting ready for the show and everything, and they're talking about this as it's co- you know, getting down to the wire, the crew is. And Matt Hicks, one of our fine directors here, uh, was talking about how she... 39:01 Like, she's just constantly living at the line. And I'm like, w- once he said that, I'm like, "What is, like USA like intentionally fouling her?" 39:08 Like, that seems bizarre when we, the, the talent gap, uh, is what it is, right? You know, I didn't realize she was a full seven foot three. Seven foot three inches tall. Zhou Ying is her name. Zhou Ying. Wow, man. 39:22 Hope I'm pronouncing that okay. Back to are we sure. What do you got? Are we sure, we got a few more left. Okay. Are we sure the Dodgers and Yankees should be the favorite to meet in the World Series? Okay. 39:31 This is an interesting question because while I believe it's wide open, and while I believe... W- while I would not bet on that matchup, right? I would bet, as I mentioned the other day, Red Sox versus Phillies. 39:43 Yes, I am sure that those two teams should be the actual favorites. Okay. 39:49 That doesn't mean that I would, that I think they're l- they're both likely, or either is likely to get to the World Series 'cause the nature of the format is the Yankees are gonna have to play a best of three if they don't overcome the Rays. 40:00 I think they're down three games right now in the AL East. And the Dodgers are in a dog fight with the Braves for the number two seed right now. They're both three wins behind the Brewers. 40:10 Remember, it's only the, the two top seeds that get the bye in the first round, so even the Dodgers might be subjected to a best of three. So it's a different question. Do I think they'll get- Right... there? 40:20 Either or both, no, but they, yes. But, but, but yes, they both still should be the favorites based on them being the best teams. And that... 40:28 Okay, and I think you just answered it, but I feel like one or two people out there is gonna be asking this question. That is just Gil Alexander would have them as the favorite. Not the Gil Alexander Sports Book, right? 40:37 'Cause some people are gonna be like, "Well, everybody comes and bets-" Right... the Dodgers and Yankees." Right. But, but the- They're just the two favorites... but the best of threes complicates that. Mm-hmm. 40:46 So I guess mathematically, I don't know. I mean- Oh, okay... 'cause the, the, the, the best advantage you can have is missing that best of three. Right. And that's a massive advantage. It is huge. Yeah. 40:59 So I, I don't know. I mean, they're the best teams per co- per div- per league, pardon me. [laughs] Best teams per league. But the best of three complicates things. All right. 41:10 JT tweeting in, @speedtoburn725, and you guys, you guys are always welcome to tweet me, uh, are we sure suggestions. He, uh, tweets at me, "Are we sure that Arch Manning can play quarterback?" 41:22 Yeah, I think we're pretty sure. We're coming around. He was really good at the end of last year. Yeah, he, uh, struggled a little bit at the beginning, though. Yeah. Yeah, he was at the beginning. 41:28 I th- I think JT's trying to get at is this another Bryce Young situation coming our way. Oh, no. Stop. That four, four years that- No, I don't think so... I'm still not gonna be sure. No. Okay. Love the questions. 41:38 Uh, are we sure, here's a Kelly personal one, are we sure Anthony Richardson never starts in the NFL again? He got na- named number two on the depth chart for the Colts. 41:47 I don't know about never, so I'm not gonna say I'm sure it's never, but it's, it's trending more that way than ever. Let's put it that way. I really hope we get to see him. 41:56 That, that Jameis Winston 30-30 season, one of the greatest seasons I've ever watched of football. I feel like Anthony Richardson has that potential. You love Anthony Richardson. I do. I, I- Are we sure? 42:06 I genuinely, this is a serious moment, I genuinely hope his eye is okay. Yes, seriously. I don't think we've made enough of that. No. Yep, you're right. 42:12 Are we sure the Cardinals or the Dolphins will have the worst record in the NFL? I am sure, and you, you didn't even have to say the Cardinals in that sense. Yeah. I think it's, I think the Dolphins. 42:23 If the Dolphins do not have the worst record in the NFL this year, it's a pretty big upset. They might just be that bad. Three and... I, I would go under on three and a half. I really would. All right. 42:34 Andrew Maxwell chiming in. Are we sure- The Kroenkes will improve the Angels. Yeah, I am. Okay. I mean, uh, first of all, you could insert any name besides Dan Kroenke. 42:45 Anybody who made that purchase- Was gonna improve-... is going to improve on Arte Moreno Yeah. That's a great call. Arte Moreno had Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani for six years together. They got nothing to show for it. 42:58 And you're in the best market in the... I mean, you argue, I mean, obviously argument, some people aren't LA fans, but you're obviously one of the best, if not the best market in the entire country. 43:07 I know it's Anaheim, it's not, uh, I know it's Orange County, it's not LA proper, but come on. Absolutely they will improve on this. All right. Well, that's the end of Are We Sure? Thanks to our title sponsor. 43:17 Oh, wait, that's still available. Maybe a water brand. Sponsored by no one. Yeah. Open sponsorship opportunity here. Gave that horrible contract to Rendon. We can go on and on. Wanna hit the club? Yeah, let's do it. 43:28 Hit the club. [upbeat music] Speaking of Ben Wilson, his family. Oh, here's a look ahead at his wedding. [singing] When is the Ben Wilson wedding happening? One year away. 43:42 You know what one of my big regrets from this summer is? Missing Jason Weingarten's wedding. Yeah, I really wish you would've attended, too. I am, we are really upset about that. That would've been nice. 43:52 I think Jason's a little offended, by the way, but I'll have to make good with it. Really wanna go to Ben's. I don't know if I'm gonna make the cut. He kind of warned me. Limited. Big families. Big families. 44:02 And of course, of course, it's a nice location. Oh, really? Where is it? Uh. Oh, no, you can't say? Uh, yeah, I don't wanna say. Okay. Title sponsor. I don't wanna say. But it's a nice location. Paparazzi might show up. 44:11 Sounds like a great wedding. Helicopters might show up. Sounds like one that definitely has an open bar, and I'd have a great time. [laughs] Only two tennis bets today. 44:19 Uh, we split on the dogs yesterday, so very small gain. Uh, Bublik on the men's side, +148 versus Tommy Paul. Taylor Townsend +144 versus Diana Schneider. Want to quarters? Love it. 44:29 Let's, yeah, let's hit some updated quarter prices. We're a little short on time here. We can clean this up later, though. All right. Men's side. Yeah, let's hit first quarter. Um, uh, Sa- Done... 44:41 the, Sascha Zverev has- [laughs] Sascha Zverev has played two long five setters into the night, but he's winning that quarter still. There's, there's, uh, none of those guys is gonna topple him in his quarter. 44:53 It's pretty smooth at this point for Sascha Zverev going. Okay, and just a heads up, these are currently down as matches have started, but these are what the odds were this morning for the quarters. 45:03 Let's put it this way, anybody who could've beaten him, Hodar, Musetti, de Minaur, Aliz, none of, they're all gone. So at -400, it's still his quarter despite the, uh, the toll on his body. 45:14 [upbeat music] Oh, is that all we got? Okay. Oh, yeah, well, we gotta go to break. We'll go [laughs] do more, we'll do more after Fezzik, I guess. Yeah, yeah. We'll check back- Later on in the show... 45:23 the last segment, yeah. Because Steve Fezzik is next. Boy, the timing was great there, huh? Yeah. One of our finer moments. Steve Fezzik, the star of Fezzik Fridays. I'll try to be nicer this week. Try. 45:34 Next on the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
