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Sep 8, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 8, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 8, 2026
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38:38
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Transcript
0:00
Ladies and gentlemen, I know we read an average Joe twee- uh, promo there. Nothing average about this guy. It's Joe Sheehan, the author of the Joe Sheehan Newsletter.
0:09
You can follow him at joesheehan.com, joe_sheehan on Twitter. What do you know? It's Joe Sheehan. How you doing, Joe? What's happening, man? I'm res- supporting my guy, Hansel Rincon.
0:19
[laughs] Hey, hey, take that hat off. By the way- Mm... Doug Eddings, can we just start there? Messing up my hair, so- Yeah... don't wanna. Doug Eddings. What, what was that?
0:28
You're telling guys how to wear their hat now? What year is this, Doug? Get out of here. I, it, and it's not like Doug Eddings is this highly respected umpire.
0:37
Um, you know, you go back to 2005, he made that terrible call in the A- ALCS and then lied about it. He sh- you know, he called a strike on A.J. Pierzynski, then basically changed his mind.
0:46
It changed the whole course of that ALCS, that playoff series. He's been known for having massive... I mean, Doug Eddings is a guy that if you reached the plate on a fly, he would call it a strike.
0:54
He's one of the best reasons to have the ABS challenge system now. So, um, yeah, I just, completely out of line saying that to a guy. And then worse yet, after the game, he tagged in Hunter Goodman.
1:05
He basically said that Hunter Goodman brought it up to him, and kind of made it sound like he was basically, you know, you know, backing up Goodman when he brought it up. So just terrible. He did, he did apologize.
1:15
He did. Uh, you know, let's give him credit for that. Yeah. But, you know, E- Eddings is one of these guys. I have a thesis, guys, that umpires should have their jobs for 15 years.
1:22
Pay them really, really well, get them in the game young, and then after 15 years they're forced retirement. 'Cause then you don't get these guys that feel like they're bigger than the game. It's a great call.
1:31
It's a great call. Uh, talked about manager of the year yesterday, American League and National League. I broke it down by the numbers. Um,
1:39
I'm curious your thoughts, first of all, on who you would bet for manager of the year right now, and I'm curious if it, uh, if it jives with what I was talking about yesterday.
1:48
I, I agree with you as far as the American League. I think it's gotta be, uh, um, uh, Will Venable. I keep calling him Max. Max is his dad. Yeah. Uh, Will Venable, this team won 41 games two years ago.
1:57
They're probably going to make the playoffs this year.
2:00
The Manager of the Year award is more a narrative award, and specifically an award that's as much about what we thought about the team as what the manager actually does.
2:09
A lot of what a manager does is invisible to us on the outside, and even to reporters a lot of that stuff is unavailable.
2:14
So it really becomes, we thought you were X, you turned out to be this much better than X, and we're gonna give all of the credit for that to the manager. In this case, I don't have a problem with it.
2:23
A lot of these, a lot of this roster has only played in the major leagues under Venable. Venable's done a really good job with, you know, really no catcher all year with Kyle Teal being hurt.
2:31
They only had two outfielders for much of the year. I think he gets a lot of credit, earned a lot of credit for the work that he did there. So I think Venable is the choice of the L- AL.
2:38
But I do wanna make the point that Chad Tracy, and I know I'm talking my own book here because I gave out Tracy on the show at 28 to 1. I think Kelly unfortunately followed me on that one. It's probably not gonna happen.
2:49
Now, you brought up yesterday the wins that a team has relative to its preseason expectations, the Vegas lines. Yes, sir. That's true, the Red Sox aren't gonna hit their number.
2:58
But they started out 9 and 19 under Alex Cora. Excuse me, 10 and 17. Under Chad Tracy, they're 70 and 48. That's a 99 win pace, and it's actually the second-best record in the American League to the Rays.
3:10
They're a game behind the Rays since Tracy took over. So I think comparing them to their preseason number isn't entirely fair to Tracy.
3:17
And to make a similar case in the National League, uh, Don Mattingly took over a Phillies team that was 9 and 19. He's gone 72 and 44 with them. That's 101 win pace.
3:27
So looking at the preseason number again, the work that he did is actually above their preseason number, but he's saddled with that 9 and 19.
3:36
Now, again, most of the time it's just how did the team do relative to expectations?
3:40
But with these two situations where the two managers taking over after bad starts, I think you've really gotta look at how the team performed under them rather than just the numbers themselves.
3:50
I think those are, that's a great point, Joe, on both counts.
3:53
I think your, I think your instinct on Venable with the White Sox is still the correct one despite the, no one loves the Red Sox more than me, right, for what they did in July and what they might be doing here in September.
4:03
But I think you're, I, I think just the way we perceive the White Sox is- Right... is probably gonna override that Chad Tracy note. Uh, what about the la- and I'll, I'll leave it at this.
4:13
The other thing that I brought about in the National League was there's never been a back-to-back-to-back manager of the year.
4:20
So to give it to Pat Murphy of the Brewers, who is the short shot right now, would be history. Do you think voters would be unwilling to do that through the lens of history? Do they care about that?
4:32
It is a different set of voters for each of these awards every year. Remember, it's not like, I know the NBA, I wanna say it's the same pool pretty much every year.
4:40
In MLB, each, the, the aw- the four major awards rotate through each chapter of the BBWAA. So two guys from New York, two guys from Phoenix, two guys from, from Oakland, Sacramento, wherever.
4:52
Um, and it's a different set each year. So I don't know that you can say, well, they're gonna, they, there's voter fatigue, because it's a different set of voters.
5:00
The guys who are voting for manager of the year in the National League this year are gonna be different than the ones that voted last year, are gonna probably be different from the vo- ones that voted two years ago.
5:08
So I don't know that you can say, "Well, they did it last year, they did it the year before." There isn't gonna be voter fatigue because the voters aren't actually tired. It's a different set of voters.
5:16
I personally think we've gone too far in the direction of, oh, let's give it to the small market team that exceeded expectations by the mo- by the most. I would personally give it to Weiss.
5:25
Um, and that shocks me, 'cause I didn't think he was a very good manager in Colorado.
5:28
But you look at what he's done with that bullpen, you look at what they've done with so many injuries to that lineup, I think he's done the best job of any manager this year.
5:36
I think we don't give enough credit to guys with the hardest jobs. I look at Aaron Boone, I look at Dave Roberts.
5:40
I'm not voting for them, but we've basically eliminated guys with high expectations at the start of the year. Yeah.
5:46
When if you actually look at the work they've had to do, again, through injuries, particularly for Dave Roberts with all his pitching injuries, I don't think we give those guys enough credit.
5:53
All right, rapid fire final three things. One, uh, did you take the Shohei announcement to mean no pitching in the, in the playoffs either? I did. I haven't expected him to pitch for a while now.
6:02
I think they'll shut him down. They'll make sure, 'cause guys, if you look at him, it's really, the knee is affecting his hitting now. They've gotta get that, get him healthy enough to hit, not worry about the pitching.
6:11
They obviously have so many arms they can use, it's not about volume. And yeah, you will miss his upside, but right now they've gotta focus on getting him straight as a hitter. All right.
6:19
Phillies, you're on the Phillies today. Yeah, I, this might be an off line. I got 'em at minus 130 at Caesars. It's 140, 145 elsewhere. Andrew Painter's been great since coming off the IL in July.
6:30
Going up against an Astros team that frankly just isn't very good. 65 and 79 third order record. There's a big gap between these two teams.
6:37
The Phillies also got to reset their bullpen yesterday after working it hard over the weekend with that Jesús Luzardo shutout. So give me the Phillies over the Astros. All right. And you have two futures for us.
6:45
Not just one, but two. What are they? Uh, the Yankees to win the division. I saw this as high as plus 425. They're four games back of the Rays. The gap in the schedules over the next two weeks is massive.
6:55
The Yankees are gonna get to play the Rockies and Mets at home this week, then they'll go to, uh, Minnesota and Arizona. The Rays, they do play the Athletics, but you've got the Red Sox in there.
7:03
Uh, you got the Astros in there. They play the Braves this week. The pitching's really starting to fall apart, guys. The bullpen's been bottom six in baseball over the last, uh, 30 days.
7:11
The rotation, Rasmussen's over his, uh, career innings high. Nick Martinez is about to get there. Shane McClanahan is hurt. So I really think the Yankees have a chance.
7:20
With Judge back, they're 36 and 23 with Judge in the lineup, they've got a chance to catch the Rays over the next few weeks. They play four in the season's final week. And then in a, a World Series exacta.
7:31
Yeah, I didn't like the Phillies at plus 1400, so I decided to pair them up with the Yankees, who I think are the best team in the AL going into the playoffs.
7:37
The Phillies right now, if you look at the shape of them, Gil, they look so much like last year's Dodgers, it's scary.
7:43
I think this is a chance for them, plus 6500, to, to face the Yankees and beat them in the World Series. 65 to one- Ooh... Phillies over Yankees. Like it. Joe calls his shot. All right, Joe, thank you.
7:52
Appreciate it so much. Thanks, fellas. Joe Sinn, best in the business.
8:01
Jeff Erickson, uh, among his many accomplishments, of course, is, uh, co-host of, of course, uh, you know, Prop Points, not necessarily this time of year- Mm-hmm... but other times of year- Right...
8:14
which he does with Nick Whalen. But what he is really all about, and he doesn't brag about this ever, he is the founder of Rotowire, co-founder of Rotowire. Let's give him his flowers, as the kids say.
8:24
It's Jeff Erickson, everybody. You can follow him on Twitter at jeff_erickson. That's Jeff with a J. Jeff, good morning. Good morning, Gil. Good morning, Kelly.
8:32
Kelly, great to see you, uh, a coup- week and a half ago at, at Circa there. Uh, wish I coulda hung out with the late night crowd.
8:38
I heard the hot, the, the craps table was pretty hot, but, uh, missed out on that experience there. It, it was, but it was a party in Barry's. It was a party.
8:44
There was li- there was like 90 people of, uh, from the contest weekend down at Barry's one night. Where was I? You were not here. Oh. Oh, I was not here? Yeah. Yeah, you weren't here. Here in Vegas? Yeah. Oh. Okay.
8:55
No, no, no, that weekend you were. Yeah. I don't know why you weren't. Eh, no one calls me. I don't know why you weren't Friday.
8:59
Uh- Jeff, to the, to the few people on earth, to the few fantasy leagues that have yet to have their fantasy draft, that are having it tonight, you say to those leagues what?
9:12
Uh, they make sure you just read everything that the last second there, 'cause there's always injuries, there's always something new that's happening there.
9:19
Like, the whole New England running back situation, that's changing, uh, some of our ranks there, for instance. It doesn't look like Henderson's gonna be able to play.
9:26
Uh, and it looks like Stevenson will be the lead guy, and he might be the lead guy for a while too. That's where we finished the season with them in the playoffs, when Henderson was healthy.
9:34
So little things like that are always huge. I would always say, like, go in, if you know your draft slot, know the league rules, know how... 'Cause every league is different.
9:43
Um, and know, know exactly, have, have a little bit of a plan.
9:46
You don't have to be, like, wired out, "Okay, I gotta take a receiver here, I gotta take a running back there," but ha- have a general idea how you wanna tackle the player pool. Okay.
9:55
Um, before we get to baseball, 'cause I know you have a bunch of baseball for us, what is the, what is the most outlying Jeff Erickson season-long NFL take?
10:04
What do, what do you believe that you haven't heard much from elsewhere on, on the same level? Okay. Um, I am a Rashee Rice fader. Um, I w- don't have any shares of him in, uh, my 20-plus leagues.
10:17
He would, he would have to fall into the late fifth round for me to draft him this year. And I know that could keep me up at night. I mean, he could have a great year with the Chiefs.
10:24
But I, I have plenty of layers of skepticism with him, whether it's his own health, he looked really stiff at the start of training camp coming back from yet another procedure.
10:33
You know, one misstep and he may be out of the league. I have concerns about whether Patrick Mahomes is gonna be the full Patrick Mahomes right away off, off the jump.
10:41
Uh, and, and after week one, the schedule does lighten up for the Chiefs, but they finish really in a tough spot as well. So I, I really don't have a whole lot of the Chief's offense this year. Okay.
10:51
Let's go to Major League Baseball. Uh, today we have a prop. You have a Freddy Peralta prop, and I was... [laughs] It's just, it's, it's, uh, it's at four and a half. His Ks are at four and a half.
11:03
Um, how are you playing Freddy Peralta, over or under? I'm taking the over. Uh, I'm taking the over on Freddy Peralta's Ks at four and a half, minus 111 at FanDuel is the best price I saw.
11:14
Uh, since joining the Rays, he's nearly doubled his K per nine and nearly cut his walks in half. He's just throwing more strikes.
11:22
It's w- it's almost like the Rays are good at this and getting the most out of their pitchers. And I, I, I c- I think that continues today against Atlanta.
11:30
Uh, uh, you know, it's a, it's a tougher step up for him, for sure, but I, I, I like almost everything that he has done. Uh, w- s- in the last three starts he's been a lot better of a pitcher.
11:39
It was, it was bumpy at first, but keep in mind, his first Rays start was at Coors Field. His second one was in Sac Town and it was steaming hot.
11:46
So you start there and you look at his game log and you're like, "Okay, the Rays didn't fix him yet." Well, you look at what he's done recently, he's been a lot better.
11:53
And he, he went one inning too long in a start against Baltimore, but the K to walk has been so much better. 17 to one in his last three outings.
12:01
Rays and Braves, each respectively with four game leads in their divisions. Rays four games over the Yankees, Braves four games over the Phillies. Um, 18 games left for the Braves, 19 left for the Rays.
12:13
So they have a bit of a cushion here as they start this interleague set. And they, of course, have designs on the respective number one seeds in their leagues. Rays in the driver's seat right now in the American League.
12:24
Braves still gotta get past the Brewers, and the Dodgers, by the way, as well. But a number two seed would be just as dandy.
12:32
Not just as dandy, but also great to have that bye and miss the best of three to start the post-season. Uh, okay. Against the Cubs, no less, by the way. Against the Cubs, no less. That's right. That, that, that's brutal.
12:44
Uh, okay. You have a team total today. Are we going to Sack Town, I believe? We are. Um, and hey, I, I'm gonna keep going back to this well. Uh, and Jack Perkins at home is the, is the real, uh, factor here. I, I...
12:58
Jack Perkins has skills. He is someone that I, you know, that I think could've been a, you know, quality pitcher this league. He still knows how to miss bats. 116 strikeouts in 98 innings this year.
13:08
But if you look at the home road splits, he's getting butchered at home. 7.04 ERA, 1.60 whip. The, the Ra- I mean, the, excuse me. The A's have moved him up and down, out of the rotation, into the bullpen.
13:19
For a while he was a closer, then he wasn't. They just really don't have a cohesive plan with him, and I think it's really messed with his results this year.
13:25
They just sent him down, but then they had to call him back up because T- JT Gin went on the, uh, IL with an elbow injury. So Perkins, back in the lineup. Uh, back in the rotation today starting against the Jays.
13:36
I was gonna think ab- You could, you could also take a look at the, uh, total in the game.
13:39
It's nine and a half, but José Soriano's on the mound for the Blue Jays, and I think at least he, he's one of their better pitchers.
13:44
So we'll avoid that aspect of it there and just go with the team total on the Ra- on the Blue Jays against the A's instead. All right. Too many Rays and Jays and A's in my mind. I keep conflating.
13:53
[laughs] Uh, d- I didn't get a Blue Jays win with Dylan Cease on the hill yesterday, but I do have the, uh, Red Sox with five wins here in September. Blue Jays with four, so both in contention.
14:03
All right, I have, uh, two pre-flop season win totals, neither of which is on the right side of 500 right now. I have the under 79 and a half on the Guardians. They're a game over 500. How, I have no idea.
14:17
And then there's the Rangers, who I have over 83 and a half on. They're 71 and 73. So these are still in play, but they're not feeling very good. But you are on the Rangers today? Yeah, this is a Bryce Miller fade.
14:29
Uh, he's in the rotation only 'cause Hemer- Emerson Hancock, uh, landed on the IL with a groin issue. And they, and the Mariners, they're stubborn. They, they stick with the six-man rotation.
14:39
Uh, they trade away Luis Castillo, but then they call up Kade Anderson. I... The whole Ma- the whole Mariners season is, is a study in frustration. You wanna talk about a team that is underachieved.
14:48
You know, the, you know, the Tigers are there, the Mets are there. But here are the, the Mariners deserve their scorn as well.
14:53
And Bryce Miller, after coming back from the IL to start the season, was really brilliant for about six weeks. He hasn't been the same pitcher since then. He was okay in his last time out.
15:02
Still gave up a decent number of, uh, base runners. Couldn't get through five. We're getting plus money on the Rangers to win straight up.
15:07
I know Cody Bradford hasn't been great on the, in their, in his own right since coming back.
15:11
But at +122 on FanDuel, I, I think, I think they're, the Rangers are at least the equal of the team as the Mariners, and I'm fading Bryce Miller.
15:20
Mariners the most disappointing s- uh, team in all of baseball this year, would you say, Jeff? Right there with the Mets and the Tigers.
15:25
Tigers, I mean, they deserve a little extra scorn because they were right there, and then they decided to sell off at the trade deadline anyhow.
15:31
And you can simultaneously like what they got in the Scubal deal and hate that they made it in the first place. Yeah. Mariners five and a half out of a wild card, six out of the division now.
15:40
It is looking bleak for the Seattle Mariners. Jeff fading them with the Rangers today. And then finally, uh, we have a, uh, a wild card race obviously in both leagues.
15:50
The NL One is kind of mano a mano right now for that third wild card spot between the Diamondbacks and the Padres. What are you doing here? How are you betting this?
15:59
So it's interesting, because I wanna talk a little Diamondbacks. Uh, I wanna use this as a platform to talk about them. 77 and 68 this year. Uh, they're, you know, uh, they're kind of beating the odds.
16:08
They have a exactly even run differential on the season. Their starting pitching isn't great. We're talking about Aaron Judge coming back, but Corin Burns makes his return today as well. Yes.
16:18
And this was a little bit, little bit of a surprise because he had a setback earlier. Probably he's not gonna go very deep in this game.
16:23
I think he threw, like, 43 pitches in his last outing, which wasn't even a rehab start. It was this, uh, like a simulated game basically.
16:31
Um, he, he's, he, he, uh, uh, but he's trying to jump in and try and jump in time for the playoff race here.
16:37
I, I think the Diamondbacks are a fascinating team because, you know, they, they, it's been a, you know, the Ketel Marte thing has been a big mess.
16:44
Their, the guy that opened the year as the closer is no longer on the team again. This is, like, a Diamondbacks thing that they do. Their starting pitching is just lukewarm, and yet here they are nine games over 500.
16:54
They're like the anti-Mariners. [upbeat music] Jeff Erickson, everybody. Jeff, sorry I missed you when you were here, man. Woulda li- would've liked to have, uh, met you in person for the first time. Thank you.
17:02
Always appreciate, always appreciate you coming on. Thank you so much. My pleasure. Jeff Erickson, everybody. Jeff underscore Erickson. And not the G-E-O-F-F, as we always say. That's right. But the real Jeff with a J.
17:15
I don't know which is realer. [laughs] I just felt like saying. Mark Borchard, he is BaseWinner. You can follow him at basewinner.com.
17:22
He joins us now from an undisclosed location somewhere in the desert, the great BaseWinner. Mark, how you doing, man? I'm doing good, Gil. I'm really excited about this season. It's been a f- it's been really fun.
17:34
The, uh, the, the whole month market has just been incredible. I was just really bummed out because I was looking forward to doing, I... Last month I, I rolled out this division probability thing and, and it was cool.
17:45
But the DraftKings is, is not doing division- Oh... uh, odds this, this, uh, month, which I hope that they bring that back. I don't...
17:53
I think that maybe it's because of the football season and, you know, people care more about, I guess, this, this game coming up. Uh, I, I can't even, I can't even tell you what night.
18:02
Is it Wednesday night or Thursday night, Gil? Both. I can't even tell you what night it is, right? They're both at home.
18:06
Oh, they're, they're playing both, both, both times So, but, but then, then the division, uh, uh, win total markets. But that was a real fun one and, and 'cause you could go back and forth during the month.
18:16
But anyway, the, the, uh, I think there's still value, Gil, in this, uh, to win the division market. Uh, you know, I'm showing the Dodgers, and let me see if I can pull that, pull that up here.
18:27
And, and this is, this is based on their component ratings, you know? They're the best team in baseball by a long way.
18:33
I've got them 1.88 run differential, uh, for this particular month, and then that's based on all the advanced stats that I use. And the next team is the Phillies at 1.21.
18:43
So, you know, you might roll your eyes at this projection for me, but I have them at 71% to win this, uh, the, the monthly, uh, the monthly race. Or, to have the best record, rather.
18:54
And so that's minus 244, and they're plus 140. So I mean, it's, it's a, uh, I think it's an incredible overlay and I, I think that people... And you look at their schedule, too, kind of makes sense.
19:04
I think they play the, the Giants 25 times out of the last 26 games. [laughs] Yeah. But, but that... And which is good, which will help them.
19:11
But, uh, I, that, that's the one thing for, for the monthly market that I, I'm seeing that the Dodgers are still, even though that they're only plus 140, but you say, "Only," man, you know, if you can get plus 140, y- y- I think it's a good bet.
19:22
Are you suggesting that the San Francisco Giants are not good at baseball? Is that what I got out of that? Interesting. Interesting. Y- uh, it seems like- Yeah...
19:29
with the Giants, I've been playing them over in the first half a lot. It's like they're, uh, I mean, so offensively, uh, you know, they're, they're, I, I...
19:36
Which is weird, because I have them offensively, like, 30th, but I, I'm s- I'm still p- I'm still playing them over.
19:42
So it, it's, it's an interesting thing, and it, it just goes to show you, uh, you know, the line sometimes, uh, you know, the, the line's just not priced right.
19:50
So the, what, that's, that's the thing that, that strikes me about the Giants on that one. Two rapid-fire questions. One, the, uh, gentleman who tweeted earlier about the Guardians.
19:58
What is your outlook on them for the rest of the season? Well, I think they're good value to win the division still. I've got them at minus 155, and I think they're plus 120 in, in the playoff market.
20:09
And then not as much in the, in the division. I think they're plus 400. I, I, they should be plus 365.
20:15
But again, it, you know, it comes back to the, uh, the combined ratings and, and I'm, I'm looking at Cleveland and I'm seeing the fifth, fifth in starting pitching, which has been true since the, uh, the, the All-Star break.
20:28
They're, in base winner ERA, they're, they're fifth. If you look at K minus BB, that probably, uh, translates as well.
20:34
Relief pitching is 10th and fielding is number one, and I don't think, and offensively they're not good. They're, they're 25th. But I think you throw everything into the mixer and, and, and I, I will stand by that.
20:44
Now I know why the guy asked me that, Gil, 'cause it seems like I play Cleveland every day. And I do. Uh, but the, I think the, the, the numbers support it.
20:52
Uh, but what I wanted to talk about, Gil, if you don't mind- Please... me, me hijacking this, the segment, is you really broke down that Manager of the Year really well yesterday.
21:02
And after saying that, I totally disagree with you. [laughs] Because I think, I think that Lovullo should, should be in, in consideration for this.
21:10
You know, you're looking at a, at a, at a Diamondbacks team, have been bottom five in my starting pitcher, pitching ratings for probably the last two, two and a half months.
21:19
And if you look at since the All-Star break, this is an interesting stat. K minus BB, starting pitching from the All-Star break, you've got the Diamondbacks 29th and the Padres 30th.
21:31
So I mean, these two teams are, are in contention. Oh, by the way, I think San Diego's still a little bit of value, uh, over the Diamondbacks.
21:37
But I think if the Diamondbacks get in, based on the fact that their starting pitching is, is, is bottom five, the relief pitching is about middling, and the offense is decent to maybe a top 10 offense.
21:49
But the other thing, too, and so if you can manage a crappy team in, into the playoffs, I think that, that warrants consideration for, for Manager of the Year, Gil. Okay.
21:57
And the other thing, too, is, uh, uh, Ketel Marte, which is the, one of the weirdest situations I've ever seen in baseball.
22:04
The guy went AWOL, and then he was, uh, playing cards at the casino, and so, like, you could tell that, that Lovullo was really bothered by that, but he handled it really good.
22:13
All he said was, "If it was me, I wouldn't be in the casino, uh, uh, playing cards while my team is playing baseball." And so he handled that well without admonishing the player, and so now Marte's back.
22:24
And so anyway, I think Lovullo should be the Manager of the Year if the D-Backs get into the playoffs. Mark, you know me.
22:29
I just simply presented the facts, and then I let the hate wash over me, like you have done right here. I, I res- Oh, I wouldn't say, I wouldn't say hate. [laughs] Those were really well-researched ideas. Thank you.
22:39
And, uh, uh, and, and, uh, it's hard to disagree with them because they're, they're, they're fact-based. Yeah. And, and they're, they're historically based.
22:46
But my, my whole contention is I think that maybe you should look and see what the, what the guy has done with the, with the, uh, you know, the chicken salad that, the, the, the chicken S he's turned into chicken salad, right?
22:57
So that's good. Mark, you have 45 seconds. What are your plays of the day, sir? Okay. This is speaking of the Padres bullpen, or the Padres starting pitching being bad, 29th in baseball.
23:06
This guy's been awful, Casey Mize, and I'm th- I'm gonna go with the first five Washington. I've got 'em plus a ru- plus a half a run, minus 114. I think it should be, like, plus a half a run, minus 150.
23:18
Now that's my f- that's my play. And then the parlay, Gil, The Miz and Scooball. [laughs] Doesn't get any chalkier than that. Yeah. But the numbers sup- the numbers support this.
23:29
And, uh, I, it, it's even money, and I think that that's a steal, uh, with, with Mizorowski and, and Scooball tonight. The Miz Scooball Moneyline parlay. Steve Fezzik's head just exploded off his body. Mark, love you.
23:42
Appreciate it. Thank you so much, man. Gil, my pleasure. Thanks. Mark Borchardt, Base Winner, everybody. Uh, I love the baseball guys like Borchardt and Spohrer. They are so locked into baseball- Oh, yeah...
23:52
that they're like, "When does football start again?" Whatever. "Is it tomorrow? Is it the next?" It's both. They have no idea. None. Paul Carr, Champions League plays next on a Numbers Game right here at VSiN.
24:02
Mark Borchardt, he is Base Winner. You can follow him at basewinner.com. He joins us now from an undisclosed location somewhere in the desert. The great Base Winner. Mark, how you doing, man? I'm doing good, Gil.
24:14
I'm really excited about this season. It's been a f- it's been really fun. The, uh, the, the whole month market has just been incredible.
24:21
I was just really bummed out because I was looking forward to doing, I, last month I, I rolled out this division probability thing, a- a- and it was cool. But the DraftKings is, is not doing division- Oh...
24:33
uh, odds this, this, uh, month, which I hope that they bring that back. I don't, I think that maybe it's because of the football season and, you know, people care more about, I guess, this, this game coming up.
24:44
Uh, I, I can't even, I can't even tell you what night. Is it Wednesday night or Thursday night, Gil? Both. I can't even tell you what night it is, right? They're both there.
24:50
Oh, they're, they're playing both, both, both times. So, but, but then, then the division, uh, uh, win total markets. But that was a real fun one and, and 'cause you could go back and forth during the month.
24:59
But anyway, the, the, uh, I think there's still value, Gil, in this, uh, to win the division market. Uh, you know, I'm showing the Dodgers, and let me see if I can pull that, pull that up here.
25:11
And, and this is, this is based on their component ratings, you know? They're the best team in baseball by a long way.
25:17
I've got them 1.88 run differential, uh, for this particular month, and then that's based on all the advanced stats that I use, and the next team is the Phillies at 1.21.
25:27
So, you know, you might roll your eyes at this projection for me, but I have them at 71% to win this, uh, the, the monthly, uh, the monthly race, or have the best record rather.
25:38
And so that's minus 244 and they're plus 140. So I mean, it's, it's a, uh, I think it's an incredible overlay and I, I think that people... And you look at their schedule too, kind of makes sense.
25:48
I think they play the, the Giants 25 times- [laughs]... out of the last 26 games. But- Yeah... but that, and which is good, which will help them.
25:55
But, uh, uh, that, that's the one thing for, for the monthly market that I, I'm seeing that the Dodgers are still, even though that they're only plus 140, but you say, "Only, man, you know, if you can get plus 140, I think it's a good bet."
26:06
Are you suggesting that the San Francisco Giants are not good at baseball? Is that what I got out of that? Interesting. Interesting. Yeah. It, it seems like- Yeah...
26:12
with the Giants, I've been playing them over in the first half a lot.
26:16
It's like they're, uh, I mean, so offensively, uh, you know, they're, they're, I, I, which is weird because I have them offensively, like, 30th, but I, I'm, I'm still pl- I'm still playing them over, so it, it's, it's an interesting thing and it, it just goes to show you, uh, you know, the line sometimes, uh, you know, the, the line's just not priced right.
26:34
So the, but that's, that's the thing that, that strikes me about the Giants on that one. Two rapid fire questions. One, the, uh, gentleman who tweeted earlier about the Guardians.
26:42
What is your outlook on them for the rest of the season? Well, I think they're good value to win the division still. I've got 'em at minus 155, and I think they're plus 120 in, in the playoff market.
26:53
And then not as much in the, in the division. I think they're plus 400. I, I, they should be plus 365.
26:59
But again, it, you know, it comes back to the, uh, the combined ratings and, and I'm, I'm looking at Cleveland and I'm seeing the fifth, fifth in starting pitching, which has been true since the, uh, the, the All-Star break.
27:12
They're, in base winner ERA, they're, they're fifth. If you look at K minus BB, that probably, uh, translates as well.
27:18
Relief pitching is 10th and fielding is number one, and I don't think, and offensively they're not good, they're, they're 25th, but I think you throw everything into the mixer and, and I, I will stand by that.
27:28
Now I know why the guy asked me that, Gil, 'cause it seems like I play Cleveland every day, and I do. Uh, but the, I think the, the, the numbers support it.
27:36
Uh, but what I wanted to talk about, Gil, if you don't mind- Please... me hijacking this, the segment, is you really broke down that Manager of the Year really well yesterday.
27:46
And after saying that, I totally disagree with you- [laughs]... because I think, I think that Lavello should, should be in, in consideration for this.
27:54
You know, you're looking at a, at a, at a Diamondbacks team, have been bottom five in my starting pitcher, pitching ratings for probably the last two, two and a half months.
28:03
And if you look at since the All-Star break, this is an interesting stat. K minus BB, starting pitching from the All-Star break, you've got the Diamondbacks 29th and the Padres 30th.
28:14
So I mean, these two teams are, are in contention. Oh, by the way, I think San Diego's still a little bit of value, uh, over the Diamondbacks.
28:21
But I think if the Diamondbacks get in, based on the fact that their starting pitching is, is, is bottom five, the relief pitching is about middling, and the offense is decent to maybe a top 10 offense.
28:33
But the other thing too, and so if you can manage a crappy team in, into the playoffs, I think that, that warrants consideration for, for Manager of the Year, Gil. Okay.
28:41
And the other thing too is, uh, uh, Ketel Marte, which is the one of the weirdest situations I've ever seen in baseball. The guy went AWOL, and then he was, uh, playing cards at the casino.
28:53
And so, like, you could tell that, that Lavello was really bothered by that, but he handled it really good.
28:57
All he said was, "If it was me, I wouldn't be in the casino, uh, uh, playing cards while my team was playing baseball." And so he handled that well without admonishing the player, and so now Marte's back.
29:07
And so anyway, I think Lavello should be the Manager of the Year if the D-Backs get into the playoffs.
29:12
Mark, you know me, I just simply presented the facts, and then I let the hate wash over me, like you have done right here.
29:18
I, I res- I- Oh, I wouldn't say, I wouldn't say hate [laughs] Those were really well-researched ideas. Thank you.
29:23
And, uh, uh, and, and, uh, it's hard to disagree with them because they're, they're, they're fact-based- Yeah... and, and they're, they're historically based.
29:30
But my, my whole contention is I think that maybe you should look and see what the, what the guy has done with the, with the, uh, you know, the chicken salad that, that, the, the chicken S he's turned into chicken salad, right?
29:41
So that's good. Mark, you have 45 seconds. What are your plays of the day, sir? Okay, this is speaking of the Padres bullpen, or the Padres starting pitching being bad, 29th in baseball.
29:50
This guy's been awful, Casey Mize, and I'm t- I'm gonna go with the first five Washington. I've got 'em plus a ru- plus a half a run, minus 114. I think it should be, like, plus a half a run, minus 150.
30:02
Now that's my f- that's my play. And then the parlay, Gil, The Miz and Scooball. [laughs] Doesn't get any chonkier than that. Yeah.
30:09
But the numbers sup- the numbers support this, and, uh, it, it's even money, and I think that that's a steal, uh, with, with Mizorowski and, and Scooball tonight. The Miz Scooball Moneyline parlay.
30:21
Steve Fezzik's head just exploded off his body. Mark, love you. Appreciate it. Thank you so much, man. Yo, my pleasure. Thanks Mark Borchert, base winner, everybody.
30:31
Uh, I love the baseball guys like Borchert and Spohrer. They are so locked into baseball- Oh, yeah... that they're like, "When does football start again?" Whatever. Is it tomorrow? Is it the next? It's both.
30:41
They have no idea. None. Paul Carr, Champions League plays next on a Numbers Game right here at VSiN. Speaking of coming up soon, we have Champions League game coming up soon. We gotta, we gotta get Paul Carr's plays.
30:57
Let's go. Paul Carr joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter @PaulCarr.
31:01
True Media Networks director of operations and all things that go on inside the, the, the f- the r- walls of- Yeah, that's pretty much it. Yeah, yeah... True Media Networks under the roof- Yeah... of o- yeah.
31:14
Uh, okay, Paul. Roof, walls. Yeah. Good morning to you, sir, first of all. Thank you for doing this. Hello. Um- Yeah... can you explain again to the,
31:21
the sort of novice American betting audience what exactly the Champions League is? Yeah. This is essentially the NCAA tournament if, uh, instead of the NCAA, we have all of Europe.
31:32
So you've got the top one to five teams from most of the leagues in Europe all in this 36 team group stage first. You play eight games, and the top 24 move on to the knockout rounds, which start in January or February.
31:45
So yeah, it's, it's essentially, in, essentially the NCAA tournament but played concurrently with all the league seasons, rather than as a post-season tournament. Okay. And then it begins today? Today's the first day.
31:55
It starts today. Yeah. Okay. Which feels early, but Labor Day has messed everything up. We start in 10 minutes here, basically. Oh. Well, uh, hold on. Okay. W- let's do that first, then. What's the pick in 10 minutes?
32:06
Uh, I'm taking Club Brugge to beat Aston Villa. I played this at +150 this morning. I've seen it inch up to +160 some places, so check your books. Uh, this is a fade of Aston Villa, largely.
32:16
They, talked about them, uh, they, they didn't score against Hull over the weekend, which was good for us. Uh, but they've really struggled so far this season.
32:24
Lost their top couple scorers, uh, haven't found their rhythm yet, and Brugge is generally pretty good at home in the Champions League. They drew Barcelona, they drew Atlético.
32:31
Uh, last season they beat Monaco, they beat Marseille, which are decent French teams. So Club Brugge, uh, to win this one at home.
32:38
They've got a new keeper, Yann Sommer, who played for Inter Milan, uh, has a lot of Champions League experience. So I'll take Brugge to win this. I took, got it at +150, but you can probably find a little better now.
32:48
Aston Villa, of course, is the Prem. Kelly, where's Club Brugge from? Uh, I don't know. France League 1. [laughs] No. Belgium. It's a neighbor, neighboring country. Good, good call. Belgium. What league do they play in?
33:03
Yeah. Belgium Pro League. Sure. Next door. The j- yeah. Don't, don't make that sound again. It's good effort. That was pretty, that was a long groan you had to go in there. [laughs] I was try- I was trying to think.
33:12
It was. That was very long. Try to stretch it out there. [laughs] Club Brugge to beat Aston Villa. That starts in less than 10 minutes. Sorry about that, y'all. +150 on Club Brugge.
33:20
Let's go to the other two plays while we have you here. What do you got otherwise? Yeah, these are both tomorrow. We'll take under two and a half in Napoli/Arsenal. This is all about Arsenal.
33:29
They've had the best defense in the world for, like, a year or two, and still have it, it looks like. Uh, were runner-up in Champions League last year, so I think they're just gonna grind this one out.
33:38
You know, they're on the road. Uh, would love to win this one one-nil, as Arsenal kind of does. Uh, yeah, this is fairly straightforward there. Napoli's off to a, you know, so-so start in Serie A in Italy.
33:49
Uh, they, let's see, lost over the weekend. They lost two out of three, rather, uh, to start Serie A. And they're fine. They're one of the better teams there, but they're not a high-flying sort of team either.
33:57
So Arsenal will keep this one tight, not let Napoli do a lot. I don't think we'll see many goals here. Under two and a half -110. Napoli and Arsenal, under two and a half goals. And then PSG versus Slovan Bratislava.
34:10
Slovan Bratislava from? Slovenia League 1. Slovakia. Dang it. I was close. [laughs] Is, did you say Slovenia? Are you combining- He's-... Slovakia and Slovenia- He's, he's, he's-... trying to give, get either way?
34:22
That's exactly what he was doing. Yeah, that's exactly. Yeah. He's trying to split the difference. [laughs] All right, what do you have in that one? All right.
34:28
This is the rare, uh, you get to lay three and a half goals opportunity here. I, I'll lay the three and a half with PSG at even money. This game's tomorrow. Uh, PSG is PSG again.
34:37
They've won the last couple Champions League titles. Uh, Slovan Bratislava is one of the probably three worst teams in this league phase.
34:44
They had to scrape by Celtic in the playoffs to get here, and were really outplayed for the most part, but got through. A little bit lucky there. They have won eight straight Slovakian League titles.
34:53
Uh, they have a new manager, Yaya Touré. Some people will remember from playing with Manchester City and Ivory Coast.
34:58
But, I mean, last year Slovan was in the Conference League, which is the third tier, you know, the CBI of European soccer.
35:06
They did not get out of the league phase there, and that's obviously not a good sign now that they're in, essentially, the NCAA tournament to get out, and they're playing maybe the best team, uh, the favorite or co-favorite, depending on your odds.
35:17
So I will lay three and a half with PSG at home getting even money. Okay. Paul, have you ever laid three and a half goals before on this show? Huh? Okay. I think he has. We have? Yeah.
35:26
Uh, definitely in, uh, like the US Women's World Cup. Like, when they played Thailand- Mm... and ended up winning 13-nil, that was a pretty easy, it might have been four or five and a half in that one.
35:35
Um, probably in some Champions League game like this before. I think Byron last year against somebody might have done that. So yeah, but it's only these opportunities like that, kind of early rounds of tournaments.
35:46
Are you, we were just, what were you p- what was your hypothetical off air? You were like, "If the NFL," what was that story? Oh, if the NF- I was just saying the World Cup did such a great job- Yeah...
35:55
that if the NFL, no, uh, I said, like, if they didn't play this season. Let's say it started, like, in two months. Yeah. I'd be really jacked up about soccer here- Mm-hmm... for the first couple months.
36:04
Because- Like, the Champions League and the Premier League... because the World Cup sucked you in so much. They did a great job. Yeah, yeah. All right. Yeah, they did a great job of building the soccer excitement. Yep.
36:10
Building the soccer excitement. And NFL, NFL just wipes it out. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Unfortunately. NFL wipes it all out.
36:15
I don't know if you know this, but the Super Bowl's on Valentine's Day, speaking of wiping out stuff this year. Mm. Yeah, seriously. Ah. I'm gonna have to start, uh, greasing the wheels to figure all r- out that one.
36:24
Yeah. Mm. There's no greasing of any wheels. Just happened. Eh, too bad. [laughs] Gone. All right. Odds to win the Champions League. I don't know if you have- Yeah... any thoughts on this.
36:33
Paris Saint-Germaine, Germain is the, uh, short shot, as is Bar- Barcelona, Kelly. These are tight. Uh, as is Arsenal. Yeah. You have three co-favorites, all at +550. Bayern Munich only
36:45
At six to one, so really close as well. Real Madrid- Mm-hmm... plus 650. The usual suspects basically, right? Yep. Yeah, there's nothing interesting here to me.
36:53
I mean, if, if, even if you don't know anything and you look at this, you can tell it's kind of a big shrug emoji, which is true. And frankly, these odds will look almost identical in January because- Mm-hmm...
37:02
like I said, 24 out of 32 teams go through. So if someone, the, you can, if you finish top eight, you get a bye to the round of 16. So there is a slight advantage there.
37:12
So one or two of these teams might slip back and have to play an extra round, but chances are that's not against a very good team relatively. So yeah, so these odds are gonna look basically the same.
37:21
I don't have anything interesting here, unfortunately. I would imagine- I'll wait until January and I see a little more of all these teams. I would imagine same applies here to nationality of winner.
37:29
England plus 150, Spain two to one, France plus 475, so on and so forth. Yeah, I mean, the top couple you could maybe talk me into just 'cause you have more teams.
37:40
I mean, France, you're really just talking PSG, so just take PSG if you like that. Germany, you're really just talking Bayern, so just take Bayern at a better number if you like that.
37:48
I mean, England does have, you know, you could squint and make a case for up to four teams probably. In Spain, it's like two and a half, depending on how you feel g- about Athletico.
37:57
So those aren't, I don't hate those, but again, this point in the season when I've barely seen any of these teams, I'm not looking to jump on any of them.
38:05
Patrick Kelly reporting that, uh, Bruges immediately goes from plus 155 to plus 150. Starts in five minutes. Oh. There you go. Yep. Paul Carr moving things. Answer your bets then. Paul, thank you as always.
38:16
Well, I guess we'll talk to you later in the week for the Prem, yes? S- sounds good, yep. Let's do it. Paul Carr, everybody, @PaulCarr. Again, True Media Networks is where he does his thing.
38:24
Very excited for his Dolphins to embark on what will be- Oi. Oi. That's it. Yeah. That's his review of the Dolphins, oi. [laughs] Uh, their season of course kicks off here in Las Vegas on Sunday. Thank you, Paul.
38:38
Appreciate it
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