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Sep 9, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 9, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 9, 2026
00:00
42:03
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Transcript
0:00
Paul Spor joins us now, uh, joins us now, I should say, to talk some baseball. He comes to us from Austin, Texas. You can follow him on Twitter at Spor, S-P-O-R-E-R.
0:08
And of course, he is the host of the Sleeper and the Bust podcast, does all his stuff over at FanGraphs. What up, Paul? Good morning, sir. Good morning. Thanks for having me, guys. How's it going? It's going very well.
0:18
It is the home stretch, the official, the home stretch of the Major League Baseball season. That's right. Two and a half weeks of Major League Baseball, so everybody's got fewer than 20 games left.
0:27
Give me your instinct on the closest races. Let's start with the, well, I guess I'll still consider the AL Central. That's a good one. I think Cleveland's gonna nip them at the end, and I'm kinda- Wow...
0:42
bummed about it, 'cause I like the White Sox better. But look at what's going on with that White Sox pitching. The steady Eddie, Berk, co- ab- just absolutely destroyed the other day.
0:52
Now listen, that doesn't mean it's gonna carry on, but it's, that's, that's brutal, man. That's not just a bad game. That's season ruining. Like, that's fantasy season ending. I, I speak from experience on that one.
1:02
You know, nine earned in an inning and a third. I just don't know that they have the horses. They went out and got Castillo. I liked a lot of what, uh, the White Sox did.
1:09
All applause to them, and I hope I'm wrong on this, but I think the Guardians, they're battle tested, they've got the pitching, they win these close games. They even, uh, exploded for some offense recently too.
1:19
I think they're gonna get it. Most annoying team ever. By the way, I'm, I'm a little sorry, Yankees fans, I'm eliminating you from this discussion 'cause you're four back. Yeah.
1:26
Cleveland two back in the AL Central, two behind the White Sox. Also two back is the AL West Texas Rangers, two behind- Mm-hmm... the Astros. Who wins that? I'm gonna stick with the Astros there.
1:37
I'm I, I try to get interested in this Texas team.
1:39
We've talked about it multiple times throughout the year, but every time I line it up, put the rosters next to each other on Roster Resource, I keep coming back to the Astros.
1:48
And even just having the MVP, the best hitter in the American League, and maybe all of baseball, especially with Judge not being fully healthy, nor Ohtani. With Jordan Alvarez, um, I think I gotta go Houston there.
1:58
AL Wild Card. We, we're sticking to everything that's two games or fewer in terms of, uh, the gap. Mm-hmm. This is for the number three Wild Card position in the American League.
2:07
Will it go to the Guardians White Sox AL Central loser, the Blue Jays, or the Rangers? All within one and a half games. I think the White Sox will hold on to that.
2:18
They're gonna get got late on that division, still make the Wild Card, and then win a first round. How about that? Okay. Not the Blue Jays. Interesting. All right. Yep.
2:26
And, and then this is really a mano a mano in for, for the number three position in the National League Wild Card race. The Diamondbacks- Mm-hmm... with a half game lead over the Padres. How? How? I know, man.
2:40
I, I, I, I, I- Nobody's talking about it... good, good on them, by the way.
2:43
Good, good on the Diamondbacks, you know, and they just got Corbin Burns back, which I don't know, you know, uh, what, what they're really gonna get from him, but that's just interesting in general.
2:51
And maybe just a boost to have somebody like that walk through the clubhouse. You can't really quantify that. I am still gonna go with the Padres, though. I still think that they've got enough juice.
2:59
They got someone back, too, who I think is gonna be more impactful, Nick Pivetta. I think that's a bigger add than Burns and cancels it out. I think the Padres will get in there, sneak in at the last moment.
3:09
Um, I'm curious, do they have any games left? I don't know if you know, uh, off the top of your head. But if they have any games left next to each other, Diamondbacks, Padres, that could be an electric series.
3:17
But I am gonna lean toward the Padres there. Uh, Padres and Diamondbacks, quick glance. Yes, they play three games against each other. Three games. That should be a blast. Yeah.
3:28
And, and the real key with the Padres, why I'm going for them and why I also think if they get in, they could make some noise, is that bullpen, man.
3:34
If they can get any leads, they don't hit as for many homers as they have in the past. But if they can hit a few homers. In, in the playoffs, obviously the scoring comes down. Couple key homers, you're up 3-1, 3-2.
3:45
That game's over when you're facing the Padres. With the Diamondbacks, you're never out of it. Their bullpen sucks, and so that's one thing that even if they did get in, I real- wouldn't be all that interested in them.
3:55
But I think at the end of the day, that's gonna cost the Diamondbacks there and get the Padres into the playoffs. All right, let's play if Paul Spor had a vote.
4:00
If Paul Spor had a vote, the AL Cy Young Award winner would be? Ooh, that's a great question. I think I would go with Dylan Cease. Still? Dylan Cease still.
4:11
Over, over, over Schl- over Schl- I know he had a tough outing- Wow. Yeah... in, uh, in, uh, uh, Sacramento, I almost said. Uh, uh, Oakland. But [laughs] you know, old habits die hard there.
4:21
Uh, maybe Schl- you know, I'm looking at the numbers. It's maybe a little bit too good for Schlitter. No, I'm gonna change. I did not realize that it was quite that big of a gap on the ERA.
4:30
When you consider the ERA and the innings gap. No, no, no, let me peel back on all that Ceaseness. I, uh- Mm... I had a little bit mis- m- I was, I was misaligned with where my numbers were there.
4:39
Because it's 16 extra innings and 39 more ERA points, so that's gotta be Schlitter. Uh, my apologies on the, on the Cease call there. Yeah. I see. I see why he's that odds-on favorite. And that's the Tango formula.
4:49
It's like we could talk about all these other things, but the Tango formula is correct usually because it comes down to those baseball card stats, right? Yes. It's just that simple.
4:57
I still am amazed, though, that Schlitter is a bigger favorite over Cease than Miz is over Sale. Like, I can't believe that. Well, like, I, I hear what you're saying because of Miz being just so unbelievably remarkable.
5:11
Sub 2 ERA and all that. But that is such a tight race there that I, I kinda get it. And again, Schlitter has a huge edge, whereas one bad, like Miz bomb, you know, which doesn't happen very often, if at all.
5:25
But if he Miz bombed and then Sale Sanchez, or Nails the rest of the way, Sale specifically, I know he's the one that's right behind him, the gap could be closed. You're talking 195 to 210 on the ERA.
5:36
Um, the innings are only 11 innings there. So I, I see why that's like that. I, I'm actually gonna agree with the odd makers on that- Ooh... uh, for Miz being tighter with Sale than Schlitter is on Cease.
5:46
Except for the fact that Miz is first in everything Major League Baseball. He's on... Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it, it's, it's unbelievable. But again, it's precarious. Yeah. Relatively.
5:54
Again, relative to Cease, Schlitter, it's precarious if he were to suffer one bomb outing, Mizyrowski. I don't expect that to happen.
6:03
But if it happened, and then say that same night Sale threw a shutty Boom, all of a sudden they're, they're right there. Um- And so that's why I think it's that close... AL Manager of the Year and NL Manager of the Year.
6:15
We were actually doing a deep dive on this earlier in the week. Ooh. What would be your thought on both of those? We can flash up the odds if we can find a photo. You know- I don't think we have them there...
6:24
y- y- you said if I had a vote. Yes. So this is not so much picking the winner here. I wanna be clear on this one.
6:30
Because I think I'd go for the Pirates manager, and I'm such a piece of garbage I don't even know, rem- oh, it's Don Kelly. Okay. [laughs] I, I blanked there for a... A former Tiger.
6:37
[laughs] Oh, how dare I even stutter on him for a moment. Uh, but I think I would go Don Kelly. I feel so terrible for him and Pirates fans.
6:45
They get everything to go right except the one thing that was guaranteed to go right this year. Mm. Quote, unquote, "guaranteed." Right. Right? Skeens. Yeah. You come into this year and you say, "We have an ace.
6:56
He is guaranteed if everything comes around him, we could make some noise." They're making some noise, and he's not been bad.
7:01
I'm not, I'm not, uh, clowning Skeens here, but he hasn't been Skeens that we saw the last two years. They get so much to go right around him.
7:10
He ends up having his worst year yet, and they're gonna be on the outside looking in. I'd give it to Don Kelly. I love what Pittsburgh's done, and I think they are on the rise.
7:18
By the way, just to let you know, Pat Murphy is the short shot, and he would be the first- Makes sense... manager to ever have a three-peat Manager of the Year- Wow... uh, award.
7:27
And then in the American League it is Will Venable of the White Sox. Yeah, that's my pick. Who is the- Venable with the White Sox. He would be your pick also. Yeah. He'd be your first.
7:33
I, I, and I go, you know, I, I see them as parallels, uh, White Sox and Pirates, the way they're on the come up. Teams that have been bottom feeders for years. Both really made moves this year regardless of what happens.
7:43
If the White Sox got kicked all the way out, they'd still have a fantastic season. Again, I think they're gonna make the playoffs. And the Pirates, even being on the outside looking in, have had a wonderful season.
7:52
Lots to build on. So I like both of those Central managers. But yeah, Pat Murphy's almost surely gonna win it. And last thing for those betting on the Triple Crown.
7:58
Jordán, Jordán now trails in homers by one and RBI by two. Is he winning the Triple Crown or it's done? He, he, he's gonna get it. He's gonna get it. He's, he's gonna get it still? Yeah, yeah. Oh, wow.
8:07
He's Jordan Alvarez, baby. Air Jordan. [laughs] It's... By the way, it's a great, it's great reasoning. He's Jordan Alvarez, baby. Hell, yeah. I, uh, that's great reasoning. Don Kelly not even listed anymore.
8:16
I, I love that Paul Sporad doesn't instantly recall an MLB manager's name. Thank you, Paul. Appreciate it. Take care, guys. Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more.
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9:01
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9:08
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9:23
They always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Hour number three of the Numbers Game at VSiN.
9:32
eSports betting network, vsin.com, Gameplus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, SiriusXM channel 189. It's Gil Alexander. Already mumbling over the intro.
9:42
It is the star of Wishnev Wednesdays, the star of the Beating the Book Megapod, the star of the Showtime docuseries Action, Todd Wishnev in the flesh. A lot of flesh, by the way. Toddy, how you doing, man?
9:54
@TWishnev, by the way, on Twitter for everybody. Sir? Well, I was trying to find some shaded courts because, so yesterday I come into Las Vegas- Here it is... and Gil's like, "What do you wanna play right now?"
10:05
Here we go. And I said, uh, a- and he goes, "Are you sure you're gonna be okay in the heat?" I'm like, "I've been playing tennis all summer in Pittsburgh. Are you gonna be okay?"
10:12
So we s- we start playing, and the score is 6-0, 3-0, and my good friend here to my right is practically dying.
10:20
[laughs] So I just said, "Okay, look, we, we should, we should continue tomorrow because y- you're just not gonna make it."
10:27
So it's funny that he was concerned about my wellbeing, whereas, uh, he was the one who was- Since this is a betting show, if you delved into the box score what you would see, though- [laughs]...
10:36
a guy that has played thousands of tennis matches this summer. I have played none. The fact that I got to deuce more than 50% of the time really- You didn't get to deuce more than 50% of the time...
10:45
really should, really should tell bettors- Y- you didn't get to deuce... the be- the better athlete- You got to deuce twice... the better athlete is going to win... in 10 games. Okay, already you're interrupting me.
10:54
Why did I let you talk? Well, because you're inaccurate. I let you talk for 90 seconds straight, but you can't let me finish a- Because I didn't say anything inaccurate. Oh, I can't do it. [laughs] I can't do it.
11:02
This is, this is not a podcast. This is national radio. By the way, you better bring your Jugowar [laughs] 'cause it's gonna be hot out there today.
11:07
Next thing you're gonna tell me I don't know when Rosh Hashanah is, and that's a whole nother subject. Anyway, football. Football. The National Football League. Who's excited? I heard Willie Hill is very excited.
11:20
You asked him what does he get most excited about as an adult. Yes. And I was like, "Whoa, slow down, Willie. This is a family show." Sports related. Sports related. But I couldn't agree with him more.
11:30
I mean, college football starting was so exciting, even though I'm doing poorly so far, but it's just so fun to have it back. And Sonny Cumbie kicking field goals up 77 to three- [laughs] I brought that up...
11:42
with seven minutes to go. Uh, Sonny, what are you doing? You're supposed to run the ball into the line and give it back to them. These college coaches, man. It's 77 to three, brother. Zero class.
11:54
I had under 83 and a half and under 86 and a half. So he kicks the field goal to go up 80, 80 to three, and the other team, Northwestern State, drives down and kicks a field goal to go 80 to six.
12:05
So I end up winning the under 86 and a half, but on Discord I put up the, the part that was the under 83 and a half, so I end up losing that. Okay.
12:11
Can I give you, for those who are just tuning in who have no idea who you are despite the intro Is your, you are, he's the man that had 187-unit college basketball season, despite some haters trying to disparage him about it and act like he didn't do it.
12:24
Um, is the Discord going to be open for football season- I-... for people to join? I have to do the research on what happens when we get to 2,500 members, because we're close to 2,500.
12:35
And for s- when we went over 2,500 last year, there was some weird thing where you had to type in "add everyone" or something, and I'm not sure I wanna do that. So I'm not positive yet.
12:44
I'll, I'll make a determination soon. Okay. Thanks for dressing up for this appearance, by the way. I appreciate that. Oh, I'm gonna wear my nice Pitt. This is my beautiful Pitt.
12:51
Thank, uh, one of my Discord people, you know, sends me free, uh- Oh... a college, uh, a apparel because- Gear... he's in the college gear business, and, uh, that's Rich, really nice guy from LA. Okay.
13:02
So I've got a Pitt shirt, I've got a Yukon shirt for button-down people. Okay, I don't need to know about your whole wardrobe. Yes. But okay, that's fine. Mm-hmm.
13:08
Let's go to, let's go starting t- with tonight's NFL game, because people are going to be curious to get your thoughts on each of these. Because on the, on the Megapod, we have our format.
13:16
By the way, Beating The Book Megapod, uh, available where all podcasts are distributed.
13:20
Let me just say, Todd Wishnev has been on more episodes than anybody else now through the years as a co-host, and, uh, it is still a monster. Great feedback on the Megapod.
13:28
Uh, you know, both positive and negative, but still people are listening, and that's all we care about.
13:33
Todd's trying to [laughs] Todd's trying to make it so that people don't listen, but still people are listening, so we appreciate it. Let's start with the Patriots and the Seahawks tonight.
13:39
This, this spread is down to three since the Megapod on Tuesday. Y- you know- On Monday, I should say... you and Will both picked the Seahawks, and I, it was, I had it written down to be one of mine as well.
13:48
But I know not to pick the same team as you guys when, 'cause when all three of us are on the same team, it tends to go wrong. So I decided not to go with the Seahawks.
13:58
But I mean, every argument that you guys have made seems to make sense to me that, what is the difference here?
14:05
So I'm just gonna pass for now on Th- Now by the way, what's interesting is in the past, I've really done way more in-game on NFL and very little pre-game.
14:14
But now with the prediction markets knocking things down, instead of having to pay the 110, maybe you can pay 102 or 103, I might, you know, play some of those pre-games.
14:25
Because if I would've just played my pre-game for the last four years on the Megapod, which is widely available numbers, Stevie Fezzik, on Thursday mornings, okay, I'd be well, well ahead.
14:36
Even you would, because you had that great season- Yeah... where you went 35 and 18. Everyone was shocked when Willy w- uh, when Gilly went 35 and 18. Why, why, why is that logical, sir?
14:44
Just because it's a really amazing record. Yeah. 35 and 18 for anyone is an amazing rec- even a genius like yourself. [laughs] Okay? So my point is, is had we been playing- Yeah... those picks
14:57
on the, uh, not 110 line, but a 102 line- Oh, you're right... we'd be up decently, you know? Yes, absolutely. So that's kind of interesting. Um, even though, you know. What about tomorrow night, Rams Seahawk?
15:08
Uh, Rams, uh, no, Niners. I, I mean, I li- I kinda like the Seahawks with you guys. I wanna, I'm gonna- No, no, Rams Niners tomorrow. Oh, I'm sorry, Rams Niners. Rams Niners, I don't know, I'm gonna pass on that one.
15:17
I just, too much- Are you tired of hearing all the travel stuff? I don't wanna hear any more travel.
15:20
[laughs] Well, they traveled and they had four meals, but these guys had oatmeal and blueberries, and the other team- Ugh... had, uh, it... Guys, there's not enough sample size for the travel talk.
15:32
I know it's fun to talk about the travel, but until you get a, a thousand games going to Australia, and one team shows up right in before the game, the other team, I don't think it's very significant.
15:42
But- We'll, we'll know when we know tomorrow night- Yeah... how it worked out. But that, but that won't prove anything either. And even that won't determine it either. Right. So let's pass on that game.
15:48
I don't wanna talk about that one. How about the next one? Brownies, Cleve Brownies against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jags favored by eight and a half, total 40 and a half.
15:57
I played the under on the Megapod, because I felt like, is this gonna be the same Cleveland, bad offense, good, good-ish defense? Um, I'm a little concerned with the, it's, it's maybe a real quarterback, the massage guy,
16:13
is gonna be better than Shedeur Sanders. Deshaun Watson. Right. Mm-hmm. And so that is, has me a little concerned, but I just figured it's a early first game of the year.
16:22
Jacksonville might wanna just get out of town, you know, grind it out, win, win the game. So I, I kinda like the under on that one. How about you? What do you like on that one? Uh, I'd lean Browns plus the points.
16:32
Browns, okay. But I agree with Willy. Like, if you can get anything out of the quarterback position here, the rest of the roster for the Browns d- is not Dolphins level. I would agree with that. Okay.
16:41
What's the next one? Buccaneers against the Bengals is the next game. Why do I just feel like this is gonna come down to Buccaneers down 11, Baker Mayfield drives them for the touchdown, and guess what's coming?
16:55
The two-point conversion to decide the cover. Mm-hmm. And that, that just feels like that, so I don't really want any part of that one. New contract for Baker Mayfield.
17:05
Stevie said he liked anything under 50 and a half when it's the first game of the year, and I kind of understand that, but- Just as an auto play. Yeah. Anything 50 and a half, you go under week one.
17:16
Yeah, I mean, he's been right about the college football. A lot of it has been going under. How about the next one? The Baltimore Raven, or yeah, Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colt. Yes.
17:25
I feel like there's just too much uncertainty around this game. And then what is Baltimore? Are they still the great team that we used to think they were, or have they, have they disparaged themselves last year?
17:40
Has Lamar lost a step or a step and a half? That's a great way of s- saying it. I don't know. By the way, let me, let me also say this, because you're, you're, you're famous for sort of saying we, we know nothing.
17:51
What's the sport, and let's talk about college and pro as two different sports in both basketball and football's case, what's the sport that we know, in your opinion, we truly know the least about?
18:03
Oh, college football for sure. In other words, c- it's definitely college football, right? No, it's college football. Uh, uh, these are different teams. Even be- even before the portal, though. Even before the portal.
18:10
Even before it, college football was always the one that I think if we actually analyzed what experts said before a season That's the one that has the lowest conversion rate.
18:19
And that's why I love in-game for college basketball more- Right...
18:21
than anything because, you know, they make a line, and then you're watching the first 15 minutes of the game or 20 minutes of the game, and you're like, "Well, this is completely wrong." Yeah. You know?
18:30
So, and now it doesn't happen all the time, but it's gonna happen a lot. I mean, I'm watching the, the UConn was playing somebody, and they're just going up and down the field.
18:38
And the f- and the line was kinda reasonable. It was, like, maybe, like, minus 19 or something like that. And I was like, "Okay, I'll lay the 33 and a half."
18:46
[laughs] "I don't even care, because they're gonna score a billion against this team." Yeah. You know, so I think college football, in my opinion, has the most of that. Yeah, it reveals itself very quickly- Yeah, yeah...
18:56
once, once they're on the field. All right, next one. Um- 'Cause you didn't give us much on the Ravens-Colts, so let's go, let's move on. I didn't, I didn't really- Yeah...
19:02
I don't- Well, that, that's good to know- Yeah... that you don't have. Yeah. Yeah. It is fair to say in week one, I have no idea. Falcons-Yinzers. Okay, let's talk about that. First of all, we got a problem.
19:13
Parking is gonna be real expensive down at the Rivers. Yeah. Now, let's all go back to the NFL Draft. They had the NFL Draft in Pittsburgh right next to the cas- the, the stadium, which is right next to the casino. Okay?
19:25
That's C-A-S-I-N-A, casina. Mm-hmm. [laughs] So they wanted to charge $150 a day to park at the Rivers. This offends you more than anything. Well, it didn't just offend me, my friend. Yeah.
19:39
Because what ended up happening is I went down there the first day. I, I wasn't gonna pay... Now, I never pay for parking, 'cause I have a, I have a card.
19:47
But on that day, they weren't even gonna honor the cards, and I was not paying $150. Let me guess, parking lot was empty. I parked, like, a 10-minute walk. I walk down there. [laughs] He does, he does this.
19:58
I get to the casino. Yeah. There's nobody in the casino. There's nobody in the casino. It is deaded. A couple day, one day later, they go up on Twitter, "Oh, uh, forget it. We're not charging for the parking.
20:12
We're, we're backing off. Uh, there's no more charging for the parking." Th- the sportsbook guy told me it was the deadest couple of days in the casino since COVID.
20:24
Is the Falcon- Since- Is the Falcons-Steelers handicap coming up right now? Yeah, it is coming. Oh, okay. Since COVID. Yeah. So basically what they did is they, nobody came.
20:32
There was 400,000 people, you know, 200 yards away, and nobody came because- Yeah... of this whole parking thing.
20:37
But you're also, you're also Michigan on the other side, because it w- there'll be a game at, like, the Thomas & Mack here in Las Vegas, and you wanna park on Tropicana- Right...
20:44
just 'cause 20 buck- Because my dad taught- 20 bucks offends you... my dad taught me that you don't pay for parking. It is just obscene, and now it has gotten ridiculous. Well- I'm sorry...
20:53
well, folks, I guess there's a Falcons-Steelers handicap- Yes... actual handicap coming up after the- Let's talk about the Falcons and the Steelers. Well, what we got, well, we have a break. Oh, we got a break?
21:01
This is not a podcast. Yes, sir. Oh, okay. Todd will, will rejoin us on the other side. I am curious to hear what you have to say about this game, 'cause Tua, man, starting by default.
21:12
Todd can be followed on, uh, Twitter @twishnev.
21:15
The Discord, he's gonna figure it out, if people can, uh, people wanna join in on his bets that he puts up on the Discord, which during college basketball season and college football season is really s- but especially basketball season, is really a, uh, a sight to behold.
21:30
Plus 187, baby. I did decent in football. I think I was, like, around plus 12 and plus 10 in the college and the, in the NFL last year. How was, uh- There's a lot less games, obviously...
21:39
how's baseball and the WNBA going? Baseball, I was up 35 units early, and it was fool's gold, because now I'm down, like, 20 units, and I knew it was gonna happen because a- a- at, baseball is just so hard.
21:51
Last night you had the, uh- And-... you almost gagged another one with two outs in the bottom of the ninth.
21:54
Dude, I lost four games with two outs and two strikes in the bottom of the ninth, including the San Francisco Giants winning nine to three in the bottom of the ninth. Oh. It's just unbelievable.
22:03
But anyways, I did warn everybody over and over, bet much smaller in baseball. Mm-hmm. The WNBA was doing really well.
22:09
I was up, like, 20 units, and then I went on a really bad losing streak, so I'm only up a couple units now in WNBA. But I do feel like I'm getting better and better at WNBA. Who is in the WNBA championship?
22:20
Should people be betting a Lynx matchup with somebody, or no? I'm not sure. I was really high on the Lynx, and then they had a couple stinkers, like against The Dream, that was really a little scary there.
22:32
Um, you know, uh, The Dream has a lot of talent, and, uh, Angel Reese, you know, and people's screaming, "Oh," the me bounds and everything. She really is good at rebounding the basketball, and sh- defending and stuff.
22:46
So people are a little bit... They're, you know, they're a little over the top on her. Admit it, admit it. You are Team Angel Reese, and you hate Caitlin Clark. No, I, I, I actually like them both. I, I- Okay...
22:57
I enjoy both of them. Hmm. I just don't like it when Willie just joins the political narrative- [laughs]... that has nothing to do with sports. It's like, okay, you wanna talk about politics, talk about politics.
23:06
This is about sports, okay? Well, you gotta, well, you gotta throw Will under the bus. Well, because he's, he's buying into the whole narrative, you know? Yeah.
23:12
Like, "Oh, they're so mean to Caitlin Clark," and all that nonsense. It's like, come on, guys. It, they, they beat the hell out of every girl in the league. It's a physical league. I can show you- Yeah...
23:21
a million cases of two Black girls in the WNBA- Okay... killing each other. All right. Let's go back to the NFL. [laughs] It's, you're gonna step in it. Let's go back to the NFL. What other games on Sunday interest you?
23:34
Uh, what other games? Oh, we were talking about the Yinzers. Oh yeah, let's, let's close that please. I mean, l- right off the top, I know the Falcons are bad. I know it's bad and everything.
23:45
The Steelers really good enough to be laying three and a half points in National Football League games? I don't... I, I don't, I can't, I can't- You're a lifelong Steelers fan. You are not bullish on this team.
23:56
Mike McCarthy, come on. W- all of a sudden he's great? W- what's so great about Mike McCarthy? Can somebody please tell me? Hmm. I mean, what, he went to the Super Bowl in 2011 and beat the Steelers.
24:07
With a prime Aaron Rodgers. Right. And then since then, was he not the Cowboys coach, and- He was... did he not make a mess of things down there? I don't know if it was him specifically, but yeah.
24:17
Okay, I, I'm not big on that one. I'll, I'll pass on that. Uh, the Bills- So-... and the Texans... so you are, you are cautioning people to just casually lay the points with the Steelers?
24:26
I mean, I don't really wanna lay the... I, s- I can't, I can't. I'm gonna pass. I can't. Okay. All right. Bills and Texans- Marquee matchup of Sunday... hmm. Hmm.
24:36
After these two games to- tonight and tomorrow night, this is the big one on Sunday. Hmm.
24:40
I mean, you're gonna get all the Texans are the greatest defense since the, uh, New York Giants in 2000- We got a lot of that this summer... I mean, uh, Baltimore Ravens in 2000. I mean- That's right.
24:49
This, this is the thing. Before the season, everyone gets crazy. In fact, my biggest pet peeve- Yes... is this whole Minnesota Vikings with Kyler Murray.
24:57
And by the way, I agreed with the point when it first came out was that Kyler Murray could be a big upgrade at quarterback for Minnesota. Mm-hmm. But then it gets overdone.
25:06
Everybody and their brother jumps in, and all of a sudden they move Minnesota from being not so good to a little bit better to now they're a wildcard team, now they're a divisional winner. Yeah.
25:15
Now they're a Super Bowl winner. Slow your roll, guys. We know Kyler Murray's gonna be a little bit better, but do we know all this other stuff? Let's slow down. He's still 5'4" or something, right?
25:26
[laughs] I don't think that's his height, but yes, I understand what you're saying. Okay. Yeah. So I'm just saying. And people get... And that's the thing in the NFL. That's where, where there is advantages.
25:34
And I feel this, by the way, and you might, you might agree with me. 5'4". I remember driving down to the casino last year. The Jets were playing the Cowboys. I was listening to Stormy and JVT with Derek. Mm-hmm.
25:45
And they were talking about how the line is crashing against the Cowboys because four offensive linemen are out. Now, this was the entire narrative, right?
25:54
Meanwhile, all the talking heads, not, not these guys that I'm talking about, but all the talking heads w- would say, "Oh, all the, the linemen are out."
26:02
Do they know one backup lineman and how good they are or anything about it? That's right. No, they don't. So- That's always Bob's point, by the way, Dr.
26:10
Bob, when he was talking about, like, Phil Steele's college football. "Oh, they're returning nine linemen." And Bob's point was always like, "Are they good?" E- exactly. And so what happened in that game?
26:19
Cowboys won by a million. Yeah. And, and I feel like in the NFL you get this group think sometimes where every... And by the way, I wasn't disparaging JV. They were just t- discussing what the line was.
26:29
They weren't saying whether you should do it or not, so I'm not disparaging them. I, yeah, I'm trying to figure out why you w- well, yeah.
26:35
No, I just wanted to make sure that you, no one thought I was saying they were doing it. Right.
26:38
I, they were just de- describing what was happening, that all the money was coming on the Jets because all the geniuses like Stevie were all like, "Oh, 8 million," you know- [laughs] "... linemen are out," you know?
26:48
All the geniuses like Stevie. Right. Right. Yeah.
26:50
So my, my point is, and, and I feel like it's the same thing with this Kyler Murray thing, and it's the same thing with a lot of these narratives you get rolling, sports talk has to talk about something.
26:59
So they'll- Yes... they come up with, with stuff, and then they gin it up, and it rolls into a snowball that you can take advantage of on the other side.
27:06
Well, it's the, it's the reason why the NFL has the most recency bias of any, of any sport in the market.
27:12
Because everybody, if we look out in this casino right now, even people playing the slots, whatever, we just go out on the street here in Fr- on Fremont Street, everybody has an opinion about the NFL.
27:22
Everybody knows, right? They're sure of themselves. But it's not only that. They take an, a good point, and then they turn it into- Mm-hmm... a much bigger point, and I think sometimes that moves the line.
27:34
So you think the Minnesota Vikings will be a, a decent football team, but not a division winner? Well, it's just like this week. Let's look at this week. Minnesota Vikings are minus one over the Packers.
27:44
Everyone's down on the Packers. Everyone's loving on the, on, on the Vikings. Why? The La...
27:49
The Packers were in the playoffs last year, folks, and were winning, I believe, by more than two touchdowns in their playoff game, and they gaffed it away to the Bears. Am I correct in that?
27:58
Was in the playoffs last year? They were up, like, 21-6 late. The... Oh, we're talking about the Vikings now? The Packers. Oh, the Packers. Yes. Yeah. Uh-huh. Okay.
28:05
So they're a playoff team that easily could've been into the second round. Now, the Vikings didn't do anything, right?
28:11
Now, granted, they didn't have the quarterbacks and, and that's why everyone's getting excited about it. But should they be the favorite against the Packers right off the bat like this? All right.
28:19
So tell everybody what your three mega pod picks were for this week. I, I believe I took the Packers. Uh-huh. Uh, plus the one.
28:26
I did the under 40 and a half in the Browns game, 'cause I just felt like if we see typical Browns football, which is not great offense and good defense, we could have a slowish game that's, you know, 27 to 10 or something like that.
28:39
So I took that one under 40. I think I got it under 40 or and a half or something, 41, somewhere in that range. And then what was the other one that I did, was the... Do you remember?
28:48
I do not remember, but you, you jot them down as the court stenographer. Yeah, so I could just tell you. You were going to take Seahawks, but because Willie and I took them, you did not. Right. You guys took Seahawks.
28:57
But you lean Seahawks. Oh, right. So I took, uh, the Lions, right. Okay. So that was another one. This is another- This was a, this was an anti-Saints... this is another narrative. Yeah.
29:03
It's a n- It's so funny that we keep talking about these narratives, but it, it sounds like to me all this Shuck love- I don't get it... I watched all these games. Shuck's not good. Yeah.
29:15
W- why is all of a sudden he gonna be good? Please. I, I mean, I'm willing to be sold the narrative. Tell it to me. I've been saying all year, I say he is woefully inaccurate 20 yards down the field.
29:25
Well, they said something about he played great at the end of the... Did he play great at the end of the year? They, they won a lot of football games down at the end of the year. Against who? Again, exactly. Nobody.
29:33
Nobody. Right. Generally. Exactly. Yeah. So now you're telling me that they're gonna be... Maybe they will be a little bit improved. Maybe they will be.
29:40
Are they good enough to go into the Detroit Lions, who now are coming off a season where they, you know, underperformed after they lost Ben Johnson, but they're still a very good team?
29:50
And you know they're gonna be pissed, because everyone's talking about how Ben Johnson was the reason that they fell apart. They didn't, no longer had him.
29:57
I still remember Detroit Lions handing off and getting gash runs with Montgomery and Gibbs and everything, and now granted it's just gonna be Gibbs, but Gibbs is fantastic. And then if you protect Mr.
30:07
Goff, he's a good quarterback. If he's inside protected, he's a very good quarterback. If he's outside unprotected, he's terrible. That's right. But inside, are the Saints really gonna get to him?
30:18
It's seven points, folks. That d- that doesn't sound right to me. So I, I, I did take the Lions. But again, and, and if you can see a theme here, it seems to be... And here's, here's another. Miami Dolphins, Raiders.
30:31
Now, I know. You just said it. I just heard you say that they have more than 10% of the players- Yes... are just pickups off the street. Off the final cuts. Okay. So they're probably gonna stink, right? Yeah.
30:41
But the Raiders aren't good, guys. Now you're gonna lay three and a half in an NFL game with the Raiders? Did I miss something and the Raiders became good? Hmm. Kirk Cousin... Oh, wait, they got Kirk Cousins.
30:54
Oh, you love Kirk Cousins. The last time we've seen Kirk Cousins, and we saw him for many years, he cannot move, guys. He looks like you on the tennis court. Oh, here we go. Bringing it full circle. Okay. Is it true?
31:05
All right, your time has come. You gotta go. Todd Wishnev, everybody, @TWishnev- Just be careful taking the Raiders is all I'm saying... @TWishnev on Twitter. See you in a half hour.
31:15
Coming back, Matt Brown, all his week one thoughts next. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. This podcast is sponsored by Talkspace. Last year, I went through many different life changes.
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32:25
Matt Brown joins us now. Uh, he is in Circa Grandisimo, entry $100,000. And, uh, we are told he was on Follow the Money with Mitch and Paul yesterday and, and Derek telling the story.
32:37
I was not- Matt joins us now- No, I, I-... courtesy of the Progressive guest line. Oh, Matt wasn't on. They were telling the story. No, no, no. Okay. [laughs] No, no, no. This is, this is, this...
32:44
I, come on, I, I was not gonna cheat on you guys. Come on, I was never gonna do that. There's no cheating. [laughs] There's no cheating. By the way, Matt Brown, M2 on Twitter. What is the story?
32:52
How, how did you end up in Grandisimo? Yeah, so, um, I messed around a little bit last year.
33:00
I kicked the can around a little bit, to kick the tires I should say, to, to see if anybody was interested, and it didn't really pan out. But I, I was super interested in getting in the contest, and so whatever.
33:10
Didn't, didn't work out. This year came around and, um, [laughs] we- we're at Circa, and if anybody's ever been there late night, Gil, you really should take up drinking because it, it really- [laughs]...
33:20
things, weird things happen. Like, you, you really should take up drinking, like, for, for sure. Um, like, things happen, you know, like, like as, as the night progresses at Circa.
33:28
And so next thing you know, uh, Ray O from Detroit, uh, who is one of my partners in, in this, uh, really wants to get in Grandisimo. And then, uh, Derek, uh, is like, "Hey, man, come up here.
33:41
I got, I got somebody I want you to meet."
33:42
And so I come up there and I meet Ray, and it's like he's in Grandisimo, and he's like, "I think you're familiar, familiar with this guy," and like, you know, blah, blah, blah, and sells me.
33:51
And anyways, ends up being DJ LeMahieu from, uh, from, from LSU, professional baseball player- Wow... and- Wow... and, and all of that. And, um, so we sit there and kinda like, you know, shoot the breeze a little bit.
34:04
Obviously LSU... He, he's younger than me, but you know, we, we were able to, to, to hit it off and, and all of that. And it's like, so he's like, "Yeah, I'm in."
34:14
And, um, they're like, "We're, we're looking for, you know, a captain. We're looking for somebody who knows what they're doing."
34:20
Also, I should mention Rob Baker from Project Barbecue right there, you know, like right there at Circa, whatever, he is also in as part of the team.
34:28
And then an undisclosed other former baseball player is also part of the...
34:35
Whether he wi- wa- wants to be revealed at some point, we will, we'll, we'll figure that out, but I'm not at liberty at this point to, to, to say anything. Um, so- I hear it's Rick Ankiel. I was just about to say. Yeah.
34:44
Yeah. Yeah. [laughs] Um, so anyway, uh, full disclosure though, I mean, again, I'm only... I'm in, I'm only in for 12 and a half percent. Uh, it's not a full quarter. That's all right. There are five of us.
34:54
There, there... So I'm in for 12 and a half. Um, uh, Rob is in for, for 12 and a half, then DJ's 25, and then Ray O from Detroit is, uh, in for 25, and then undisclosed baseball player in for, for 25.
35:09
So we've got our little team here. What's the name of your entry? And, um- Do you even tell us the name of your entry or no? Yeah. We are 30,000, we are 30,000 short because, um, at the...
35:18
As we were doing the math that night, we had come up with $100,000. But then like Saturday morning, we realized we were, we were actually 30,000 short [laughs] of the $100,000.
35:30
And then so that's when me and Ray kicked in, because we were both in for 10% at f- the night before, and then we kicked in an extra two and a half percent.
35:38
And so, and then they went and found another person for the, for the 25%, but we thought it would be funny to be, you know, thir- 30,000 short because we woke up Saturday morning and we were actually 30,000 short of an, of a, of an entry.
35:51
All right. I'm sure Derek would've gone for it. Yeah. Be like, "Hey, you helped put this together. Sorry, we're 30K light." Sure. "You gotta take it." All right. Well, we're rooting for you. We really are.
35:59
I appreciate it. 30,000 short. Yeah. Now, week one in the National Football League, where do we begin, sir? Where, what, what caught your attention? What have you bet?
36:06
Yeah, so y- you know, this is kinda one of those where we... The lines have been out for so long, so I, I, I will put this in the context of what you can bet today. I still like the Vikings as short favorites.
36:17
I got them as short dogs where this thing opened up. But if you kinda look at the Packers' situation here, they're gonna be coming in a little beat up to start the season.
36:26
Certainly it's a big deal to not have Parsons out there. Honestly, I'm kinda buying the, the purple Kool-Aid here a little bit too. I mean, I'm not 100% positive that Kyler Murray is completely washed.
36:36
I mean, think of the quarterbacks that we have seen over the last few years that we thought were completely washed and get into a good situation. Let's look no further than Daniel Jones last year, Sam Darnold.
36:47
All these guys get into good situations and then maybe actually find-... that, that extra gear a- and live up to their potential a little bit. And let's not forget, this receiving corps is awesome. Yeah.
36:59
I mean, he's throwing to Jefferson, Addison, and everyone forgets they signed Jauan Jennings. Like, their third wide receiver- Yeah... is Jauan Jennings. So I mean, like, this is a real...
37:08
And, and Hawkinson at tight end. I mean, this is like a, by far the best team that he has played for and by far the best coach and by far the best offensive situation. So I, I like this Vikings team.
37:17
Even at short favorites I got them as, as short dogs. And then kind of a piggyback bet on this one is Kyler over 22 and a half rushing yards. He's healthy.
37:25
He is, he is going to have a defense that's going to have to account for all of these receivers and stuff, and basically aren't gonna be able to spy on him as much. And I think not only that.
37:34
You look at Kevin O'Connell, I truly believe he is one of the better offensive minds in all of football. And yeah, he, he, he was able to do crazy things with Sam Darnold.
37:43
But let's be for real, Sam Darnold not fleet of foot or anything.
37:46
Like, I think he's going to do some interesting things with Kyler Murray, including some designed run type things, and then couple scrambles here and there.
37:53
I, I like the over 22 and a half rush yards for Kyler Murray in that game, too. I like that one as well. I'm gonna be telling you on that one. Oh, I thought you wanted to jump in there. Okay.
38:01
No, I was just telling you we got week one bets from Matt. Oh, all right. Uh, the Bears. You like the Bears as well this week. Yeah. Like me some, some Bears. Um, I like the Bears at two and a half.
38:12
Then I also like Caleb Williams over 226 and a half- I like it... passing yards.
38:16
Like, when I looked at this, I kinda had this, like, much closer to 250, so I actually think there's, like, 20-plus yards here that, that is unaccounted for. And, um, the thing for me with this Bears team is I'm not...
38:29
I understand what they said about wanting to be the highest scoring team and all that. Like, uh, that, that's all fine and dandy. I just like the talent on the team.
38:35
I just like the fact that this is year two with Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams. And I think Caleb Williams really and truly does have what it takes to be a really good quarterback in the, um, in the NFL.
38:44
And I think an off-season with Ben Johnson, them working together and, and working on what he does well and trying to eliminate the things that he does poorly, and taking advantage of that really talented roster, I, I like this team a lot.
38:56
Good offensive line as well. Shouldn't be running for his life. All those different little things there. Like them a ton. Um, and then I like the Eagles as well at, uh, as four-point favorites over the Commanders.
39:07
I, I'm, I'm sure, Gil, you have come to, come to grips with what could be.
39:12
I think the f- I think that the ceiling for this Commanders team certainly could still be nine wins, maybe 10 wins, but I also think the floor could be five.
39:20
And so I, I think that this is one of the most volatile teams in all of the league. And this Eagles team, I know e- everyone wants to point the fact they lost A.J. Brown, but DeVonta Smith was a number one in college.
39:30
He can be a number one in the pros. He just didn't have to be a number one in the pros. He just needs more volume. The production is there for, for this guy whenever he was getting the targets and all that.
39:38
So I'm not really too worried about that. And this defense is still very, very, very good. Still a good offensive line. They still get free first downs because the tush push didn't go away. It's still there.
39:49
You get to third and one, it is an automatic first down for this team. They get to continue to move the chains.
39:54
Like, I think we're kinda selling the Eagles a little bit short, rightfully so, because they're in the same conference as the Rams, who I am madly, madly, man crush in love with. [laughs] Mm-hmm.
40:02
And I have come to grips on the Commanders. I saw the grips and I came to them. [laughs] Yeah, you've, uh, you've gone too far. I think you've go- Maybe I have...
40:09
I mean, like Matt said, I think there's still a high ceiling. But, um- Like, this team was just in an NFC championship game a couple years ago, right? Let's go, Skins. Prove me wrong, Skins. Let's go.
40:16
Okay, you have a bunch of futures. I wanna just cherry-pick two of these. We'll put them up on the screen. Sure. Falcons to win the NFC South. You still feeling good about this? No.
40:25
No, that would be the one, if I could go in a time machine- Okay. [laughs]... if I had the Hot Tub Time Machine, I would go back- Okay... and I would erase that one.
40:30
Where, that being said, I don't think any of those teams are all that good. Yeah.
40:34
So I mean, uh, I, I don't love it, and I probably wouldn't make it today, certainly after what I saw in the preseason with Tua, but I mean, it's, it's like a...
40:43
It's not as, uh, huge a level of hate as it would be in a- any other division, I think, in all of football, because I don't think any of those teams are very good. All right.
40:50
So Broncos, for those who aren't looking here, Broncos to win the AFC West, Matt has plus 225. Jags to win the AFC South, plus 245. Falcons, which we just talked about, to win the NFC South, four to one.
40:59
Eagles to win the NFC East, plus 145. Uh, Cardinals, under a half division win in the NFC West at plus 130. I think people can understand that.
41:07
Jeremiah Love, under five and a half rushing touchdowns, already banged up here at even money. This is the one I wanna talk about. It's the last one. Chase Brown, Offensive Player of the Year, 125 to one.
41:16
What's your thinking?
41:17
Yeah, so if we're buying in on this Bengals offense being, you know, one of the best in the NFL, if not the best in the NFL, which seems to be the consensus if you look at all the projections and stuff, everybody's like, "Burrow this, Chase that," whatever.
41:30
I mean, Chase Brown's gonna have to be a big part of all of that. Mm-hmm. If you kinda go in and look, when he's been healthy he has been incredibly, highly productive for this team.
41:39
And, like, maybe all these touchdowns aren't gonna be 12 and 15 yarders to Chase. Maybe they just get down and there's the old-fashioned three-yard run it in.
41:46
Next thing we do, we look up and Chase Brown's one of the league leaders in touchdowns and catching balls out of the backfield and everything else. Matt, happy football. Happy kickoff- Yeah... tonight, man. Can't wait.
41:54
Can't wait, boys. Good luck to you and Shaq in Grandissimo. Yep. [laughs] That's right. [laughs] Him and Babe Ruth- Yeah... from Grandissimo. Matt Brown, everybody
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