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Sep 6, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | September 6, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | September 6, 2024
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44:43
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story. They always do. One of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. I heard you're taking us in. We appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander.
0:19
That right there is Kelly Beidelman, producer number nine right here. That's right. So much more than a producer. How you doing, man? Football. One and oh, Gil.
0:28
Millions bets, uh, what could go wrong the rest of the season? Oh, wait, you had, you had the Chiefs in millions? Yes, I did put the Chiefs in millions. Oh, you put in millions early? Yeah, I put millions in early. Oh.
0:36
Week one, I did. Kelly be- I did... screen- I wish if they had updated it midweek, you could screenshot and be like, "There I am." That's right, number one. Number one. Champion.
0:44
I don't know why I put up like 11 first, but then- I have no idea what you're doing... number, number 11, yeah. No idea. Good for you.
0:48
One and O for Kelly Beidelman, and you have a Xavier Worthy Offensive Rookie of the Year ticket, do you not? I do, I do. Yeah, yeah. Oh, that's off to a, uh, pretty good start. You know what?
0:56
Even I had to laugh at those. I know we're gonna get into it. Yeah. What did the guy have, three touches total? Everybody's like, "Oh, give it to him now." Two went to the house last I checked.
1:04
Um, we w- by, by the way, today on the show, Chris Felica, uh, the Bear from, uh, Fox Sports. I almost said his own em- his old employer.
1:12
From Fox Sports, Chris Felica talking college football with us, and whatever else he's betting. Jason Weingarten, um, Dr. Bob, his weekly spot, college football. He's got a total, he's got a side in college football.
1:24
He will be thorough, as you know him to be, with all [laughs] his explanations on why he's playing that. We'll talk all things NFL week number one, all our game previews.
1:32
Oh, Joe Serallo will join us a little later on as well, uh, on the show. Yes, Judy. Joe is the host of Cashing Out- Yeah... right here on VSiN. He will join us.
1:40
And we're gonna do a little segment, uh, that we're gonna do every Friday here called Are We Sure? Are we sure about dot, dot, dot? Mm-hmm. Our, our football assumptions, if you will.
1:51
'Cause you know what they say about assuming, Kelly. Uh, it makes you regret, uh, things you thought. Yes. I believe is how that expression goes. Expression. Um, to the game last night, let us begin there.
2:01
Uh, you want a little three-minute recap? Here you go. Baltimore at Kansas City, opening kickoff touchback. Made sure to, uh, mention or to log all the, uh, the, the kickoff results here. Oh, boy. Yep.
2:10
I, we gotta have this discussion. Yep. Uh, Baltimore, couple Lamar keepers, designed keepers. That's not gonna be sustainable. Sets up Henry, uh, five-yard touchdown run.
2:19
Derrick Henry cashes anytime touchdown and first touchdown. Seven to nothing Baltimore. KC opening kickoff, they did return it to the 33. Baltimore was at least trying to get returns.
2:29
Uh, five plays, 67 yards, two minutes and 19 seconds, as opposed to, uh, Baltimore's deliberate drive. Kansas City just flies downfield, and then Worthy from 21 out, seven to seven, 5:55 left in the first quarter.
2:43
He was ablaze on that. Kingsley Suma- uh, Suamataia, uh, coming, uh, from his rook- uh, the rookie from his left tackle position to, uh, make a block downfield on Roquan on that one.
2:54
Th- that was one of those combinations of super speed, super blocking, and then you're like, "How did he get through those blocks?" Whew, that was just a- Like, just carved his way through and didn't even get touched.
3:03
Of course, I immediately that tweet, I'm like, "Way to go, Buffalo," as we said on draft day. "Way to trade to Kansas City and let them draft him." [laughs] Right, yeah.
3:10
And then some one person goes, "Oh, it's an overreaction, Gil." I was like, "Well, we said it draft night, so it's not an overreaction." [laughs] Uh, and by the way, just wait. He might do something else later. Yeah.
3:18
Um, Baltimore runs it out to the 30. We did have a return. Four and out. Kansas City then returns the favor with a five and out 'cause David Ojabo, uh, sacked Mahomes. Uh, Suamataia was beat on that play.
3:28
Second quarter, Baltimore first play, Lamar hit by Chris Jones, fumbles, recovered by Felix Anukuke Uzoma at the Baltimore 14, but Kelce holds, sets him back, pass the juju broken up at the goal line by Marcus Williams.
3:40
They have to settle for a Butker 32-yard field goal. 10 to seven Kansas City. Baltimore after a touchback, and this will become the theme here on. Uh, fourth and three at midfield, they decide to go for it.
3:50
Did you have a problem with this? Down 10-seven, early second quarter, they decide to go for it at midfield. That bother you? No. Okay. [laughs] That was a quick answer. No, not really. Lamar to Zay for one.
4:01
It kind of did me, 'cause it was like just under 10 minutes left in the second. I'm like, "Are we still, are we doing this?" And they did it.
4:06
Well, that, well, and that was, it, well, the only thing it kind of bothered me about is it felt a little knee-jerk reaction because they had an opportunity, what, the previous drive where they could've done the same thing, and they decided to punt it.
4:15
Well, that, there's a real questionable Baltimore k- uh, punt coming up. Still 10 to seven now as, uh, Vic Mahomes and then Kansas City take the ball over right there at midfield.
4:24
But third and 12, uh, Mahomes avoids three Ravens for a would-be sack. He hits Kelce downfield for 23, then Worthy for 12, his second touch of the game.
4:31
But alligator arms for Kelce on second and five from the 13, then incomplete to Worthy in the end zone, broken up by Ardarius Washington. Butker from 31. Again, they have to settle. Mm-hmm.
4:40
So Kansas City only up 13 to seven, and you feel they're dominating at this point. 5:53 left in the second quarter. Uh, Baltimore after a touchback. Tucker misses a 53-yard field goal. That's something to keep an eye on.
4:50
Yeah. Is he not gonna be A-U-T-O-matic? I mean, that was a thing from last year too a little bit, so yeah, something to definitely keep an eye on. I threw a little Prince in there, by the way. Sign of the times.
4:59
Uh, Kansas City first and 10 from their own 43. Mahomes under throws Rashee Rice, picked by Roquan.
5:03
What a mistake by Mahomes, uh, right after the Tucker missed 53-yard field goal, and Baltimore gets life late in the second quarter. Uh, they have to settle for a Tucker 25-yard field goal. 13 to 10 at halftime.
5:14
R- real quick, think about that sequence right there. Justin Tucker missed field goal and one of the worst interceptions I've ever seen Patrick Mahomes make. Yes. Back-to-back plays. Improbable, improbable.
5:22
I'm like, "What is going on?" Yeah. What are we watching? Uh, 13 to 10 at the half. Kansas City begins in the third quarter after a run back to the 31, uh, but they hold on the run back.
5:32
Remember, that's possible on ki- on kickoff returns too. Mm-hmm. So back to the 21. Mahomes to Rice for 33, the big play, then 25 to Justin Watson. Leads eventually to a Pacheco one-yard touchdown run.
5:43
Um, 20 to 10 Kansas City. By the way, Suamataia had a hold there, but it didn't matter ultimately. 20 to 10 Kansas City, 11:28 left in the third quarter.
5:50
Then after a touchback for Baltimore, seven plays, but then they had to punt. Kansas City returns the favor, nine plays, then they had to punt. But they, they didn't have to punt.
5:58
They decided to punt up 10, fourth and five at the Baltimore 40. Disgusting. What was that? Just disgusting. I wasn't on Twitter at all, so I don't really know what everybody's reaction was.
6:08
I was, I was shocked I was blown away Yeah, that one, I don't know what you're doing. Fourth quarter, Baltimore starts at their own 20 now. First play, fourth quarter, Lamar to Likely for 49 yards, touchdown.
6:20
A lot of yak on that play. Uh, they did the analytics on it, 0.3% touchdown probability, but Likely with a couple dodges and a broken tackle, 20 to 17 Kansas City.
6:30
Uh, we're in the fourth again after touchback, uh, for Kansas City. Eight plays, Mahomes to Worthy for 35, touchdown. Xavier Worthy- Wide open... rookie of the year, driver's seat. 27 to 17 Kansas City.
6:41
Then Baltimore after another touchback, 10:25 left. They matriculate the ball down the field. That's the first time we get to say that this year. [laughs] Tucker, 32-yard field goal, 27 to 20.
6:50
Uh, cuts the Kansas City lead to seven with 4:54 left. Then after another touchback, the Chiefs, um, Baltimore now with one timeout left because they used one on defense- Two...
7:00
uh, well, they used one on defense on the first drive, uh, three plays in, and then they used a second one on defense on Kansas City's second drive- Yeah, yeah... of the second half. So they wasted two.
7:09
They only had one timeout left there. Um, third and 10 though, they get Kansas City to third and 10 at their own 40. They use their last timeout with 2:36.
7:16
So if Kansas City gets the 10 yards here, game over, but they don't because Trenton Simpson bats up a Mahomes pass in the air, Ma. It looked like he might've picked it for a second- Yeah...
7:24
but Mahomes comes down with it. Nonetheless, they got a punt. So down seven, Baltimore starts their own 13, 1:50 left, down seven here. Lamar to Likely for eight. Lamar runs for nine. Incomplete intended for Bateman.
7:36
Bateman never gets open, by the way, until he does. Uh, to Likely for eight, 1:26 to go. Third and two from their own 38, Lamar escapes for a three-yard run and a first.
7:44
1:11 to go at their own 41, Lamar to Justice Hill for seven, to Likely for four. 43 seconds left now at the Kansas City 48. To Bateman somehow.
7:54
Rashod Bateman gets open for 38, and the Ravens choose not to clock it at the 10-yard line. They let the clock run. Lamar a little too high for Likely in the back of the end zone. 10 seconds left, down seven.
8:06
So he misses Likely deep, uh, corner of the end zone. Then he throws it way behind a wide open Zay Flowers. Ah, Jesus Christ. Lamar later would say it wasn't intended for Zay Flowers.
8:17
It was intended for Bateman, who was underneath. Uh, but Zay went past it and Bateman stayed under it. Uh, five seconds left. One more chance. Lamar bounces around the pocket, gets loose to Likely.
8:30
Touchdown, Plinko, but no. And it also looked like the Ravens, Harbaugh, was gonna go for two there- That was the worst part. If you're holding-... to take the win.
8:38
He was gonna go for it, but the- If you were holding a Chiefs ticket like me, uh, you, uh, you knew it as soon as, as soon as they scored, Harbaugh was gonna go for two.
8:45
But as soon as the, I saw that throw and the catch, I'm like, and Harbaugh's pointing for two, I'm like, "Oh, God, bless him." But, but here's the thing.
8:51
When you watch this live, by the way, of course, they review it and they show that, uh, Likely's toe, Isaiah Likely's toe was on the line. It's reversed. Kansas City wins the ball game 27 to 20. But you could see live,
9:02
right, that he, he, he probably had his toe out, and even if you weren't that sure, you knew it would have to withstand review. So I thought Tirico kind of blew that call. Oh, I thought so too.
9:12
I thought it was- He was so convinced it was a touchdown, it seemed like, or maybe he was just wrapped up in the moment.
9:17
I don't wanna say I was sure either way, but I was like, "Man, it sure looked like he was out of bounds," for that type of reaction. Plinko. Congratulations to Chiefs backers. Yeah.
9:26
Uh, Ravens backers, you were probably outplayed, but you still, it was still a Plinko situation. Um, there's just a few things for this. First of all, you look at the box score.
9:34
Baltimore out-gained Kansas City 452 to 353, 185 to 72 on the ground. But that's deceiving because it was 74 to 50 in total plays. Mm-hmm. They ran 24 fewer plays than the Chiefs did.
9:48
Um, I thought the game was marred by penalties. I thought Sean Hockley thought he was the show for much of this game. 13 accepted total penalties in this game. That's not to, uh, mention all the offsetting ones- Yeah...
10:01
and the ones that were not accepted. Um, Kingsley Suamataia, as I mentioned, uh, good plays, bad plays for the Chiefs. They should be encouraged, I think, for him as a rookie left tackle.
10:11
Um, did have a, did give up one sack, gave up a couple pressures, had a hold, but, uh, looked great on that first Worthy touchdown.
10:18
Um, and then it's the Lamar thing with the, you know, again, Lamar, 26 for 41 for 273, touchdown, no picks, was sacked once, but 16 for 122 and one fumble lost. This is not sustainable, 16 carries a game for Lamar.
10:35
Oh, no. I, I mean, I think some- He can't do this...
10:37
I think some of the biggest take, takeaways from the game for, for me at least was, uh, the Ravens offensive line that we thought might be an issue this year, uh, it appears like it is a little bit, and it appears that Lamar doesn't trust it at all, 'cause he was looking to get out of there as quickly as possible.
10:51
I don't really, it doesn't really feel like they are set with how they're gonna utilize Derrick Henry in this offense. Drive one looked great.
10:57
Out, after that, he wasn't involved all that much in the game it sure felt like. Um, you know, the, it's game one of the NFL season, right? The refs looking to make a statement with the whole...
11:08
Uh, I don't have a problem with that, by the way. The w- 'cause we complained all last year about that offensive tackle lining up so far off the line of scrimmage. Yes, we did.
11:17
I didn't have a problem with the refs calling it that many times and making a statement.
11:20
By- Maybe I'm the only guy, but Uh, Blake Warrior, by the way, tweeting, "Players to have 270 plus passing yards and 120 plus rushing yards in a game in NFL history, Lamar Jackson three times. Last night was the third.
11:31
The other two, the 2019 divisional round and week two back in 2019." I'm with you, but Will Hill said it best yesterday via text.
11:38
If they're gonna keep calling that illegal formation, that's gonna have much more effect on totals to games to the under- Mm-hmm... than any kind of kick, new kickoff rule will to the over.
11:47
We'll get into that on the other side. Numbers Game, Vs and the Sports Betting Network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on Vsin, the Sports Betting Network. Back on the Numbers Game live from Circa.
12:03
Skill Alexander, it's Kelly Fidlin, where sports betting lives on a football Friday.
12:08
Um, you would think that I would be more upset with this gentleman, uh, for his, uh, ridiculous slander of world number one Iga Swiatek on Twitter yesterday, but really what I'm more upset with is, uh, when, uh, Karolína Muchová was leading 6-1, 2-love yesterday in her match, her semifinal match against Jessie Pegula, he, uh, texted me, "Muchová, more like Matchova."
12:29
[laughs] It's Chris Felike, everybody, the bear from Fox Sports. What do you have to say for yourself? Yeah, I, I, I, I did it to both of us because I had a 27 to one ticket on her to- To reach the final as well.
12:41
So that, that was a, uh... Well, while giving... pushed, had a break play, had a break point to go up a second break and three-love in the second set, and just kind of pushed the volley far over.
12:51
I mean, Pegula was off the court on the other side of the court. She just pushed it long over the line, and then she proceeded to lose 12 of the next 16 games.
12:58
So, and right, and the other good, the, the chef's kiss with that was right as that was happening, uh, I had the Padres as well, and I saw the- Oh... Padres had a, a two-out ninth inning grand slam from Tyger Smith.
13:08
Oh, God. And so you say, hey, what, what should've been a really good night turned into a, uh, a god-awful night. But that's okay. We, we, we have... Wha- what could go wrong?
13:17
We have college football and the NFL this weekend to, uh, to make amends, right? Absolutely right. And I, and I would, by the way, some people wanted to hear us, uh- [clears throat]...
13:24
back, back and forth about ego, but your audio is not great, so I wanna get to your picks real quick. Sorry. Let's go to, uh, let's go to college football. What did you land on today? Yeah, the...
13:33
I apologize for the internet at the Hyatt Place here in, uh, in Ann Arbor, but, but we'll try and get through it. Uh, we- Come on, Ann Arbor. Hey, exactly. Come on, Hyatt. Go Blue.
13:41
I landed on Houston plus 29 against Oklahoma. Uh, I don't know if anybody really took a, a dive into the box score for Oklahoma against Temple, but it really wasn't too flattering.
13:53
Uh, Jackson Arnold, 17 completions, went for 145 yards. They had 378 total yards against what's probably the worst team in the FBS. One of them for sure.
14:03
Uh, their number one wide receiver, Jalaal Parug, Parug is gonna be out for an extended period of time. They got six turnovers in the game. But can you rely on that week in and week out? Uh, look,
14:13
Houston is not a good offense at all. But they did do a decent job defensively against UNLV last week. Uh, I trust Willie Fritz to kind of try and shorten this game.
14:23
So I just thought 29 was, uh, it was too many in this game. So I took, took the Cougars plus 29, and I am probably in the, in the minority here. But, but I took Colorado plus the seven and a half.
14:36
Uh, I think the one thing we know for sure, of, of all other things in this game, is that Colorado is going to move the ball, and Colorado is going to be scoring points.
14:45
Uh, if you look at the 13 games that Colorado has played under Deion Sanders, underdogs, they're like 9-3-1 against the numbers. So they're now in the opposite position of, like, not being favored.
14:58
They're, they're an underdog in this game. And I'm not saying that's the reason why I'm picking Colorado, but with, with Hunter, Shador, and Horn, they're gonna move the ball against the Nebraska defense.
15:08
And I, I'm still not sure this Nebraska defensive improvement isn't just a byproduct of playing a whole bunch of bad Big Ten teams late in the year and then UTEP in game one.
15:19
Th- this is the type of game that Nebraska has been, like, dying to win forever. They haven't. Like, everything right now is great for Nebraska. Dylan Raiola is the guy. We were great last week. Our defense is improved.
15:31
We win this game, we could be 7-0 going to Columbus. It's a lot of pressure on a team that hasn't handled pressure or handled these expectations really well the last few years.
15:41
So I did take Colorado plus seven and a half. Uh, I took Syracuse plus three against Georgia Tech as well. Uh, I'm not sure, again, this is a question maybe to throw out there. Like, you just do the whole, are we sure?
15:54
Are, are we sure about Georgia Tech now based on what we saw from Florida State on Monday night? Are we sure that they're really that good and they should- Good point... be playing in- Yeah...
16:03
playing points on the road at Syracuse? Cal McCord a- and Gadsden and their wide receivers had a really good rapport.
16:10
This is a really interesting game that might not be on people's radar for Saturday, but the winner of this game has a really good opportunity to win eight, nine games and have a really nice, uh, bowl destination come end of the year.
16:22
And then the other game I landed on was Iowa State plus three, uh, against Iowa. I think the... Look, are we sure Iowa's offensive problems are really solved? This game was 6-0 at halftime last week- [laughs]...
16:35
against Illinois State, and people were making the jokes, "Same old Iowa offense."
16:38
They scored 21 points in the fourth quarter, uh, against the FBS team to kind of make that game look a little bit more of a blowout than it actually was. Uh, I know Iowa State is down a couple of guys.
16:48
I think their linebacker's gonna be out an extended period of time.
16:51
But still, they're facing a much better team, uh, this week in the Cy- in the Cyclones than they were last week against your Redbirds from Northern Illinois.
16:59
So, uh, yeah, I- Iowa State, Syracuse, uh, Houston, and Colorado. Four dogs there for you. All right. Uh, big noon kickoff. Is that Michigan-Texas this weekend? We are. Okay. We are.
17:09
We are, and I really have no idea what to expect in this game. I, I'm looking for all the reasons in the world to take Michigan plus the points, but I'm not convinced they can move the ball.
17:21
Uh, you have, uh, Orge who really is just a running quarterback. Maybe they'll just embrace it and run both guys and have packages for both guys. Uh, I don't think their wide receivers are very dynamic.
17:32
Under would be the way I would lean here, but the nu- the numbers come down to 42 now, so that's really, really low.
17:38
Maybe a, maybe a Michigan team total w- would be the best way to play it in case Texas, uh, does have a good bit of success 'cause Todd and the receivers that Texas have really look like, uh, they and Ewers were on the, on the same page last week.
17:51
Uh, but yeah, I, I'm not gonna force a play here. If I had to play one thing, it would be Michigan team total under. Okay. Uh, real quick, your NFL, uh, pick of the week and, uh, who you might be playing for survivor.
18:02
I, I like the Colts getting three, uh, against the Texans. Uh, the Texans, and this is a...
18:07
Look, last year, Jonathan Taylor dropped a fourth-down pass that they probably would've scored, won the game, and they would've been putting the team in the playoff and probably had all the expectations that the Texans now have this year.
18:19
So now you've got the biggest buzz team in the NFL, land point, on the road, division game. Like, Colts seem like an auto play for me, uh, here as well. And then you and I are on the same page on, uh, my other game.
18:32
The Cardinals are getting six and a half against the Bills. And the Arizona offense with, with Tyler last year late looked much different. You add Marvin Harrison Jr.
18:41
against the Bills defense, that probably isn't going to be very good. Uh, now, look, I think the Bills are gonna score a ton of points.
18:47
This is gonna be a very- A high scoring game, and I think the Cardinals certainly hang around. Survivor, I'm looking at Tampa, uh, just because- Mm...
18:55
I think the backups were, while I think, uh, Jameis Winston's gonna have a, a good year and be in the mix for Offensive Rookie of the Year, odd balls in that defense against a rookie quarterback.
19:06
I, I think the, the Bucs offensive line should be able to help, help them as well by kind of maintaining time of possession, keeping the, the, uh, Commander's offense off the field.
19:15
So, uh, in board it's a little bit of a game theory type play here, 'cause I don't think you're gonna be, if you look at Bucs schedule down the road, you're probably not going to be using them, uh, very often in any time future.
19:25
You don't wanna burn the Bengals week one. Uh, and then at the end, of course, you're obviously concerned if you're playing the Seahawks with how well, uh, the Broncos looked in the preseason also up.
19:34
Yeah, I'll end it on Colts, uh, Colts plus three, Cardinals plus six and a half, and then I think the Bucs. All right. Chris, thank you so much, man. Appreciate it.
19:41
We'll, uh, we'll do the Iga thing another time when, when, when we can hear you better. [laughs] We're good. All right, brother. Be well.
19:46
Chris Falica, @ChrisFalica on, uh, Twitter, and of course, uh, Bearbets Podcast Empire. He's got multiple podcasts over there. Will Hill's there on his pod, Sammy P.'s there, Jeff Schwartz.
19:57
Whole bunch of stuff over there. Late season addition, Jeff Schwartz. Yep, abso- absolutely. That's right. Yep. Yeah, Jeff Schwartz is gonna be on with Stormy today, by the way. Mm-hmm. Uh, on Money Moves.
20:05
Uh, by the way, for those who missed it, uh, Muchova loses that match, 6-1 up, 6-1 to Love. He sends the, uh, Mu- Muchova more like match over to text. And of course, as I'm reading I'm like, "Oh, no."
20:17
[laughs] That's what happens. "Haven't you done this before?" Um, it's one thing to slander Iga. Ugh. Now you're gonna lo- re- he had Muchova to win the whole tournament.
20:25
Um, and so, uh, we lose on that 'cause Jessie Pegula comes back. I gue- I didn't really watch 'cause I was watching the football game. I, I, I- Yeah... I feel like I watched. I had it on my other TV.
20:33
I, I don't really know how I missed the end of it. Like, I watched a lot of the first set, thought it was gonna be done. I- Yeah... Muchova looked awesome, I thought, in that first set.
20:40
So we have, uh, Sabalenka's gonna take on Pegula, uh, in the women's final on Saturday. Sabalenka correctly priced, I believe, as a, uh, just south of a $3 favorite in that- Yeah, that's what I saw... based on her data.
20:53
And then on the men's side we have the two semis tonight, and I think those are properly priced with both Jannik Sinner and Taylor Fritz.
20:58
I know a lot of people like Tiafoe, but I think both of those are appropriate favorites.
21:02
Probably won't have, assuming, uh, you know, assuming Sinner advances, probably won't have another US Open tennis bet in what has been a successful tournament, uh, in Flushing Meadows. What a tournament it was.
21:12
And then tennis has the decency of moving a- aside as football comes. You have one more, are we sure, before we go to break from last segment that we didn't get to? Yeah, we do. We do have one more. Are we sure- Yeah...
21:22
the Eagles and Falcons should be odds on favorites in their, in their divisions? No. That's the one I'm not sure about.
21:30
I'm not sure about that, uh, the, first of all, the Eagles, it, it, would it surprise anybody if the Cowboys actually won that division? No. I'd be, like, mildly surprised if, if at all.
21:41
Um, so no, they shouldn't be odds on favorite. I don't- I, I- But you'll have to define, uh, the, the catchall of odds on, that people use it so, you know, sort of umbrella-like. Yeah.
21:52
And then the Falcons- Minus money, right... and the Falcons, would you be that shocked? I mean, I, I know we've said for, uh, most people have said for the entire off season, oh, Falcons, so much better.
22:01
But we had Aaron Schatz come on here and said they had the worst defense DVOA in football. Mm-hmm. And that was before- Yeah... they got Matthew Judon, right? Mm-hmm. That was before that. And Simmons.
22:08
That was before they got Justin Simmons. Um, so maybe that doesn't apply anymore. But if the Bucs, who you and Falica seem to love for survivor, good luck to you both- [laughs]...
22:19
um, if the Saints won the division, would you be that flabbergasted? So I guess what I'm saying is no, we shouldn't be that sure. Ye- I get it, but we shouldn't be that sure...
22:28
I think I'm more sure about the Falcons, but. Yes. But of the ones you've asked me- Yeah... that's the one I'm least sure about- No, I hear you. Yeah... I would say. Um, on the other side, Jason Weingarten.
22:38
He's got football plays under a cloud of smoke at Spreader Pedi on the other side. It's the Numbers Game right here at VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:45
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on the Numbers Game. Un partido de numeros for those listening in Spanish. Skill Alexander, it's Kelly Bidle. Look at those graphics.
23:01
Look at those brand-new graphics. ANG down the middle there. I switched monitors on you. That, that's actually not on air. Oh, it's not? Oh, oh, I'm sorry. You're looking at these ones.
23:09
[laughs] What do you mean it's not on air? Kelly, Kelly- We qua- we acquired the new studio. [laughs] You know that they film this, right? [laughs] Okay. Uh, by the way, just to follow, VSiN tweets it.
23:21
He says, "Where's Kelly Biddle today? At least you got Seth Rogen to sit in for him." Ah. Yeah, I know I did. Yep.
23:25
And The Numbers Guy says, "I need an around the way girl," which makes me wonder what is an around the way girl, Gill? And is there any relation to Crack's knock around broad? [laughs] Different things. Different things.
23:36
Just wanna point that out. Um, okay, week one. By the way, still to come this hour- Oh, yeah... uh, Dr. Bob joins us. Dr.
23:42
Bob, who, uh, I refer to as a pioneer in the sports modeling, the sports handicapping, uh, field, where he uses his, uh, mathematical model and his technical analysis to predict the results of sporting events.
23:54
He prefers legend, so you know. By the way, we, I called him on that last time, and he goes, "I just said it one time." [laughs] I was like, "That's all it takes, buddy." [laughs] That's all it took. That's all it takes.
24:02
That's all it took. I, I did get the vibe, though, that he, he would not like us to bring that up again. Oh, I will totally bring it up again. [laughs] Joe Seralla will join us too as well.
24:11
Looking forward to, uh, Joe coming on the show for the first time. Yeah. He's doing nights here, um, at, at the network. Another new addition, yes. Yeah. Cashing out every night. Cashing out every single night.
24:21
Not every night, Sunday through Thursday. So we're looking forward to that. Week one, more, uh, games to get to in the National Football League. Again, just little capsule thoughts on these. Yep.
24:28
Uh, biggest favorite on the board, we head to Cincinnati. Bengals laying eight, eight and a half right now to the Patriots. Total 40 and a half to 41 right now in this game.
24:38
Bengals, uh, tr- the traditional slow starts of the Cincinnati Bengals concern you at all here? I, I, y- I don't know that it... I, I'm not touching it on the spread. It will be a s- at least one survivor play for me.
24:48
It'll be for sure the most common survivor play or the most heavily selected. I'm gonna guess over 40% of survivor plays are on the Bengals. Really? That's my, that's my guess on this.
24:58
Is it, is it weird that I didn't even really consider it that way? It is a little weird- Okay... that you did. Yeah, a little weird. Okay. But, you know, if you wanna game theory from day one- Yeah...
25:06
that's your, that's your business. Yeah. That's your business. It's all good. Uh, I just think the Patriots are so bad that I'm not concerned about an upset here.
25:12
Uh, for, uh, [laughs] that would be something, wouldn't it, if the, uh, if the Patriots were able to win this. I just think the Patriots are a tal- are a largely talentless football team. Do I know that the Bengals...
25:22
I, I just, I think your north star in week one should be to take points- Mm... because of the uncertainty. Right. So I would never lay the eight-and-a-half here. Yeah, no, I think, uh, uh, that's all well said.
25:31
I did tease, uh, that, uh, brought up that Vikings teaser last segment. I did. That's where I combined the Bengals in. So I do have them teased down.
25:37
Um, I think there are, I, I, if you did wanna get involved with the Bengals, you l- you think the Patriots are that bad. I think there are other teaser legs. I just didn't play them.
25:45
I don't play a lot of teasers early in the season. Yeah. I think that gets a little dangerous, too, with the uncertainty and unknown with a lot of these teams. But, man, I don't...
25:52
Cowboys and Colts keep, it keeps sticking out to me as pretty decent teaser legs. Um, but just that for me.
25:58
I also played the Seahawks already in week two over the Patriots, [laughs] so I've already d- I already jumped ahead there. Um, okay, moving on. Still in the early window, Titans at the Bears.
26:07
Bears down to three-and-a-half point favorites now. Titans taking money these past couple days. 44-and-a-half total painted across the board. Um, I have v- this is one who I just want no part of.
26:19
You know, we ask a question on the Megapod every week, "What is the game you want no part of?" If you, if you lived in a bizarro world, you had to make a side bet on every single game- Yeah... but you got one free pass.
26:29
Uh, this was definitely a candidate for that. Titans at the Bears. Bears favored three-and-a-half. You have a rookie quarterback, Caleb Williams, who has not seen live action yet. Uh, until now, he will.
26:38
So there's that uncertainty. His, his preseason performance was, I mean, like, he wasn't great consistently.
26:45
He had some spectacular plays where he would roll out to the left and then just, like, hit dimes on the, on the sidelines. If you watched Hard Knocks, you were familiar with those plays. Um, so I'm not touching this.
26:56
I'd let, again, just the, the quintessential, the quintessential week one, let me see these two teams play before I have any strong opinions. I'm with you.
27:04
There are other games that I would throw in the category, but no, this would be my answer. Yes. Uh, without a doubt. Yeah.
27:10
If the one game I have no interest in touching at all, side or total this week, it is Titans and Bears. So we'll, we'll move on, uh, to a game that, uh, we do both ha- uh, we are both involved in, Cardinals at the Bills.
27:22
This is six-and-a-half now, Gil, and we are getting juiced six-and-a-halfs, wondering if we see a seven before Sunday. 47, 47-and-a-half is the total here.
27:32
Just gonna repeat myself, 'cause I know there's a whole off-season to have said this 10 different times, but I just, I'm going with my preseason conviction that the Bills are not gonna make the playoffs this year.
27:41
I think your, uh, week one, g- you know, thoughts ought to correlate to some degree with that.
27:45
I think the absence of Stefon Diggs opening the field up for Allen, for Josh Allen to throw underneath to his tight ends becomes a question mark. Uh, I think he's gotta be a Superman here.
27:55
This is a lot of points to give a Cardinals team, where the defense admittedly, on paper, looks like it is going to- Mm-hmm... uh, what's the technical term? Suck. Suck.
28:03
[laughs] Um, but with Kyler Murray behind the center, th- they're actually not horrific. Uh, give me the points, I'll take the six-and-a-half here. Yeah, I'm with you on the side. Yeah.
28:11
And then I bet the total, too, over. I, I don't really, I, I, I don't have much respect right now for either one of these defenses heading into the year. And for the Buffalo side of it, it's a lot of injuries.
28:19
You're talking about a safety tandem that we, we were so used to seeing Poyer and Hyde there for so many years, and they're not there anymore. You got Milano hurt.
28:27
I'm, I'm worried about what the, the kinda backbone of this defense looks like for the Buffalo Bills. I think we see a lot of points, um, and I do like the Cardinals.
28:35
So s- uh, over is a play for me, and the Cardinals is a play. Moving on, last early window game, Texans at the Cov, uh, Colts. It is Texans two-and-a-half. It is three at DraftKings.
28:47
Couple threes, uh, out there, actually. We got three even money behind us here at Circa as well. Uh, 48-and-a-half, 49 the total. Yeah, this is the quintessential what do you believe from last year? Mm-hmm.
28:56
Do you believe C.J. Stroud is the real deal and the Texans are gonna be that much more stacked with Diggs now on, uh, on offense here, adding to an already talented offensive skill position set, uh, with the Texans?
29:08
Or do you believe that, uh, even though Chris Ballard didn't do anything really this off-season f- to improve the Colts, that Anthony Richardson, as Kelly Bidlin calls him, "The greatest player who's ever played the game of football ever"?
29:19
[laughs] Exact quote, yeah. I believe you said that. [laughs] Um, or do you believe that he is going to will his team to victory here? Uh, it's a division game. You're a home dog. That's always a, a nice proposition.
29:33
Um, again, a stay away. While I love the Cardinals- Yeah... while I'm playing the Saints, this is another one where I'm just like, "Yeah, let me, let me see this." Yeah, this would be lean Colts for me.
29:41
Ba- I, I mean, but mainly 'cause we're talking about a home division dog catching three points in week one. Um, b- I, I don't know about you, this is actually a game I feel like I've heard...
29:51
I, I've heard several people I respect on both sides of this, so that makes it a pretty easy, uh, uh, just take out of consideration game for me. Um, another pretty ugly one, Raiders at the Chargers.
30:02
We are now into the late window, 4:05 Eastern. Chargers three-point f- home favorites painted, uh, 40, 40-and-a-half the total. This is, you know, Justin Herbert. We did our quarterback rankings.
30:13
Justin Herbert ended up, I think, eighth for both of us. And I remember what I said was, "Okay, this is, like, I love the raw talent. It's amazing."
30:21
But he did have a, he's had tons of games where it's been on his racket, so to speak, late in the game, and it has not worked out, and that's when he had great players around him. The Chargers have an empty cupboard.
30:32
Uh, empty, empty cupboard. What was the word? [laughs] Cupboard. Cupboard. Cupboard. Cupboard. [laughs] Cupboard. Uh, this we- this year on offense, it appears beyond Herbert.
30:40
So, um, listen, three point, this, this is, this spread to me is the one where the books are like, "We have no idea. It's three. Have at it." Yeah, no.
30:49
Raiders, three-point dogs, because I don't, I don't, I don't expect much from the Raiders this year. I don't believe in them at all. Yeah. I'm with you on both.
30:55
I think, I actually think the Chargers, the, the Chargers' lack of talent is somehow not being talked about enough, I feel like.
31:01
I, I did fi- I don't know if we went over it or not, I did finally end up playing their, their win total under. I, I just don't...
31:08
Everybody who scored a touchdown for that team i- in the past eight years is off the team now.
31:12
So I, I don't know what we're really expecting from Ladd McConkey to dominate this year or something, uh, from the wide receiver position. Okay, moving on. Commanders at Tampa Bay.
31:21
Uh, Bucs three to three-and-a-half point favorites right now. 42, 42-and-a-half the total in this game. Yeah, just to clarify so far. So I love the Eagles tonight. I'm taking the points with the Cardinals.
31:32
I am laying the three already with the Falcons. I know it's more now. Uh, and the Saints minus four against the Panthers.
31:38
Uh, this one right here, I don't know what's wrong with you folks who are, uh, all picking Tampa Bay and Survivor so confidently. [laughs] How dare you? Um, Jayden Daniels making his debut for Washington.
31:48
This, this was my pick for the game I would want no part of I have no idea what I'm getting for, from Tampa Bay, quite frankly, but I certainly don't know what I'm getting from Washington.
31:57
Um, I expect the incomparable Terry McLaurin to make a great play here and there to keep Washington in this ballgame. Can the Washington defense stand up in this? That's the problem- Yeah... with Washington.
32:07
Just really no help in the secondary this off-season, so that could be the problem this game. I think especially the secondary. I- Yeah... it's a lot of what Falica said for me as well, Gil.
32:16
It is a, I don't think I'm gonna have much interest playing Tampa Bay the rest of the season. They're not a team I'm especially high on.
32:22
I think you're talking week one at home, though, with a rookie quarterback coming in. I also don't know how many times I'm gonna wanna get in front of Jayden Daniels going forward either. Um, so this is the time.
32:31
I'm going to pro- I'm most likely using one of my survivor entries on the Bucs. Um, I did lay three with them as well. I think those Washington corners are gonna be a problem, um, for Washington, not for Tampa Bay.
32:43
Uh, moving on, we have Broncos at the Seahawks, 4:05 Eastern. Seahawks six-point favorites, one five and a half out there. I see 41 and a half your total in this one. Uh, too many points to play.
32:55
I think Seattle and Mike McDonald are going to be great, but as I've said when I'm talking about this team, it's going to take the full season for his defensive approach to really catch on with players who are new to his very, to his very intricate system where he's, he doesn't rush more than four that often.
33:11
It's where the blitz is coming from. They're gonna have to figure that out. That's gonna take some time. So to lay six here against the Broncos team, which I don't expect much from- Yeah...
33:19
but six is a lot, so I'm not, I'm not playing that. I hear you. This was the fifth game that made it onto my millions card, just kind of like what's that fifth side you're gonna play. Yeah.
33:29
It d- was Seattle, and I will have a, I think I will have a survivor entry on Seattle as well. Oh, okay. I think Seattle and Tampa Bay as well. Okay. A few more games to get to. We will get to those. And Dr.
33:39
Bob on the other side. It is a numbers game. College football next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. We were so rudely interrupted by the show.
33:55
We were having a conversation with Bob, for God's sakes. Don't forget to check out our website, vsin.com. Best bets, betting splits, exclusive articles, odds by state, betting tools, betting guides, it's all there.
34:05
And on the front page, a whole bunch of NFL. Yes, indeed. Zach Cohen on the Packers-Eagles tonight. Tyler Shoemaker on late line movement, NFL week one. And we got some college football as well, week two.
34:17
Adam Burke, Tyler Shoemaker, Steve Maconin, everybody's all about the college football. And Matt Youmans, of course, uh, on college ball. VSiN, pardon me, vsin.com, check it out. Uh, I just mentioned, uh, this gentleman.
34:30
He is a pioneer and a legend. He is Dr. Bob. You can follow him on Twitter @drbobsports and at drbobsports.com. That's drbobsports.com.
34:39
He is a guy who has modeled, uh, mathematically and used technical analysis to, uh, predict the results of sporting events for decades now, and he's kind enough to join us in his normal Friday spot.
34:50
Good morning to you, Bob. Good morning. I'm, I'm happy, uh, you know, I keep track of every play I've ever, uh, released on your show, and I'm happy to start this season with a USC win. Last year was not my best year.
35:02
I was 22 and 21 on the games I gave out on your show, but lifetime now, 58% after that USC win. So- How about that? Back on track. Bob- Back on track...
35:12
tracking his, his picks in the, in the ANG subset, in the numbers game subset. Bob Curtis- Who, who else does that? Paul Carr?... has a progressive guest line. Paul Carr does that as well, yes.
35:21
No one else, hey, no one else wants to do that, 'cause nobody [laughs] But I'm, I'm 10- I'm 107, 79 and two lifetime on, on football on Gil's show. Wow. There we go.
35:32
Well, you know, no one likes to except for our guests, 'cause, uh, w- Paul, Paul Carr does. Jason Weingarten proclaims himself the most successful guest in the history of VSiN. Right. Yeah, yeah.
35:40
That's not- Not sure I've seen the numbers behind that- I'm not sure I've seen the numbers on that either... but yeah [laughs]. That's right, Bob. That's true. He doesn't track it. Uh, okay, let's go to college football.
35:48
You have thoughts on Houston and Oklahoma. Houston lost as a favorite last week to, uh, UNLV by 20, and then Oklahoma just absolutely crushed Temple 51 to three. What do you got here?
36:00
But did Oklahoma really crush Temple? Oh, interesting. The, the score says so. They scored 51 points, but Oklahoma only gained 378 yards and averaged 5.8 yards per play.
36:12
Temple was one of the worst defenses in the nation last year, so that was not really a, a, a crush, the way I look at things.
36:21
Uh, new quarterback Jackson Arnold only averaged 4.6 yards on his 28 pass plays, and only 3.0 if you take out the one target to top returning receiver Jalil Faruq, uh, who, who hauled in a 47-yard pass and then got injured.
36:39
Faruq's out [laughs], so the one guy that he had a big play with is out. Their explosive, uh, receiver, Nick Anderson, didn't play last week, is questionable this week.
36:49
I'm not sure why they'd play him necessarily in a game they should win. I, I'd try to get him ready for conference season.
36:55
But even if he plays, I'm assuming Nick Anderson will play, and if he does, you know, Arnold should have a better game.
37:02
I mean, I still, even though he was terrible last week, I still, I still rate Oklahoma's, you know, pass offenses as being, you know, about a yard per pass play better than average, even though Arnold's career, he's only 0.2 yards per pass play better than an average quarterback on 100 career pass plays.
37:18
I still give him the benefit of the doubt, even after that terrible performance. The, the offense did not look good, and Houston's offense was dreadful.
37:26
Th- they have a new offense that they're trying to learn this season. I didn't like their offense much last year anyway, and their, uh, starting unit scored zero points.
37:35
Um, and Donovan Smith averaged 2.5 yards per pass play last week. Uh, they scored a garbage touchdown, uh, late, but their offense looks dreadful. Houston's got a decent defense. Uh, Oklahoma's got an elite defense.
37:49
I don't see how Houston's gonna score into double digits, and Oklahoma's offense is not so explosive. Uh, so I like the under. I released the under 50 Two points, uh, early in the week, and now down to 50.
38:01
I still think it's worth the play under, under 50. So go ahead and, and do that. Down to 49. How about... Oh, down to 49. I was gonna say, 'cause I'm seeing a bunch of- Yep... 49-and-a-halfs out there, too.
38:10
So four- Yeah... down to 49. There's still some 50. Yeah, down to 49. Okay. It's worth a play. Uh, let's go to Wazzu and Texas Tech. Wazzu, uh, beat Portland State. Neil Lomax, Clint Didier in Portland State.
38:21
Have they graduated yet? Uh, beat them by 40. Uh, and then Texas Tech, my goodness, they played Abilene Christian and needed to stop a- an attempted two-point conversion in overtime to win it 52 to 51.
38:35
Wazzu and Texas Tech. Yeah. The thing you, you know, that, that, you know, they were a 31-point favorite against Abilene Christian. Um,
38:44
the thing to take out of that is the defense was just so bad in that game, and they've had some injuries on the Texas Tech defense. Um, I mean, two contributors from last year's Tech defense were injured in camp.
38:59
The two guys that were starters part-time last year were injured in camp. One was their projected starter. Uh, projected starting nose tackle didn't play last week. He's questionable for this game.
39:07
Two starters in last week's games were injured at, near the end of that game, and are questionable for this week. That includes safety CJ, uh, Baskerville, who's the, probably their best all-around defensive player.
39:18
Um, Baskerville played basically the entire game last week, you know, had nine tackles and, and, uh, they still couldn't defend the pass. They gave up 506 pass yards at 10 yards a pass play to Abilene Christian.
39:30
The, so the defense is really in trouble, and they could not get pressure on the quarterback against an FCS offensive line.
39:38
The only two quar- they didn't get any sacks, and the only two quarterback hits were by Harvey Dyson, and he's one of the players listed as questionable this week.
39:46
I, I mean, the p- Ma- [laughs] Washington State is, is, is, you know, Cam Ward's gone. He's in Miami doing his thing, but Mateer is the new quarterback. In his career, he's thrown 36 passes for 619 yards.
39:59
I mean, he's probably capable of being a decent quarterback. I don't have him rated as high as they had Cam Ward last year, but looks pretty good so far.
40:08
619 yards is 17 yards a pass attempt with eight touchdowns and just one interception. He's never taken a sack in his life.
40:15
Probably not gonna take a sack this, this week against Texas Tech, who can't get any pressure on the quarterback. Perfect scoring conditions.
40:22
Washington State should have another big game after scoring 70 points last week, and Texas Tech's offense is not as good as that 50 points or 51 points looked, uh, last week.
40:32
They were actually average, um, on a yards per play basis, if you take into account how bad Abilene's, uh, defense is.
40:39
And I have them rated average going into that game, so they're an average offensive team against probably what it looks like an average defensive team for Washington State.
40:48
Texas Tech will score their points, but Washington State's offense is better. Defenses are about the same. So I think Washington State at home wins this game, and I played up to minus two and a half. All right.
40:58
Laying the two as is on Wazzu, uh, against Texas Tech, and then under in the Houston-Oklahoma game. Bob, before we let you go, are you in a survivor pool this year in the NFL? Uh, yeah, I, I'm in, uh, I'm in a couple.
41:10
Um- You sound very excited about it. [laughs] I must say. Yeah. Yeah. It's, uh, yeah. [laughs] I took, uh, I, I'm in two. I took Seattle and New Orleans. Okay.
41:21
So I, I'm on New Orleans as well, 'cause there's no other natural spot to play them, and, uh- And on Seattle. Yeah... can't wait to see on Seattle. [laughs] Okay. Bob, thank you as always. All right. Dr.
41:30
Bob Stoll, everybody. Predictive sports modeling at drbobsports.com. We were talking to Bob before the segment, and I was asking, "How's the wife? How's the kids?"
41:38
And the first thing out of his mouth, he goes, "[sighs] My son's a spaz." And then it just went from there. [laughs] Just love that. Ah. "My son's a spaz. He comes home with a note from school every day." I j- Yeah...
41:48
hey, man, he's getting, he's getting his work done early- Yeah... and he's bored. S- some of us might be able to relate to that from our days in school, right? That's awesome. Right? All right, week one.
41:57
We've got some other games to get to before- Two, two games left on Sunday. Oh. Two games left on Sunday. Oh, right, and then we have the Monday night, of course. And we have Monday night. Yeah. Cowboys at Browns.
42:05
Browns still hanging on as two-and-a-half point favorites right now, 41 to 40-and-a-half out, out there. I do see one of those on the total. Uh, you got some issues here on the offensive line.
42:15
Tyler Guyton's gonna have to line up against Myles Garrett a lot on the other side, that he's, uh, he's, he's not, not his natural side. He's switching sides on the offensive line.
42:23
And then you have some issues lining up against Micah Parsons on the, uh, on the Browns' offensive line.
42:31
This is, you know, the Browns are, are as big of a question mark as any team is, not in terms of their players around their quarterback, but the quarterback himself. What are we getting from Deshaun Watson?
42:41
Which version? Are we getting old-school great Deshaun from Clemson, old-school good Deshaun from the Houston Texans, or after all this time, do we not have any idea what we have here? I think it's more the latter.
42:54
I, I, you, you know me. Like, I w- Deshaun Watson's great years, I, I thought he was gonna be awesome. But the, it, between the off-the-field stuff and injuries and everything, I don't know that you can expect...
43:04
I, I can't, I can't imagine betting the Browns side this week. I, well, I also think, again, like, well, like with the Dolphins, the Cowboys are a proven bully here. This is not a team they can bully.
43:12
They could actually get bullied- Yeah... by the Cleveland Browns. So, um, no outcome would surprise me here. There's no play. One prop bet I might make in this game is, uh, Dak over on attempts.
43:23
I just, I, I mean, anybody seen the Cowboys backfield recently? It's not, uh, very impressive. It was in 2017, uh, but it's not very impressive with Dalvin Cook and Ezekiel Elliott, uh, back there.
43:34
They got offensive linemen that they've switched in and out. Like, I, I think, I think the Browns are gonna kinda take that away, and it's gonna force Dak to pass a lot in this game.
43:41
So not a bet I've made yet, but I probably will make, uh, before, uh, kickoff. Okay, Sunday night, Rams at Lions. Lions out to four, four-and-a-half point favorites. Now 52 to 52-and-a-half total on this game.
43:55
All the pr- of all the primetime games, probably the one we've spoken about the least. Yeah. Obviously, we're running out of time here, so I'll just say this. I think four is just a point too many on the Rams.
44:02
I trust Sean McVay in an opening game, he says cautiously. Mm-hmm. Hoping he gives the ball to Puka Nacua. Um, so I'll take the, uh, if I did anything here, I would take the points. I am, I am not involved currently.
44:14
I, no bet for me. Did play Lions in millions, though. Did play Lions. Did play Lions in millions. Yeah, three and a half, uh, in Circa millions, did play Lions.
44:22
I will be submitting my millions 'cause I wanna get the Eagles pick in there, so I'll be submitting that today. Um, Joe Cirillo joins us on the other side. Uh, he does nights here at the network.
44:31
The name of the show is Cashing Out. He's kind enough to join us with all of his football thoughts. That's next, right here on the Numbers Game at VSiN, VSiN Sports Betting Network. [upbeat music]
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